ELIAMEP

This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa.

Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine.

The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions.

The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.

You can read the policy paper  in pdf here.

The European Union’s capacity to foster democracy in its neighbourhood is increasingly constrained by a dual challenge: the pushback from authoritarian powers like Russia and China and the domestic political dynamics in partner countries. This policy report draws on granular empirical evidence and comparative analysis from five states—Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine—to seize the nuances in the approach (objectives, tools, tactics) of Russia and China and to identify patterns in how EU leverage is shaped by external authoritarian strategies and internal political conditions. The report draws conclusions about the conditions under which EU democracy promotion has the potential to be impactful when facing geopolitical challengers, offering ideas for its future design improvements.

This policy report finds that:

• The EU’s democracy promotion tools are most effective when paired with credible enlargement prospects and coherent conditionality.
• Authoritarian rivals, particularly Russia, deploy a mix of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, capitalizing on internal vulnerabilities.
• Domestic elites play a decisive role in shaping the direction of foreign alignment, often exploiting ties with Russia and China to cement their hold on power and dilute EU influence.
• Societal attitudes significantly condition the success of EU or authoritarian leverage.

The policy report argues that, beyond geopolitical competition and authoritarian diffusion, as the most common explanatory devices for the spread of authoritarianism to be found in the scholarly literature, democracy is often undermined as an “unintended consequence” of the domestic actors’ multiple engagements with external actors.

The report also concludes that democracy promotion is not merely a matter of institutional engineering but a geopolitical contest where domestic politics and external power plays intersect. The outcome is contingent on EU consistency, strategic adaptation, and the good understanding of the limitations and opportunities of the domestic political context in partner countries.

Finally, the report offers recommendations for tailoring EU democracy promotion policies in response to the challenges faced by increasingly emboldened geopolitical and authoritarian rivals. The recommendations pertain to the type of instruments the EU is fielding in geopolitically contested states, the relationship to domestic political elites and civil society in these countries, and the communication and economic instruments intended to appeal to the wider societies.

Introduction to the EMBRACE project

The EMBRACE research project (2022-25) collects evidence-based knowledge on the obstacles to democratisation and ways to overcome them in five regions of the European neighbourhood: Southern Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, Middle East and North Africa. Its aim is to strengthen the capacity of policy-makers and pro-democracy forces to develop effective strategies to promote democratic progress in the European neighbourhood. In addition to research reports and policy briefs, new policy tools for EUDP practitioners and pro-democracy activists are developed based on the project’s findings.

The EMBRACE consortium consists of 14 partner organisations based in 13 countries, and places particular emphasis on locally-led research with deep contextual familiarity and stakeholder access within the regions under study. It brings together partners with unique and complementary strengths as well as shared areas of interest, in order to foster joint learning and development.

Empirical data was gathered in twelve case study countries through a variety of research approaches, investigating episodes of political closure and opening to identify, analyse and explain behavioural, institutional and structural blockages, and the conditions under which they can be overcome. A new quantitative dataset was generated on the larger trends of EU Democracy Promotion and its effects on democratisation over the last two decades in all 23 neighbours.

The research is structured around four thematic clusters: the re-configurations for democratic policy shifts after popular uprisings; democratisation and economic modernisation in authoritarian and hybrid regimes; the nexus between democratisation and peace; and the geopolitics of EUDP and the competition that the EU encounters in its democracy promotion efforts. This report focuses on Work Package 7, which aims to understand the EU’s democracy promotion potential when confronted with geopolitical challenges by powerful and authoritarian geopolitical rivals. It analyses how all these forces interact, compete, clash or cooperate, and how such interplay raises obstacles or offers opportunities for democracy promotion by the EU.

Introduction to this Policy Report

Since the end of the Cold War, the European Union (EU) has positioned itself as a champion of democratic norms and values, using a combination of economic assistance and political conditionality to push for institutional and political reforms in target countries. These efforts are particularly pronounced in regions such as the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, and North Africa—areas characterized by fragile institutions, hybrid regimes, and complex geopolitical alignments. As immediate neighbours of the EU, those regions have been the primary target of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and the EU enlargement process, which now covers Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in addition to the Western Balkans.

However, EU democracy promotion now unfolds in a hostile strategic environment. Authoritarian powers like Russia and China have expanded their regional footprints and actively challenge the EU’s normative agenda.  With its aggression against Ukraine culminating in a full-scale invasion, Russia has resorted to crude military power to assert its primacy.  Faced with this reality, political elites in countries next door to the EU increasingly adopt hedging strategies, playing with all external powers to maximize regime survival or economic gain. This interplay between external pushback and internal resistance complicates the EU’s ability to shape political trajectories in its neighbourhood.

This policy paper is the outcome of rigorous research on the geopolitical competition to EU democracy promotion conducted in the context of the EMBRACE project. It draws on a cross-regional comparison of five countries—Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. It highlights the limitations of EU influence, identifies the modes of authoritarian contestation, and explores how domestic political contexts determine the effectiveness of democracy promotion. The aim is not only to diagnose challenges but to propose strategies that could help recalibrate the EU’s external democracy promotion.

EU Leverage: Dense Ties, Uneven Impact

EU democracy promotion rests on a set of well-established instruments: political conditionality, economic incentives, technical assistance, and societal engagement. These instruments are operationalized through the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) for Algeria and through the Enlargement Policy for Serbia, North Macedonia, Ukraine and Georgia. All five countries in question have dense trade and investment ties with the Union, in most cases their leading economic partner, and are also linked to member states thanks to large diaspora populations. In that sense, both linkage and leverage – two variables highlighted by the literature on international promotion of democracy (Levitsky and Way 2005) – favour the EU’s role as a driver of political and institutional reform.

However, the EU’s track record is, at best, mixed.  Success is rare and setbacks common. North Macedonia and Ukraine are two cases giving grounds for qualified optimism. In both countries, the EU has demonstrated its potential to support democratic breakthroughs. In North Macedonia, the European Commission and the European Parliament played an important role in resolving the 2015-2016 political crisis, combining mediation, support to civil society, and conditionality tied to the broader EU accession agenda. Moreover, the Prespa Agreement concluded between Skopje and Athens, which resolved the long-standing naming dispute, was conditioned by the attraction of EU membership (Armakolas 2023, Bechev 2022).  However, the Europeanisation process ground down to halt in 2020 owing to new hurdles North Macedonia confronted because of France delaying, and later of Bulgaria blocking, its progress.

Similarly, in Ukraine, post-Maidan governments embarked on reforms under the impetus of societal demand, EU encouragement and the prospect of becoming a member of the 28-strong bloc. Russia’s full-scale invasion has shifted the priorities of the Ukrainian state from governance and market reform to ensuring state survival in the face of a mightier adversary.  Yet it has also propelled Kyiv further on the path to membership, with formal negotiations launched in 2024. Despite the political, economic and institutional obstacles going forward, at present Ukraine has a chance to enter the EU in the following decade. Particularly if NATO membership is off the table, accession to the Union would provide the highly desired anchor to the West that Ukrainians have pursued for at least two decades.

Yet these successes do not tell the full story of the complex landscape of EU democracy influence and other cases illustrate the limits of EU’s policies. In Georgia, despite robust public support for membership in the EU, which hovers around 80% of the populace, the government of the Georgian Dream (GD) party has slowed down (and arguably reversed) the effort to secure accession together with Ukraine and Moldova. GD gradually distanced itself from the EU, especially when democratization has threatened its political dominance. The passage of a highly problematic foreign agents’ law in 2024, inspired by legislation Russia adopted in the 2010s, coupled with the alleged irregularities at the October 2024 general elections have deepened the rift with the EU. In Algeria, the EU has largely prioritized stability and energy cooperation over democracy promotion. The 2019 Hirak protests received lukewarm support from Brussels, revealing a strategic preference for regime continuity over democratic change.

Even in the EU accession countries, conditionality is inconsistently applied. Serbia continues to slide into hybrid authoritarianism with little EU pushback. President Aleksandar Vučić has managed to simultaneously negotiate EU accession and cultivate ties with Russia and China, taking advantage of the EU’s reluctance to prioritize democracy over regional stability as well as its dire need to access critical resources. Europe’s reaction to an unprecedented wave of popular protests, which unfolded after November 2024 and demanded greater transparency and accountability, has been half-hearted at best. The outreach by Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos to pro-rule-of-law protesters has not moved the needle for the overall policy of the EU, which prefers engagement over confrontation with President Vučić.

EU credibility oftentimes falls prey to internal divisions. Member states diverge in terms of geographical focus, with some looking at Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe, others prioritising the Western Balkans while still others interested in the Maghreb, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Though the Russian aggression has helped soften such divisions by creating a sense of a common threat, they have not been fully overcome. Historically, member states have variable levels of commitment to enlargement too. While some see it as compatible with their strategic interests, others are concerned it might undermine the EU’s internal cohesion.

There are also institutional factors at play. Unanimity rules in enlargement decisions allow individual countries —such as Hungary or Bulgaria—to block or delay progress over bilateral issues or political calculations, as seen in North Macedonia and Ukraine. Though there have been multiple proposals coming from think tanks and academic researchers to reform decision-making on enlargement by introducing qualified majority voting (QMV), there is no sufficient mass in the EU Council to support such a move. As a result of all that, the EU has often struggled to deliver on promises to aspirant countries.

The experience of the countries under investigation shows that inconsistencies in EU policies, ambiguity over strategy, principles and priorities, as well as occasional failures in implementation limit the effectiveness of the EU’s democracy promotion tools. Local leaderships recognise the opportunity presented by these challenges and often devise a strategy of “pick and choose” of aspects of EU integration that suit their agenda and benefit their political, economic and strategic interests, while at the same time increasingly resist those aspects of EU ties that may challenge their authority or upset domestic equilibria. Aspects of these conclusions can be observed to a greater or lesser extent in all countries investigated. But the cases of Algeria and Serbia stand out as the ones where the ruling elites have found unique ways to make ties with the EU beneficial to their regime and its survival prospects.

Overall, the democracy promotion toolkit of the EU has the potential to foster democracy and strengthen resilience against external authoritarian pressure in aspiring countries. But the likelihood for success increases significantly when the pro-democracy policies are paired with a credible EU membership prospect and conditionality. Analysis shows that close economic, political, and institutional ties to the EU alone do not guarantee democratization, especially when the accession outlook is uncertain. Inconsistent application of democracy promotion tools or conflicting EU priorities risk undermining both their effectiveness and the EU’s overall credibility. Finally, authoritarian states—especially Russia—have shown a keen interest in shaping the democratization trajectories and undercut the EU’s positive influence on the examined countries.

Authoritarian Rivals: Strategies of Pushback

The EU is coming to terms with the fact that it is no longer the only game in town when it comes to influencing domestic politics. Authoritarian and semi-authoritarian states such as Russia, China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are growingly present on the European periphery. Of these, Russia and China are the two most remarkable cases. As early as 2008, the prominent scholar of democratisation, Larry Diamond, noted that “[the a]uthoritarian regimes in Russia and China are acting as black knights, supporting autocrats and undermining democratic transitions by providing diplomatic cover, economic aid, and sometimes even security assistance to embattled regimes.”

Russia and China are not ideologically committed to spreading authoritarianism per se, but they actively contest the EU’s influence when it threatens their strategic interests. In the Russian case, the latter include influence over institutions and elites in adjacent countries that are considered by Moscow as its “privileged sphere of influence” or its “near abroad.”   Beijing’s policies are more low-key, undermining alignment with the EU when it goes against China’s (predominantly business) interests, while increasing its political and economic footprint, but still without adopting the aggressiveness that Russia often uses. Russian and Chinese objectives, strategies and methods vary. Russia aims to blunt the EU’s – and more broadly the collective West’s – leverage, undermine its normative standing and accordingly increase their own room for manoeuvre. China, on the other hand, aims to secure allies to pursue its global agenda and opportunities to advance its economic priorities. In that context, while its objectives do not clash with enlargement countries’ bid to join the EU, Beijing’s approach is not always compatible with EU norms and standards, and it sometimes exploits structural governance weaknesses.

Russia’s and China’s strategies fall into three categories:

• • Coercion

Coercion involves the use of tools designed to compel a significant shift in the target’s behaviour. This includes direct military action or the threat of force, intervention in internal conflicts, terrorism, cyberattacks, and various forms of economic pressure such as sanctions or embargoes. These instruments are intended to impose costs that alter the target’s strategic calculus.

Russia’s approach in Ukraine demonstrates how far it is willing to go to prevent EU integration. After the 2013 Euromaidan protests and the pro-European turn, Russia responded with the annexation of Crimea, support for separatists in Donbas, and eventually a full-scale invasion in 2022. In Georgia, the 2008 war was a similar move to destabilize a reformist government and maintain influence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

• Subversion

Subversion (or soft coercion), by contrast, seeks to weaken an adversary—be it the EU, the broader West, or Western-aligned governments—from within. The ultimate aim is behavioral change, achieved through the erosion of institutions, norms, or public trust. This domain is extensively covered in the literature on “hybrid” threats, which span both overt and covert activities below the threshold of open conflict.

Russia presents many examples of subversion. It excels at using hybrid tools to undermine democratic institutions and pro-Western narratives. In North Macedonia, Russian-linked actors used disinformation and Orthodox Church networks to oppose the Prespa Agreement in 2018-2019. In Serbia, Russian-backed media outlets reinforce nationalist sentiment and scepticism toward the West. Their message is amplified by the mainstream media, including TV channels, news portals and tabloids that are linked to President Vučić. In a similar way, China has worked to undermine trust in Western-style democracy – e.g. propagating its success in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 and presenting the performance of EU members and the United States in negative light.

• Co-optation

Co-optation operates through the cultivation of relationships with domestic elites—political parties, business lobbies, media outlets, or civil society groups—to shape a target country’s foreign policy or internal choices. This approach provides external actors with channels of influence embedded within local power structures. A well-documented example is Russia’s strategic presence in the energy sector across Eastern Europe and even within the EU’s core.

Similarly, China primarily uses economic tools—investment, loans, and trade partnerships—to create dependencies and cultivate elite networks. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and bilateral deals often bypass transparency mechanisms, contributing to state capture and corruption. This strategy is evident in Serbia, where Chinese investments have expanded rapidly, including in strategic sectors like energy and infrastructure. Algeria presents a case of strategic triangulation, where both Russia and China are welcomed as partners in arms sales, infrastructure, and diplomacy. While their influence remains mostly co-optative, it offers the regime a buffer against EU democratization demands. In Georgia, the ruling party has allowed increasing Chinese economic presence and has taken a softer line on Russia since 2022, to offset the increasing EU influence over the country’s democracy and reform agenda. Strengthened ties with authoritarian countries became the counterbalance to EU’s pro-democracy influence which had the potential to undermine the power base and authority of the ruling political elites in Tbilisi.

Domestic Elites and Public Attitudes

The five cases under examination demonstrate that Russia and China are effective in countering the EU policies and influence only because they find allies within the countries. Domestic political elites early on draw the conclusion that closer ties with the EU come with policy impact that may prove challenging for the survival of their regime or the longevity of their governments. They quickly adapt to the situation, incorporate the EU impact on their cost-benefit calculations, and develop counterbalances to influence that is potentially harmful to their interests, including by increasing ties with EU’s rivals. Thus, both Russia and China often find the political circumstances in different countries ripe for increasing their footprint and unfolding their agendas.

Both Russia and China maintain strong military, economic, and diplomatic ties with Algeria while avoiding overt interference. Their influence is primarily co-optative—built on elite networks and strategic infrastructure investments—rather than subversive. Russia leads in arms sales and military cooperation, whereas China focuses on infrastructure and surveillance technology. Both actors also engage in vigorous public diplomacy, targeting Algerian media to counter Western narratives. Importantly, the role of Algeria’s regime is crucial in making the co-optative policies possible. The Algerian ruling elite triangulates between the EU and these external players to maximize its autonomy and expand its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy. This balancing act reinforces internal cohesion and bolsters authoritarian resilience.

A similar dynamic is evident in Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party prioritizes regime survival over alignment with EU democratic standards. It combines formal EU ties with growing cooperation with China and a muted alignment with Russia, especially following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While Russia exploits political polarization and institutional fragility—classic subversive tactics—the more decisive factor remains the agency of domestic actors. In Georgia as in Algeria, co-optation is the principal strategy used by Russia and China to blunt EU-led democratization, though Moscow retains also coercion as a viable tool, given its military capabilities and economic leverage.

Ukraine represents a contrasting scenario. There, Russia has long since abandoned co-optation and subversion in favour of direct coercion. Since 2014, military aggression has become the primary instrument to thwart Ukraine’s EU aspirations, overshadowing earlier tools such as economic pressure and disinformation. China, by contrast, has adhered to a strategy of co-optation, maintaining economic engagement (e.g., Belt and Road projects) while presenting itself as a neutral actor. Beijing avoids direct confrontation, diplomatically supports Russia, and carefully manages its relations with both Ukraine and the EU.

In the Western Balkans, Russia counters EU influence through a dual approach: exploiting societal divisions (subversion) and cultivating networks with local actors—politicians, civic groups, businesses, and national Orthodox Churches. Serbia offers a textbook case. Since the mid-2000s, political elites and influential societal actors have aligned with Russia. Moscow’s influence has benefited from enablers such as state capture, media control by President Aleksandar Vučić and his allies, aggressive nationalism, and the marginalization of opposition forces. As in Algeria and Georgia, Serbia’s leadership uses its ties with both Russia and China to pursue a “multi-vector” foreign policy. This strategy supports regime durability and dilutes the impact of EU democratic conditionality. In North Macedonia, Russia has deployed media manipulation, proxy actors, and disinformation—often via Serbian networks and Orthodox Church links—to disrupt Euro-Atlantic integration. Influence operations peaked in the late 2010s following the Prespa Agreement with Greece. Tactics included propaganda and intelligence-driven subversion.

In both Serbia and North Macedonia, China has pursued a quieter path. It avoids direct confrontation with the EU agenda, instead promoting economic cooperation through infrastructure projects and trade. Its involvement—often via opaque loans and non-transparent procurement—undermines good governance by reinforcing corrupt practices. During the COVID-19 pandemic, China successfully leveraged propaganda and disinformation to boost its image, often with the active participation of local actors such as President Vučić. Still, China’s approach remains firmly co-optative; subversion is rare, and coercion is not a preferred tool.

Overall, our analysis has found that significant EU influence on domestic political dynamics, including in the democratisation process, tends to be resisted by ruling elites through seeking geopolitical counterbalances. Such resistance is more effective, and EU’s influence less powerful, the more a country in question is geopolitically contested between the EU and its authoritarian rivals. Influence is also a function of the type of pressure coming from the EU. When the EU does not have the ambition to significantly influence and alter the domestic political landscape or when receiving countries already have well-established and consolidated autonomous international role and they avoid being tied to one only geopolitical option, then any influence coming from Europe will tend to be more limited. Conversely, countries and ruling elites with limited autonomous international role and less foreign policy clout are less likely to seek extensive geopolitical realignment and more likely to accept the geopolitical anchoring to the West and its democracy implications.

The autonomous role of domestic elites and their resistance to EU democracy influence tend to be facilitated and made easier by matching public attitudes in their respective countries. In every country case that we have studied, higher popular support for non-EU influence or for foreign relations that counterbalance the EU makes it much easier for political elites to challenge the conditions set by the EU and the democracy requirements that accompany EU ties. The resilience of (semi-)authoritarian elites is stronger in countries where the EU and its influence are not popular.

In contrast, the role of the economic dimension proved more complicated to gauge than what we had originally expected. Our analysis has shown that there is no straightforward correlation between economic ties and propensity to align politically or accept pro-democracy influence. Rather, what we have found is that political elites chart a policy path between economic benefits and political autonomy. Decisions are not determined by economic dependencies alone but are also highly influenced by domestic popular attitudes, historical legacies, ruling elites’ political strategies and broader geopolitical dynamics. The role of the economic dimension is dynamic and context specific, always shaped by political strategies, elite priorities and the broader societal context.

Conclusions

Across these three regions—North Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Western Balkans—several core conclusions emerge:

• Domestic factors are the primary obstacles to democratic development. Authoritarian norms, institutions, practices, and societal preferences, in combination with structural governance weaknesses, often present a complex, self-sustaining and with deep roots reality that severely challenges the EU’s ambitions for transformative influence. The EU’s transformative power, that comes through leverage (democratic conditionality) or diffusion (economic and societal linkages), can be drastically limited by the strong presence of these internal conditions.
• External authoritarian actors benefit from these domestic conditions both relatively and absolutely. In relative terms, the EU is at a disadvantage, providing rivals with a comparative edge. In absolute terms, domestic deficits—polarization, institutional fragility, underdevelopment, and state capture—create openings for external authoritarian influence. The motivations of EU’s authoritarian rivals—whether geopolitical rivalry or authoritarian promotion—are secondary to the methods used to achieve influence, as well as the outcome.
• Co-optation is the preferred method for both Russia and China. It is cost-effective and relies on partnerships with local elites. Subversion and especially coercion are riskier and more costly, potentially provoking backlash from within target states or from the EU. Coercive actions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, can have unintended consequences, including closer alignment between the target and Western actors.
• Policy Implications

The case studies suggest that democracy promotion is not a technocratic process but a political contest. The EU’s credibility and effectiveness depend on three pillars: coherence, consistency, and contextual awareness.

• Coherence: The EU must align its strategic interests with its normative agenda, and this should be reflected by all EU actors – institutions and member states. Prioritizing short-term stability (e.g., on energy or migration) at the expense of democratic values weakens long-term influence. EU and member states should also work more to have their positions and agendas aligned. Internal divisions within the EU, especially when it comes to policies and ties that have impact on democracy, tend to dilute the EU’s message, undermine its leverage and make it overall less credible and relevant.
• Consistency: Conditionality must be applied uniformly. Turning a blind eye to democratic backsliding, as for example in Serbia, undermines incentives for reform in other countries.
• Contextual Awareness: Democracy promotion must be tailored to local conditions. Where public support for EU integration is high (e.g., Georgia, Ukraine), civil society should be a strategic ally. Where sovereigntist sentiment is strong (e.g., Algeria), EU engagement must be more subtle but no less principled.

Policy Recommendations

The changed geopolitical reality and pressing need for the EU to re-assert its influence in its immediate neighbourhood mandate a bolder approach in re-imagining the EU’s democracy support. Support for continuous democratization of the EU’s neighbourhood is an investment in the EU’s own security, reducing the space for manoeuvre of EU’s geopolitical rivals and building stronger allies that will be able to resist external actors’ pressure that indirectly affects EU’s interests (e.g., reducing migratory pressures, securing energy supplies, closing enforcement gaps in sanctions/restrictive measures, reducing disloyal competition for EU and local actors et al.). This is even more important as these countries progress towards EU membership, but also as means to address current loopholes and build resilience. The improved understanding of the specific links between democratization and geopolitics should translate into targeted policy improvements in several areas:

• Step up the geopolitical game: As both Russia and China speak the language of multipolarity, the EU needs to step up the game in demonstrating that its neighbourhood is its own “sphere of influence”. On the medium to long term, this can be achieved through a credible and consequential enlargement policy. On the short term, however, the European institutions and local EU actors (e.g, EU Delegations in the neighbourhood) need to be more vocal on geopolitical topics and call foul all direct attempts by both external and domestic actors to undermine democracy and European values, membership-related reforms and alignment with the acquis.
• Streamline gradual accession in CFSP: The gradual accession, that is the inclusion of negotiating countries in specific EU-level policies and instruments before membership, should extend to the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Candidate countries with full CFSP alignment should be allowed to seat as observers in Council meetings where decisions are discussed. This will serve as encouragement to maintain full alignment, as well as incentive, through peer pressure, to candidate countries who are not fully aligned.
• Re-imagine democracy support in light of geopolitical needs: The new design and significant reduction in the volume of US Government funding has adversely affected democratization programs and projects in the EU’s neighbourhood. To mitigate the consequences, which are especially dire for civil society actors, the EU should re-design its democracy support programs in parallel with the adoption of the new MFF. While this would necessitate an increase in funding, streamlining to maximise the impact and better target the priorities is even more important, considering both the Court of Auditors’ recommendations and geopolitical challenges.
• Encourage local ownership: If they want to make progress in the accession process, candidate countries should take ownership of democracy promotion and contribute alongside the EU in supporting pro-democracy actors. While the EU should remain in charge of the rules, procedures and oversight, national governments should be asked to provide some amount of financial contribution (co-financing) to national democracy promotion programmes.
• Enhance resilience against foreign information manipulation: The EU should encourage candidate countries for EU membership to prioritise the adoption of its Foreign Interference and Manipulation of Information (FIMI) toolkit and align with the Digital Services Act, implementing stricter policies related to media and social media platforms’ control over information manipulation (content transparency, inorganic activity, state-controlled entities etc.). This should be teamed with support for media literacy programs, investigative journalism focusing on the dealings of third actors and their proxies, and media projects devising counter-narratives to the propaganda of external actors.
• Build economic resilience: The EU’s Economic Security Strategy should expand to include, both at the level of design and implementation, the countries in the EU neighbourhood. Their adoption of and alignment with specific instruments, like foreign direct investment screening mechanism or foreign subsidies regulation, have the potential to limit the economic penetration of external actors through their companies that often benefit from subsidies and/or undue practices, distorting the level-playing field to the disadvantage of local and EU companies.
• Improve strategic communication: While it cannot be expected that different EU actors, especially member states, speak with one voice on all topics of interests related to the EU’s neighbourhood, there should be clear strategic communication plans in place for each country. They should be regularly updated to identify and distinguish between (i) messages that form a clear consensus and need to be amplified, (ii) messages that may create unnecessary divisions, block democratization or empower external actors, hence need to be reviewed and addressed.

References

Armakolas, Ioannis 2023. “The Promise of European Integration: Breathing New Life into the Settlement of Bilateral Disputes”, Institute for Human Sciences – Europe’s Futures, www.iwm.at/europes-futures/publication/the-promise-of-european-integration-breathing-new-life-into-the

Bechev, Dimitar 2022. “The EU and Dispute Settlement: The Case of the Macedonian Name Issue”, East European Politics and Societies, 37 (2), https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/08883254221101905

Diamond, Larry 2008. “The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State”, Foreign Affairs, 87 (2), https://www.jstor.org/stable/20032579

Levitsky, Steven and Lucan A. Way 2005. “International Linkage and Democratization,” Journal of Democracy, 16(3): 20–34, www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/international-linkage-and-democratization/

 

The authors would like to thank EMBRACE project partners Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) and Ilia State University for analysis of country cases that informed this policy paper and Isabelle Ioannides for feedback to earlier versions of this text. The authors alone are responsible for any errors.

 

• Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises and institutionally is embedded in Western security structures such as NATO.
• However, Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to act both as a regional stabilizer and as a global mediator.

• Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy.

• From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums.

• Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms.

• Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. The protection of democratic institutions is an integral part of this framework, while two interrelated concepts are essential: economic security and open strategic autonomy.

Read here in pdf the Policy paper by Ahmet Erdi Öztürk, Non-Resident Senior Scholar, Turkey Programme and Can Selçuki, Economist and public opinion expert.

THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING a profound transformation, marked by increasing complexity and unpredictability, for a long while (Ulgen 2022). This evolution has revalidated the core assumptions of the neorealist paradigm (Hyde-Price 2015), which emphasizes power dynamics, security imperatives, and systemic uncertainty (Kessler and Daase 2008). Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 not only disrupted the European security architecture, it also destabilized global economic equilibria by triggering energy crises, disrupting trade routes, and exacerbating food insecurity (Panchuk 2024). Similarly, the protracted civil war in Libya—fuelled by multifaceted proxy dynamics—has reshaped geopolitical calculations across North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, with significant implications for energy geopolitics and maritime jurisdiction issues (Zoubir 2020). In the Horn of Africa, the intensifying competition between Somalia and Ethiopia is extending beyond bilateral frictions to reflect broader strategic rivalries involving Gulf actors, China, and the United States (Møller 2009). These regional crises have direct consequences for international capital flows, infrastructure development, and trade corridors. These developments and others have in fact led to significant changes in the foreign policies of countries with historically heightened concerns about ontological security—with Turkey first and foremost among them, both geographically and politically (Alpan and Ozturk 2025).

However, the strategic concerns of a country like Turkey are not amplified solely by the factors outlined above; there are more. For instance, the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, and Israel’s sweeping military response in Gaza, have deepened volatility across the Middle East, drawing Iran further into an escalating regional confrontation. The ensuing conflict between Israel and Iran not only represents a military flashpoint; it also poses risks to global energy markets, investor confidence, and regional financial stability. These dynamics have been further complicated by the start of Donald Trump’s second term in the Oval Office and the electoral ascendance of far-right political forces across Europe (Georgiadou, Rori and Roumanias 2018). Such developments threaten to undermine the normative foundations of the transatlantic alliance and raise fundamental questions about the future of collective security, institutional cooperation, and liberal economic governance.

Reflecting these escalating security challenges, the most recent NATO summit concluded with an agreement to incrementally increase member states’ defence expenditures to 5 percent of GDP—a significant rise from previous commitments. This decision underscores the gravity of the security environment and signals that even established alliances anticipate more turbulent and resource-intensive times ahead, heightening the pressure on member states, including Turkey, to bolster their military and strategic capabilities. Undoubtedly, this situation will affect fragile economies even more negatively. From a neorealist standpoint, this turbulent environment underscores the anarchic structure of the international system (Nedal and Nexon 2019), wherein states—faced with uncertain alliances and eroding norms—seek to maximize their relative power and security through self-help mechanisms. Military build-ups, strategic autonomy in defence production, and regional balancing behaviour have become key instruments of statecraft. Crucially, economic capacity has become inextricably linked with strategic power: fiscal sustainability, industrial resilience, energy security, and technological sophistication now shape the contours of national strength.

Source: Secretary General Annual Report, 2024, NATO, 2025 figure is an estimate

Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises, but also institutionally embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. Yet Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to function as both a regional stabilizer and a global mediator.

Against this backdrop, Turkey occupies a distinctive position—geographically proximate to the epicentres of regional crises, but also institutionally embedded in Western security structures such as NATO. Yet Turkey is more than a geopolitical bridge; it has emerged as a multidimensional actor with ambitions to function as both a regional stabilizer and a global mediator (Sofos 2022). However, there are structural constraints on the implementation of this aspiration. Domestically, enduring challenges related to democratic backsliding (Cinar 2018), institutional fragility, and economic vulnerability limit Turkey’s strategic agility. Externally, Ankara’s dynamic and multifaceted foreign policy and defence initiatives—such as the development of indigenous UAV/UCAV technologies, the KAAN fifth-generation fighter program, and participation in multilateral platforms like ReArm Europe—reflect a desire to strengthen its deterrence capabilities. Nevertheless, these initiatives often face diplomatic pushback, de facto arms embargoes, and technological bottlenecks, illustrating the gap between strategic ambition and systemic capacity.

In addition, crucially, these transformations are unfolding at a time when Turkey is grappling with mounting economic challenges, including entrenched inflation, persistent current account deficits, and waning investor confidence. These structural vulnerabilities significantly limit the scope for coherent long-term strategic planning and complicate Ankara’s ability to underwrite its regional aspirations. The erosion of macroeconomic stability—evidenced by sustained inflationary pressures, capital flight, and pronounced currency volatility—undercuts both the credibility and consistency of Turkey’s foreign policy endeavours. In this context, the country’s strategic orientation is shaped not by geopolitical imperatives alone, but increasingly by its capacity for economic resilience and adjustment.

Grounded in this comprehensive background, this paper underscores the necessity and timeliness of critically assessing Turkey’s evolving role within an increasingly fractured and multipolar international order. At a time when conventional security frameworks are being recalibrated, regional conflicts are intensifying, and the normative foundations of the liberal international system are eroding, Turkey stands at the nexus of numerous geopolitical fault lines. Its geographic position, growing defence ambitions, and assertive foreign policy posture—coupled with domestic political volatility—make it a pivotal yet paradoxical actor. This analysis is rendered particularly urgent by the convergence of multiple pressures: the militarization of regional disputes, Ankara’s strained relations with key NATO allies, its simultaneous pursuit of strategic autonomy and Western alignment, and the deepening entanglement of internal political developments with external security policies. Understanding how these dynamics intersect is essential not only for comprehending Turkey’s future trajectory, but also for anticipating broader shifts within the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security architectures. In this context, the paper offers a timely and policy-relevant lens through which to evaluate the constraints, contradictions, and strategic calculations shaping Turkey’s geopolitical behaviour.

New Dynamics in the Global Distribution of Power and Turkey’s Position

As the 21st century enters its second quarter, the global order is marked by growing volatility and systemic fragmentation. The brief post–Cold War unipolar moment, which was dominated by the United States, has given way to a fluid, multipolar system defined by geopolitical, economic, and technological competition. Central to this shift is the intensifying strategic rivalry between the US and China alongside the resurgence of Russia’s revisionist posture, the rise of far-right populism in Europe, and protracted proxy conflicts across the Middle East. Within this landscape, multipolarity reflects not only a redistribution of power but also a reconfiguration of norms, alliances, and global governance tools.

However, the global reconfiguration of economic power—reflected in evolving investment patterns, shifting regional trade architectures, and the strategic decoupling of supply chains—has also fundamentally reshaped the contours of international influence. States no , but increasingly in their capacity to mobilize capital, steer industrial policy, and withstand systemic financial volatility. For Turkey, this transformed landscape presents a dual-edged dynamic: while geographic proximity to burgeoning markets opens avenues for deeper economic integration, persistent macroeconomic imbalances continue to constrain its ability to fully leverage these emerging opportunities.

NATO’s Madrid (2022) and Vilnius (2023) summits redefined threat perceptions by framing China as a “systemic rival” and reaffirming Russia as the principal military threat. The alliance’s agenda now stretches beyond conventional defence to encompass cybersecurity, energy security, disinformation resilience, and food supply stability, reshaping what constitutes strategic power. In this new order, national influence is increasingly tethered to economic robustness, technological sovereignty, and institutional coherence, redefining how states assert agency and respond to crisis.

Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy.

Turkey’s position within this evolving global order is both advantageous and inherently paradoxical. As a long-standing NATO member, Turkey remains structurally embedded in the Western security architecture. Yet its geostrategic identity—historically, culturally, and geographically intertwined with the volatile landscapes of Eurasia, the Middle East, and North Africa—drives it to adopt a multi-vector foreign policy. This ambition for increased strategic autonomy is exemplified by Turkey’s controversial procurement of the Russian S-400 missile defence system, its growing Eurasian alignments, and its proactive diplomacy in Africa. These initiatives reflect an increasingly pragmatic and transactional orientation which is often at odds with Turkey’s formal Western commitments. However, this assertive diversification also reveals deep institutional limitations. The centralization of decision-making, erosion of bureaucratic expertise, and fragmentation of inter-agency coordination significantly undermine Ankara’s capacity to maintain strategic coherence. As a result, Turkey struggles to convert its geopolitical advantages into sustainable regional influence, oscillating between great-power aspiration and governance constraints.

From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums.

From an economic standpoint, Turkey’s position remains marked by deep-seated contradictions. While its customs union with the European Union and strategic access to multiple regional markets confer structural advantages, these are significantly offset by institutional fragility, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated geopolitical risk premiums. Over the past decade, the country has witnessed pronounced deindustrialization in critical tradable sectors, coupled with a sustained decline in total factor productivity—developments that collectively undermine its long-term competitiveness. In an era where strategic influence is increasingly predicated on economic resilience and innovation capacity, Turkey’s deficiencies in export sophistication and technological dynamism impede its evolution from a reactive player to a proactive architect of regional order.

Turkey’s economic capacity has emerged as a critical determinant of the viability of its increasingly multifaceted foreign policy. Escalating inflation, persistent currency instability, a marked decline in foreign direct investment, and continued dependence on external technological inputs have collectively undermined the long-term sustainability of its defence-industrial aspirations. These structural constraints are further exacerbated by Turkey’s substantial reliance on energy imports, rendering the country particularly vulnerable to external shocks—especially amid fluctuating hydrocarbon prices and evolving global energy alignments. Although projects such as the TurkStream pipeline and recent gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean illustrate Ankara’s intent to diversify energy sources, fiscal limitations and technological dependency have delayed their strategic benefits. Consequently, Turkey’s geopolitical assertiveness is frequently constrained by its dependence on imported high-value industrial components, raw materials, and energy.

These constraints not only limit the scope of autonomous policy execution; they also expose Ankara’s efforts towards defence indigenisation to indirect embargoes and political pressures—particularly from within the NATO and EU ecosystems—, thereby diminishing its institutional credibility. In this context, Turkey seeks to position itself as not just a reactive actor, but as a proactive participant in crisis diplomacy and regional stabilization. From its facilitative role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative during the Russia-Ukraine conflict to its backing of the UN-recognized government in Libya and involvement in diplomatic negotiations on Gaza, Turkey has sought to assert itself as a constructive geopolitical broker.

Turkey’s foreign policy ambitions cannot rest on geostrategic vision or rhetoric alone; they demand institutional depth, narrative coherence, and above all economic resilience. Also, it is crucial to remember the following: In Turkey under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, domestic and foreign policy issues are often deeply intertwined. In this context, developments in domestic politics tend to influence foreign policy, while shifts in foreign policy dynamics also have significant repercussions on the domestic political landscape. Despite moments of diplomatic success, persistent structural weaknesses—limited diplomatic capacity, political volatility, and economic fragility—consistently strategic continuity. As the global order becomes more fragmented, Turkey stands at a crossroads: its geographic centrality and diplomatic agility provide real potential, but without parallel reforms in governance, economy, and institutions, its influence risks being fleeting rather than foundational.

Turkey’s Defence Industry: An Emerging Power or a Compelled Defence?

Amid this complex and multi-layered landscape, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sought to construct a system that he controls almost entirely at the domestic level, while simultaneously attempting to build a “national and local” defence industry. However, this dual endeavour has gradually evolved into a structure that is strong in certain respects yet significantly lacking in others.

Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s defence industry has undergone a striking evolution, emerging as both a cornerstone of national security and a symbol of technological ambition. […] platforms such as the Bayraktar TB2 have reshaped modern warfare and showcased Turkish engineering in conflicts from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine. These advancements have amplified not only Turkey’s hard power reach but also its soft power appeal. 

Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s defence industry has undergone a striking evolution, emerging as both a cornerstone of national security and a symbol of technological ambition. Institutions like ASELSAN, ROKETSAN, BAYKAR, and TUSAŞ have driven a wave of home-grown innovation, positioning Turkey as a rising military power with increasingly autonomous capabilities. Nowhere is this more evident than in its UAV program: platforms such as the Bayraktar TB2 have reshaped modern warfare and showcased Turkish engineering in conflicts from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine. These advancements have amplified not only Turkey’s hard power reach but also its soft power appeal. Yet beneath the surface of success lies a structural contradiction: the persistent reliance on imported engines, electronics, and key materials reminds us that technological sovereignty remains aspirational as long as supply chains remain externally anchored.

Despite Turkey’s celebrated progress in national defence technologies, structural dependencies on critical foreign components continue to undermine its strategic autonomy. A stark illustration of this fragility was Turkey’s removal from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program by the United States in 2019, following its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system. This exclusion not only disrupted the Turkish Air Force’s modernization path; it also exposed deep-seated weaknesses in domestic production capacity. One of the projects most affected has been the development of the KAAN National Combat Aircraft, which remains highly dependent on foreign technology—especially in jet engine systems. Although national institutions like TÜBİTAK and TUSAŞ are spearheading efforts to produce local engines, technical maturity remains elusive, placing Turkey at a competitive disadvantage within the global aerospace industry.

The Eurofighter Typhoon case starkly illustrates the multilayered barriers confronting Turkey’s quest for defence autonomy. Although Turkey joined the program in the early 2000s with ambitions of technology transfer and joint production, its integration has been shaped by political hesitation and technical bottlenecks. Over 80 percent of the aircraft’s core systems—including engines, avionics, and flight controls—remain sourced from European suppliers, notably in the UK, Germany, and Spain. More recently, renewed discussions on Turkish procurement have reportedly involved political conditionalities, such as restrictions on deployment against Kurdish groups or in the context of Aegean tensions with Greece, further complicating negotiations. These dynamics reveal a structural paradox: Turkey aspires to strategic independence, yet remains entangled in deep interdependencies. Compounding this challenge is Turkey’s fragile economic landscape—marked by high inflation, currency volatility, and limited fiscal space—which weakens its negotiating leverage and casts doubt on the long-term sustainability of such high-cost defence projects. Without a stable economic foundation, ambitions for defence autonomy risk remaining aspirational rather than achievable.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the viability of Turkey’s expanding defence ambitions is increasingly constrained by fiscal fragility. As of 2023, Turkey’s external debt exceeds $450 billion, inflation hovers around 60 percent, and the Turkish lira continues its volatile depreciation, driving up the cost of imported defence components. These dynamics significantly impede the localization of high-tech systems, especially in electronic warfare, precision munitions, and propulsion.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the viability of Turkey’s expanding defence ambitions is increasingly constrained by fiscal fragility. As of 2023, Turkey’s external debt exceeds $450 billion, inflation hovers around 60 percent, and the Turkish lira continues its volatile depreciation, driving up the cost of imported defence components. These dynamics significantly impede the localization of high-tech systems, especially in electronic warfare, precision munitions, and propulsion. Currently, foreign dependency in some critical subsystems surpasses 70 percent, particularly in engine technologies and electro-optical sensors—a figure that not only calls Turkey’s defence sustainability into question, but also its geostrategic credibility in NATO and beyond. Ultimately, Turkey’s dual ambition—to assert itself as a regional defence power while maintaining economic and technological sovereignty—remains encumbered by deep-seated systemic and structural constraints. Unless these are addressed through long-term institutional investment, broader technological partnerships, and fiscal stabilization, Turkey’s strategic autonomy risks remaining rhetorical rather than real.

Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. 

Turkey’s defence industry has evolved into more than a military instrument; it is now a key lever for diplomatic influence and geopolitical ambition. Positioned at the heart of NATO, yet often at odds with its Western allies, Ankara has expanded its strategic footprint across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus by leveraging domestically-developed military platforms. These capabilities have enabled intervention, mediation, and deterrence—but also intensified friction with traditional partners over issues like the S-400 purchase, sanctions, and arms embargoes. In response, Turkey has cultivated alternative defence partnerships with states such as Qatar, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan—an intentional pivot toward a multipolar order in which Ankara seeks to shape, not follow, global security dynamics. The launch of the TCG Anadolu, a drone-capable amphibious assault vessel, and the combat-tested success of UAVs like the Bayraktar TB2, exemplify Turkey’s bid for power projection and defence innovation.

Yet beneath these advances lie unresolved structural vulnerabilities. Turkey remains heavily dependent on imported engines, semiconductors, and electronic warfare components—dependencies that constrain its strategic autonomy. Economic fragilities, including foreign currency volatility and constrained R&D funding, further limit its ability to scale and sustain this momentum. As a result, Turkey’s defence assertiveness risks outpacing its economic and industrial foundations.

Authoritarianism and Geopolitical Capacity: Theoretical and Empirical Dimensions

The interconnection between domestic political structures and foreign policy outcomes has become a defining principle in contemporary international relations, underscoring how internal governance dynamics shape a state’s external behaviour. In Turkey’s case, democratic backsliding—characterized by the erosion of judicial independence, suppression of media freedom, and the marginalization of political opposition—has significantly weakened institutional resilience and diminished international credibility. This authoritarian drift is evident in politically charged trials against figures such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, sustained government pressure on influential business associations like TÜSİAD, and the silencing of dissent within academia and the press.

These developments have not only narrowed the space for political pluralism—an essential component of democratic legitimacy; they have also eroded Turkey’s normative appeal and soft power, particularly within multilateral institutions such as the Council of Europe. The institutional degradation extends beyond civil liberties, affecting key bureaucratic and strategic organs. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, once a cornerstone of Turkish diplomatic competence, has seen its autonomy curtailed and its operational coherence strained under an increasingly centralized presidential system. Similarly, the credibility of the Central Bank has been undermined by political interference, complicating efforts to rein in inflation.

Although the appointment of Mehmet Şimşek signalled a tentative return to orthodox economic policymaking, the program faces structural challenges—most notably, the disconnect between the long-term nature of stabilization and the short-term urgency of political expectations. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and while some investor confidence has returned, it remains fragile amid ongoing institutional volatility. These economic constraints directly impact Turkey’s capacity to project consistent and credible influence abroad, further entrenching the feedback loop between domestic fragility and external limitations.

Although the appointment of Mehmet Şimşek signalled a tentative return to orthodox economic policymaking, the program faces structural challenges—most notably, the disconnect between the long-term nature of stabilization and the short-term urgency of political expectations. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and while some investor confidence has returned, it remains fragile amid ongoing institutional volatility. These economic constraints directly impact Turkey’s capacity to project consistent and credible influence abroad, further entrenching the feedback loop between domestic fragility and external limitations.

Likewise, economic governance institutions struggle with mounting fiscal pressures, ad hoc decision-making, and inconsistent coordination across government branches—all of which limit Ankara’s ability to formulate and execute coherent foreign policy strategies. These dynamics reflect a growing consensus in international relations: without strong domestic institutions, no state can sustain a credible, consistent, or effective foreign policy. When democratic legitimacy, strategic foresight, and institutional robustness are absent, a country’s global standing erodes (Ozturk 2021). In Turkey’s case, foreign policy limitations are no longer primarily the result of external shocks—they are increasingly self-inflicted. A governance model driven by short-term centralization over long-term planning has weakened the state’s ability to act as a reliable and norm-abiding international actor. The dismantling of checks and balances, the erosion of the rule of law, and the personalization of executive power have collectively undercut Turkey’s capacity for international leadership. As leading theorists have long argued, global influence tends to mirror domestic stability. Without transparency, meritocracy, and accountability at home, sustained diplomatic credibility abroad remains elusive.

This strategic paradox is especially stark in Turkey’s simultaneous pursuit of regional leadership and slide into authoritarianism. While Ankara has achieved significant milestones in defence—most notably with UAVs like the Bayraktar TB2—these successes are undermined by unresolved technological dependencies, exposure to sanctions, and a weak innovation ecosystem. Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program is a case in point: a foreign policy consequence rooted in internal political choices. At the same time, deepening polarization and rising authoritarianism continue to hollow out the institutional base required for values-driven, rules-based foreign policy. This contradiction echoes a central dilemma in neorealist thought: the pursuit of power abroad constrained by dysfunction at home.

Turkey’s future as a consequential geopolitical actor depends not only on its external posture, but also—and, perhaps, to a greater extent—on its internal reform trajectory. The link between democratization and foreign policy capacity is now, to a greater extent, structural, not voluntary. A growing body of empirical research affirms that institutional resilience and democratic governance are the bedrock upon which international credibility and sustained strategic engagement are built. In Turkey’s case, revitalizing judicial independence, restoring media freedom, and safeguarding civil liberties would not only stabilize domestic politics; they would also rebuild diplomatic legitimacy. Without such reforms, Turkey’s claims to regional leadership will continue to ring hollow. The strategic imperative is unmistakable: domestic reform must precede external ambition.

The trajectory of Turkey’s defence sector illustrates this tension vividly. The 2019 decision to acquire the Russian-made S-400 missile system in the face of strong NATO objections triggered sweeping sanctions from the United States, including Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program. These sanctions cost Turkey an estimated $9 billion in lost revenue and delayed the modernization of its air force by years. More broadly, they severed access to key aerospace technologies and components, exposing critical vulnerabilities in Turkey’s defence supply chains. These disruptions have seriously impacted the operational readiness and long-term viability of Turkey’s military modernization agenda.

The fallout has been particularly acute in legacy systems like the F-16 fleet, where embargoes on avionics and engine parts have driven up costs and reduced operational capability. Experts estimate a 15–20 percent drop in readiness for key aerial platforms. In response, Ankara has ramped up investments in domestic production—especially in drones, missile systems, and naval assets. Yet despite notable advances by firms such as BAYKAR, ASELSAN, and TUSAŞ, efforts toward self-reliance remain hamstrung by technological bottlenecks, insufficient R&D capacity, and ongoing exclusion from Western defence networks.

These strategic constraints have been magnified by strained relations with major European powers–particularly Greece, France, and Germany. The Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean have become militarized flashpoints, with defence spending in the region rising by over 25 percent over five years. France’s naval deployments and Germany’s military aid to Greece have fuelled Ankara’s perception of encirclement, prompting muscular responses ranging from intensified naval patrols to aggressive diplomacy. To counterbalance Western isolation, Turkey has cultivated closer ties with countries like Qatar, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan, and expanded its role in multilateral initiatives like the Organisation of Turkic States. Yet these steps offer limited strategic depth and cannot replace the geopolitical capital once derived from robust engagement with NATO and the EU.

The long-term resolution of this structural impasse lies in a political reset domestically. Should Turkey undertake serious reform—restoring judicial independence, ceasing to repress dissent, and reinvigorating media pluralism—it could begin to rebuild trust with Western allies and reposition itself as a credible regional power. The goal of forming a “security community” based on trust, dialogue, and conflict resolution would become increasingly achievable. The political science literature consistently demonstrates that democratization fosters foreign direct investment, strengthens diplomatic partnerships, and deepens economic integration. Empirical studies show that improved governance can increase FDI inflows by up to 15 percent annually in transitioning economies—resources that could sustain defence modernization and broader economic transformation.

Beyond economic gains, democratization would reduce Western scepticism about Turkey’s reliability as a strategic partner. It would unlock avenues for defence cooperation, technological exchange, and deeper institutional integration with Euro-Atlantic structures. Lifting sanctions, rejoining procurement programs, and restoring Turkey’s role in collective defence initiatives would follow. This, in turn, would reduce Turkey’s exposure to embargo-induced shocks and enhance its influence in conflict zones such as Ukraine, Libya, the Caucasus, and Gaza.

Turkey’s current geopolitical constraints—external sanctions, regional tensions, and internal authoritarian drift—are not inescapable. They are symptoms of a deeper structural misalignment between its internal governance and external ambitions. A return to democratic pluralism, institutional integrity, and transparent governance is more than an idealistic proposition—it is a strategic necessity. Only through reform, not confrontation, can Turkey convert its latent potential into lasting, rules-based power in a multipolar world. Alongside political reform, Turkey must also address its structural demographic and economic challenges. Strategic influence in the 21st century hinges not just on military strength; it also depends on human capital, education quality, and technological innovation. Yet Turkey faces mounting pressure in these areas, with high youth unemployment, low female labour participation, and a deepening brain drain. Reversing these trends requires a long-term industrial strategy, targeted education reform, and regional employment programs. Without integrating economic and demographic planning into a cohesive strategic vision, Turkey’s goals of technological autonomy and regional leadership will remain constrained not by external rivals, but by internal inertia.

Conclusion and Policy recommendations

Turkey’s recent investments in its defence industry reflect both a rational response to global volatility and a strategic effort to enhance national resilience. In an era marked by geopolitical fragmentation, escalating conflicts, and waning multilateralism, Ankara’s drive toward military self-sufficiency—particularly in areas like UAV technology, missile systems, and naval capabilities—offers not only national security benefits, but also the possibility of Turkey acting as a stabilizing force beyond its borders. As European security architectures are increasingly strained and regions like the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean face heightened instability, Turkey is uniquely positioned to contribute to reducing regional tensions by maintaining equilibria and providing humanitarian support. However, to fully realize this potential and translate military capacity into sustainable strategic influence, several foundational issues must be addressed.

Turkey must enhance its democratic capacity at home. A resilient democracy—grounded in the rule of law, judicial independence, media pluralism, and civil liberties—is more than a normative ideal; it is a prerequisite for long-term strategic credibility.

First, Turkey must enhance its democratic capacity at home. A resilient democracy—grounded in the rule of law, judicial independence, media pluralism, and civil liberties—is more than a normative ideal; it is a prerequisite for long-term strategic credibility. Democratic legitimacy strengthens foreign policy coherence, facilitates international partnerships, and enhances the soft power necessary for conflict mediation and regional diplomacy. Without internal reforms of this sort, Turkey’s external actions will continue to be viewed with scepticism, particularly by Western allies whose cooperation remains vital for technological collaboration and institutional integration.

Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives.  

Second, Turkey must articulate a clear strategic rationale to underpin its defence investments. This involves moving beyond reactive threat perceptions and developing a holistic framework that aligns defence policy with broader developmental and diplomatic objectives. In this context, two interrelated concepts are paramount: economic security and open strategic autonomy. Economic security ensures that defence development is underpinned by a stable macroeconomic foundation, robust innovation ecosystems, and inclusive growth. Open strategic autonomy, meanwhile, allows Turkey to pursue sovereign policy choices while maintaining constructive engagement with both Western institutions and non-Western partners. Crucially, these two pillars must operate in tandem. Our recommendation is that rather than severing its historical ties with the Western bloc, Turkey should strengthen its institutions, economy, and democracy in order to gain greater strategic flexibility. This would enable Turkey to enhance its capabilities—particularly in the field of defence—while also increasing its influence across a range of other domains. A defence posture rooted in economic security enhances industrial sustainability and innovation, while open strategic autonomy ensures that sovereignty does not come at the cost of isolation. This dual approach not only supports Turkey’s strategic flexibility; it also encourages democratic consolidation and institutional development, creating a virtuous cycle in which internal governance reform and external credibility reinforce one another.

Turkey’s ambitions to act as a “balancing power” or “regional stabilizer” are both timely and attainable, but only if pursued through a coordinated, multi-dimensional strategy. Defence modernization, democratic reform, economic resilience, and strategic autonomy should be viewed not as separate tracks, but as mutually reinforcing components of a coherent national vision. A Turkey that invests in its people, renews its institutions, and positions its defence capabilities within a transparent and accountable strategic framework will be far better placed to engage with Western partners on an equal footing and to shape regional dynamics in a constructive, stabilizing manner. The future of Turkey’s geopolitical influence therefore lies not solely in its arsenal, but in the strength, legitimacy, and foresight of the state that wields it.

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According to Article II, Section 2, Clause 2 of the United States (U.S.) Constitution, any ambassador that the U.S. President appoints shall be approved by the Senate to be confirmed. Once the President’s nomination for ambassador is submitted to the Senate, one or more of the standing committees within the Senate shall examine the nominee by holding a public hearing in which the nominee addresses the committee with an opening statement and takes questions from Senators on the committee. After the hearing, the committee then decides whether to recommend the nominee when voting is opened up to the entire Senate. Unlike legislation, which requires a three-fifths majority of Senators to end debate, presidential nominations, such as those for ambassadors, only need a simple majority of all Senators to end debate and proceed to a vote to confirm or reject the nominee.

In her Senate confirmation hearing on July 9, 2025, the Ambassador-nominee to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, explained that her previous experience as a prosecutor in San Francisco and Los Angeles, her work in television and the media, and her time as First Lady of San Francisco have equipped her with skills in negotiation, analysis, and diplomacy, which she believes will help her serve effectively in her new role. With regard to Greece and to bilateral relations, the nominated Ambassador applauded the partnership between Greece and the United States. In both her opening statement and her responses to questions, she routinely mentioned that Greece has exceeded NATO’s previous 2% GDP target for military spending by dedicating 3% to defence —the actual figure for 2024 is 3.08%, according to official NATO data. She further highlighted that Greece is on a trajectory toward meeting the new 5% defence spending pledge by 2035, which Allies agreed on during the NATO Summit in The Hague in June. She also pledged to increase military cooperation between the American and Greek military, as well as to enhance U.S. support for Greek military modernization.

Guilfoyle also emphasized U.S.-Greece energy cooperation, highlighting specific projects, such as the Revithoussa LNG terminal and the construction of the Alexandroupoli floating storage regasification unit, and noted that American natural gas accounts for 20% of Greece’s natural gas imports. While also highlighting the importance of Greece as an energy hub, she added that the U.S. is helping to connect Greece with nations in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as with both Cyprus and Israel. She stated that the Greek-American relationship is built on strong people-to-people ties, emphasizing the importance of the Greek-American and Orthodox communities within Greece, as well as their shared commitments to democracy and religious freedom.

In response to her statements, Guilfoyle received several questions about her stances on Greek and regional issues. Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) inquired about the state of the 3+1 partnership between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, to which Guilfoyle restated America’s commitment to all three allies in the region. In response to Senator John Barrasso’s (R-WY) question about opportunities for greater cooperation, Guilfoyle responded by mentioning American cooperation with Greece, specifically aimed at limiting Russian and Chinese influence through investments in critical infrastructure. Multiple Senators, including Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), the Chair of the Committee on Foreign Relations Senator Jim Risch (R-ID) and Senator Chris van Hollen (D-MY), posed questions on Greek-Turkish relations, in response to which Guilfoyle reaffirmed America’s commitment to Greece, reiterated Greece’s strategic importance as a U.S. ally and referred to her good working relationship with Thomas Barrack, the Ambassador to Turkey appointed under the current administration. She stressed the importance of cooperation between the ambassadors to Athens and to Ankara to support the resolution of disputes. She also criticized Turkey over the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, which, she posited, raises significant questions about Ankara’s alignment with NATO’s strategic objectives.

Indeed, Guilfoyle’s remarks reflect the growing depth of U.S.–Greece relations in recent years, particularly in the fields of defence, energy, and public opinion sentiment. More specifically, defence cooperation has expanded via the Mutual Defence Cooperation Agreement (MDCA) —last amended in October 2021. In April 2024, Greece approved the purchase of 35 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters (worth approximately $1.24  bn) from the U.S., and in July 2024, it signed a Letter of Offer & Acceptance for 20 F‑35s (plus option for another 20) worth approximately $8.6 bn. The importance of these defence partnerships is underscored by ongoing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. A recent European Parliament report (2025) criticizes Turkey’s foreign policy as increasingly confrontational and unaligned with EU norms and regrets the fact that Turkey is the only NATO member state not having imposed any sanctions on Russia. It condemned Ankara’s repeated violations of Greek airspace and overflights, as well as military drills in disputed maritime zones, calling on Turkey to respect international law.

At the same time, Greece has significantly strengthened its energy cooperation with the United States, positioning itself as a regional energy hub in Southeastern Europe and a key entry point for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the European market. In 2024, Greece imported approximately 1.609 billion kg of LNG, with U.S. exports accounting for nearly 75% of that total. This cooperation has been further institutionalized through infrastructure projects such as the Alexandroupolis Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU), which commenced commercial operations in October 2024, increasing Greece’s regasification and transshipment capacity. U.S. companies have also secured long-term access to this infrastructure; notably, Venture Global signed a five-year agreement to utilize capacity at Alexandroupolis to supply LNG to Central and Eastern Europe. In parallel, upstream engagement has expanded, with Chevron expressing interest in exploring hydrocarbons off Crete.

This growing closeness at the strategic and diplomatic level is reflected in the evolution of Greek public opinion. According to a 2023 Pew Research Center survey, 56% of Greeks hold a favourable attitude toward the U.S. This trend is confirmed by a Pulse survey carried out on behalf of Kathimerini in 2024 which showed that 54% of Greeks evaluate the U.S. role on issues related to Greece positively, while 76% expressed trust in U.S. allies in the event of a military crisis with Turkey. Data from the Transatlantic Periscope(*) (2022–2024) suggests that the trend of Greek–U.S. relations averages 8.5/10, placing Greece among the United States partners within the European Union that rate the bilateral relationship most favourably.

This Flashnews article was authored by Athina Fatsea, Project Manager, Transatlantic Periscope and Jake Pryor, Trainee Research Assistant, Transatlantic Periscope.

(*) The Transatlantic Periscope curates essential news, opinions, and analyses related to the bilateral relationships between the United States, European Union member states, and the United Kingdom. The Bertelsmann Foundation is partnering with in-country experts from respected research organizations and academic institutions for each country version. ELIAMEP participates in this project as the curation partner for Greece.

 

The publication “The rise of radical right and Eurosceptic political forces and the impact on the EU’s enlargement policy” is a result of the initiative think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration, funded by the Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans.

This policy brief which was prepared in collaboration with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Dialogue Southeast Europe presents the core findings and strategic recommendations of the full report. It is intended to provide the audience with a concise, accessible overview of the key insights and proposed actions.

With war raging on the European Union’s eastern border and the bloc seeking to redefine its geopolitical identity, another political transformation is unfolding within: the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic parties. Once largely marginalised actors, these forces are now increasingly reshaping Europe’s political priorities from within national parliaments and Brussels. This report takes stock of the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic political forces within the EU and examines the implications for EU enlargement policy.

In additional to the brief, a factsheet of the report was prepared in order to provide a condensed outline on how the growing influence of radical right and Eurosceptic parties is reshaping EU politics and what this means for the future of EU enlargement.

You can read the policy brief here.

You can read the factsheet here.

The full report is available here.

The publication “Europe’s Overlooked Allies: Why the Western Balkans Matter for EU Defence Readiness” is a result of the initiative think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration, supported by the Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans. The initiative contributes to reimagining the EU’s engagement with the Western Balkans, as well as the region’s attractiveness for the EU in order to ensure a resilient EU integration strategy and ever-closer integration with a full membership perspective in mind. This report authored by Dr. Ana Krstinovska (Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP & Senior Researcher, think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration) and Dr. Alessandro Marrone (Head of “Defence, Security and Space” Programme, Istituto Affari Internazionali & Non-Resident Research Associate, think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration) explores the strategic importance of the Western Balkans in the context of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and enhanced defence readiness.It underscores the argument that Western Balkan countries—despite not yet being EU member states—have increasingly proven their value as security contributors and partners. This contribution is both timely and essential as the EU confronts the implications of the war in Ukraine and potential shifts in the transatlantic security relationship. At the EU level, recent initiatives, such as the 2024 European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the 2025 White Paper on European Defence, aim to enhance collective readiness and industrial capability. Yet, the full potential of regional partnerships—particularly with the Western Balkan region—has not been fully realized, undercutting the ability to leverage and further develop their defence capabilities.

This potential is based on significant investments in the national defence capabilities, including through the purchase of European military goods, but also the upgrading of the regions’ own defence industries. Moreover, most of the countries in the region have provided significant support to Ukraine and actively participate in CSDP missions. They also contribute to strategic enablers, such as military mobility, joint training and medical support, assuming increased responsibility for the security in South-East Europe.

The Western Balkan’s existing capabilities align with several EU defence priorities outlined in the Readiness 2030 agenda, particularly in artillery ammunition production, drone systems, and logistics. Integration of the region’s capabilities into EU frameworks would support Europe’s preparedness for high-intensity conflicts. Despite this clear potential, the EU’s defence and enlargement policies often operate in separate “silos”. In order to achieve true European strategic autonomy, the EU must adopt a more synergistic approach, leveraging the Western Balkans’ defence contributions as a reason to accelerate their integration into the Union. To that effect, full CFSP alignment and rule of law improvements in the Western Balkans are as important as the region’s material contribution.

The Western Balkans are evolving from security consumers to proactive contributors to European defence. Their rising investments, operational commitments, industrial capabilities, and strategic location make them indispensable allies. As the EU seeks to meet the challenges of an increasingly volatile security environment, full engagement with the region—politically, operationally, and economically—offers a strategic opportunity to enhance resilience, autonomy, and readiness across Europe.

Policy recommendations:

Institutional integration: Create formal pathways for Western Balkan participation in EU defence initiatives, such as EDIP, the European Defence Fund, research and innovation actions.

Industrial investment: Provide targeted EU investment to the region’s defence and dual-use industries to boost production capacity, enhance supply chain resilience, and enable joint ventures with EU companies.

Joint procurement and training: Encourage joint procurement schemes and military training to ensure interoperability and cost-effectiveness. Boost the smaller markets in the region through EU-wide economies of scale.

Infrastructure funding: Prioritize funding of dual-use infrastructure in the region to support military mobility and logistical resilience.

Transparency and governance: Strengthen rule-of-law and anti-corruption mechanisms in defence procurement to ensure responsible use of increasing defence budgets.

Link to enlargement: Use defence cooperation as a strategic incentive to reinvigorate EU enlargement and vice-versa – flag the region’s contribution to European defence readiness to push enlargement forward.

Private sector partnerships: Foster long-term partnerships between Western Balkan defence SMEs and EU firms to integrate regional producers into European supply chains and innovation ecosystems.

You can read the report here.

The French newspaper La Croix published an article discussing the report, highlighting its key findings and analysis. You can read the article here (in French).

The italian magazine affarinternazionali published an article discussing the report. You can read it here (in italian).

The South-East Europe Programme of ELIAMEP is a member of the IGNITA network which is led by led by OSF-WB.

 

 

Dimitris Kollias, ELIAMEP Junior Research Fellow, gives a brief overview of Israel’s recently launched Operation Rising Lion.

Read the ELIAMEP Explainer here.

Over the last decade, the European Union has taken major steps to improve its defence industrial base, reflecting a growing strategic ambition and assertiveness. The European Defence Fund (EDF), launched in 2021, and managed by the European Commission, marks a pivotal step in the EU’s efforts to build a more integrated and competitive defence industrial base.

As of June 2025, the EDF has been implemented through annual work programmes from 2021 to 2024, supporting 224 collaborative defence projects involving entities from different EU member states. The aim of the policy paper is to initially evaluate the extent and nature of cross-border industrial cooperation among EU member-states (excluding Malta) and Norway under the European Defence Fund, and to identify emerging patterns, strategic partnerships, and sector-specific dynamics that reflect progress toward the Single Market for Defence.

Our main findings include:

• Success of the EDF: The EDF has successfully built a dense, interconnected network of cooperation among entities from participating countries, promoting shared expertise, EU-wide interdependence, and a more competitive European defence sector.
• Clusters: Intense cooperation is concentrated among countries like France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, the Netherlands and Belgium.
• Specialisation: Entity participation across defence (R&D) categories varies by country, often reflecting national strengths or geostrategic priorities.
• Coordinators: The role of the coordinators becomes more and more important as the dense network of collaboration is expanded.

Our recommendations touch upon three main areas:

• Funding: The EDF’s success justifies increased funding to strengthen the EU’s defence capabilities and support industrial cooperation.
• Inclusivity: To avoid dominance by a small number of large/prime players, the EU should strengthen support for underrepresented countries to ensure broader participation.
• Regarding Greece: Greek entities should be further encouraged to join EDF projects, linking national talent and research initiatives with EU networks to boost innovation and counter brain drain.

Read here in pdf the Policy paper by Spyros Blavoukos, Head, EU Institutions & Policies Programme, ELIAMEP; Head of the ‘Ariane Condellis’ European Programme; Professor, Athens University of Economics & Business; Panos Politis-Lamprou, Junior Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Georgios Matsoukas, Research Assistant, ELIAMEP.

Introduction

Nearly a decade has passed since the European Commission, under Jean-Claude Juncker, implemented the first EU-wide defence industrial initiatives. During this decade, the European Union’s defence industry has seen significant developments, more recently with the announcement of the ReArm Europe Plan and the SAFE Regulation that prioritises defence industrial readiness. At the same time, the European Defence Fund (EDF) has been a crucial and active instrument since 2021, signaling the EU’s intention and efforts made to close capability gaps, foster innovation and strengthen pan-European defence industrial collaboration.

To what extent have the EU member-states (excluding Malta) and Norway succeeded in building and reinforcing linkages between their defence industries? Which member-states tend to cooperate more intensively with which partners, and do such patterns vary depending on the sector or category of defence capability in which they operate?

These questions become ever more relevant as transnational industrial collaboration constitutes a driver for the development of a real Single Market for Defence, as envisioned by the Draghi Report. Furthermore, understanding the dynamics and structure of defence industrial cooperation among member-states in EU funding programmes is essential for making informed policy advice and decisions aimed at strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities and industrial competitiveness, especially in the context of the negotiations for the next MFF 2028-2034.

Setting the Background: what has changed in the realm of defence

The EU is undergoing a profound transformation regarding security and defence. Long reliant on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the American security umbrella, the EU has increasingly begun to adopt -at least rhetorically- a more assertive and autonomous role in these fields. The broad concept of strategic autonomy, which was once perceived with scepticism, has gradually evolved into a necessity, with the EU realising that the “ability to make its [the EU’s] own choices and shape the world around it through leadership and engagement” is fundamental. After decades of underinvestment, fragmentation and external dependency, the EU is now treating defence industrial policy as a core pillar of its geopolitical awakening. 

In this vein, over the past decade, the European family has taken concrete action to support both the demand and the supply sides of defence, giving more emphasis, though, until very recently, on the latter. In particular, the European Commission, under President Juncker, presented the European Defence Action Plan in 2016, paving the way for the Preparatory Action on Defence Research (PADR) (2017-2019) and the European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP) (2019-2020). Together, these two initiatives accumulatively channeled approximately 590 million EUR from the EU budget towards defence research and development (R&D). The EDF, which constitutes the successor of the two aforementioned tools, has been the flagship funding instrument for R&D in defence, earmarking almost 7.3 billion EUR for collaborative defence research and capability development for the current Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). A smaller-scale supply-oriented instrument is the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) with a budget of approximately 500 million EUR (2023-2025).

On the demand side, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) aims to incentivize the common procurement of ammunition, air and missile defence and platforms with a total budget of 310 million EUR until 2025. Furthermore, the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), whose negotiations have not yet been concluded, is expected to unlock 1.5 billion EUR from the EU budget for the period 2025-2027 to support both the production and common procurement of defence equipment, building on the experience from both ASAP and EDIRPA. On May 27, 2025, the Council established the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, incentivising the common procurement of specific categories of defence equipment, which will be supported by up to 150 billion EUR in funding borrowed from capital markets or financial institutions by the European Commission until 2030. However, it must be noted that in contrast to the aforementioned instruments, SAFE offers loans, not grants, which will have to be repaid by the member states.

A combination of external factors and the new geopolitical understanding drives the EU’s defence industrial efforts. Starting with the former, the most obvious and pressing reason has definitely been Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The invasion has exposed Europe’s inability to adequately ramp up its defence production levels. At the same time, the return of conventional and high-intensity warfare to the Old Continent has sparked concern among the European demos, as revealed by the most recent Eurobarometer. Beyond Ukraine, a deeper strategic reorientation is underway. The post-Cold War assumption that Europe could rely indefinitely on the United States (US) for the protection of its territorial integrity no longer applies. Quoting US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, “It’s deterrence and peace through strength, but it cannot be reliance”.  In addition, President Trump has repeatedly shaken the transatlantic trust. In the meantime, the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific constitutes a long-term strategic recalibration which has been promoted since the Obama administration. As Washington’s (strategic) interests shift towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC), European security can no longer assume that American help is a given.

The new geopolitical understanding is closely linked to the return of Realpolitik in the international scene. Great power competition and broader security threats have raised the importance of the Union’s broader industrial policy. The development and the resilience of the EU’s defence and technological industrial base are now considered part of its efforts to achieve strategic autonomy. In this environment, the EU’s traditional soft power must be complemented by credible military capabilities, defence innovation capacity and competitiveness.

Data collection and methodology

Why studying the EDF matters

To this end of developing credible military capabilities, the EDF plays a crucial role, being the core tool of defence industrial cooperation within the EU framework. It constitutes the first fully-fledged EU-funding mechanism, marking a shift in the Union’s approach to defence. Studying the patterns of cooperation under the EDF provides valuable insights into both the functional and political evolution of the EU’s defence industrial policy.

Furthermore, the EDF offers temporal depth and continuity. In contrast to shorter-term or ad-hoc funding instruments such as EDIRPA or ASAP, the EDF covers a multi-annual time period, namely the current MFF (2021-2027). This provides a longer and more stable timeline for assessing emerging patterns of collaboration among defence industry actors. As of 6 June 2025, four rounds of EDF project selections have been publicly announced, allowing for a more representative and credible dataset. At the same time, data is not available from either EDIP (still under negotiations) or from SAFE (not yet implemented).

Finally, with a planned envelope of 7.3 billion EUR over seven years, the EDF surpasses other comparable instruments both in scale and ambition. Although the amount may still be considered insufficient relative to Europe’s growing strategic needs (or ambitions), the funding volume makes the EDF one of the most important financial tools for defence capability development at the EU level. This financial magnitude also tends to attract many stakeholders (e.g., companies from the defence sector, research institutes, universities), which allows for a more comprehensive and representative picture of the emerging European defence ecosystem. In particular, approximately 4 billion EUR has been invested between 2021 and 2024, with almost 3,000 entity participations from all EU member states, except Malta, and Norway.

Figure 1: EDF entity participations (2021-2024)

Source: Fiott (2025)

Data mining process

For the needs of our research, the following data gathering process was followed, combining manual research with automated tools to ensure accuracy. First, we reviewed in a systematic way all individual project factsheets released under the EDF for the years 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. As of 6 June 2025, a total of 224 projects have been publicly selected for EU (co-)funding. These factsheets, available on the European Commission’s (DG DEFIS) official website, list all participating entities, their role in the consortium and their country of origin.

Next, for each project, we identified and recorded every entity listed as a participant (including the coordinator), along with the country from which it originates. This step is critical for making the mapping of defence industrial cooperation possible.

Using the data above, we constructed a 27×27 matrix to capture the frequency of cooperation between entities from different participating countries. Each row and column of the matrix represents one of the 26 EU member-states (excluding Malta) plus Norway. The matrix entries reflect the number of projects in which at least two entities from two given countries jointly participate in an EDF selected project, thereby indicating the intensity of bilateral cooperation.

Beyond the aggregate matrix, we also built additional matrices to reflect cooperation in specific categories of defence capability (e.g., air combat, cyber). For 2021, 2022 and 2024, the project categorisations were available on the Commission’s official website. However, for the 2023 selected projects, no such categorisation was publicly available at the time of writing. To resolve this, we manually reviewed each 2023 project and assigned it to the most relevant/appropriate category, based on the thematic guidelines outlined in the official EDF Work Programme for that year.

In order to minimise the probability of human error, we developed a Visual Basic for Application (VBA)-driven programme, with the support of artificial intelligence (AI), to automate the generation of matrices. Each EDF project was uploaded as a PDF file to Power BI. While the initial stages of project identification and classification required human judgment, especially in 2023, automation ensured consistency in matrix construction and allowed for an efficient verification process.

Building the Matrix of Cross-border Industrial Defence Cooperation

In this section, we present the results of our research on cross-border industrial cooperation within the framework of the EDF from 2021 to 2024. The findings are visualised through a series of graphs and tables, reflecting the cooperation between entities from the participating countries. In addition to the general matrix, which covers all categories, we also provide 18 separate matrices corresponding to specific capability categories. The National Focal Points (NFPs) category is taken into account only in the general matrix. These thematic categories enable a better understanding of how industrial partnerships vary across different domains, providing deeper insight into the patterns of specialisation and collaboration within the EU’s defence landscape. To ensure clarity and maintain the readability of the main text, the full tables containing all data is provided in the Annex.

General matrix

The general matrix reveals a high level of interconnectedness among the entities of participating countries. Nearly all participating countries have established at least one cooperative link with each other. The thickness of each line connecting two countries represents the frequency of cooperation between entities from those respective countries. Thicker lines indicate a great number of joint participations. As such, it is evident that France, Germany, Italy, Spain, followed by Belgium, Greece and the Netherlands, are involved in a significantly large number of cooperative projects and emerge as central nodes within the broader network. Based on our data, only four country pairs show no collaborative links, namely Croatia-Cyprus, Croatia-Estonia, Slovakia-Hungary and Hungary-Luxembourg. These exceptions highlight rare gaps in the otherwise dense network of partnerships.

Figure 2: General matrix of cross-border industrial cooperation in the framework of EDF (2021-2024)

Created with Flourish.studio. 

Specific categories

While the general matrix offers a comprehensive overview, a closer examination at the category level provides more insights. When the data is disaggregated by capability domain, it becomes evident that fewer countries tend to cooperate within individual categories, particularly in specialised or technically demanding areas (e.g., air and missile defence, underwater warfare). Even in these categories, entities from approximately twenty participating countries have been identified. In broader or more horizontal domains, such as SME calls, digital transformation or cyber, we observe a more diverse range of participating countries.  

Figure 3: EDF industrial cooperation in Air and Missile Defence (2021-2024)

Figure 4: EDF industrial cooperation in Air Combat (2021-2024)

Figure 5: EDF industrial cooperation in Cyber (2021-2024)

Figure 6: EDF industrial cooperation in Digital Transformation (2021-2024)

 

Figure 7: EDF industrial cooperation in Disruptive Technologies (2021-2024)

Figure 8: EDF industrial cooperation in Energy and Environment (2021-2024)

 

Figure 9: EDF industrial cooperation in Ground Combat (2021-2024)

 

Figure 10: EDF industrial cooperation in Information Superiority (2021-2024)

Figure 11: EDF industrial cooperation in Materials & Components (2021-2024)

Figure 12: EDF industrial cooperation in Medical Response and CBRN (2021-2024)

Figure 13: EDF industrial cooperation in Naval Combat (2021-2024)

Figure 14: EDF industrial cooperation in Protection & Mobility (2021-2024)

Figure 15: EDF industrial cooperation in Sensors (2021-2024)

Figure 16: EDF industrial cooperation in Simulation & Training (2021-2024)

Figure 17: EDF industrial cooperation in SMEs calls (2021-2024)

Figure 18: EDF industrial cooperation in Space (2021-2024)

Figure 19: EDF industrial cooperation in Technological Challenges (2021-2024)

Figure 20: EDF industrial cooperation in Underwater Warfare (2021-2024)

All figures were created with Flourish.studio.

Is an EU Industrial Defence Ecosystem Emerging?

The Key Insights

The analysis of data from the EDF for the results of 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 reveals several insights into the evolving landscape of the defence industrial cooperation in the EU. These findings may provide valuable insights for shaping future policy directions at both the national and European levels.

The first and most notable finding is the emergence of a dense and increasingly interconnected network of industrial collaboration across entities from the participating countries. This web of partnerships demonstrates that the EDF has succeeded in one of its central objectives: “to promote cooperation between companies, including SMEs and research actors throughout the Union”. By enabling entities from different member-states and Norway to jointly research, design, develop and/or test defence technologies, the Union provides a platform for building shared expertise, transferring know-how and promoting the involvement of all interested (and eligible) countries in developing a truly European defence technological and industrial base. This, in turn, allows each participant to capitalise on its own comparative advantages, reinforcing strategic EU-wide interdependence rather than duplication or dependency on third countries (to the extent this is possible). Moreover, as cooperation intensifies across borders, the European defence sector may become more efficient and competitive at the international level.

The second major finding highlights the existence of concentrated clusters (or “isles”) of more intense cooperation, particularly among certain countries. These include France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece and the Netherlands. Their enhanced presence is not surprising, as these states have expressed their interest in leveraging the EDF funding since its early stages. Another factor may be that large and promising projects naturally gravitate toward countries with high R&D capacity, experience or enhanced dual-use capabilities. At the same time, entities from smaller states seek to “plug into” projects led by bigger players to gain access to European consortia so that they receive EU funding, build their reputational capital and integrate more fully into the European defence value chains.

The third key insight relates to participation in specific categories. The data (Figures 3-20) clearly shows that not all countries are equally represented across all categories of defence R&D. Participation levels often correspond to national comparative advantages, specialisations or geostrategic profiles. For example, in the naval domain, all entities come from participating countries with direct maritime borders. Moreover, the participation of (entities from) Finland, Norway, Sweden and the Baltic states in underwater warfare is noteworthy, given the hybrid attacks and sabotage incidents targeting undersea infrastructure in the Nordic-Baltic region. This finding reinforces the idea that the EDF constitutes a mirror of national industrial strengths and strategic preferences.

Finally, a fourth finding concerns the increasingly pivotal role of project coordinators. As noted before by Fiott (2024), coordinating an EDF project entails more than administrative responsibility. Project coordinators act as network builders and managers. Taking into account this dense network of cooperation, their role becomes extremely important.

Limitations and future research

While the findings presented above offer a valuable overview of defence industrial cooperation through the EDF, five main limitations should be acknowledged, each of which may function as a fruitful ground for future research.

1. The analysis is primarily quantitative. While it captures the presence of cooperation between entities from different countries, it does not measure the quality, depth or strategic significance of those partnerships. To assess these dimensions, qualitative case studies are needed, while interviews with project coordinators and national contact points could shed further light on substantial (internal) issues of collaboration within each consortium.
2. Directly correlated to the first limitation, qualitative research may reveal interesting facts about the ownership of companies (i.e., the country of origin of the parent companies) that benefit from EDF (co)-funding. For instance, Greece’s INTRACOM Defense, which has been awarded at least 15 million EUR through the EDF, was acquired by Israel Aerospace Industries – Israel’s biggest state-owned defence company – in March 2023. Another example would be MILREM AS, whose majority stake was acquired by the Emirate EDGE GROUP in February 2023. Furthermore, the US has also been indirectly involved in EDF projects (e.g., EPIIC 2021), for example, through Germany’s Rockwell Collins Deutschland GmbH, a subsidiary of Rockwell Collins, Inc. More importantly, for Greece, Miilux Oy, a Finnish manufacturing company participating in the EDF 2021 project ECOBALLIFE, had its majority shares acquired by Türkiye’s OYAK Group in 2019. The discussion about the ownership shares and the (indirect) participation of entities from third countries has become more relevant after the SAFE Regulation and the broader discussion it has triggered regarding the role and participation of third countries in EU-funded schemes and initiatives.
3. The current methodology maps cooperation at the country level, but not specific patterns of partner selection within each consortium. It would be interesting to examine whether the big players tend to cooperate with specific entities of equal size from certain countries, indicating a process of cartelisation in the defence sector.
4. The study does not assess the level of EU financial contribution allocated to each project, nor does it analyse the specific distribution of the funding among participating entities. Thus, it does not entirely capture the financial weight or the strategic importance of each entity’s involvement.
5. The political context of cooperation is also not reflected in the dataset. It would be valuable to cross-reference industrial partnerships with indicators of political alignment or joint strategic interests. This could help policymakers understand to what extent defence industrial cooperation reflects broader geopolitical considerations.

Policy Recommendations

Different theoretical approaches offer alternative accounts for the dynamics driving the evolution of the EDF, stressing either its neofunctionalist features or its intergovernmentalist operational logic. To our understanding, it is clear that the EDF evolves into a mechanism for deeper structural integration in the defence sector by creating transnational consortia, fostering interoperability, and promoting European technological development and innovation. The increasing reliance on cross-border defence industrial partnerships and the creation of a dense network of cooperation may be the drivers for deeper political cooperation.

Building on all the above, three key policy recommendations emerge. Firstly, the EDF’s success would justify a significant increase in its funding under the upcoming MFF. This will not only consolidate existing cooperation but also pave the way for more ambitious and strategically relevant projects. The commercialisation of successful EDF projects must also be supported through financial means, as proposed in the White Paper, while the implementation of European defence projects of common interest should take into consideration the lessons learnt, the good practices from the EDF as well as the Union’s strategic needs.

Secondly, to prevent the emergence of cartel dynamics, where a limited number of large players dominate most projects, the EU should further strengthen measures to promote inclusivity and broader participation. Additional tailored incentives for SMEs must be promoted, while incentives for entities from less-represented countries shall also be considered. These actors may often offer significant added value, but they lack the institutional access and means compared to large defence contractors. The European Defence Innovation Scheme’s (EUDIS) matchmaking process could be further expanded.

Last but not least, in the case of Greece, its entities have already demonstrated a capacity to contribute meaningfully to various categories. Greek authorities should encourage greater participation not only from defence firms but also from research institutes and universities. Indeed, involvement in EDF projects would not only provide additional funding streams for their activities, but also facilitate access to cutting-edge European networks, strengthen their visibility and create high-skilled employment opportunities in Greece. This mobilisation of scientific talent and research infrastructure can be closely linked to “Rebrain Greece”, which aims to reverse the brain drain. EU-level funding could serve as a strong incentive for these highly skilled professionals to return and contribute to the development of a competitive Greek defence innovation ecosystem.

Annex I: General matrix

 

 

 

The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for May 2025.

On May 7, 2025, Kimberly Guilfoyle completed the US State Department’s mandatory training for incoming ambassadors at the Foreign Service Institute, ahead of her anticipated appointment as US ambassador to Greece. According to the Greek newspaper ‘To Vima’, Guilfoyle’s confirmation hearing before the Senate is expected to take place between late June and early July, with a potential arrival in Athens projected for early September.

According to a statement issued by the Hellenic National Defence General Staff (HNDGS), from April 26 to May 8, 2025, and within the framework of the ongoing military cooperation between Greece and the United States, the bilateral exercise “STOLEN CERBERUS XI” was conducted under the coordination of the Special Warfare Command (SWC) of the HNDGS. Personnel and assets from the SWC and the Underwater Demolitions Command (UDC) of the Hellenic Navy General Staff, paratroopers from the Parachutists School of the Hellenic Army General Staff as well as Hellenic Air Force C-130 aircrafts participated in the exercise, along with US personnel from the 37th Airlift Squadron (86th Airlift Wing) and 3 MC-130J aircraft. The exercise took place in the wider area of Attica and the island of Skyros. It included air Cooperation, supply drops, Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC), as well as Military Free Fall and Static Line parachute jumps, contributing to the improvement of the military cooperation between the Armed Forces of the two countries.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Hellenic Air Force, Lieutenant General Dimosthenis Grigoriadis, visited the United States on May 19-23 in the context of preparations for the delivery of F-35 fighter jets, with the first four expected to be delivered in the second half of 2028. Adding the advanced US multi-role aircraft to the Hellenic Air Force fleet is considered crucial in boosting Greece’s deterrent power, at a time when geopolitical stability in the Eastern Mediterranean is gaining in importance. Lieutenant General Grigoriadis visited the Lockheed Martin facilities in Fort Worth, Texas, where he was briefed on the progress of the production of the Greek F-35 fighter aircraft. He was also briefed on the training procedures for both pilots and technical personnel who will support the operation and maintenance of the F-35 in order to ensuring a high level of operational availability. He also had successive meetings with US Defense Department officials and Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program managers and other top management.

The American-Hellenic Chamber of Commerce officially inaugurated its US branch, in Washington DC, on May 22, thereby boosting its physical presence in the States and marking a new chapter in Greek-American economic relations. The official opening ceremony brought together leaders of the Greek-American community, US government officials, past and present ambassadors, stakeholders, and business representatives from Greece and the United States, including the leadership of its founding organization, the American-Hellenic Chamber.

In his correspondence dated May 26, 2025, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed gratitude for his counterpart, Minister NIkos Dendias’ congratulatory letter regarding his appointment and for his ongoing support in bilateral cooperation. Hegseth also stated the strong ties that have existed for decades between the United States of America and Greece both on the bilateral level and through the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO). Hegseth underlined that the US Department of Defence remains committed to cooperation with Greece, adding that he believes that this relationship will get deeper in the future as Greece’s participation in the F-35 programme continues.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou give a brief overview of the new financial instrument for joint procurement of defence equipment in the field of European defence.

Read the ELIAMEP Explainer here.

The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for April 2025.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation in the House of Representatives aimed at deepening U.S. security cooperation with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. The proposed legislation, titled the American-Hellenic-Israeli Eastern Mediterranean Counterterrorism and Maritime Security Partnership Act of 2025, was introduced by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and co-led by Reps. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.). It aims to bolster collaboration on counterterrorism and maritime security, while formalizing the 3+1 framework —a strategic dialogue initiative involving Greece, Cyprus, and Israel in partnership with the United States— as a platform for long-term strategic cooperation.

Having collaborated with President Donald Trump in the past, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed confidence in his ability to do so again effectively, emphasizing the potential for a ‘win-win’ U.S.-EU trade deal, during an interview with Breitbart News, on April 9. Trump responded to Greek Prime Minister’s interview and his comments on a potential EU-US trade deal, stating “I agree. I know him, he’s a good man, I appreciate his comments. […] Yes, a deal can be made with any of them”.

Following a press release dated April 14, the American-Hellenic Chamber of Commerce announced the establishment of its branch office in Washington, D.C., strengthening its presence in the United States. The new office will actively contribute to the further development of bilateral trade and economic relations between the two countries, supporting the international expansion of Greek businesses and attracting American companies and investments. The establishment of the branch is a strategic decision that has been carefully planned and prepared over time, marking a new era for bilateral economic and commercial relations.

With regard to defence procurement, a key component of the 12-year, €28 billion defense procurement plan approved by the Greek Government Council for Foreign and Defense Affairs (KYSEA) on April 16 is the upgrade of the F-16 Block 50 fighter jets to the Viper configuration. During the KYSEA meeting, the discussion focused on ongoing negotiations between Greece and the United States, which seek to resolve financial differences surrounding the upgrade program. Under the Long-Term Defense Armaments Program (MPAE), €1 billion has been allocated for the upgrade of 38 aircraft. However, this amount still falls short of the informal US offer, which stands at €1.5 billion. American manufacturing companies have said that there is very limited room to reduce costs. Despite this, according to Stavros Ioannidis (Kathimerini), negotiations remain active, with the two sides exploring different options.

Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou, responsible for Economic Diplomacy and Extroversion, met on April 16 with a visiting US Congressional delegation. Both sides reaffirmed the historically excellent relations between Greece and the United States, and discussed bilateral cooperation and the challenges the global community faces. At the same time, both sides discussed Greece’s strategy in extroversion and the attraction of investments. Chatzivasileiou underlined that Greece is a responsible force of stability in the East Mediterranean and a reliable partner for the future of economic cooperation and geopolitical stability.

Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis met on April 17 with a delegation of the US Congress, consisting of 10 Representatives from the Republican and Democratic Parties, led by Congressman Vern Buchanan (R-FL). During the meeting, Hatzidakis stressed that “the Greek economy is growing steadily and is increasingly becoming an economy of opportunities for investment and new jobs.” “The combination of political stability and a mix of economic policies further enhances the attractiveness of the country,” he stated in a post on social media.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Ioannis Armakolas and Çelik Rruplli examine the results of the Albanian elections, providing early insights into the political dynamics and outcome.

Read the ELIAMEP Explainer here.

In an effort to avoid a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis, European states are increasingly turning to third-country agreements, exemplified by the recent deal with Tunisia. This paper explores two central questions: How effective are third-country agreements in addressing the complex and persistent challenges of European migration, and why do European leaders continue to favor this policy approach? The paper argues that Europe’s ongoing migration dilemmas stem from the inherently “wicked” nature of the crisis—one that defies simple solutions and requires policies that move beyond short-term deterrence logic. It assesses the policy’s effectiveness in deterring irregular migration, its role in enabling migration weaponization, and its potential to generate hypocrisy costs. It posits that third-country agreements serve immediate political interests by offering the appearance of control and responsiveness. Ultimately, the success of such agreements depends on the analytical lens—while they may appear effective in the short term, they risk entrenching long-term failures, thereby reinforcing the intractability of the crisis.

Read here the Working paper by Zoe Raptis,Tufts University.

Ιntroduction

Europe’s shortcomings in managing migration have been evident since the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis. Since then, the salience of migration for Europe has not abated, especially as illustrated by the recent 2024 European elections. The European struggle with migration, I argue, persists because of the inherently wicked character of the migration crisis, as illustrated by issues of border security and migration weaponization. Beyond illustrating the wicked character of the dynamic interplay of the aforementioned issues, the European case is particularly salient when evaluating a policy used as a common mitigating “solution” to the migration crisis: third-country agreements. These agreements come in different forms, but all agreements are a policy of externalization, which seeks to alleviate the wicked problem of border security by limiting the influx of refugees and asylum seekers through deterrence. I will conduct an evaluative policy analysis of these third-country agreements to answer two questions: First, how effective is the policy of third-country agreements in addressing the wickedness of the European migration crisis? Second, why is this policy so popular among European leaders? 

Regarding the first question, I will evaluate the effectiveness of third-country agreements based on two criteria: Firstly, whether these agreements successfully achieve their primary aim of deterrence, and secondly, whether they adequately address the European migration crisis in the long run. I hypothesize that the policy of third-country agreements is ineffective on both grounds. These agreements, at best, deter refugees and asylum seekers aiming to enter European states only in the short run. Europe’s deterrence-based approach to migration does not deal with its root causes, and even if some deterrence is produced, the costs incurred outweigh any positive effects of deterring migrants. Thus, the short run-long run paradox is at play, as the policy may lead to the short run benefit of reducing the number of irregular migrants, but this has exacerbated the possibility of long run failures. The most significant drawback of this policy is the weaponization of migration. That is, third-country partnerships grant the third countries disproportionate amounts of power, which can be used to weaponize migration. By mitigating border security issues, these agreements propel another wicked problem in the weaponization of migration. Lastly, these partnerships are ineffective due to hypocrisy costs for domestic and international actors. These agreements often violate human rights, contradicting the liberal ideals many European states promote. However, hypocrisy costs are the least significant drawback, as other states rarely impose them. For hypocrisy costs to significantly impact states, they must be imposed frequently, but they are primarily enforced by human rights organizations, which wield comparatively less influence than states. States seldom hold European states accountable for hypocrisy since they themselves are often guilty of similar policies. The absence of condemnation is also due to strong anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe, so domestic and regional actors are not concerned with states acting hypocritically if it means keeping migrants out.

For the second research question, I will employ a short run rather than a long run framework to display why the policy of third-country agreements is so popular among European leaders. I propose that European leaders are not ignorant that these agreements are only short-term solutions; in fact, this is part of the appeal of such a policy. These partnerships improve the optics of the proactiveness of states in dealing with migration challenges, accomplishing a sufficient temporary reduction in migration numbers. While they serve only as a temporary fix, states are willing to bear the costs of such measures, considering that the alternative—structural reform—poses a formidable obstacle, as such an approach would conflict with the short-term political motivations of leaders. Thus, leaders respond to a crisis-by-crisis approach instead of considering long-term solutions, which I posit produces an inability to address the wicked problems at play.

The European migration crisis embodying wicked problems

The framework of wicked problems was formulated by Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber by categorizing certain policy planning problems as “inherently wicked,” embodying ten characteristics.[1]A wicked policy problem defies straightforward solutions due to its interconnectedness with other problems and a multiplicity of stakeholders with conflicting interests and values. The European migration crisis is interwoven by many wicked problems, such as border security, weaponization of migration, and poverty, thereby making the crisis wicked. The European migration crisis embodies many of the ten characteristics defining wicked problems. There are multiple conflicting values, as seen by the disagreement within the EU on migration. The crisis is difficult to define, as it mutates and changes over time, as seen by the difference now in 2024 with Ukrainian refugees compared to 2015 with Syrian refugees. There is no single root cause of the crisis’s complexity as it is interconnected with many other problems, such as poverty in origin countries, wars, and environmental degradation. The European migration crisis, in short, is more than a security problem. It is “a humanitarian crisis based in the suffering of individuals who [have] abandoned their homes; a geopolitical conflict ranging across countries and continents; a security threat for both receiving and transit countries; a potentially heavy financial burden on already overtaxed states; and the breakdown of collaboration in the network of EU member states.”[2]

The wicked character of the European migration crisis points to the difficulty of solving the crisis, as we cannot even neatly define it. The solution to the crisis can never be right or wrong but good or bad. In this paper, I will argue that the policy of third-country partnerships falls into the “bad” category of solutions.[3] However, this policy can be seen as “good” from the short-run perspective of political leaders – which incidentally adds to the wickedness of the problem, as perspective and incentives greatly influence evaluations of third-country agreements.  The European migration crisis can never be solved entirely, as so many wicked problems are at play that, due to their nature, can never be fully answered. Even if push factors are weakened, several migrants will always want to enter Europe. Due to my focus on evaluating the policy of third-country agreements, I will focus on the wicked problems of border security and the weaponization of migration.

Explaining the policy of third-country agreements

Third-country agreements come in many different forms, but the overarching framework is that European destination countries use these agreements as an externalization policy to deter irregular migrants by either moving migrants to a safe third country or shifting the responsibility to transit countries to deal with asylum claims. This policy “has shifted beyond the state by both relocating the border outside the state’s territory (externalisation) and delegating border control functions to non-state and third-state actors (outsourcing).”[4] Through third-country agreements, European states focus on shifting the burden to border states instead of burden-sharing. This policy may often come in the form of a safe third country agreement. This agreement transfers the responsibility of a state to process asylum claims to another state – a safe third country. A third country is considered safe if it respects the principle of non-refoulement and treats an asylum seeker in accordance with accepted international standards, such as obeying the Geneva Refugee Convention and Protocol.[5]

An example of this policy being considered successful is Spain and Morocco’s transactional migration agreement.[6] A form of a third-country agreement that many examples I discuss fall into is transactional forced migration. Adamson and Greenhill coined this term and define it as the process surrounding “political deals intended to facilitate and/or forestall engineered cross-border population movements, wherein the parties to the deal do not include the displaced themselves.”[7] In the Spain-Morocco example, “Morocco is also cooperating with its neighbour Spain in efforts to stem the flow of illegal migration by sea with the attendant humanitarian concerns.”[8] Another prominent example is the infamous EU-Turkey deal, where Greece could return new irregular migrants to Turkey in exchange for six billion euros in financial support for Turkey.[9] One of the most extreme examples of this policy is the UK’s current Rwanda Plan, where “anyone entering the UK illegally – as well as those who have arrived illegally since 1 January 2022 – may now be relocated to Rwanda” even if they have never set foot in Rwanda, distinguishing it from the EU-Turkey deal.[10]

Deterrence

To evaluate the effectiveness of the third-country agreement policy, I will first examine whether the policy fulfills its main objective – deterrence. The primary aim of the policy is to deter irregular migrants from entering European states. For example, the goal of the UK’s Rwanda Plan is to “stop the boats” and “deter dangerous and illegal journeys.”[11]  The policy relies on the belief that people claiming to seek asylum in the UK will be deterred if they believe they will be sent to Rwanda. Similar logic applies to all third-country agreements, as European leaders think the threat of being sent away from a European state will deter irregular migrants from making the journey in the first place. However, this policy rarely provides a stable long-term deterrence effect. Many scholars agree that “there is limited evidence to suggest that the Rwanda deal will reduce the number of small boats crossing the Channel.”[12] One of the critical reasons this policy fails to provide deterrence is due to the limited enforcement of these agreements. For example, in 2015, the number of migrants arriving in Greece was approximately 885,386.[13] The EU-Turkey deal was intended to curb this, but only 2,140 people have been returned from Greece to Turkey after the deal.[14] This occurrence is not limited to the EU-Turkey deal, as “just 20 percent of eligible Dublin cases were actually transferred between EU Member States.”[15] Thus, transfer rates are low, and this is due to practical challenges, but also legal obstacles, as many European states are subject to EU and international law, which prevents them from rejecting asylum seekers.

Another reason why deterrence fails in the long run is because it underestimates asylum seekers’ persistence and determination to flee from persecution in their home countries. Gammeltoft-Hansen and Tan state, “refugees remain resourceful despite the plight they are forced to endure, and may exhibit extraordinary resilience in their efforts to find safety and protection.”[16]  For example, in the hope of finding safety in Europe, at least five people died in icy waters in January 2024 near northern France as they tried to traverse the English Channel to Britain.[17] Asylum seekers have to decide whether it is best to stay home where they know they will face persecution or risk fleeing to European countries where it is not certain if they will be granted refugee status. If lethal violence is the main push factor, asylum seekers will not be easily deterred.[18] The latter option is more appealing to asylum seekers, especially since European states have a reputation for not properly enforcing their deterrence measures.  If the policy third-country agreements do not effectively secure their main aim, deterrence, then this questions if the policy truly ameliorates the wickedness of the European migration crisis.

Nonetheless, this policy at times succeeds in yielding the desired deterrence effect, albeit in the short run. Even though I questioned the EU-Turkey deal in achieving deterrence, it is undeniable that the numbers, albeit not significantly, went down when viewing irregular migration flows. The deal is seen as a success in European policy circles as it achieved its aim of deterring people in the short run.[19] However, third-country agreements as a policy will not provide a sustainable or stable deterrence. The aspect of the EU-Turkey deal that contributed most to a decrease in flows was not safe third-country provisions but rather interceptions of migrant boats in the Aegean by the Turkish Coast Guard.[20] According to the Turkish interior ministry, more than 79,000 migrants and refugees were intercepted attempting to cross into Greece during the first four months of 2019—dwarfing the number of people returned under the safe third country agreement.[21]  If deterrence is best achieved through deals that involve interceptions, this is far from a sustainable, long-term solution that appreciates the wickedness of the migration crisis.

Assuming deterrence is even effective under this policy, its efficacy is undermined if it does not adequately deal with the wicked problems interwoven in the European migration crisis. Gammeltoft-Hansen and Tan argue that “while specific deterrence measures may be successful in stemming a particular migration path in the short term…displacement of migration flows towards alternative routes often significantly, if not completely, undermine the effect over time.”[22] They cite the EU-Turkey deal as an example showing that while the number of asylum seekers decreased along the Balkan route, the number of refugees and migrants using the Central Mediterranean route via Egypt or Libya dramatically increased during the same period.[23] Thus, by closing the Greek point of entry the policy did not effectively deter people as they simply found a new route to enter Europe, proving how unsustainable the policy is. Even the Spain-Morocco agreement, which is also viewed as a success, does not come close to dealing with the wickedness of migration. The moment Spain stops complying with Morocco’s demands, the number of asylum seekers will instantly rise at the Spanish border. Already the EU’s deal with Tunisia does not seem to provide a stable deterrent, as MEP Jeroen Lenaers of the European People’s Party, has openly denounced lagging results as “arrivals continue to increase” after the conclusion of the deal.[24] Not to mention the exorbitant costs countries face with this policy. For example, Italy had to pay Libya five billion dollars in 2007 in a negotiation regarding irregular migration.[25]  Currently, as of December 2023, the UK government has spent a total of £240 million to Rwanda, and more is planned to be sent on a yearly basis.[26]

The policy of third-country agreements by European states wrongly focuses on one criterion: reducing numbers. Viewing the European migration crisis from the one problem-solving perspective of reducing numbers is a gross oversimplification of the complexity of the wicked problems at play. Wicked problems, due to their complex nature, cannot ever be fully solved, but there are better and worse ways to handle them. The wicked problem of border security in the European migration crisis requires policies that move beyond the logic of deterrence. The European migration crisis is a structural, long-term phenomenon that requires policies that transcend short-term objectives. The policy of third-country agreements is a crisis-by-crisis approach rooted in short run deterrence logic, which provides patchy results at best. Irregular migration to Europe will never entirely be stopped, but instead of trying to prevent migrants from coming through these agreements, European states should employ a more long run sustainable policy of addressing the root causes of irregular migration or focusing inwards on its asylum systems instead of outwards. As Moreno-Lax and Pedersen state, “The short-term European goal of preventing asylum seeker flows thereby risks compromising the stated long-term goal of tackling the root causes of displacement, which is sacrificed in the altar of externalised ‘integrated border management.’”[27]  Externalization policies are not new, despite each third-country agreement being presented as a new, innovative solution. Third-country agreements have existed for decades, and the European migration crisis still exists and is mutating in different forms, proving this deterrence-based policy did not adequately address the crisis or the wicked problem of border security.

Weaponization of migration

A key aspect of what makes wicked problems so complex is that attempted solutions “after being implemented, will generate waves of consequences over an extended -virtually an unbounded- period of time.”[28] When evaluating a potential solution, in this case, a policy, I aim to determine if “the next day’s consequences of the solution may yield utterly undesirable repercussions which outweigh the intended advantages or the advantages accomplished hitherto.[29] I posit that the policy of third-country agreements in attempting to tackle the wicked problem of border security in the European migration crisis inadvertently creates another wicked problem: the weaponization of migration. Thus, by focusing on short-term deterrence logic this helps the probability of long- term failures, specifically migration weaponization.

Greenhill significantly elevated the discourse surrounding the issue of the weaponization of migration, emphasizing its pertinence as a wicked problem. She underscores the compelling incentives for states to “create, manipulate, or simply exploit migration crises, at least in part, to influence the behavior of target states.”[30] Coercive engineered migration is pertinent to understanding the wicked problem of migration weaponization: “Cross-border population movements that are deliberately created or manipulated by state or non-state actors in order to induce political, military and/or economic concessions from a target state or states.”[31] It is important in the context of the policy of third-country agreements that Greenhill asserts the incentives are particularly compelling for weak states, as they lack the recourse for traditional methods of influence.[32] Thus, the threat of using migrants as weapons can be more effective than unsuccessfully attempting to extract concessions using military means.[33] An infamous example of coercive engineered migration was in 2004 when the then leader of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, threatened the EU to lift remaining sanctions and financially assist Libya in exchange for cooperation on the migration issue.[34]

I will now show the connection between the policy of third-country agreements and the wicked problem of weaponization of migration. Third-country agreements as a policy are ineffective in addressing the wickedness of the European migration crisis as they grant the third countries disproportionate amounts of power, which can be used to weaponize migration. For example, Libya has been weaponizing or threatening to weaponize migration against Italy and the EU since 2004. In 2008, Italy and Libya signed a migration deal, in which Italy agreed to pay Libya five billion dollars to stop the flow of African migrants to Europe.[35] This deal gave Libya’s leader, Gaddafi, considerable leverage as in 2010, he threatened to “turn Europe black” if the EU did not comply with his demands, such as lifting arms sanctions and providing aid.[36] Additionally, during the 2011 Arab Spring, Gaddafi tried to deter the EU from providing support to the rebellion by warning the EU would be “bombing a wall which stood in the way of African migration to Europe.”[37]  Per Greenhill’s theory, Gaddafi acted as a generator as he threatened to create cross-border population movements unless the EU complied with his demands.[38] However, Libya has acted as an opportunist as well, proving that third-country agreements can promote distinct types of challengers. Despite Libya’s threats, Italy did not learn its lesson as the two nations signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Migration with Libya in 2017. Italy provides Libya with financial support to prevent irregular migration to Europe by intercepting migrants at sea, establishing temporary refuge within its borders to screen asylum seekers, and repatriating individuals willing to return to their countries of origin. The EU has also financially assisted Libya, allocating 57.2 million euros for “Integrated Border and Migration Management in Libya” since 2017.[39]  Libya capitalized on Europe’s migration crisis in 2015 by negotiating this deal following the blueprint set out by the EU-Turkey deal. Thus, according to Greenhill’s theory, Libya acted as an opportunist as it did not create the migration crisis but carefully exploited it for its own gain.[40] As Greenhill states, “a crisis can help level the playing field, enhance the credibility of weak actors, increase the potency of their threats, and thereby improve their coercive capabilities.”[41] Another notable threat was from Ergodan during the EU-Turkey deal, as he threatened to “open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way” if the EU did not stop calling his Syrian offensive “an invasion.”[42]

The problem with the policy of third-country agreements is that the third countries are aware of Europe’s struggle to deal with migration, so they can exploit Europe’s weakness and keep asking for concessions. Turkey knew it had the upper hand during negotiations with the EU and did not just ask for money but also political concessions, such as making the EU reopen talks about Turkish EU membership.  Thus, I take it as far as to say no partnership is safe from the threat of coercive engineered migration. Even the Spain-Morocco partnership, which is seen as a policy success, has been subject to the weaponization of migration. This was seen in 2021, as Morocco acted as a generator by threatening Spain there would be “consequences” after the leader of the Polisario Front, Brahim Ghali, who is subject to a Moroccan arrest warrant for terrorist acts, was admitted for treatment in a Spanish hospital.[43] Morocco weaponized migration by letting down its guard on the border with Ceuta, which allowed thousands of migrants to enter Spain. Thus, the short run benefit of reducing the numbers of irregular migrants to Spain caused the long run problem of migration weaponization, which is a problem Spain has been facing for years and will continue to do so under this policy.

Another example was in 2022, Morocco shifted Spain’s Western Sahara policy by creating a border crisis.[44] This is an example of exportive engineered migration, as Morocco engineered migration to fortify a domestic political position.[45] Thus, despite the partnership between the two nations spanning decades, this failed to deter Morocco from using migrants as an instrument to exert pressure on Spain. Spain and Morocco will continue to perpetuate the same pattern of engagement as they have done since the late 1990s, so Spain will always have to comply with Moroccan demands to curb irregular migration flows. In 2015, countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon tangentially benefitted from the post-2015 European fear, allowing them to negotiate migration deals without threatening refugee arrivals due to European trauma.[46] It may not be 2015, but Europe will continue to expect migration crises, as seen since the influx of Ukrainians refugees and predictions of future migration due to climate change.

European states must decide what wicked problem they want to prioritize. The policy of third-country agreements may address the wicked problem of border security, albeit I argue not effectively, but it further propels and ignites the wicked problem of weaponization of migration. Looking at the numbers, it is undeniable that the Spain-Morocco partnership reduced the number of irregular migrants entering Spain. However, the question is: how sustainable is this deterrence effect, and is the cost of potential weaponization worth it? I have argued that this deterrence effect is far from sustainable, and if an over-30-year partnership is susceptible to weaponization, then all partnerships are under threat. Thus, the EU-Tunisia MOU is also under threat of weaponization of migration, and so is the UK vis a vis Rwanda. Already, Tunisia is wielding significant power against the EU as in October 2023, Tunisian president Kais Saied rejected financial support from the EU, claiming the money “was a small amount,” and Saied was unsatisfied that the EU “lacks respect.”[47] The European Commission said it would disburse 127 million euros to Tunisia as part of their deal to curb illegal immigration to Europe.[48]  However, rejected what the EU announced, saying that “the proposal conflicts with the memorandum of understanding signed in July.”[49] The July deal included a pledge of 1 billion euros in aid to Tunisia. During the dispute between the two parties, a record number of migrants arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa from Tunisia and North Africa.[50]  However, migrant numbers have been rising in many places in Europe, but I still question if this was a coincidence and is potentially proof of Tunisia weaponizing migration against the EU. Thus, Tunisia would not have been able to weaponize migration as easily against the EU and extract financial concessions without the third-country agreement between them. The agreement increased Tunisia’s legitimacy on the negotiating table by giving Tunisia a platform to increase its power in migration diplomacy. Hence, threats to alter or suspend third-country agreements in response to political disagreements or disputes can create a dynamic where migration becomes a tool for exerting influence. Due to geographical limitations, Rwanda may not directly weaponize migration by sending migrants to the UK. Still, it has the power to cause instability in the region and potentially threaten the UK. The weaponization of migration should not be underestimated, and I argue that the policy of third-country agreements is ineffective due to underestimating the power of migration weaponization that it is facilitating. As Greenhill’s research shows, coercers achieved at least some of their objectives in about three-quarters of the cases. In more than half the cases, coercers obtained all or most of what they sought.”[51]

Hypocrisy costs

Another significant cost of the policy of third-country agreements is hypocrisy costs. Greenhill defines hypocrisy costs as “those symbolic political costs that can be imposed when there exists a real or perceived disparity between a professed commitment to liberal values and norms and demonstrated actions that contravene such a commitment.”[52] Third-country agreements often violate human rights, contradicting the liberal democratic ideals many European states promote. However, I previously argued that the policy fails to provide an effective deterrence effect, as although European states want to keep migrants out, states rarely send many migrants back due to legal constraints. Nonetheless, just because European states are constrained by international law does not mean they do not incur hypocrisy costs. In fact, this policy creates a lose-lose situation: if the European state fails to keep unwanted immigration out, it fails the policy’s original aim of deterrence. However, if European states do manage to keep migrants out, this is usually a result of illiberal means, potentially incurring hypocrisy costs. Thus, I want to ensure that I do not appear contradictory by introducing the drawback of hypocrisy costs to the policy, as even if deterrence is not effective, hypocrisy costs may still be incurred because human rights organizations have criticized European states for making deals with authoritarian leaders.

Hathaway argues that the right of states to remove refugees is conditional if the safe third country implements and respects the rights of the refugee under the Refugee Convention or any other legal instruments it is subject to.[53]  I use Hathaway’s formulation of the expectations of safe third countries and the principle of non-refoulement as a baseline to determine if third-country agreements have abided by human rights expectations. For example, the EU-Turkey deal rested on the notion that Turkey is a safe third country. However, Turkey’s safe third-country status has been questioned, mainly due to the surge in Turkish state violence against minorities since 2017.[54]  Greek courts in early 2018 found that Turkey was not a safe third country, delaying the number of migrants that could be sent back.[55] Thus, the deal was ineffective in offering sustainable deterrence and displayed hypocritical behavior. Hypocrisy costs were incurred as, the Greek national court, not just human rights organizations, condemned state behavior for human rights, thereby highlighting the discrepancy between the liberal values European states must obey by law versus the restrictive agenda leaders want to pursue. The UK’s Rwanda Plan is an even more extreme example, as the UK’s Supreme Court has declared the policy unlawful, and the European Court of Human Rights has also prevented the first scheduled flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda.[56] The policy also goes against the principles of non-refoulement due to the severe risk asylum seekers would be returned to their home countries from Rwanda.[57] Instead of listening to the Supreme Court, the government tried to create legislation to enforce its Rwanda plan. Thus, the Rwanda Plan is a policy that incurred huge hypocrisy costs, as both domestically and internationally the government was being rebuked.  The UK is one of the leading proponents of liberal democracies globally, yet this policy goes against the values it espouses.

The MoU between Libya and Italy is laden with human rights abuses. Firstly, Libya is not a party to the UN Refugee Convention and its Protocol, which already raises legal and ethical questions about whether migrants should be sent to Libya from Italy. UNHCR expressed concern, stating ‘it is far from clear that Italy has taken the necessary precautions to ensure that it is not sending back any bona fide refugees to Libya, which cannot be considered a safe country of asylum.”[58] Additionally, UNHCR stated that refugees being removed from Libya to their country of origin violate the principle of non-refoulement.[59] Both Italy and the EU have provided technical and financial support to Libya to stop migration flows to Europe, but a UN report states the migrants that are intercepted at sea and sent back face “murder, enforced disappearance, torture, enslavement, sexual violence, rape, and other inhumane acts … in connection with their arbitrary detention.”[60] Similarly, an ICC prosecutor stated crimes against migrants in Libya “may constitute crimes against humanity and war crimes.”[61] Human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch have argued that the EU and Italy are thus complicit in such crimes.[62] Hence, the Libya case study is a salient example of exposing the hypocrisy displayed by European leaders, as “the anxiety over a refugee invasion from Africa reveals the contradictions present in Europe today, where, on the one hand, the moral imperative of universal emancipation is proclaimed, but on the other, policies and practice continue the trend of refusing a safe haven to the very refugees they have helped to create.”[63] Beyond the case of Libya, the EU is facing scrutiny for atrocious human rights abuses in Tunisia by EU funded security forces.[64]

Hence, European states are seen as hypocritical as they advocate for human rights protection on the world stage yet are knowingly putting migrants in a situation where their rights are violated. Moreno-Lax and Pederson argue that “EU border externalization entrenches forms of undemocratic governance in third countries, empowering undemocratic actors, transforming their relative weight within domestic structures, and weakening democratic channels of scrutiny, accountability, and power control.”[65] Hence, the EU may espouse democratic values and condemn authoritarianism, but concerning migration, they are more than willing to shift the responsibility to third countries and embolden their undemocratic, illiberal practices to keep migration out of Fortress Europe. As stated by Galeotti, European states are “underscoring a fundamental point, that authoritarian regimes can get not only a free pass from the EU on many issues but also lucrative assistance, so long as they continue to keep migrants out.”[66]

Nonetheless, I argue that hypocrisy costs are a less significant drawback of the policy than other drawbacks, such as the weaponization of migration. My reasoning is based on strong anti-immigrant sentiment in the countries where this policy is used. For example, data by Pew suggests that “Greeks and Italians are also the most likely to be concerned about immigration from outside the EU (84% and 76%, respectively, are concerned about this).”[67] I am not arguing that European states are predominantly anti-immigrant, but rather that anti-refugee/migrant camps in European states are strong and current populist governments in Europe feed on anti-immigrant sentiment. Migration has moved from low politics to high politics and is now at the center of many political debates.[68]  The Leave campaign during Brexit attributes its success partially due to exploiting xenophobic views in British society when it came to migration.[69] As stated by Greenhill, “popular political discourses within the EU draw upon traditional nationalistic sentiments and xenophobic assertions that current waves of migrants and refugees reduce national living standards by siphoning away social resources from ‘real’ citizens, taking employment away from more qualified applicants, bringing tensions from their home state with them and committing a disproportionate amount of crime.”[70] Thus, it is irrelevant if migrants pose a real threat, but “if they are perceived as fundamentally threatening to their security, culture or livelihood, anxious and motivated individuals and groups will mobilize to oppose their acceptance.”[71] Thus, due to migrant opposition, hypocrisy costs are less of a drawback to the policy of third-country agreements as many European citizens, particularly those who border the Mediterranean, are not concerned with migrant rights or if states are being hypocritical, so it is less likely the cost will be imposed.

Likewise, while European states are acting hypocritically, it does not mean hypocrisy costs are incurred. For the cost to be incurred, another actor needs to condemn the state for displaying hypocritical behavior. However, this policy is used globally from the US to Australia, thereby shielding European states from hypocrisy costs as many states themselves engage in the same behavior. Thus, it is usually human rights groups that condemn European states for their hypocritical behavior, which holds less weight compared to if another state did the same.

Examining the popularity of the policy among European leaders

This paper has primarily focused on evaluating the effectiveness of third-country agreements and concluding that the policy fails to address the wicked problem of border security and, in turn, creates significant drawbacks, such as the wicked problem of weaponization of migration and hypocrisy costs. Thus, this raises the question why the policy is so widespread in Europe. Thus far, my analysis has been centered on a long run perspective that aims to address the wickedness of the crisis. I assumed the European migration crisis is a long-term structural phenomenon; thereby, my evaluation of the policy of third-country agreements is predicated on a long run rather than a short run analysis. For this section, I am viewing the policy from the eyes of the European leaders who created and implemented the policy. Hence, I will now view the policy from a short run perspective, as the actors involved are short-term political actors.

In essence, governments focus on the short term, as democratic countries are all plagued by short-termism. Offe argues in Europe Entrapped that democratically elected governments cannot address the structural issues afflicting the European Union because citizens are focused on the short-term, stating “the problem is one of ‘time inconsistency’: The implementation of promising long-term strategies is obstructed by the failure of ‘presentist’ electorates fixated on a short-term time horizon to grant them green light, unless political leaders can persuade their constituencies to adopt a more far-sighted perspective.”[72] Thus, due to how democracies are structured, it is not politically palatable to campaign on long-term strategies. Politicians’ primary goal is to get elected and to stay in power, so when it comes to migration management, politicians are not incentivized to devise policies focused on a long-term perspective on migration that addresses structural and wicked problems. As Streeck puts it, “long-term solutions are not even attempted because short-term problems take priority; holes keep appearing that can only be plugged by making new holes elsewhere.”[73] In the case of the policy of third-country agreements, the “new holes” are the wicked problem of migration weaponization.

I will now examine the statements of European leaders to showcase how short-term political perspectives connect with the externalization policy of third-country agreements. Meloni states in regard to her support of the MoU with Tunisia that “work[ing] on the external dimension and stop[ping] the illegal departures of immigrants” is “the only way to seriously address the problem.”[74] She continues, “this is what European citizens are asking of us.”[75] Thus, European leaders recognize that citizens want solutions, and leaders believe third-country agreements can yield short-term tangible results. Von der Leyen echoes Meloni, stating that “irregular migration is a European challenge” that “needs a European answer.”[76] This European answer is not dramatic structural reform on fixing Europe’s asylum systems or improving legal pathways to residency or citizenship. Instead, externalization persists as the preferred approach and will likely remain so: “We want our agreement with Tunisia to be a template. A blueprint for the future. For partnerships with other countries in the region.”[77]  The UK is following suit, as Sunak states, “In order to fully solve this problem, we need a deterrent. We need to be able to say pretty simply and unequivocally that if you come to our country illegally, you won’t get to stay.”[78] For European leaders, “an immediate reduction in irregular arrivals is sufficient for a deal to be considered successful, and a partner country to be cooperative and effective.”[79] Thus, while I criticize the EU-Turkey deal and the Italy-Libya partnership, in EU circles, these deals are considered a success when viewed merely from the lens of a short-term number.

Thus, depending on what lens you evaluate the policy it is possible to view it as a success, which adds to the wickedness. These deals manage to decrease numbers, albeit for a short period. According to figures provided by the Italian government, between 5 May and 31 December 2009, 3,185 migrants landed on Italian coasts, compared with 31,281 over the same period in 2008.[80] Other factors besides the Italy-Libya agreement affected the numbers, but it is undeniable that the agreement played an important role. In large part, though, this reduction was not due to migrants being deterred but because they were intercepted at sea and returned to Libya. Nonetheless, now Italy is facing the same problem it did back in 2023, but instead of Libya being the main partner, now it is Tunisia. It is the same story but slightly different characters, as European leaders use the same policy of third-country agreements as a temporary band-aid to reduce numbers. As Hansen states, “‘root cause’ approaches are often eclipsed by the more ‘instant impact’ control policies.”[81]

European leaders are not ignorant that the policy of third-country agreements is a short-term solution. The crisis-by-crisis approach is more politically appealing than undergoing structural reform. As previously stated, migration has moved from low politics to high politics. Polling suggests that migration will be a central issue in the upcoming June 2024 elections, where it is predicted right-wing, anti-immigrant parties will significantly benefit.[82] Thus, since migration is now, at times, the center of political discussions, European leaders must look at least optically that they are addressing the issue. As stated previously, European citizens, particularly those who border the Mediterranean, are not open to refugees and asylum seekers. Not only are they not open, but European citizens are very biased, and “pundits, politicians and even some policy makers may argue that migrants who are from different religious, linguistic and ethnic backgrounds than the majority in their newly adopted homelands are a danger to societal security.”[83] For instance, during the 2015 migration crisis, a median of 59% across 10 EU countries voiced concern about the prospect of increased terrorism, and 50% believed refugees are a burden to society because they take jobs and social benefits that would otherwise be available to citizens of each nation.[84] Mediterranean states saw refugees from Syria and Iraq as a major threat: 69% of Greece and 65% of Italy.[85] Pew also concluded that negative views towards refugees are tied to negative views about Muslims.[86] Thus, this explains why Ukrainian refugees in 2022 were more welcome than Syrians in 2015.

Thus, the refugees and asylum seekers are not always viewed as people in desperate need of protection but as a national liable infringing on cultural identity and economic opportunities. European leaders, instead of trying to change the perceived negative image of migrants, capitalize on this xenophobic sentiment and use it to justify their externalization policies. Most importantly, these policies, such as third-country agreements, do not need to accomplish much. A short-term reduction in numbers will suffice. Overwhelmingly, regardless of one’s position regarding refugees, most Europeans believed that the EU did a poor job in handling the 2015 refugee crisis. This includes a staggering 94% of Greeks and 88% of Swedes.[87] Disapproval was high among many segments of society but exceptionally high among people with favorable views of the anti-immigrant parties in Britain (UK Independence Party), Germany (Alternative for Germany), and the Netherlands (Party for Freedom).[88] Thus, European leaders recognize now that, at least optically, they need to show they are taking a hard line on migration to assure the public there will not be a repeat of 2015. This is why the policy of third-country agreements is so appealing: politicians need a fast reduction in numbers, and it does not matter if it’s not sustainable. More sustainable policies addressing the problem’s wickedness, such as expanding legal channels for migrants to access the EU’s labor market, are not as politically desirable as the immediate impact of third-country agreements.

If the policy of third-country agreements is more about optics than about effectively dealing with the European migration crisis, this begs the question of whether the policy is an instrument of political theater. To properly answer this question, more time and research need to be dedicated beyond what this paper can offer, but I want to briefly touch on it as it pertains to my second research question, which is why European leaders implement this policy. In his book Border Games, Andreas outlines in Chapter 1 his thesis of border enforcement as political theater.[89] The book focuses on the US-Mexico border, but Andreas describes the border as a “political stage” that can also apply to the European context.[90] In essence, what Andreas means by political theater is that actors enforce certain policies not because of their practical effectiveness but for their symbolic significance. Thus, the policy of third-country agreements is not just to prevent migrants from coming to Europe but also to send a message to the public about the government’s commitment to border security. If we assume the policy of third-country agreements is more about optics, then this explains why leaders care less about incurring hypocrisy costs. If this policy is “for show,” then it does not matter how effective the policy is. It only matters if the public believes their leaders are doing something about combating the migration crisis. For instance, is the Rwanda Plan a product of political theater, or is it about creating an effective policy to deal with irregular migration in the UK?

Conclusion

Thus, by viewing the European migration crisis as a microcosm of a wicked problem or as a wicked problem itself, I determined that the policy of third-country agreements fails to treat the crisis as the long-term structural issue it is. The policy is a product of short run reasoning which fails to address the wickedness of the crisis. Most of my paper viewed the European migration crisis as a complex problem that begets policies that transcend the logic of deterrence. Firstly, I evaluated the policy’s effectiveness on its intended aim of deterrence and concluded that third-country agreements do not provide a sustainable, long-term deterrent effect. The policy deters migrants only in the short run, and even then, results are patchy at best, as seen by the small number of migrants returned from Greece to Turkey under the EU-Turkey deal. Next, I assert that the policy of third-country agreements in trying to address the wicked problem of border security exacerbates the wicked problem of weaponization of migration. I argue that this is the most critical drawback of the policy, as migration weaponization should not be underestimated, and its wickedness entails a whole host of other problems. Migration weaponization is also a notable example portraying how short run deterrence logics leads to creating a bigger problem in the long run. Lastly, I argue that the policy incurs hypocrisy costs but argue that this drawback is less significant compared to the weaponization of migration due to anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe overriding human rights concerns at times.

For my second research question, my analysis was rooted in short run rather than long run logic, as I viewed the policy from the perspective of the leaders who implement these agreements. I concluded that the policy fulfills the short-term political aims of the politicians implementing the policy. European leaders need to look optically that they are being proactive in tackling migration crises and need to curb migration flows, albeit for a limited period. Thus, the policy of third-country agreements is seen as a politically effective solution as politicians are not aiming at adequately addressing the wicked problems at play but rather putting a band aid over the problem as by the time the problem resurfaces, another political actor will need to deal with it. Through my analysis of political leaders, I infer that what makes the crisis increasingly wicked is that depending what lens you employ -short run or long run- the success of the policy is evaluated differently.

Recent developments with the EU’s MoU with Tunisia show that this policy appears to be here to stay. The deal with Tunisia already is displaying issues of weaponized migration and hypocrisy costs. Moving beyond the logic of deterrence will be a challenge, but it is the only way to tackle the wickedness of the European migration crisis. Complex problems need innovative solutions, and Europe needs to choose how it wants to deal with a recurring policy crisis. It remains to be seen how the new EU Migration and Asylum Pact will play out and what this means for the policy of third-country agreements, but unless Europe shifts its mindset to the long run, then these wicked problems will only resurface.

1 Horst W. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning,” Policy Sciences 4, no. 2 (June 1973): 160, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01405730

[2] Karin Geuijen et al., “Creating Public Value in Global Wicked Problems,” Public Management Review 19, no. 5 (August 25, 2016): 622, https://doi.org/10.1080/14719037.2016.1192163

[3] Rittel and Webber, “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning,” 162.

[4]Agnese Pacciardi and Joakim Berndtsson, “EU Border Externalisation and Security Outsourcing: Exploring the Migration Industry in Libya,” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 48, no. 17 (April 13, 2022): 4010, https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183x.2022.2061930

[5]“Safe Third Country,” European Commission Migration and Home Affairs, accessed April 17, 2024, https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/networks/european-migration-network-emn/emn-asylum-and-migration-glossary/glossary/safe-third-country_en

[6] Kelly M Greenhill and Hugo Brady, “Arriving at a Crossroads: Can Europe Avoid Replaying the Policy Failures of the 2014-16 Migration Crisis?,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, publ. online March 2024, https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2024/03/21/arriving-at-a-crossroads-can-europe-avoid-replaying-the-policy-failures-of-the-2014-16-migration-crisis/

[7] Fiona B Adamson and Kelly M Greenhill, “Deal-Making, Diplomacy and Transactional Forced Migration,” International Affairs 99, no. 2 (March 6, 2023): 709, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiad017

[8] Commission Communication on the monitoring and evaluation mechanism of the third countries in the field of the fight against illegal immigration. COM(2005) 352 final, of 28 July, paras. 5.1

[9] Kelly M. Greenhill, “Open Arms behind Barred Doors: Fear, Hypocrisy and Policy Schizophrenia in the European Migration Crisis,” European Law Journal 22, no. 3 (May 2016): 327, https://doi.org/10.1111/eulj.12179.

[10] “Q&A: The UK’s Policy to Send Asylum Seekers to Rwanda,” Migration Observatory, accessed April 16, 2024, https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-uks-policy-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda/

[11] Megan Specia, “Three Myths around the U.K.’s Rwanda Push for Asylum Seekers,” The New York Times, publ. online January 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/uk-rwanda-asylum.html

[12] Marley Morris and Amreen Qureshi, “UNDERSTANDING THE RISE IN CHANNEL CROSSINGS,” Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), 2019, 23, http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep53541.

[13] Risk analysis for 2016 | Frontex, accessed April 17, 2024, https://www.frontex.europa.eu/assets/Publications/Risk_Analysis/Annula_Risk_Analysis_2016.pdf , 6

[14] Angeliki Dimitriadi and Asli Selin Okyay, “Are Partnerships with Third Countries an Effective Way Forward for EU Migration Management?” ELIAMEP, November 2023, 10,  https://www.eliamep.gr/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Perspectives-2-Migration.pdf.

[15] Susan Fratzke, “International Experience Suggests Safe Third-Country Agreement Would Not Solve the U.S.-Mexico Border Crisis,” Migration Policy, publ. online February 2022, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/safe-third-country-agreement-would-not-solve-us-mexico-border-crisis

[16]Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen and Nikolas F. Tan, “The End of the Deterrence Paradigm? Future Directions for Global Refugee Policy,” Journal on Migration and Human Security 5, no. 1 (February 16, 2017): 43, https://doi.org/10.14240/jmhs.v5i1.73

[17]Aurelien Breeden and Megan Specia, “At Least 5 People Die Trying to Cross Icy English Channel,” The New York Times, publ. online. January 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/world/europe/migrants-die-english-channel.html.

[18] Helen Hintjens and Ali Bilgic, “The EU’s Proxy War on Refugees,” State Crime Journal 8, no. 1 (January 1, 2019), 87, https://doi.org/10.13169/statecrime.8.1.0080.

[19] Dimitriadi and Okyay, “Are Partnerships with Third Countries an Effective Way Forward for EU Migration Management,” 20

[20] Susan Fratzke, “International Experience Suggests Safe Third-Country Agreement Would Not Solve the U.S.-Mexico Border Crisis,” Migration Policy, publ. online February 2022, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/safe-third-country-agreement-would-not-solve-us-mexico-border-crisis

[21] Ibid

[22] Gammeltoft-Hansen and Tan, “The End of the Deterrence Paradigm? Future Directions for Global Refugee Policy,” 43.

[23] Ibid

[24]Mared Gwyn Jones, “Eu Lawmakers Clash over Controversial Tunisia Migration Deal,” euronews, 2023, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/12/eu-lawmakers-clash-over-tunisia-migration-deal-denounce-lack-of-results

[25] Gammeltoft-Hansen and Tan, “The End of the Deterrence Paradigm? Future Directions for Global Refugee Policy,” 44.

[26] “Q&A: The UK’s Policy to Send Asylum Seekers to Rwanda,” Migration Observatory, accessed April 16, 2024, https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-uks-policy-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda/

[27] Violeta Lax Moreno, and Martin  Lemberg Pedersen, “Border-Induced Displacement: The Ethical and Legal Implications of Distance-Creation through Externalization,” Questions of International Law (February 28, 2019), 17,http://www.qil-qdi.org/border-induced-displacement-the-ethical-and-legal-implications-of-distance-creation-through-externalization/.

[28] Rittel and Webber, “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning,” 163.

[29] Ibid

[30] Kelly M. Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2016),  2.

[31] Ibid, 13

[32] Ibid, 2

[33] Ibid, 3

[34] Ibid, 331

[35] Mark Galeotti, “How Migrants Got Weaponized,” Foreign Affairs, June 26, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/belarus/how-migrants-got-weaponized

 [36]Kelly M. Greenhill, “Morocco ‘weaponized’ migration to punish Spain. That’s more common than you think,” publ. online June 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/01/morocco-weaponized-migration-punish-spain-thats-more-common-than-you-think/

[37]“How Libya Holds the Key to Solving Europe’s Migration Crisis,” BBC News, publ. online July 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44709974

[38] Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign, 23

[39]“Italy Reups Funding to Force Migrants Back to Libya,” Human Rights Watch, publ. online February 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/01/italy-reups-funding-force-migrants-back-libya

[40] Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy, 30

[41] Ibid, 23

[42] Galeotti, “How Migrants Got Weaponized.”

[43] Aritz Parra, “An Ailing Sahrawi Leader Shakes Spain and Morocco’s Alliance,” AP News, publ. online May 2021, https://apnews.com/article/europe-spain-morocco-africa-health-f14419ce2f00ea07b0ac5c1d5c49e83c

[44]Ruben Andersson and David Keen, “‘Weapons of Mass Migration’: How States Exploit the Failure of Migration Policies,” The Guardian, publ. online December 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/weapons-of-mass-migration-how-states-exploit-the-failure-of-migration-policies

[45] Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy, 14

[46] Kelsey P Norman, “The Post-2015 Migration Paradigm in the Mediterranean,” Chapter. In Reluctant Reception: Refugees, Migration and Governance in the Middle East and North Africa (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020), 172.

[47]Bouazza Ben Bouazza and Sam Metz, “Tunisia Rejects European Funds and Says They Fall Short of a Deal for Migration and Financial Aid,” AP News, publ. online October 2023, https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-europe-migration-851cf35271d2c52aea067287066ef247

[48] Ibid

[49] Tarek Amara, “Tunisia Rejects EU Financial Aid, Casting Doubt on an Immigration Deal | Reuters,” Reuters, publ. online October 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/tunisia-rejects-eu-financial-aid-casting-doubt-an-immigration-deal-2023-10-02/

[50] Ibid

[51] Kelly M. Greenhill, “Morocco ‘weaponized’ migration to punish Spain. That’s more common than you think,” June 1, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/01/morocco-weaponized-migration-punish-spain-thats-more-common-than-you-think/

[52]  Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy, 4

[53]James C. Hathaway, “The Rights of Refugees under International Law,” 2005, 332-3 https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511614859

[54] Hintjens and Bilgic, “The EU’s Proxy War on Refugees,” p. 85

[55] Dimitriadi and Okyay, “Are Partnerships with Third Countries an Effective Way Forward for EU Migration Management?”10

[56] “Q&A: The UK’s Policy to Send Asylum Seekers to Rwanda,” Migration Observatory, accessed April 16, 2024, https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-uks-policy-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda/

[57] Emilie McDonnell, “UK Supreme Court Finds UK-Rwanda Asylum Scheme Unlawful,” Human Rights Watch,  publ. online November 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/11/15/uk-supreme-court-finds-uk-rwanda-asylum-scheme-unlawful

[58] UNHCR Press Release, ‘UNHCR deeply concerned over Lampedusa deportations’, 18 Mar. 2005.

[59] Ibid

[60] “Italy Reups Funding to Force Migrants Back to Libya,” Human Rights Watch, February 1, 2023, https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/02/01/italy-reups-funding-force-migrants-back-libya

[61] Ibid

[62] Ibid

[63]Marco Scalvini, “Humanitarian Wars and Rejected Refugees,” OpenDemocracy website, 17 April 2011, accessed 17 April 2024, http://www.opendemocracy.net/marco-scalvini/humanitarian-wars-and-rejected-refugees

[64] “Europe has questions to answer over migrant abuse in Tunisia, say MEPs and activists,” The Guardian, September 20, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/sep/20/europe-has-questions-to-answer-over-migrant-abuse-in-tunisia-say-meps-and-activists

[65] Moreno and Pedersen, “Border-Induced Displacement: The Ethical and Legal Implications of Distance-Creation through Externalization,” 17

[66] Galeotti, “How Migrants Got Weaponized.”

[67]Jacob Poushter, “Refugees Stream into Europe, Where They Are Not Welcomed with Open Arms,” Pew Research Center, April 24, 2015, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2015/04/24/refugees-stream-into-europe-where-they-are-not-welcomed-with-open-arms/

[68] Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy,  5

[69] Eugene Quinn, “The Refugee and Migrant Crisis: Europe’s Challenge,” Studies: An Irish Quarterly Review 105, no. 419 (2016): 275–85. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24871398, 275

[70] Kelly M. Greenhill, “Open Arms behind Barred Doors: Fear, Hypocrisy and Policy Schizophrenia in the European Migration Crisis,” European Law Journal 22, no. 3 (May 2016): 317–32, https://doi.org/10.1111/eulj.12179, 323.

[71] Ibid, 324

[72] Claus Offe, Europe Entrapped (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015), 42.

[73] Wolfgang Streeck, Buying Time: The Delayed Crisis of Democratic Capitalism (London: Verso, 2014), 14.

[74] “President Meloni’s Press Statement during Her Visit to Lampedusa with President von Der Leyen,” www.governo.it, September 17, 2023, https://www.governo.it/en/articolo/president-meloni-s-press-statement-during-her-visit-lampedusa-president-von-der-leyen/23599

[75] Ibid

[76]“Press Statement by President von Der Leyen with Italian Prime Minister Meloni in Lampedusa,” European Commission – European Commission, September 17, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_23_4502

[77] “Tunisia Migration Deal a Model for Others, EU’s von der Leyen Says,” Reuters, July 23, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/tunisia-migration-deal-model-others-eus-von-der-leyen-says-2023-07-23/.

[78] Eleni Courea, “Rishi Sunak Defends Rwanda Plan during GB News Q&A Session,” The Guardian, publ. online February 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/12/sunak-defends-rwanda-plan-to-doubtful-tv-audience

[79] Dimitriadi and Okyay, “Are Partnerships with Third Countries an Effective Way Forward for EU Migration Management?” 20.

[80] Governo Berlusconi (2010) Fermare l’immigrazione clandestina: stop agli sbarchi, espulsioni più semplici, www.governoberlusconi.it/page.php?idf=450&ids=452

[81] Thomas Graae Gammeltoft-Hansen, “Outsourcing Migration Management: EU, Power, and the External Dimension of Asylum and Immigration Policy,” Danish Institute for International Studies, 2006,  2

[82] Nicolas Camut, “Right Wing Set for Big Gains in 2024 EU Election, Polling Shows,” POLITICO, publ. online August 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/european-election-2024-polls-right-wing-big-gains/

[83] Greenhill, “Open Arms behind Barred Doors: Fear, Hypocrisy and Policy Schizophrenia in the European Migration Crisis,” 323.

[84] Jacob Poushter, “European Opinions of the Refugee Crisis in 5 Charts,” Pew Research Center, publ. online September 2016, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/16/european-opinions-of-the-refugee-crisis-in-5-charts/

[85] Ibid

[86] Ibid

[87] Ibid

[88] Ibid

[89] Peter Andreas, Border Games (Cornell: Cornell University Press, 2022),  7.

[90] Ibid

Since 2001, the Eastern Mediterranean has been one of the key gateways for refugees, asylum seekers, and migrants seeking to enter Europe from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. This route encompasses crossings to Greece, Cyprus (and to a lesser extent Bulgaria), primarily via Türkiye, but increasingly also from Lebanon and Libya. Against the backdrop of regional instability, the Eastern Mediterranean route has remained a constant point of attention for European Union (EU) policymakers—especially after 2015, when the Syrian refugee crisis thrust it into the spotlight.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic and global border closures briefly slowed movement, recent years have seen a steady uptick in arrivals, particularly in Greece, with Cyprus also experiencing record numbers of irregular entries compared to previous periods. Both countries face complex, mixed migratory flows, still largely transiting through Türkiye but with a noticeable surge in movements originating from Lebanon and Egypt.

The reports produced under the ‘Mediterranean Migration’ project delve into these evolving migration dynamics and the policy responses in Egypt, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Greece, looking at the period 2021-2024. While these countries occupy different positions in the migratory journey—whether as points of origin, transit, or destination—the research reveals striking similarities in how they navigate and attempt to manage these roles within the broader regional migration landscape.

Country Reports:

Country Report Cyprus

Country Report Egypt

Country Report Lebanon

Country Report Greece

Policy briefs by Country:

Policy brief  Cyprus

Policy brief Egypt

Policy brief Greece

Policy brief Lebanon

Synthesis Report:

Extensive, Synthesis Report

More information can be found here.

Triantafyllos Karatrantos, ELIAMEP Senior Research Fellow, explains the crisis in Kashmir and the conflict between India and Pakistan.

Read the ELIAMEP Explainer here.

Greece is entering a new phase in European unification. In addition to monetary union, we now have a defence union.

The Greek Defence Technological Industrial Base (GDTIB) is in a position to rise to this challenge. With the help of realistic public policies, it could be included in the top three DTIBs among the eleven frontline EU states, alongside those of Finland and Poland.

The successful integration of the GDTIB into the pan-European DTIB will strengthen the Greek Armed Forces, make the defence sector one of Greece’s economy most capital- and knowledge-intensive ones , and enhance Greece’s strategic alliances.

Specifically, the more that the GDIB exports to the pan-European DTIB as it grows by leaps and bounds, the more it will advance the productive and innovation capacities which Greece’s military deterrence needs in an era which has witnessed the return of ‘Big War’.

 

Read here in pdf the Policy Paper by Antonis Kamaras, ELIAMEP Research Associate.

Introduction

The acceleration of the EU’s emergence as a collective security provider, as well as the rising defence expenditures of all NATO member-countries, presents a unique set of opportunities for Greece’s Defence Technological Industrial Base (GDTIB). Namely, the opportunity to enhance the effectiveness of the Greek Armed Forces; to make a meaningful contribution to the transformation of the Greek economic model; and to strengthen the country’s strategic alliances.

For these opportunities to be grasped, however, concerted policy action is required from the Greek government in such domains as industrial strategy, military procurement reform, and the strengthening of the country’s R&D ecosystem.

This brief note will begin by summarising the main contours of the European Defence Technological Industrial Base (EDTIB), as it is shaped by national and EU policy across Europe and connecting this fast-evolving EDTIB to Greek military, economic and strategic imperatives. Secondly, it will provide a profile of the GDTIB and its actual and latent capabilities. Thirdly, it will situate the GDTIB within its peer group—the DTIBs of the eleven Eastern front-line EU member-states, including Greece—and argue that the GDTIB can and should be one of the three leaders of this group, together with the DTIBs of Finland and Poland. Finally, it will conclude by suggesting the policy set that needs to be adopted to allow the GDTIB to grasp the opportunities that are arising to the benefit of Greece’s national interest.

The opportunity: the rise of the EDTIB

The European Commission’s White Paper on European Defence[1] has catalysed the policy debate on the future of the EDTIB both ahead of and subsequent to its publication.

In it, the Commission was able to recommend two important funding instruments. First, the exemption from the excessive deficit procedure allowing member countries that want to increase their defence spending to do so without breaching the EU’s fiscal rules. The take-up can rise to a cumulative 650 billion euros, should all 27 member states make use of it. And, second, the 150 billion euro SAFE lending facility, offered at concessionary rates similar to Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. Critics have, however, estimated that the two fall short of the amounts that would be required to catalyse defence investment in Europe. It has been calculated that, for France, a 10 billion euro procurement project would, if funded through SAFE, provide an 18 million euro interest rate subsidy per annum[2].  Turning to those EU member countries who could make use of the escape from excessive deficit procedure option, they would still worry that markets could respond negatively, thereby raising their borrowing costs. More importantly, without joint EU borrowing—and thus funding—for defence, the incentives will simply not be there for EDTIB to achieve the economies of scale and interoperabilities that have eluded it thus far.

That being said, the White Paper is arguably more important as a loud and clear statement of intent for a strategically autonomous Europe, rather than for the specific funding instruments it recommends. In our estimation, as a means of funding European defence at a satisfactory level, these funding instruments will soon be overshadowed by joint bond issuance by the European Commission, or another agreed vehicle for joint bond issuance such as the European Stability Mechanism. This is because:

• The new German government has decided to remove the debt brake and generously fund its defence effort; it is untenable politically and operationally, for the effort to rebuild collective European defence to be imbalanced due to Germany’s much greater fiscal space[3].

• The US will accelerate its disengagement from Europe’s defence, with US troop withdrawals from the Continent very much on the cards, in its effort to counter China’s pacing threat[4], and this accelerated withdrawal will further weaken the influence of those EU countries (such as Holland) that are hostile to joint bond issuance. Importantly, replacing the US’s strategic enablers, such as satellite-based ISR and anti-missile defence, is so expensive it will require pan-European industrial collaboration and funding.

• The question mark hanging over the US dollar as a store of value and the world’s dominant reserve currency[5] will make the arguments for creating what the Draghi report called a ‘common safe asset’[6] even more compelling. This asset is jointly raised EU bonds, with a virtuous circle making rising bond issuance cheaper and thus more attractive for    EU member countries to borrow collectively to fund the common good of European defence. Relatedly, the European collective defence that this bond issuance will fund will add further credibility to the euro as a reserve currency. Markets will perceive a strengthened European defence as a pillar of EU cohesion, and hence of the credibility of its collective borrowing.

We underline that trends that are already ongoing argue for an adequately funded EDTIB well into the future. Nearly all NATO member countries, under pressure from the Trump Administration, have committed to raising their defence budget at 2 % as a floor not a ceiling. To grasp the order of magnitude, it has been estimated that had all EU member states spent 2 % of their GDP on their defence in 2006-2025, there would have been an additional 1.1. trillion euros in defence spending over the 15-year period[7]. Relatedly, S&P has calculated that were EU member-states to raise their defence expenditure from 2.67 % of GDP (the current NATO weighted average) to 5 % of GDP (the extreme upper range of the increase President Trump is pressuring  European countries to make), that would have resulted in annual defence expenditure increasing from 242 billion USD to 875 billion USD[8].

In terms of the specific defence domains and imperatives to which this trend in increased funding for the EDTIB is connected, we highlight the following:

1.  The need for stocks of war materiel both to be replenished, due to the assistance provided to Ukraine, but also raised to the level whereby Russia can be credibly deterred. To put this in context, according to credible calculations, in purchasing power parity terms Russia’s defence spending exceeded the totality of Europe’s defence spending in 2024, with an estimated Russian expenditure of 145.9 billion $ equating to 461.6 $ billion in PPP terms and exceeding Europe’s 457 $ billion[9]. The EU therefore needs to translate its decisive collective economic superiority over Russia into a decisive superiority in war materiel by substantially outspending Russia in PPP terms.
2. The need to achieve strategic autonomy from the US, which means that a rising percentage of the procurement meant to establish clear military superiority over Russia will have to be directed at European companies (including non-European companies—be they US, Israeli or Korean—which have taken the trouble to indigenize their operations in Europe). This strategic autonomy encompasses both expensive and cheap innovation, meaning it ranges from R&D in sixth-generation weapon systems such as warships and fighter aircraft to AI-driven drones, as well as strategic enablers historically provided by the US, such as strategic lift, spaced-based ISR and communications, antimissile defence, and last-generation fighter aircraft, which now need to be developed and manufactured by the EDTIB.
3. The imperative to ‘produce and buy European’ to achieve economies of scale through industrial consolidation and joint procurement, as well as the interoperability of the EU’s Armed Forces. Economies of scale will enable the EU to buy more kit cheaper, while interoperability will make for a more effective collective deterrence[10]. Indicatively, Europe provided 7 types of Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) and 9 types of self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, compared to the US’s 1 and 2 respectively[11]. EU funding will serve these goals by subsidizing the intra-European collaborative production and procurement of defence articles, thus incentivizing both the manufacturing and the buying of EDTIB-developed and -manufactured equipment.
4. The need to raise fiscal commitments in defence to benefit European economies, in order to legitimize the diversion of scarce fiscal resources from social welfare to defence and to maximize direct and indirect wealth generation through an innovative EDTIB. This need also has a strong regional aspect, with national governments keen to ensure that the EDTIB makes a meaningful contribution to the economic wellbeing of their less well-developed regions[12].

In turn, the growth of the EDTIB and the way public policy structures this growth will afford the GDTIB the opportunity to contribute to vital Greek military, economic and strategic goals[13]. In particular:

• GDTIB sales volumes can increase manifold, product and services ranges can be expanded, allowing the GDTIB to invest in upgrading its production facilities, achieve economies of scale, and reinvest in R&D—thus enhancing the security of supply to the Greek Armed Forces and contributing to Armed Forces innovation, with the two altogether meaningfully strengthening the Hellenic Armed Forces’ deterrence.  In other words, a GDTIB that can be an important and effective member of the EDTIB is a GDTIB that can provide both a greater quantity and quality of war material to the Greek Armed Forces. Such a GDTIB accords with Greece’s need to deter against a ‘Big War’, as the disengagement of the US, together with the commensurately increase in Turkish revisionism, means that Greco-Turkish strategic rivalry involves not only two opposing Armed Forces, but also two opposing DTIBs[14].

• As a constituent member of the EDTIB, a dynamically growing GDTIB will most probably be the Greek economy’s most capital- and knowledge-intensive sector, and make a meaningful contribution to the transformation of the Greek economic model and its resulting ability to export high-value-added goods and services.

• Sales to other EU member states of critical war materiel (and its reverse: increasing Hellenic Armed Forces procurement from European firms) as well as participation in European defence supply chains and production consortia, will strengthen and expand Greece’s alliances with other EU member-states, thus enhancing EU solidarity with Greece in relation to the threat posed by Turkey. This alliance-building will not necessarily exclude Israel and the US, as their major defence companies will seek EU corporate partners in order to be eligible for EU funding. Importantly, the growing contribution of the Greek DTIB to the collective defence of the EU would also give Greece a correspondingly greater claim to that common European defence.

Considering all the above, we would claim that an effective GDTIB would, as a bona fide member of the EDTIB, be the industrial equivalent of Greece’s participation in the EU monetary union, as it would sustain Greece’s status as a core, not marginal, member of the EU, this time in the context of the EU’s collective defence endeavour.

The GDTIB: positioning and possibilities

We would argue that the GDTIB has been underestimated for three reasons: the corruption scandals that cast a shadow over the GDTIB in the post-Imia weapons procurement spree (1996-2008), mismanagement in major state-owned defence enterprises that created cost overruns and delays in executing contracts for the Hellenic Armed Forces, and the fiscal crisis that led to Ministry of National Defence (MND) orders to Greek defence firms drying up for over a decade[15].

Notwithstanding these factors, we highlight the following from the pre-fiscal crisis and fiscal crisis periods:

• At a time when other EU member-countries’ DTIBs were retrenching due to the post-1989 peace dividend dynamics, the post-Imia defence procurement spree meant that a number of both private and state-owned firms performed a critical subcontracting role in the manufacturing and servicing of highly advanced weapon systems, ranging from US Patriot batteries to German T214 submarines[16]. The value of the offset agreements involving GDTIB production in this same period, which lasted from the 1990s to the late 2000s, has been estimated at 2.5 billion euros[17] and involved industrial partnerships with four out of the eight top European defence firms: namely Rheinmettal, Leonardo, Dassault and Airbus.
• During the decade-long Greek defence procurement drought, the private firms survived and even grew on the basis of exports. The poster child of this development was Theon International, which manufactures night vision equipment, is entirely export-oriented, and counts some of the world’s most advanced militaries among its clients[18].
• The lack of national funding also meant that private and state defence firms, as well as university and research institute teams under the aegis of the MND, focused on PESCO and EDF funding. This placed Greece among the top 5 countries in terms of number of participants, right after the leading DTIB powerhouses of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. As a result, defence-related expertise has been accumulating, and the GDTIB is thoroughly familiar with the technologies and capabilities which the EDTIB has prioritised for future development[19]. Crucially, these technologies and capabilities address key challenges the EU must resolve to achieve strategic autonomy[20]—a strategic autonomy which, as we mentioned above, is no longer purely aspirational due to the behaviour of the second Trump Administration.
• The fiscal crisis catalysed an effective restructuring of the critical shipyard sector, with the Skaramanga, Elefsina and Syros shipyards being acquired by well-capitalised outside investors, and partial rationalization efforts being undertaken in state-owned firms in aerospace (EAV) and land weapon systems (EAS).
• Last but not least, a maturing start-up ecosystem (now more than 10 years old) has been created in Greece,[21] due to recognition that the Greek economy needs to become increasingly innovative if it is not to relapse into systemic crisis. Greek VCs are increasingly focusing on deep tech, and are more able to enter the defence market due to the European Investment Bank (EIB), which is its anchor investor, relaxing its dual use restrictions. The Hellenic Centre of Defence Innovation (HCDI), the less-than-two-years-old MND vehicle for funding defence innovation, which recently put out its first batch of calls, can now take advantage of this long-term effort in deep-tech start-up development.

In the post–fiscal–crisis environment, a geopolitically-assertive Turkey, the return of ‘Big War’ and territorial conquest in continental Europe, and the US’s accelerating focus on Asia, has kept Greece a top spender in terms of weapon-system acquisitions and upgrades[22]. While the first procurement wave of this period was off-the shelf, mostly from France and secondarily from Israel with little GDTIB input, it has laid the foundations of the Greek government’s current emphasis on 25 % GDTIB participation in all major procurement contracts with non-Greek firms. Importantly, the geopolitical motivation aligned with major procurement choices has catalysed engagement by the French and Israeli DTIBs with the GDTIB. In the former case, Group Naval shared on its own volition some subcontracting work for the Belharra frigates; in the latter, Israel’s IAI acquiring Intracom Defence Electronics, a leading Greek private-sector defence firm. F16 upgrades to the Viper configuration by EAV, and more generally the pick-up of Follow On Support (FOS) in the Hellenic Air Force and Army and Naval Aviation, have also boosted Greece’s aeronautical sector. There has been little activity, however, in FOS work in Greek armour, despite Greece having one of the largest, if not the largest, MBT and self-propelled artillery fleets in Europe.[23] In addition, as another bequest of the post-Imia procurement spree, there are at least two companies which are now part of the supply chain of the main German manufacturers of armoured vehicles—most prominently METKA, a member of METLEN, one of Greece’s leading industrial conglomerates.

Equally important for the GDTIB, over the last five to seven years, several events and processes have accelerated the development of Greek competencies in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4DI) domain, either in the private sector or through public and private partnerships outside core defence. We highlight:

1. The gathering pace of state digitization during and subsequent to the pandemic, with RRF funding prioritising digitisation. This has meant that both within the state, and in private sector firms contracted to implement a diverse set of digitisation projects, digital competencies have been deepening in Greece[24] with the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector projected to reach 4.6 % of GDP in 2029, which equals 10.4 billion euros in sales. Public and private partnerships have been proposed and are being implemented to expand the pool of ICT personnel[25]. This investment has also included AI which, designated a strategic priority due to its undeniable significance, is receiving a mixture of national and European funds channelled to Greek research institutes.
2. The Greek state has also invested considerably in civil defence competencies[26], including cyber, as well as in border surveillance. In the light of the rising potency of natural disasters, cyber-attacks and population movements, these domains are both inherently synergistic and highly adaptable to the purposes of national defence.
3. The pandemic also catalysed investment by multinational firms, mostly in IT functions serving an international client-base, which has further refined and expanded the Greek IT skill pool.

The importance of such developments for the GDTIB can hardly be exaggerated; indicatively, in the context of Civil Military Fusion (CMF), even companies engaged in IT in Ireland, a country with minuscule Armed Forces, aspire to integrate themselves into the EDTIB[27].

Becoming a leader among the DTIBs of Eastern frontline EU member-states

Greece is one of the eleven EU member-states which have eastern front-line status; the other ten are Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus. Greece’s DTIB strategy should therefore aim to both present itself as, and aspire to becoming, one of this peer group’s three leaders, along with Finland and Poland.

On a geographic distance from Moscow basis, Greece it is the only comparable high spender in defence within the EU-27 which is not physically proximate to Russia. In context, in 2024 the only EU member-states apart from Greece to spend above 3 % of GDP on defence were Poland, Estonia and Latvia, with Lithuania hovering under 3 % and Finland just under at a still high by EU standards 2.5 %[28] (Cyprus’ defence spending is just below 2 %; it should be borne in mind that the Greek Armed Forces are also organised to defend the island in an event of military conflict with Turkey). Of course, Greek defence spending is so high for the same reason, though the threat is not Russia, but Turkey and its aggressively revisionist agenda.

Establishing the GDTIB in the top three of this peer group will—given the high legitimacy the group enjoys (not for nothing are the EU Commissioners of External Affairs and Defence from the Baltic countries, while the Report which informed the EU’s Preparedness Strategy bears the name of an ex-President of Finland)—allow Greece to promote an agenda that much more effectively within the EU that is facilitative both of its wider national defence effort and of the development of its DTIB.

On the military side, an effective Greek DTIB in the top three of this peer group would translate into being able to provide equipment and solutions to all the front-line states, given the commonality of the threat environment.

On the economic side, Greece can develop a common agenda whereby above-average defence spending in the front-line states does not develop into an inequitable core-periphery relationship with the countries with the stronger DTIBs (such as Germany, France, Italy and Sweden) being the major beneficiaries of the transfer of resources from EU member-states with a weaker industrial base and fewer fiscal resources to develop such an industrial base. Not only would such an arrangement be inequitable, and thus ultimately unsustainable politically, it would also be wasteful of the skills and know-how that front-line states can mobilise in shaping the cause of an innovation-prone EDTIB[29]. And if Ukraine has proven anything, it is that those nation-states which face the greatest existential threat also have the greatest incentive to innovate defence-wise.

In this context, Greece can partner with Poland and other Central Eastern European (CEE) front-line states to demand a partial recycling of their defence expenditures into their own R&D defence efforts. This would allow their DTIBs to mitigate the core-periphery last-link-in-the-chain conundrum—a policy challenge that has been particularly prominent for CEE countries since their accession to the EU[30].

On the strategic side, Greece shares a geopolitical hedging strategy with all the other front-line states[31], whereby they purchase some of their highly advanced weapon systems from non-EU defence firms, primarily from the US and secondarily from such close US allies as the UK, Israel and Korea. We mention, indicatively, the decision taken by Finland and Greece to buy US F35s, Greece’s prioritization of Israeli systems for its air defence, and Poland’s acquisition of US Abrams and Korean K2 MBTs. Greece therefore has an interest in developing a common agenda which: a) enables, under conditions acceptable to other EU member-states and premised on European indigenisation, the participation of the DTIBs  of non-EU member countries in the common EU defence , and b) excludes Turkey from this arrangement, for as long as Ankara  avoids joining the EU’s democratic and geopolitical canon. Indicative of the possibilities of developing a joint agenda of this sort is the annulment in 2014 of the sale of two Mistral amphibious assault ships to the Russian Federation by President Francois Hollande, following a concerted lobbying effort by the Baltic countries and Poland[32].

Is such leadership a realistic prospect, however, and are the benefits that would accrue from it feasible? The answer is a decisive yes.

Unlike Greece, all the CEE countries underinvested in defence in the 1990s and 2000s. This meant they could not benefit from the extensive industrial partnerships and knowhow transfer which, as we pointed out above, forms the foundations of Greece’s current DTIB[33]. The fact that defence was not a priority sector, given the peace dividend dynamics, particularly in Germany, meant that far less effort was expended on trying to incorporate the strong manufacturing sectors of CEE countries into defence-sector supply chains than, say, the civilian automotive sector.  Typically, countries like Bulgaria and Romania underinvested in their Eastern Bloc–vintage defence sectors, which mostly exported military equipment of Soviet origin in Africa and Asia. Accelerating efforts to rearm, particularly after the conquest of Crimea by the Russian Federation, could not make up for this lost time, while the most ambitious rearmament effort of all, by Poland, prioritized speed of delivery and/or cementing the security relationship with the US. Poland, which has undertaken the most ambitious rearmament effort of all EU member-states, has also experienced deep-seated politicization and limited R&D expenditure leading to the under-performance of its DTIB, in a situation not unlike that in Greece[34].

Limited interest in defence, or in the EU as a collective defence provider, as well as the small size of several of the eleven front-line states, also meant a limited uptake of EDF and PESCO facilities. In contrast to Greece, which belongs to the ‘vanguard’ category in terms of its PESCO/EDF uptake, Poland and Romania are in the ‘lukewarm’ category, while Finland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia and Cyprus are in the ‘loiterer’ category[35].

Furthermore, extensive FDI undertaken by Greek corporations in Bulgaria and Romania post-1989, coupled with a leading Greek presence in the Cypriot economy, means that Greek conglomerates already own subsidiaries in these three peer countries that could be part of a Group approach in terms of defence-related production. No doubt, due to the growth of the EDTIB, there will be additional incentives for M&A acquisitions in defence, with Greek corporates taking the initiative as integrators and mobilisers of needed capital.

Last but not least, Greece is also number two among Eastern front-line states on the European Innovation Scoreboard, after Finland (admittedly, the gap is a large one)[36]. Among the larger front-line countries that can occupy the top three DTIB positions, Finland is number three among the EU-27 on the European Innovation Scoreboard, while Greece is number 20, Hungary number 21, Poland number 23, Slovakia number 24, Bulgaria number 26 and Romania number 27. This means that the Greek research ecosystem can sustain Greek leadership among the front-line peer group. Even more so if, through its own and the European funding facilities this paper recommends, it manages to entice to defence-relevant domains a critical mass of its US-based scientists, given that this scientific pool is the deepest not only within the front-line peer group but among all EU-27 member countries bar Germany, and only then in absolute not relative-to-general-population terms[37].

We would be remiss in this analysis if we failed to highlight Finland’s leading status among the ten front-line countries, Greece included, in terms of the governance, strategic focus and outcomes of its DTIB[38]. Finland’s DTIB has actually benefited from Finland’s strategic isolation, which has translated into efficient use of scarce resources, a focus on an extensive Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) effort which has resulted in the life cycles of weapon systems procured from abroad being maintained and extended, efficient niche strategies—in, for instance, ship hull design and manufacturing—which have addressed the particular needs of the Finnish Defence Forces, and a distinct lack of corruption and politicization in the DTIB.  This set of features constitute a compelling template for Greece and Poland. As they seek to improve the performance of their DTIBs, and considering that the status of the US as the ultimate guarantor of their territorial integrity is now uncertain, it behoves them to see their respective DTIBs as a genuine, not nominal, pillar of their deterrence —just as Finland has done for decades.

Greek leadership of such a peer group would, of course, require recognition by the other nine members that such a group does exist, and that it is useful for each and all of its constituent members for this group to exist. We would argue that Greece’s status as the only Mediterranean country, together with Cyprus, to be a front-line state in the EU’s east validates both these propositions for three interdependent reasons. First, because it makes the imperatives of territorial defence a cause that is not limited to the centre and north of Europe’s eastern border, but also extends to the south. Second, because it makes this cause agnostic to the origin of the threat, thus universalizing it, increasing its normative strength within the EU along, by extension, with the credibility of the EU’s collective defence—a feature even more important today when even Denmark’s territorial integrity is being questioned from the West (i.e. the US). Third, because it adds numbers to the particular concerns of front-line states—ensuring that defence funding integrates elements that are equitable, for instance,  and enable the full participation of all EU member-states in the innovation that European collective defence needs and from which the economies of EU member states can benefit.

Building on the foundations of Greece’s extant DTIB

Given its present status, the GDTIB can, with the appropriate level of government support, become one of the three leaders of the eleven front-line EU DTIBs. Achieving this would translate into major benefits for the effectiveness of the Greek Armed Forces, the competitiveness of its economy, and the strength of its alliances. We believe that the following set of policies can be decisive in achieving this goal.

1. Fully capitalize the state-owned defence enterprises, namely EAV and EAS, and lift all restrictions on their managerial authority by taking them off Central Government supervision, as in their ability to offer competitive salaries. Doing so will a) improve their performance in critical undertakings for the Greek Armed Forces, as in case of EAV’s F16 upgrades to the Viper configuration and FOS on the Hellenic Army and Hellenic Navy Aviation branches; b) secure the human and capital equipment resources, in the case of EAS, required to allow the GDTIB to partake in the restocking of critical munitions at the pan-European level; c) allow the GDTIB to participate in newly-founded pan-European consortia for next-generation weapon platforms, as much as in the creation of European strategic enablers that will replace those historically provided by the US.

In a nutshell, the Greek government needs to invest amply in order to ensure: (a) that these two firms’ spare capacity is fully utilised   in terms of facilities, production lines – including testing sites – and skilled personnel, as spare capacity is in great demand throughout Europe due to the decades-long running down of the EDIIB, from 1989 to 2022; (b) with additional funding and expertise-injection, their embedded knowledge and skills become a stepping stone to participation in pan-European consortia, not only as subcontractors but also as innovative developers able to capture part of the value added to be created. After an accelerated restructuring effort of this sort, both EAV and EAS will also become attractive acquisition targets to both Greek and non-Greek investors, thus leveraging the government effort via additional inflows of capital and expertise. The private-sector firms, by aggressively expanding the manufacturing capability of their defence subsidiaries through ambitious investment plans (as in the case of METLEN most prominently[39]) are proof positive of what these two state-controlled enterprises can aspire and plan to achieve within the EDTIB, if liberated from their present constraints.

2. If Thessaloniki-based ELVO has retained important production capabilities and licenses—meaning spare capacity that can be resuscitated-ensure that ELVO acquires a credible industrial owner so that it play a role similar to that of EAV and EAS in its domain of expertise, which is military vehicles assembly and their FOS. As per the White Paper recommendations, investors in ELVO and other defence firms in Greece’s regions could make use of EU Cohesion funding, but only if Greek central and regional authorities act fast and make full use of the scheduled revision of this funding source.

3. Double the budget of HCDI, so it can issue more calls and finalise more contracts in order both to accelerate the introduction of innovative technologies in the Hellenic Armed Forces and to give Greek defence high-tech firms a fighting chance to export their goods and services in the pan-European market with the added credibility of already having the Greek Armed Forces as a client. Employ this additional HCDI allocation to defence tech and dual use firms which can submit proposals, on their own or in partnership with research teams from universities and research institutes, to HCDI beyond the remit of the calls issued by the latter. By doing so, HCDI can catalyse the growth of the GDTIB as a growing number of companies and research teams will be able to consider potential defence applications of their technologies and knowledge. We mention here that dual use investments are included in the White Paper and accepted as bona fide investments in defence by the GOFOG classification system. Relatedly, Turkey is dedicating a bit more than 10 % of its public R&D budget to defence compared with a little less than 5 % in Greece[40].

We also note that enhancing the ability of Greek defence tech and dual use firms to produce asymmetric advantages for the Greek Armed Forces, and  enhance Greek deterrence, is synergistic with the defence effort of the other ten frontline EU member-countries; they face similar operational challenges, ranging from Finland’s archipelagic defence in the Baltic Sea to enhanced border surveillance in Poland.

Enhancing the funding of defence startups can have another advantage: drawing to Greece startups with diaspora founders who, apart from gaining access to cost-competitive skilled staff in Greece, may also gain a ‘passport’ into a growing European defence market. Also reserve fiscal space for these deep-tech, Greek-only procurements so that successful prototyping can be converted into production and deployment by the Hellenic Armed Forces without delay.

4. Expand the FOS budget to all functional and upgradable platforms on a value-for-money basis, so that the Hellenic Armed Forces rapidly restore their strength and the GDTIB both gains valuable expertise and is further integrated into pan-European value chains. This imperative is particularly pertinent with regard to land systems, as in the case of MBTs and self-propelled artillery.

5. Strengthen the scientific capacity of the General Secretariat for Defence Investments and Acquisitions by hiring high-quality permanent civilian staff. On the basis of lessons learned from Ukraine about procurement in wartime, revamp the MND’s procurement processes. Also judiciously adopt Israeli practices aimed at enabling civilian firms to design and implement defence solutions, so that CMF can be better implemented in the defence domain in Greece. With additional technical expertise and facilitative processes, the MND would be able to catalyse defence innovation undertaken by the GDTIB, and especially innovation originating from Greece’s dynamically growing ICT sectors, as highlighted above[41].

6. In view of the tumult in the US research ecosystem, create a fund designated to attract top Greek diaspora scientists specialising in defence-relevant domains ranging from aerospace to automotive technology to AI, so as to deepen the scientific capital from which the GDTIB can draw ideas, and to enable its integration into the most cutting edge EDTIB projects. We reiterate that Greece has, relative to its population, by far the most numerous and distinguished scientific diaspora (i.e. Greek nationals who received their undergraduate education in Greece) in the US among the EU-27.matching.

7. Be ready to offer matching funds, as per the recommendation of the PWC study on Greek manufacturing, in order to allow the major firms in the GDTIB to participate in the more ambitious EDTIB consortia. There should be a particular focus here on sea warfare, manned and autonomous, given Greek shipyards’ ability to exploit synergies with their civilian work, which itself benefits significantly from its access to the globally dominant Greek merchant marine. Put in place the foundations for this process now by reviewing and selecting for future support the most promising domains among the EDF and PESCO projects in which Greek defence firms and research teams have participated. Such matching funds should be from national and not EU sources so as to ensure timely decision making in accordance with a national prioritisation strategy.

8. In coordination with the ten other frontline EU member-states, which spend far more than all other EU member-states on defence, undertake the initiative to receive disproportionate R&D funding for defence from collective EU funding sources on the basis of the national weighted average spending on defence as a percentage of GDP over the last five years. Such an initiative needs to be contextualized by the fact that, in the growing European defence market, frontline states would tend to channel a growing percentage of their comparatively larger defence budgets to non-frontline states such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain (and the UK which, while a non-EU member, is asked to financially contribute to common European defence) which have the most highly advanced DTIBs. Include in this support scheme the proposed institution of the EU professor: leading scholars from member-states, either resident or repatriated, who will have their salaries paid directly by the EU, so they may be compensated above the low civil service salaries in their homelands, which would render their repatriation unfeasible.

We underline that, barring such remedies, the growth of the EDTIB will further entrench intra-EU disparities as stronger national DTIBs, and better-funded national research ecosystems, would be able to attract the lion’s share of the collective resources the EU allocates for defence.

9. Aggressively pursue military mobility funding opportunities from the EU, so as to further increase Greece’s significance for the EU’s common defence, and cement relations with the other frontline member-states while improving the transportation infrastructure in Northern Greece.

10. Utilise the recently established General Secretariat of National Defence to coordinate the ministries of National Defence, Finance, Development, Citizen Protection, Education, Merchant Marine, and Digital Governance in pursuit of the policy aims listed above, as well as others aimed at facilitating the growth of the GDTIB.

Concluding Remarks

Considering both existing and highly probable trends in the funding of the EDTIB, as well as the foundations of the extant GDTIB and Greek dual use competencies, it is well within Greece’s grasp to build one of the top three DTIBs among the EU’s eleven front-lines states in the years to come.

Doing so will prove decisive in upgrading the deterrence of the Greek Armed Forces in an era of ‘Big War’, creating the most knowledge- and capital-intensive sector in the Greek economy, and putting Greece at the core of the EU’s collective defence effort.

This task is well within Greece’s fiscal and reform capacity.

Judicious recapitalisations and reforms in the major state-owned defence firms will position them so they can contribute to the restocking of Europe’s war materiel and participate in the next-generation weapon-systems development and manufacturing undertaken by pan-European consortia.

An increase in funding to defence deep tech linked to reforms in weapons procurement can also rapidly boost the Greek Armed Forces’ asymmetric advantages and create export opportunities to the EDTIB.

Larger private-sector core defence and dual use firms can also grow further and deepen their links with the EDTIB on the back of FOS provided to the Greek Armed Forces, as well as their ability to act as subcontractors to Greece’s major foreign suppliers of highly-advanced weapon systems. With matching funds by the Greek state, they will be able to build on their FOS and subcontractor skills to add value, on their own or as members of consortia, through de novo weapon systems developed via common EU funding.

Finally, all three cohorts of the GDTIB stand ready to make use of investments by the Greek state and the EU in Greece’s research ecosystem, as in the case of subsidising dual use consortia including both firms and research teams, repatriating distinguished defence-relevant scientists from the Greek diaspora, and funding basic and applied research applicable to defence purposes.

Almost a quarter of a century ago, and following years of systematic policy effort, Greece reaffirmed its status as a core member of the EU by adopting the euro as its currency. It is now well within the nation’s capabilities, as well as vital to its national interest, to maintain this status by developing an effective DTIB which is instrumental to both national and European defence.

[1] European Commission, White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030, March 12 2025.

[2] Wolff, Guntram, Steinbach, Armin and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, The governance and funding of European Rearmament, Policy Brief 15/25, Bruegel, April 2025.

[3] For the political implications within the EU of an unbalanced growth of the German Armed Forces, see Kimmage, Michael and David-Wilp, Sudha, The Zeitenwende is real this time – Germany’s defense upgrade is necessary but could upset Europe’s balance of power, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025.

[4] For an analysis of the ‘Asia first’ policy strain in the US, crystallised in the recent appointment of Elbridge Colby as Under Secretary for Policy at the Department of Defence, see Brands, Hal, Putting “Asia First” could cost American the world”, Bloomberg Opinion, August 5, 2024.

[5] For a comment on these dynamics see, Martin, Felix, Europe can take advantage of King Dollar’s wobble, Breaking Views – Reuters, April 25 2025.

[6] Draghi, Mario. “The Future of European Competitiveness Part A: A competitiveness strategy for Europe.” (2024).

[7] Clapp, Sebastian, Reinforcing Europe’s defence industry, Briefing, European Parliamentary Research Service, November 2024.

[8] Bellesia, Riccardo, Gill, Frank, European Defense Funding: What are the options? Standard and Poors, February 13 2025.

[9] Mackenzie, Lucia, Russian defense spending overtakes Europe, study finds, Politico, February 12, 2025.

[10] Clapp, Sebastian, Delivorias, Angelos, Lazarou, Elena, Pari, Marianna,                Financing the European defence industry, Briefing, European Parliamentary Research Service, September 2024.

[11] See, Wolff, Guntram, Steinbach, Armin and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, The governance and funding of European Rearmament, Policy Brief 15/25, Bruegel, April 2025.

[12] For a typical example of the political legitimation of rising defence spending see, Partington, Richard, Rachel Reeves vows to use defence spending to support UK’s ‘left behind’ industrial towns, Guardian, March 4 2025.

[13] The author has adopted the perspective of a national DTIB meeting a nation-state’s military, economic and strategic goals from Dorman, Andrew, Matthew Uttley, and Benedict Wilkinson. “A benefit, not a burden. The security, economic and strategic value of Britain’s defence industry.” Policy Institute at King’s Policy Paper (2015).

[14] For the need to prepare for a long war of attrition, and thus also deter such a war, see Freedman, Lawrence, D,. The Age of Forever Wars, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025.

[15] For an account of the GDTIB see, Kamaras, Antonis, The Greek Defence Sector: Turning the page?, Policy Paper 126, ELIAMEP, February 2023.

[16] The following unpublished study is the most comprehensive treatment of this aspect of the GDTIB: Vlahou, Paraskevi, Defence Industry, Sectoral Study 222,IOVE, March 2009 (in Greek, unpublished).

[17] This figure has been tabulated in the following unpublished study: Mosholios, Panagiotis, Domestic Defence Industry Past-Present-Future, PASOK, March 2025 (in Greek, unpublished).

[18] See Theon International. Theon received new orders in January 2025 totaling 53 million euros, with embedded new options for an additional 95.5 million euros. It also joined the German Future Soldier Program on February 7 2025.

[19] See, Blavoukos, Spyros, Politis-Lamprou, Panos, Dellatolas, Thanos, Mapping EU Defence Collaboration – One Year on from the Versailles Declaration, Policy Paper 133, ELIAMEP, April 20 2023.

[20] For an analysis of the relation between these instruments and the EU’s strategic autonomy see, Fiott, Daniel, Strategic Autonomy: towards ‘European sovereignty’ in defence?, European Union Institute for Security Studies, November 2018.

[21]See, indicatively, Adams, Lucy, Greece’s tech sector grew 15 % in 2024, Tech.eu, January 2 2025.

[22] For a review of current and future procurement decisions by the MND see, Feistead, Peter, Hellenic defence procurement poised to embark on a new modernization plan, EURO-SD, April 28 2025.

[23] See, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “Building Defence Capacity in Europe: An Assessment.” (2024).

[24] The growth of the ICT sectors has been well-documented in Greece, with the pandemic in particular and the post pandemic RRF funded state digitization acting as a catalyst. See indicatively, Deloitte, Study of the sufficiency of ICT specialists in the Greek labour market, December 2022 and Deloitte, The prospect of the ICT sector in Greece, December 2024.

[25] Ibid.

[26] Investments in civil defence have increased know-how of the use of drones and of sophisticated command and control systems while in Greece’s newly established National Cybersecurity Authority, a distinguished MIT scientist has assumed the reins. See indicatively, European Investment Bank, Greece to bolster civil protection with new EIB loan of 220 million euros, April 12 2024 and Ministry of Digital Governance, Michail Bletsas is the governor of the National Cybersecurity Authority, April 24 2024 (Υπουργείο Ψηφιακής Διακυβέρνησης, Ο Μιχάλης Μπλέτσας Διοικητής Της Εθνικής Αρχής Κυβερνοσφάλειας).

[27] See Webber, Jude, Tech Groups pivot to defence in neutral Ireland as EU rearms, Financial Times, April 28 2025.

[28] See, Wolff, Guntram, Steinbach, Armin and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, The governance and funding of European Rearmament, Policy Brief 15/25, Bruegel, April 2025.

[29] For a need for such an arrangement see, Witney, Nick, Commissioning defence: how to build a European defence Union, October 30 2024.

[30] For a discussion in particular of Poland’s developmental cul de sac, due to the hierarchical supply chain system which has driven its growth post 1989, see Boguslawski, Jan, Economic dependence curbs Poland’s rise, Politico, June 22 2023.

[31] Based on the ‘European Defence in a New Age’ research project, to which the author has been participating, and which profiles most national DTIBs in Europe, see indicatively,  Molling, Christian, Helmonds, Soren eds, Security, Industry and the lost European vision, DGAP Report, No 10, October 2023.

[32] For a discussion from a Greek perspective of the Mistral Case see, Kamaras, Antonis. “Greece’s call for an embargo on weapons sales to Turkey.” Policy Paper, 44, November 2020.

[33] Molling, Christian, Helmonds, Soren eds, Security, Industry and the lost European vision, DGAP Report, No 10, October 2023.

[34] See, Minder, Raphael, Poland struggles to rearm for era of war on its borders, Financial Times, May, 4 2025.

[35] See, Blavoukos, Spyros, Politis-Lamprou, Panos, Dellatolas, Thanos, Mapping EU Defence Collaboration – One Year on from the Versailles Declaration, Policy Paper 133, ELIAMEP, April 20 2023.

[36] See, European Commission, European Innovation Scoreboard, 2024.

[37] See, Yuret, Tolga. “An analysis of the foreign-educated elite academics in the United States.” Journal of Informetrics 11.2 (2017): 358-370.

[38] For these features of Finland’s DTIB see, Suorsa, Olli Pekka, and Brendon J. Cannon. “Ensuring security of supply: pragmatic defence autarky and Finland’s defence industry.” Defence Studies (2025): 1-21.

[39] Findikakis George, METLEN’S plan for the next day in 12 slides, euro.2day.gr, April 29,2025 [Φιντικάκης Γιώργος, Το σχέδιο της ΜΕΤΛΕΝ για την επόμενη μέρα σε 12 διαφάνειες, euro2day.gr].

[40] Mejino-Lopez, Juan, Wolff, Guntram, A European defence strategy in a hostile world, Policy Brief 29/24, Bruegel, November 2024.

[41] Ukraine and Israel are the templates for institutionalising the integration of technologies originating from the civilian sector into Armed Forces operations through suitable procurement processes and technical support for innovative firms. See respectively Bondar, Kateryna, How Ukraine Rebuilt Its Military Acquisition System Around Commercial Technology, Center for Strategic & International Studies, January 2025 and Evron, Yoram. “4IR technologies in the Israel Defence Forces: blurring traditional boundaries.” Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution. Routledge, 2022. 122-143.

• The EU Internal Security Strategy comes to complete the Union’s institutional security architecture until 2030, functioning as the inner circle of the ven diagram composed of the EU Strategy for Preparedness Union for preventing and responding to emerging threats and crises and the European Defence White Paper.
• The main feature of this new strategy is the concept and goal of Protection, which is why it is called ProtectEU.
• Security issues must be integrated into all EU legislation, policies and programmes, including EU external action.
• The Strategy reflects a broad list of threats, which are significantly influenced by the situation in the EU’s neighboring regional subsystems and, at the same time, have many interconnections with hybrid threats.
• It is based on four central pillars that function as umbrellas of actions: anticipate, detect, prevent and respond.
• The Commission will propose an ambitious revision of Europol’s mandate to transform it into a truly operational police service, better supporting Member States.

Read here (in Greek) the Policy paper by Triandafyllos Karatrantos, ELIAMEP Senior Research Fellow.

This Working paper draws on the emerging literature that has established that the employment rates and the earnings of men and women start to diverge once they have children, with women’s labour market performance deteriorating, while that of men’s left unaffected or even improving. This phenomenon has been dubbed the motherhood penalty (or the child penalty). The size of the penalty is affected by the choices parents make as regards employment and childcare, which in turn are affected by gender norms, instilled in women and men early in life, but also by public policies aiming to establish a better work-life balance and help working mothers and fathers combine bringing up a child with pursuing a career. The paper reviews cultural norms and institutional arrangements as potential determinants of mothers’ employment in two polar cases: Greece (where female employment is low, and child penalties large) compared to Norway (where female employment is high, and child penalties are virtually non-existent). The paper concludes with a list of policy recommendations, inspired by our understanding of the gradual emergence of family-friendly work-life policies in Norway, and informed by our awareness of constraints facing policy makers in Greece.

Read here in pdf the Working paper by: Manos Matsaganis, Head, Greek and European Economy Programme, ELIAMEP; A. G. Leventis Foundation Senior Research Fellow; Professor, Polytechnic University, Milan; Tone Fløtten, Senior Researcher, FAFO Institute for Labour and Social Research, Oslo; Chrysa Papalexatou, Research Fellow, Greek and European Economy Programme, ELIAMEP; European Institute, London School of Economics; Daphne Nicolitsas, Research Associate, Greek and European Economy Programme, ELIAMEP;
Assistant Professor, University of Crete and Bjorn Dapi, Researcher, FAFO Institute for Labour and Social Research, Oslo.

 

The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for March 2025.

According to Vassilis Nedos (Kathimeri), Greece may receive more than the originally agreed 600 US-made Switchblade drones as increased production has lowered costs, defense officials say. As mentioned in earlier versions of the Transatlantic Periscope brief, the Greek military had secured a deal for Switchblade 300 block 20 and Switchblade 600 loitering munitions worth $75 million, with $50 million funded through the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. However, with manufacturer AeroVironment ramping up production, the US has informed Athens that more drones could be acquired under the existing budget.

On March 18, 2025, a bilateral meeting was held between a delegation of the Hellenic National Defence General Staff (HNDGS) and the U.S. Marine Forces Europe and Africa (MFEA) at “Papagos” camp, in Athens. The HNDGS delegation was headed by 1st Infantry Division (1st ID) Commander, Major General Dimitrios Drosos, representing the Commander of the Hellenic Special Warfare Command (SWC), while on behalf of the US MFEA, the meeting was attended by its Commander, Major General Robert B. Sofge, accompanied by members of his staff and officials from the U.S. Embassy in Greece. The discussions focused on the framework and opportunities for joint training of the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) with the Greek marine in Greece, with the aim to further enhance the close cooperation between the Special Operations Forces of both countries in the near future.

National Defense Minister Nikos Dendias met on March 19 with US Embassy Chargé d’Affaires Maria Olson at the Hellenic Ministry of National Defense. Dendias posted on X that they discussed “bilateral defence relations and the ways they could be further strengthened. We also exchanged views on the regional and international security challenges.”

US president Donald Trump celebrated Greek Independence Day, hosting an event at the White House on March 24. “The legacy of the Greeks is all around us. It surrounds us,” he told a group from the Greek-American community gathered at the White House before signing a proclamation recognizing March 25 as Greek Independence Day in the US, “celebrating 204 years of glorious Greek sovereignty and freedom.” “Perhaps the greatest gift we have inherited from this amazing culture is our incredible Greek-American community, now more than 3 million strong,” he added. The US president was accompanied by Archbishop Elpidophoros of America, who congratulated him on his re-election.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Migration management has become a critical axis of foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, moving beyond its traditional framing as a humanitarian or administrative challenge. Within Greek–Turkish relations, human mobility now functions as a means of exerting pressure, projecting power, and renegotiating geopolitical roles. The 2020 Evros crisis underscored this dynamic, triggering strategies that transcend the bilateral level and involve both European and regional actors. This report analyses the Evros crisis and the broader strategic approaches of Turkey and Greece through the lens of migration diplomacy, drawing on concepts such as issue-linkage and rent-seeking. It examines both coercive and cooperative tactics employed by the two states and the European Union’s often contradictory or defensive role. Finally, the report calls for a more resilient and institutionally coherent strategy that respects humanitarian principles and integrates migration into a broader vision of foreign policy and regional cooperation.

Read here (in Greek) the Policy Paper by Gerasimos Tsourapas, Professor of International Relations at the University of Glasgow; Non-Resident Research Fellow, ELIAMEP.

The White Paper on the Future of European Defence, released in March 2025, represents a landmark initiative by the European Commission to articulate a cohesive vision for strengthening the EU’s defence posture amid mounting geopolitical instability. Acting as a framework for the ReArm Europe plan, the document proposes mobilising hundreds of billions of EUR in defence investments, making use of national and EU resources.

The ReArm Europe Plan and the White Paper clearly succeed in politically signalling the EU’s renewed commitment to defence investment and military readiness. However, despite their rhetorical strength, four major concerns could undermine their transformative potential:

1. Coordination gaps: Without a robust coordination mechanism, national funds may be allocated to less pressing areas and may serve other – national and/or domestic – objectives and interests. In the meantime, the Union will not achieve effectiveness and efficiency unless it focuses on standardisation and interoperability.
2. Financial markets’ sensitivity: While the activation of the national escape clause offers fiscal leeway, it is unclear how the financial markets will react to increased national debts. Alternative instruments, such as the Defence Eurobonds or the European Defence Mechanism, could be examined.
3. Creative ambiguity: The Proposal for a SAFE Regulation includes references presented vaguely enough to allow for multiple interpretations and thus avoid frictions. In view of the negotiations in the Council, the issue of a third country’s participation in a procurement consortium must be further elaborated and clarified.
4. Democratic legitimacy and parliamentary oversight: Article 122 TFEU sidesteps the European Parliament, despite the latter’s willingness to further support the EU defence initiatives. Without adequate parliamentary involvement, defence investments risk alienating public opinion in a policy area which requires broad societal consensus.

All the aforementioned shortcomings reflect a deeper structural issue: the absence of a common threat perception and a truly common foreign and security policy. Without a coherent strategic vision at the EU level, member-states remain inclined to prioritise national over collective objectives and interests.

Read here in pdf the Policy Paper by Spyros Blavoukos, Senior Research Fellow, Head, EU Institutions & Policies Programme, ELIAMEP; Head of the ‘Ariane Condellis’ European Programme; Professor, Athens University of Economics & Business and Panos Politis Lamprou, Junior Research Fellow, EU Policies and Institutions Programme, ELIAMEP.

Introduction

In response to the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities – including but not limited to the protracted Russian war on Ukraine and the Trump 2.0 administration – and following the earlier announcement of the ReArm Europe Plan, the White Paper on the Future of European Defence was published in March 2025. The White Paper outlines the path to enhanced EU defence capabilities and aims to mobilise hundreds of billions of EUR, detailing measures to finance and strengthen the EU’s military readiness.

The White Paper features well-intentioned objectives and its communication strategy was well orchestrated. It does provide answers to two key questions: first, where the money will come from and second, in what defence capabilities the EU is going to invest. Starting from the former, in the best-case scenario, national resources up to €650 billion will be mobilised through the activation of the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which defines the fiscal governance framework for the EU member-states and sets rules for constraining national government deficit and debt. In essence, this clause will allow member-states to accommodate additional defence spending. The €650 billion will be topped by EU resources of up to €150 billion that will be gathered through the common issuance of bonds, as envisaged by the new SAFE instrument. In addition to these €800 billion, the White Paper proposes four additional -but rather vague and not quantified- ways to step up defence spending: a) redirecting existing EU funds towards defence (e.g., cohesion funds), b) contributions from the European Investment Bank (EIB), c) private investments, and d) ensuring financial predictability for the European defence industry in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), currently under negotiation. Overall, the resources envisaged in the White Paper are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Envisaged resources for EU defence in the White Paper

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regarding the capability needs, the White Paper identifies seven priority areas: Air and missile defence, Artillery systems, Ammunition and missiles, Drones and counter-drone systems, Military Mobility, AI, Quantum, Cyber & Electronic Warfare and strategic enablers & critical infrastructure protection. Additionally, the Proposal for a SAFE Regulation (i.e., the €150 billion funding instrument mentioned above that accompanies the White Paper) refers to the following two categories of defence products, the common procurement of which will be funded:

1. Category One: ammunition and missiles, artillery systems, small drones and related anti-drone systems, critical infrastructure protection, cyber and military mobility, and
2. Category Two: air and missile defence, drones (other than small ones) and related anti-drone systems, strategic enablers, space assets protection, AI and electronic warfare.

 ‘Money Makes the World Go Round’: Financing EU Defence

National resources for defence

In 2023, the EU member-states spent €279 billion on defence, marking an almost 10% increase in defence spending compared to 2022 (€254 billion). Approximately one fourth of this expenditure (26%) was directed to research, development and procurement of defence equipment.[1] In 2024, the total defence expenditure made by the EU member-states reached (provisionally) €326 billion, an almost 17% rise compared to 2023, which amounts to 1.9% of the EU’s GDP and is very close to the 2% NATO requirement. These figures are in line with the broader, decade-long trend of increased military spending, especially fuelled by the Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022.

Still, Europe is lagging in military deterrence and defence, and much more money needs to be poured to close the gap in terms of military capabilities, especially should the US truly reconsider its military presence in Europe. This is the underlying logic behind the proposal to create additional fiscal space for member-states to invest more in defence, bypassing the strict framework of the EU’s macroeconomic governance. The ReArm Europe plan calls for such a fiscal margin for higher defence expenditures (of up to €650 billion) through the coordinated activation of the national escape clause by the member-states. The national escape clause will apply from 2025 to 2028, for expenditure up to 1.5% of GDP.  The reference year is 2021, i.e., the last pre-war year when the EU member-states had spent €214 billion on defence. In other words, if the national escape clause has been activated and a member-state’s increase of military expenditure remains within the 1.5% ceiling, the excessive deficit procedure will not be launched, even if the total budget deficit exceeds the limits set by the revised rules of the fiscal and macroeconomic governance framework. The EU’s executive branch has invited all – interested – member-states to submit a request to activate this escape clause by the end of April 2025. The member-states’ requests will be coordinated by the Council in order to accelerate the process, and the recommendations activating the national escape clause(s) will be adopted by qualified majority voting (QMV).

On- and Off-EU Budget resources for defence

Besides the financial resources under the full control of each member-state’s government at the national level, there are two main channels of financing defence-related activities at the EU level: first, a direct budget line from the EU budget and second, off-EU budget resources that are collectively managed by EU member-states. As regards the former, Article 41 of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU) forbids, in principle, the use of the Union budget for operations having military or defence implications. Hence, the Commission’s main defence-related initiatives have focused primarily on strengthening the European defence industry and supporting the development of dual use infrastructure, with an allocated budget of approximately €10.55 billion in the current MFF.[2] These initiatives comprise the European Defence Fund (EDF), the Military Mobility, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) and the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA). The European Defence Industry Programme, which falls in this category and is agreed to provide 1.5 billion over the period 2025-2027, has yet to be adopted. The legal basis for financing the European defence industry lays primarily in Article 173(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), which touches upon the industry’s competitiveness. Other relevant TFEU articles that could be used to finance European defence-related projects comprise Article 179, on the improvement of the EU’s scientific and technological base, Article 170 on the development and interconnection of trans-European networks, and Title XIX on research, technological development and space policy. As far as the second channel is concerned, the largest defence-related, off-EU budget tool is the European Peace Facility (EPF). As depicted in Figure 2, comparing the two categories, the biggest part of the funds allocated to EU defence remain under full member-states’ control.[3]

Figure 2: EU budget and off-budget major defence-related tools

 

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The Proposal for a SAFE Regulation has the potential to make available up to €150 billion, a huge upgrade compared to the current situation, as shown in Figure 3. The SAFE Instrument operationally looks very similar to the EDIRPA, as it focuses on providing the necessary financial resources to procure eligible defence equipment jointly. However, financially, the two instruments are totally different as SAFE, in its current format at least, will operate through loans (and subsequently debt), whereas EDIRPA provides grants. Consistent with the general approach of EU defence funding mechanisms, the SAFE Instrument promotes a cooperative format. In this context, common procurement under SAFE requires at least the involvement of one member-state in conjunction with either another member-state or an eligible third country.

Figure 3: EU Budget funding for defence(-related) initiatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From Reports to Action: Shaping the Future of EU Defence

A 2024 briefing from the European Parliamentary Research Service brought together the various proposals for the future of EU defence that were put forward in four different documents: a) the Mission Letter to the then Commissioner-designate for Defence and Space, b) Von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines, c) Draghi Report and d) Letta Report. The great majority of the proposals mentioned in the four documents have been integrated into the White Paper and the Proposal for a SAFE Regulation, as clearly shown in Figure 4. The interconnection between defence policy and economic competitiveness and the extent to which these two areas are mutually reinforcing are evident. The defence industrial policy aims to enhance military readiness, while also seeking to bolster economic growth, job creation and innovation. This relationship is highlighted in the Letta and Draghi Reports, both of which focus primarily on the economy, albeit emphasising the importance of a robust EU Defence Technological and Industrial Base. Most of their insights and proposals found their way into the White Paper.

The proposals that did not get through refer to sensitive political issues, such as the issuance of “Defence Eurobonds”, or older initiatives and/or institutional arrangements that are already in place, like, for example, EDIRPA & ASAP and the proposal for a Defence Commissioner. In addition, Letta’s proposal for the creation of a European Stability Mechanism (ESM)-like specialised credit line was not outrightly rejected but rather treated in a non-committing way. The White Paper vaguely notes that if the demand by member-states for funds for defence-related investments outstrips supply, then “the Commission will continue to explore innovative instruments, such as in relation to the European Stability Mechanism”.    

Figure 4: Proposals integrated into the White Paper/Proposal for a SAFE Regulation

 

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Critical Assessment and the Road Ahead

‘ReArm Europe’ and the White Paper have managed to raise awareness about the need to further invest in EU defence. Politically, they have sent a strong message about the Union’s commitment to security and enhancing defence capabilities. They have emphasised the necessity to direct money towards defence, reflecting a proactive approach and have signalled a level of readiness to act, especially in combination with the publication of the Preparedness Union Strategy. However, there are four main concerns that are hard to ignore:

• First, as discussed above, the lion’s share of the ReArm Europe plan will come from the national budgets. While the flexibility to use additional national resources is a positive first step, it remains unclear to what extent member-states will actually decide to invest in defence and, more importantly, whether those investments will be directed towards what is truly needed. In particular, the International Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG), which will be used to measure the member-states’ defence expenditures, includes a very broad set of different sub-categories. For example, COFOG Category 02 – Defence entails expenditure on military personnel, other non-combat defence forces and military aid. There is a genuine concern that, without a robust coordination mechanism, funds may be allocated to less pressing areas and may serve other – national and/or domestic– objectives and interests. To be more specific, there is a possibility that additional defence spending may predominantly be allocated to cover personnel costs rather than addressing critical needs, such as the development of advanced military capabilities or training. Achieving the right balance in order to guarantee long-term strategic readiness is crucial. Furthermore, efficiency and effectiveness in defence cannot be assessed solely in financial terms. Without a clear focus on standardisation and interoperability, progress will likely remain incremental rather than transformative. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has underscored the critical importance of ensuring that national armed forces are capable of operating together effectively and efficiently. As such, the European family has yet to decide how to foster standardisation and interoperability. To achieve this goal, different options exist:

1. Alignment of EU defence initiatives with established NATO standards, and/or
2. Strengthening the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) and the Capability Development Plan (CDP) to improve alignment between member-states’ defence planning and capabilities, and/or
3. Use/strengthening of existing mechanisms (for example, the European Defence Agency) or launch of new – potentially pan-European – initiatives (for example, the European Defence Mechanism, see below).

• Regarding the fiscal space that the national escape clause may provide, an issue not addressed is how the (already destabilised due to the tariff war) financial markets will respond to potential increases in debt levels across the EU member-states. Southern EU member-states have already expressed their doubts on the possibility of further indebting themselves, which will undermine – or further derail – the long-term sustainability of their sovereign debt. Instead, they favour the issuance of “Defence Eurobonds”, which practically entails the EU borrowing money from the capital markets and then distributing it to member-states in the form of grants. Needless to say, in this case, the identification of the distribution criteria will be challenging. Another option would be the establishment of an ESM-like intergovernmental mechanism, called the European Defence Mechanism (EDM), as described in a Bruegel proposal prepared for the Polish Presidency. To be more precise, this extra-EU intergovernmental organisation could act as a “planner, funder and potentially owner of strategic enablers”, allowing the debt incurred to acquire certain defence assets to remain on the EDM’s books instead of national accounts.
• Although “implementation, implementation, implementation” is important, one of the key criticisms lies in the creative ambiguity that characterises parts of the White Paper. Given diverging views among member-states, certain concepts are not fully clarified and allow for multiple interpretations. For example, the Proposal for a SAFE Regulation contains a European preference clause for the procurement source (at least 65% of the costs of the final product must originate from within the Union, Ukraine or EEA/EFTA states). However, the text seems to adopt an extremely wide definition vis-à-vis the potentially eligible third countries that may participate in a procurement consortium. In particular, it states that ‘the Union may conclude bilateral or multilateral agreements with like-minded countries, namely acceding countries, candidate countries other than Ukraine and potential candidates’. In that sense, all current and potential candidate countries constitute like-minded partners for the Union, which is – at least – disputable in the current geopolitical context.
• Finally, issues of implementation are closely linked to (the lack of) legitimacy. It is crucial to encourage public understanding and support for the need to boost defence investments. By having Article 122 TFEU as a legal basis, the Commission bypasses the European Parliament, although the latter has repeatedly positioned itself in favour of enhanced defence cooperation. For example, the European Parliament has recently proposed a higher budget for EDIP, indicating that it is ready to constructively back such defence-related initiatives. It has also called on the European Commission and the member-states “to enable and strengthen parliamentary oversight of EU external action…by involving Parliament in the proper further implementation and scrutiny of the EPF and the Strategic Compass”, thus highlighting its willingness and readiness to oversee key defence tools. The exclusion of the European Parliament from the legislative process could lead to mounting public criticism and a growing negative public disposition to increased defence spending.
• All the aforementioned arguments are deeply interconnected with the absence of a truly common threat perception and, by extension, the member-states’ unwillingness to establish a truly Common Foreign and Security Policy. As such, it becomes nearly impossible to effectively align national defence (industrial) strategies and investments. Obviously, in the absence of such a unified vision and foreign policy framework, governments prioritise national needs over broader pan-European strategic objectives. Can we realistically expect EU defence to emerge in such a political vacuum?

 

 

 

 

[1] Official data from the European Defence Agency (EDA).

[2] Different numbers may also appear due to inflation and changes in currency exchange rates.

[3] Other relevant expenditures comprise the national contributions to CSDP military missions and operations as well as EU Battlegroups. Although these are EU-led initiatives, the associated costs are, in principle, borne by the participating member-states under the ‘costs-lie-where-they-fall’ principle.

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