Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner argue that states and coalitions must soon decide whether they will become norm-takers or norm-makers.

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner argue that states and coalitions must soon decide whether they will become norm-takers or norm-makers.

Mit dem Nationalen Sicherheitsrat entsteht im Bundeskanzleramt ein neues Gremium. Zu seinen Aufgaben zählt, sich mit zukünftigen Herausforderungen auf internationaler Ebene zu befassen. Ein Instrument spielt dabei eine zentrale Rolle: die strategische Vorausschau. Sie berücksichtigt über den Horizont aktueller Lagebewertungen hinaus künftige Entwicklungen.

Große Aufmerksamkeit dürfte dem transatlantischen Verhältnis zukommen, denn seit dem Amtsantritt der zweiten Trump-Administration ist das Vertrauen der europäischen Verbündeten der USA in die Verlässlichkeit der amerikanischen Außenpolitik tief erschüttert. Die Frage steht im Raum: Was wären die Folgen, wenn sich die USA von der NATO abwenden würden? Regierungsvertreter tun sich jedoch schwer, solche heiklen, aber vorstellbaren Szenarien zu kommentieren – insbesondere dann, wenn sie befreundete oder mächtige Staaten betreffen. Auf entsprechende Nachfragen von Medien erfolgt oft eine ausweichende Antwort: Man wolle nichts herbeireden oder gar spekulieren.

Diese Zurückhaltung ist aus diplomatischer Sicht nachvollziehbar. Die Auseinandersetzung mit hypothetischen Entwicklungen in anderen Staaten kann als Einmischung gewertet werden, wenn sie offen kommuniziert wird. Solche Spannungen möchte man in Berlin und Brüssel angesichts der ohnehin belasteten Beziehungen zu Washington vermeiden.

Denken, was nicht gesagt werden soll

Doch das Ausblenden brisanter Entwicklungen birgt Risiken: Wenn etwas Unerwartetes eintritt, ist die Krise plötzlich da. Denkbare Beispiele wären ein Wahlerfolg des Rassemblement National bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen in Frankreich, eine chinesische Invasion Taiwans oder Massenproteste in Russland, die das Putin-Regime erschüttern. Gerade wegen der Brisanz solcher Szenarien scheut die Politik deren öffentliche Diskussion – aus Sorge vor politischem Schaden.

Daraus ergibt sich die wichtigste Anforderung an die strategische Vorausschau: Sie muss sowohl unabhängig als auch politisch relevant sein, um den erhofften Mehrwert zu liefern – eine frühzeitige Auseinandersetzung mit politisch heiklen Entwicklungen, so dass hinreichend Zeit für die Vorbereitung auf solche Eventualitäten bleibt.

Unabhängigkeit bedeutet vor allem, hypothetische Entwicklungen unvoreingenommen und ohne Rücksicht auf politische Tabus analysieren zu können. Diese Bedingung spricht gegen eine enge Anbindung strategischer Vorausschau an den neuen Sicherheitsrat. Denn als integraler Bestandteil der Regierung unterliegt er den gleichen Restriktionen wie Ministerien und Behörden. Zudem würden hohe Sicherheitsanforderungen die Öffnung gegenüber nichtstaatlichen Akteuren erschweren. Relevante Zukunftsentwicklungen, die sich oft auf gesellschaftlicher Ebene abzeichnen, könnten leicht übersehen werden. Und Fachkenntnisse aus der Wissenschaft würden womöglich ungenutzt bleiben.

Demgegenüber ist eine regierungsunabhängige Einrichtung besser geeignet, fundierte Zukunftsanalysen frei von politischen Bedenken zu erarbeiten. Wissenschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Partizipation ließe sich einfacher gewährleisten. Für die Bundesregierung hätte ein solcher Ansatz auch diplomatische Vorteile: Kritik aus dem Ausland an Befunden ließe sich der Wind aus den Segeln nehmen. So könnte die Bundesregierung bedenkliche Entwicklungen im Blick behalten, ohne sich zu sehr zu exponieren.

Die Kehrseite der Unabhängigkeit ist das Risiko geringer politischer Relevanz. Eine Möglichkeit, dem entgegenzuwirken, ist ein enger personeller Austausch zwischen Zukunftsanalyse einerseits und operativer Politik andererseits. Das bringt unterschiedliche Wissensstände, Fragestellungen und Herangehensweisen in Kontakt und würde konzeptionelle wie operative Anstöße für zukunftsorientiertes Regierungshandeln geben. Schließlich wäre die Anbindung an den Bundestag eine wertvolle Absicherung der Relevanz einer solchen Einrichtung. Strategische Vorausschau sollte also an der Schnittstelle zwischen Bundesregierung, Bundestag, Wissenschaft und Gesellschaft angesiedelt werden.

Die schlechte Vorbereitung auf viele Krisen der vergangenen Jahrzehnte verdeutlicht die Notwendigkeit strategischer Vorausschau. Die Herausforderung für den neuen Sicherheitsrat besteht darin, ihre Erkenntnisse in die politische Entscheidungsfindung einzubeziehen, ohne sie politisch zu vereinnahmen.

Die Eskalation zwischen Indien und Pakistan rückt Kaschmir erneut ins globale Blickfeld. Der Konflikt könnte zukünftig noch gefährlicher werden.

The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for April 2025.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation in the House of Representatives aimed at deepening U.S. security cooperation with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. The proposed legislation, titled the American-Hellenic-Israeli Eastern Mediterranean Counterterrorism and Maritime Security Partnership Act of 2025, was introduced by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and co-led by Reps. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.). It aims to bolster collaboration on counterterrorism and maritime security, while formalizing the 3+1 framework —a strategic dialogue initiative involving Greece, Cyprus, and Israel in partnership with the United States— as a platform for long-term strategic cooperation.

Having collaborated with President Donald Trump in the past, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed confidence in his ability to do so again effectively, emphasizing the potential for a ‘win-win’ U.S.-EU trade deal, during an interview with Breitbart News, on April 9. Trump responded to Greek Prime Minister’s interview and his comments on a potential EU-US trade deal, stating “I agree. I know him, he’s a good man, I appreciate his comments. […] Yes, a deal can be made with any of them”.

Following a press release dated April 14, the American-Hellenic Chamber of Commerce announced the establishment of its branch office in Washington, D.C., strengthening its presence in the United States. The new office will actively contribute to the further development of bilateral trade and economic relations between the two countries, supporting the international expansion of Greek businesses and attracting American companies and investments. The establishment of the branch is a strategic decision that has been carefully planned and prepared over time, marking a new era for bilateral economic and commercial relations.

With regard to defence procurement, a key component of the 12-year, €28 billion defense procurement plan approved by the Greek Government Council for Foreign and Defense Affairs (KYSEA) on April 16 is the upgrade of the F-16 Block 50 fighter jets to the Viper configuration. During the KYSEA meeting, the discussion focused on ongoing negotiations between Greece and the United States, which seek to resolve financial differences surrounding the upgrade program. Under the Long-Term Defense Armaments Program (MPAE), €1 billion has been allocated for the upgrade of 38 aircraft. However, this amount still falls short of the informal US offer, which stands at €1.5 billion. American manufacturing companies have said that there is very limited room to reduce costs. Despite this, according to Stavros Ioannidis (Kathimerini), negotiations remain active, with the two sides exploring different options.

Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou, responsible for Economic Diplomacy and Extroversion, met on April 16 with a visiting US Congressional delegation. Both sides reaffirmed the historically excellent relations between Greece and the United States, and discussed bilateral cooperation and the challenges the global community faces. At the same time, both sides discussed Greece’s strategy in extroversion and the attraction of investments. Chatzivasileiou underlined that Greece is a responsible force of stability in the East Mediterranean and a reliable partner for the future of economic cooperation and geopolitical stability.

Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis met on April 17 with a delegation of the US Congress, consisting of 10 Representatives from the Republican and Democratic Parties, led by Congressman Vern Buchanan (R-FL). During the meeting, Hatzidakis stressed that “the Greek economy is growing steadily and is increasingly becoming an economy of opportunities for investment and new jobs.” “The combination of political stability and a mix of economic policies further enhances the attractiveness of the country,” he stated in a post on social media.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. But the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and tangible throughout Russia. They include the growing number of human losses, criminalisation and legal nihilism. Moreover, the spread of gangster-like norms and practices from the occupied territories to Russia proper could eventually lead to the “Donbasisation” of Russia.

Informal “minilateral” coalitions of the willing and interested have long been a feature of peacemaking. Groups of states identified as “friends” of the mediator or a particular peace process and contact groups bringing together interested powers date back to concert diplomacy traditions and proliferated at the end of the Cold War as conflict resolution activity surged. The incidence of such informal mechanisms grew exponentially between 1990 and 2009.

This report assesses how these mechanisms have evolved in the years since 2010 and investigates their place in parallel to the UN’s efforts to mediate internationalized internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; peace processes in the Philippines, Colombia, and Mozambique taking place in relatively benign regional settings, as well as the anomalous case of Venezuela, where efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the political crisis were mired in international divisions; the geopolitically contested contexts of Myanmar and Afghanistan; and the democratic transition and descent into war in Sudan.

The report concludes that groups have the potential to build internal coherence among their members, as well as to elevate public messaging and facilitate information sharing, but they can also become a forum for competition between their members. In this context, the report offers lessons to help those considering whether a group is appropriate. The “right” group structure will depend on the context, and the adage of “form follows function” is critically important. It is key to set realistic expectations and, in some cases, accept that the “right” structure will be no group at all. Successful groups and partnerships all point to the importance of skilled individual mediators committed to working with each other, whether within a group or without an established mechanism. Finally, some contexts may defy attempts to design or deliver a coherent international peace architecture. In these cases, more modest goals related to specific or localized gains and incremental support to conflict parties and other affected communities should be pursued.

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The post Minilateral Mechanisms for Peacemaking in a Multipolar World: Friends, Contact Groups, Troikas, Quads, and Quints appeared first on International Peace Institute.

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have played a central role in financing sustainable development for over eight decades. Their growing prominence in international development cooperation is evident in the First Draft of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) Outcome Document, where they are mentioned over 40 times—a fourfold increase from the Addis Ababa Action Agenda adopted at FfD3 a decade ago. The wide range of issues they are now expected to address further highlights this heightened focus...

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have played a central role in financing sustainable development for over eight decades. Their growing prominence in international development cooperation is evident in the First Draft of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) Outcome Document, where they are mentioned over 40 times—a fourfold increase from the Addis Ababa Action Agenda adopted at FfD3 a decade ago. The wide range of issues they are now expected to address further highlights this heightened focus...

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) have played a central role in financing sustainable development for over eight decades. Their growing prominence in international development cooperation is evident in the First Draft of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) Outcome Document, where they are mentioned over 40 times—a fourfold increase from the Addis Ababa Action Agenda adopted at FfD3 a decade ago. The wide range of issues they are now expected to address further highlights this heightened focus...

Las ciudades son actores clave en la lucha contra el cambio climático. La movilidad y el desarrollo urbano deben abordarse de manera integrada para lograr una transformación verdaderamente sostenible. Esta publicación, fruto del trabajo conjunto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y el German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), explora estrategias de sostenibilidad urbana centradas en el aprovechamiento de los beneficios compartidos del transporte público masivo.
A través del estudio de seis ciudades en América Latina y Asia, se analizan oportunidades para financiar el transporte masivo mediante la valorización del suelo, el desarrollo urbano orientado al transporte y mecanismos innovadores de financiamiento. Comparando experiencias de Bogotá (Colombia), São Paulo (Brasil), San José (Costa Rica), Hong Kong (China), Delhi (India) y Yakarta (Indonesia), el análisis destaca cómo la coordinación de políticas públicas y una planificación estratégica pueden transformar la movilidad en un motor de desarrollo económico y social, que genera beneficios compartidos y abre nuevas oportunidades de financiamiento para las ciudades.

Las ciudades son actores clave en la lucha contra el cambio climático. La movilidad y el desarrollo urbano deben abordarse de manera integrada para lograr una transformación verdaderamente sostenible. Esta publicación, fruto del trabajo conjunto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y el German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), explora estrategias de sostenibilidad urbana centradas en el aprovechamiento de los beneficios compartidos del transporte público masivo.
A través del estudio de seis ciudades en América Latina y Asia, se analizan oportunidades para financiar el transporte masivo mediante la valorización del suelo, el desarrollo urbano orientado al transporte y mecanismos innovadores de financiamiento. Comparando experiencias de Bogotá (Colombia), São Paulo (Brasil), San José (Costa Rica), Hong Kong (China), Delhi (India) y Yakarta (Indonesia), el análisis destaca cómo la coordinación de políticas públicas y una planificación estratégica pueden transformar la movilidad en un motor de desarrollo económico y social, que genera beneficios compartidos y abre nuevas oportunidades de financiamiento para las ciudades.

Las ciudades son actores clave en la lucha contra el cambio climático. La movilidad y el desarrollo urbano deben abordarse de manera integrada para lograr una transformación verdaderamente sostenible. Esta publicación, fruto del trabajo conjunto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y el German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), explora estrategias de sostenibilidad urbana centradas en el aprovechamiento de los beneficios compartidos del transporte público masivo.
A través del estudio de seis ciudades en América Latina y Asia, se analizan oportunidades para financiar el transporte masivo mediante la valorización del suelo, el desarrollo urbano orientado al transporte y mecanismos innovadores de financiamiento. Comparando experiencias de Bogotá (Colombia), São Paulo (Brasil), San José (Costa Rica), Hong Kong (China), Delhi (India) y Yakarta (Indonesia), el análisis destaca cómo la coordinación de políticas públicas y una planificación estratégica pueden transformar la movilidad en un motor de desarrollo económico y social, que genera beneficios compartidos y abre nuevas oportunidades de financiamiento para las ciudades.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu argues that AI can transform media development programming by enabling smarter early warning systems to protect journalists, especially against fast-moving threats.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu argues that AI can transform media development programming by enabling smarter early warning systems to protect journalists, especially against fast-moving threats.

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu argues that AI can transform media development programming by enabling smarter early warning systems to protect journalists, especially against fast-moving threats.

Research suggests that the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely by women than men, given their specific socioeconomic roles. It is crucial to recognise the differentiated impacts of climate change on women and the importance of their inclusion in mitigation and adaptation policies, where their voices are often unheard and their concerns remain unaddressed. As international development assistance constricts, crucial lifelines on which many projects that address gender equality rely are disappearing. Winding down such projects can also jeopardise the fragile progress made to address the structural socioeconomic conditions that create gender inequality.
Increased gender mainstreaming in national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, for example, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), can be one way to effectively address gender inequality in climate action. Countries can develop specific climate change mitigation and adaptation plans to address gender inequality. As a new set of updated NDCs will be submitted in 2025 by the countries committed to the Paris Agreement, it is an opportune time to enhance gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs (NDC 3.0) based on concrete policies and actions. This policy brief explores how gender was addressed in the previous round of NDCs (NDC 2.0) of the least developed countries (LDCs) with high gender inequality. A content analysis was conducted to explore how different gendered policy approaches were mentioned in NDC 2.0 of the LDCs. Based on the findings, this policy brief provides key policy insights for better gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs.
Key policy insights:
• Gender mainstreaming needs to be integrated at all policy-making stages and within society, not as an add-on as it is in many NDCs.
• Women in LDCs, particularly those at greater risk of climate disasters, should be prioritised, reaching the farthest away and the most affected first in any international support for climate action projects.
• Gender mainstreaming in climate change mitigation would be essential to creating oppor-tunities for all genders to participate in the tech-nological transformation to a low-carbon society that pursues gender transformative changes.
• Projects with gender transformative plans take time and require long-term consistent funding, and greater focus is needed to choose the right projects to address structural inequalities.
• Research is required to develop evidence-based solutions, and often LDCs lack research funds for long-term studies. Research funding support from developed countries can help LDCs to improve research in LDCs and produce evidence to inform policy action.
• Gender-disaggregated data needs to be collected and used to design, evaluate, implement and fund targeted transformative policies to tackle gender inequality.

Research suggests that the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely by women than men, given their specific socioeconomic roles. It is crucial to recognise the differentiated impacts of climate change on women and the importance of their inclusion in mitigation and adaptation policies, where their voices are often unheard and their concerns remain unaddressed. As international development assistance constricts, crucial lifelines on which many projects that address gender equality rely are disappearing. Winding down such projects can also jeopardise the fragile progress made to address the structural socioeconomic conditions that create gender inequality.
Increased gender mainstreaming in national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, for example, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), can be one way to effectively address gender inequality in climate action. Countries can develop specific climate change mitigation and adaptation plans to address gender inequality. As a new set of updated NDCs will be submitted in 2025 by the countries committed to the Paris Agreement, it is an opportune time to enhance gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs (NDC 3.0) based on concrete policies and actions. This policy brief explores how gender was addressed in the previous round of NDCs (NDC 2.0) of the least developed countries (LDCs) with high gender inequality. A content analysis was conducted to explore how different gendered policy approaches were mentioned in NDC 2.0 of the LDCs. Based on the findings, this policy brief provides key policy insights for better gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs.
Key policy insights:
• Gender mainstreaming needs to be integrated at all policy-making stages and within society, not as an add-on as it is in many NDCs.
• Women in LDCs, particularly those at greater risk of climate disasters, should be prioritised, reaching the farthest away and the most affected first in any international support for climate action projects.
• Gender mainstreaming in climate change mitigation would be essential to creating oppor-tunities for all genders to participate in the tech-nological transformation to a low-carbon society that pursues gender transformative changes.
• Projects with gender transformative plans take time and require long-term consistent funding, and greater focus is needed to choose the right projects to address structural inequalities.
• Research is required to develop evidence-based solutions, and often LDCs lack research funds for long-term studies. Research funding support from developed countries can help LDCs to improve research in LDCs and produce evidence to inform policy action.
• Gender-disaggregated data needs to be collected and used to design, evaluate, implement and fund targeted transformative policies to tackle gender inequality.