Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Die Rede von US-Präsident Donald Trump vor dem Kongress war voll von "Übertreibungen, Unwahrheiten und Lügen."

Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angeführte Rebellenallianz gestürzt. Die Übergangsregierung unter Ahmad al-Sharaa steht nun vor immensen Herausforderungen – wirtschaftlich, ge­sellschaftlich und politisch. Noch hat sie auch nicht die Kontrolle über das gesamte Territorium des Landes errungen; jihadistische Gruppierungen wie der sogenannte Islamische Staat (IS) bleiben eine Bedrohung. Das Vorgehen einiger regionaler und internationaler Akteure birgt die Gefahr, Syrien zu destabilisieren bzw. den Übergangsprozess zu sabotieren. Auf jeden Fall wird durch diese externen Kräfte der Handlungsspielraum der neuen Machthaber abgesteckt. Die Interimsregierung hat Maßnahmen zur Auflösung der Milizen eingeleitet, Gespräche mit den kurdisch domi­nierten Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) über deren Eingliederung in die neue syrische Armee begonnen und einen politischen Übergang angestoßen. Deutschland und seine Partner in der EU sollten eine inklusive politische Transition unterstützen und dazu beitragen, durch Sanktionserleichterungen den Weg für einen umfassen­den Wiederaufbau freizumachen. Dabei gilt es auch, geopolitische Spannungen um Syrien zu entschärfen, anstatt sie zu verstärken.

Im Juli 2024 vereinbarten die Europäische Union (EU) und die serbische Regierung eine strategische Partnerschaft im Rohstoffsektor. Für die EU ist diese Kooperation ein wichtiger Schritt zur Diversifizierung ihrer Lieferketten und zur Stärkung wirt­schaftlicher Partnerschaften in ihrer Nachbarschaft. Serbiens Präsident Aleksandar Vučić hat ein geopolitisches Interesse an der Kooperation, die er auch dazu nutzen will, seine bereits umfassende Machtstellung im Inland noch auszubauen. Die Unterzeichnung der Vereinbarung hat in Serbien massive Proteste ausgelöst. Kritiker:innen befürchten, die Umsetzung der Rohstoffpartnerschaft könne die ohnehin fragilen rechtsstaatlichen Strukturen weiter untergraben, ebenso wie die Einhaltung ökologischer und sozialer Standards. Der Fall Serbien zeigt, dass die EU in einem geopolitisch aufgeladenen Kontext die autoritäre Regierung des Landes nur begrenzt beeinflussen kann. Doch muss sie ihren Spielraum gezielt nutzen, um die Risiken einzudämmen.

As part of the CERV project (Re)uniting the East and West: Reflections on the 2004 EU Enlargement (REWEU), the South-East Europe Programme team contributed to the creation of an infographics booklet examining the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement on Greece. This visually engaging, data-driven resource explores how this historic milestone shaped both the newly acceding countries and the European Union as a whole.

Featuring infographics, charts, and graphics, the booklet presents complex information in a clear and accessible format, making it easier to understand the economic, political, and social transformations that followed the enlargement. Designed to reach beyond policymakers and experts, it seeks to engage citizens who are often left out of EU discussions by using visuals and concise narratives to illustrate key trends, challenges, and achievements. Through a blend of data and storytelling, it offers a thought-provoking reflection on the enduring impact of the EU’s largest expansion and its continued significance for Europe today.

You can read the booklet here.

Panagiotis Paschalidis, Research Fellow at ELIAMEP’s South-East Europe Programme, authored an analysis titled “The evolution of the Greek narratives on the ‘big bang enlargement’ from 2004 until today: the views of the political actors and the media” in the framework of the project (Re)uniting the East and West: Reflections on the 2004 EU enlargement (REWEU).

The project marks the 20th anniversary of the 2004 EU enlargement by examining its historical impact, benefits, and challenges through public events, research, exhibitions, and media outreach. Funded by the EU under the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme, it focuses on eight selected countries—four older and four newer EU members—contributing to contemporary EU memory politics.

In his analysis, Panagiotis Paschalidis examines the 2004 EU enlargement as a transformative event that transcended political, social, economic, and cultural boundaries at both national and international levels. Based on interviews he conducted with key politicians involved in decision-making at the time, as well as journalists who extensively covered the topic, he highlights how such events give rise to multiple interpretations and narratives shaped by diverse perspectives and thematic correlations. Focusing on historical narratives, which intertwine objective facts with subjective understandings, he explores how Greece has perceived and interpreted the 2004 enlargement from its inception to the present day. His analysis underscores the evolving nature of these narratives and their role in shaping collective memory and public discourse.

You can read the analysis here.

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The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for January 2025.

On January 15, 2025, Greece’s Ambassador to the United States Ekaterini Nassika met with the two newly sworn-in Greek-American members of Congress, Congresswoman Maggie Tamposi Goodlander (D-NH) and Congressman Mike Haridopoulos (R-FL). Shortly after they took office, both Representatives welcomed Ambassador Nassika to their offices, where she congratulated both lawmakers on their recent elections, expressing pride in their achievements and underscoring the significance of their roles in strengthening Greek-American relations.

Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th US President on January 20. Prominent members of the Greek-American community with close ties to Trump were present at the Capitol for the new US President’s inauguration ceremony. Among the attendees was Konstantina Karampatsoli, the only Greek politician at the Trump inauguration. Karampatsoli, a member of the ruling New Democracy party, traveled to Washington DC after receiving an official invitation to the event from Republican Congressman Gus Bilirakis of Florida’s 12th District. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis congratulated President Trump on his return to the White House in a post on X.

On the same day as the US presidential inauguration, US Ambassador George Tsunis’ tenure ended, with Deputy Chief of Mission Maria Olson designated to serve as the top US diplomat in Athens until the new US ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, arrives and presents credentials to the head of state. Guilfoyle is expected to assume her duties as the US Ambassador to Greece by April 2025, pending confirmation by the Senate.

The Greek Minister of National Defence, Nikos Dendias, visited on 22 January the Fort Sill Fires Center of Excellence in Oklahoma, which houses the Army’s Joint Counter-small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-sUAS) University. The Minister had the opportunity to be informed by the Commander of Fort Sill, General Major Winston P. Brooks, about academic training in the field of counteracting Unmanned Aircraft Systems, as well as about the development of state-of-the-art innovations and defence tactics for dealing with new threats. The Minister of National Defence also had the opportunity to meet with Officers of the Hellenic Army, undergoing training in modern Artillery fire directing technologies there.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Russland strebt offenbar an, vom Ladogasee aus Ziele in der Ostsee-Region angreifen zu können. Das Gewässer befindet sich nördlich von Sankt Petersburg und ist nur 40 Kilometer von der finnischen Grenze entfernt. Seit 2023 erprobt Russland dort die Stationierung von Korvetten, die mit Marschflugkörpern ausgestattet sind. Solche Kriegsschiffe haben bereits im Syrien- und im Ukraine-Krieg aus großer Entfernung Landziele beschossen. Ihr Einsatz im gut zu schützenden Ladogasee würde die ohnehin komplizierte Verteidigung der nordöstlichen Nato-Staaten weiter erschweren. Abschüsse von dem Gewässer aus sollen im Herbst 2024 erstmals simuliert geübt worden sein. Im Westen fehlt es jedoch an Informationen über den Ladogasee. Die Entwicklung dort unterstreicht, dass es der Fähigkeit zu konventionellen Schlägen ins russische Hinterland bedarf, um Moskau wirkungsvoll abschrecken zu können.

An Istanbul prosecutor has launched two legal investigations against Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, amidst a judicial crackdown on municipalities run by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The indictment charges İmamoğlu with “insulting and targeting a public official” and “attempting to influence a trial”, and demands a prison sentence of at least two years and eight months. The first hearing will be held on 11 April 2025. Finally, on 22 February, another investigation was opened against İmamoğlu, this time claiming that his university diploma was “forged”.

The legal manoeuvres only deepen concerns that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to neutralise İmamoğlu, who is currently the CHP’s strongest potential challenger for the 2028 elections. This marks a qualitative leap in Turkey’s authoritarian trajectory, a shift from merely repressing the opposition to using judicial means to systematically eliminate the most viable electoral challengers.

Towards full authoritarianism

Turkey’s political system has been undergoing a gradual authoritarian consolidation for years. President Erdoğan controls most of the media and effectively dictates judicial decisions. Turkey remains one of the worst jailers of journalists, and the government continues to suppress protests and harass civil society groups. While political rights and freedoms erode, the opposition faces growing threats from the government.

Criminalising the opposition

Kurdish opposition leaders have long been subject to repression. Selahattin Demirtaş has been imprisoned since 2016 alongside many other Kurdish politicians. A former leader of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy Party (HDP), he is arguably the opposition’s most charismatic figure. And for years now the state has been appointing trustees (kayyum) to govern municipalities won by the HDP and its successor, the Democracy Party (DEM). Mayors are removed on terrorism charges within months of their election, and state administrators take over. Terrorism charges are used sweepingly to suppress opposition leaders and civil society actors. While public attention often focuses on high-profile cases like Demirtaş or businessman Osman Kavala, millions of ordinary citizens – including teachers, academics, civil servants and small business owners – have also faced terrorism investigations. 

Despite the shrinking political space, Turkey’s electoral system has remained resilient, allowing the opposition to secure local election victories in major cities in 2019 and 2024. While political competition is increasingly restricted, the electoral process itself has been historically resistant to outright fraud.

Now, however, Erdoğan is taking steps to eliminate electoral turnover entirely. Repression that historically focussed on Kurdish politicians has now expanded to target the broader opposition. The recent prosecution of nationalist leader Ümit Özdağ and renewed legal action against Gezi Park protestors from the cultural scene signal a wider crackdown.

The targeting of Ekrem İmamoğlu

The escalating lawfare against Istanbul’s CHP mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu underscores this shift. A state trustee has been appointed in Esenyurt district in Istanbul, the first time this has happened in a metropolitan municipality outside the Kurdish-majority areas. The investigation into alleged corruption in Istanbul’s local administration appears designed to eventually implicate İmamoğlu. This is not the first time İmamoğlu has been targeted. In 2022, a trial for allegedly insulting judges was used to prevent his nomination as the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2023. 

If Erdoğan continues dismantling opposition forces the next elections may be a mere formality. He has already signalled his intention to run again in the next presidential election, despite term limits. Turkey’s political future is at a critical juncture. If Erdoğan succeeds in neutralising İmamoğlu and the broader opposition, the next elections may be little more than a sham, marking the final transition to a fully authoritarian regime.

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Through the Action for Peacekeeping and Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P/A4P+) frameworks, member states and the UN Secretariat have reiterated their commitment to collective coherence behind a political strategy as a priority within UN peacekeeping. While this is often interpreted as pertaining to national-level political processes, local-level processes are also key to consolidating peace, and there is often a close relationship between local-level and national-level political dynamics.

In this context, IPI and the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the UN cohosted a policy forum on “The Primacy of Politics at the Local Level: The Work of UN Civil Affairs” on February 25th.

The purpose of this event was to discuss how missions understand and implement the primacy of politics at the local level by looking particularly at the work of UN Civil Affairs within peacekeeping settings. It also served to launch an IPI publication on the same topic, co-authored by Jenna Russo, IPI’s Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, and Allard Duursma, Assistant Professor in Conflict Management and International Relations at ETH Zurich.

Building on the insights of the report, this forum brought together representatives of the UN Secretariat, member states, and civil society organizations to discuss how UN Civil Affairs components navigate local political dynamics and explore ways to strengthen their role in aligning local engagement with mission-wide political strategies.

Welcome and Opening Remarks:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Djeyhoun Ostowar, Counsellor, Deputy Head of Political Affairs Section, Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

Speakers:
Allard Duursma, Assistant Professor in Conflict Management and International Relations, ETH Zurich (Virtual)
Marco Donati, Team Leader Civil Affairs, Policy and Best Practices service of DPO
Hiroko Hirahara, Director of Civil Affairs Division, United Nations Mission in South Sudan (Virtual)
Eiko Ikegaya, Chief, Mediation Support and Gender, Peace and Security, Policy and Mediation Division, United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs

Moderator:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute

The post The Local-Level Engagement of UN Civil Affairs appeared first on International Peace Institute.

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah owing to Israeli military strikes and Russia’s changing priorities in the context of its war against Ukraine. At the same time, the fall of the Assad regime has led to another shift in power relations in the region. The interests, priorities and actions of regional and international actors will define the room for manoeuvre of the new rulers in Damascus. Turkey and Israel have occupied territories in the north and southwest of the country, respectively. The Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf are expected to exercise influence, too, as they will play a crucial role in the reconstruction of Syria. And the United States still maintains a military presence in Syria, although its future involvement in the country is uncertain.

The “primacy of politics” has become a central tenet of UN peacekeeping. This reflects a broad recognition that peacekeeping operations should be deployed in support of a political solution to conflict. In practice, however, the primacy of politics is often narrowly understood as referring to formal, national-level political processes. This overlooks the fact that politics also happens at the local level, both formally and informally. It is critical for UN peace operations to address these local-level politics. Local-level conflicts account for a large share of conflict-related deaths in peacekeeping contexts. They are also closely tied to national-level peace efforts. This has led UN peace operations to become increasingly involved in supporting local peace processes.

This report examines how the primacy of politics applies to the local level in UN peacekeeping settings. It highlights the indispensable role of civil affairs components in fostering sustainable peace. When effectively integrated into broader mission strategies, the localized approaches of civil affairs personnel not only address immediate conflict drivers but also contribute to the durability of national-level agreements. These efforts demonstrate that the success of peacekeeping operations hinges on balancing top-down mandates with grassroots engagement, underscoring the interconnectedness of local and national dynamics.

The paper concludes with recommendations to strengthen local political engagement in peace operations:

• Member states should adopt a definition of the primacy of politics that encompasses both formal and informal processes at both the national and subnational levels. The Security Council should also continue incorporating tasks related to local political processes in mission mandates, and the General Assembly should adequately resource these mandates.
• Mission leaders should craft political strategies that are both top-down and bottom-up. This requires consulting regularly with field offices and reflecting local dynamics in national-level political efforts. They should also ensure coordination between mission components, including civil-military coordination.
• Civil affairs personnel should systematically map stakeholders at the national and subnational levels to understand how they fit together. They should also map the political economy of local conflicts and form partnerships to target the drivers of these conflicts.

The post The Primacy of Politics at the Local Level in UN Peace Operations appeared first on International Peace Institute.