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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Hong Kong’s Latest National Security Taboos: 4th of July and a Video Game

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 15:29
Hong Kong's increasingly brittle government responds to children’s books, mobile games, and foreign holidays with legal threats and censorship.

Why Did Japan Skip the NATO Summit?

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 14:59
A confluence of factors – U.S. strikes on Iran and a focus on defense spending hikes – likely led Prime Minister Ishiba to stay home.

Achieving Australian Abundance

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 14:27
As Treasurer Jim Chalmers put it, “We want good things to happen, we’ve got to stop strangling good things from happening.”

On Regional Tensions, Don’t Expect Too Much of ASEAN

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 09:16
The Southeast Asian bloc is well-positioned to play an active role in managing, though not solving, regional conflicts.

Cambodia Allowing Abuses to Flourish in Online Scam Compounds, Rights Group Says

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 07:49
Amnesty International claims that abuses including torture are being carried out on a "mass scale" in scamming compounds across the country.

Myanmar Junta Chief Restates Plans to Hold Elections At Year’s End

TheDiplomat - Fri, 27/06/2025 - 03:50
Critics say that the military regime's election plans are intended to enshrine military rule behind a civilian façade.

Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration Has a New, But Familiar, Head: Saida Mirziyoyeva

TheDiplomat - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 19:44
Mirziyoyeva, the president’s daughter, brings with her as an adviser another familiar face: Komil Allamjonov.

Des usages de la compassion

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 19:26
Solidarité, responsabilité : des mots qui ont, depuis quelque temps, repris une forte actualité pour souligner ce qui est dû aux moins privilégiés — les « vulnérables » — au nom d'une égalité imparfaite et de la volonté de corriger les injustices. Le vivre-ensemble passe alors par l'attention portée au (...) / , , , , , - 2022/12

How Secure Are Taiwan’s Remaining Diplomatic Partnerships?

TheDiplomat - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 19:25
As China continues its quest to win over Taiwan’s allies, which countries might be the next to switch?

How 90 Days of Accelerated Trade Alliances Reshaped Southeast Asia

TheDiplomat - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 19:03
The U.S. government's "reciprocal tariffs" have prompted a rapid overhaul of trade blocs in the Asia-Pacific, especially in Southeast Asia.

Prudentes émancipations en Asie centrale

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 18:22
Si aucun des pays d'Asie centrale ne l'a officiellement condamnée, l'agression russe contre l'Ukraine fait grincer des dents dans la région. Jusqu'alors garant de la sécurité, Moscou voit son monopole contesté par d'autres, comme les États-Unis, qui reviennent après leur débâcle afghane. / Asie (...) / , , , , , , , , - 2022/12

La réforme dévore ses enfants

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 17:26
La haute fonction publique se croyait à l'abri. Elle observait d'un œil bienveillant les réformes de l'État. Mais la messe est dite : la marée qui a dépeuplé les secrétariats administratifs, découragé les enseignants, mis les infirmières en burn-out, conduit des policiers au suicide, lèche désormais les (...) / , , , - 2022/12

Iran’s Nuclear Sites Under Fire: What It Means for Pakistan

TheDiplomat - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 16:30
Any precedent that legitimizes or supports strikes on nuclear infrastructure increases security risks for Pakistan.

Why is Mob Violence So Common in Bangladesh?

TheDiplomat - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 16:28
The country has normalized mob culture where force, fear, and informal power often override law and justice.

Dans les sens interdits

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 16:22
Un texte qui est mis aux arrêts par les censeurs peut-il exister ? Est-il déjà condamné à disparaître ? C'est le thème de ce roman, dont la dense brièveté, calculée au trébuchet, décuple l'effet coup de poing. Une succession d'épisodes le compose, où se répondent, comme dans une chambre d'échos, les divers (...) / , , , , , , - 2022/12

Entendre la poussière

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 26/06/2025 - 15:25
Avant de devenir, dans sa traduction française, Le Fleuve des souvenirs, le titre du roman de l'Espagnol José Maria Merino, paru en 2012, était El río del Edén. Ce choix renvoie certes à la construction du récit, qui s'échafaude et se reconstitue à partir de la mémoire de ses principaux personnages, (...) / , - 2022/12

Close NATO’s Door to Ukraine

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 20/06/2025 - 06:00
Years of empty promises have not helped Kyiv or fostered peace.

The Right Path to Regime Change in Iran

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 20/06/2025 - 06:00
How America and Israel can create the conditions for the toppling of the Islamic Republic.

Don’t Betray “America First” With a War on Iran

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 18/06/2025 - 23:58
Trump should support—but not join—Israel’s fight.

Budapest Declaration and OTS

Foreign Policy Blogs - Wed, 18/06/2025 - 18:43

In recent years, diplomatic developments have significantly disrupted and reshaped the global trade and logistics systems that had been established over decades. One of the most impactful events in this context was Russia’s — or more precisely, President Vladimir Putin’s — decision to launch a military invasion of Ukraine, effectively sparking the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that began in March 2022.

In response, the West — namely the United States and Western Europe — sought to impose severe economic penalties on Russia as both a form of punishment for igniting a European war and as a strategy to cripple its military and other critical sectors by cutting off financial lifelines. As part of this effort, Western Europe dap dramatically reduced its purchases of Russian natural gas and began searching for alternatives to both Russian gas and oil (it’s important to note that Russia is the world’s largest gas exporter and the second-largest oil exporter, after Saudi Arabia). Furthermore, Western countries are avoiding any diplomatic or economic engagements that might benefit Russia — including allowing goods to transit through Russian territory, which could generate revenue for Moscow through taxes.

A similar approach has been adopted toward another pariah state — the Islamic Republic of Iran. The recent war between Hamas and Israel, along with Iran’s involvement in supporting jihadist attacks and missile strikes, has led the West to double down on efforts to economically isolate Iran, much like they have with Russia.

It is precisely in this geopolitical context — where Russia and Iran have become largely untouchable for most global actors — that the “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS) has emerged. This alliance, while not radically different from the European Union in structure or vision, resembles the foundational logic behind the United States of America — only this time, among Turkic-speaking nations. Member states include Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Historically, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser attempted to create a unified Arab state, based on the belief that a pan-Arab union — blessed with oil, natural resources, and control over critical chokepoints like the Suez Canal — would be geopolitically unbeatable. That vision failed, primarily because every Arab leader at the time wanted to be the one in charge. Today, the Turkic alliance avoids that trap. It is not about creating a new country, but about forming a unified bloc that empowers each member and increases their collective influence in dealing with the West and the East.

The OTS’s objective is to establish a barrier-free space for international cooperation and joint development, stretching from Western Europe to South and East Asia. Its strategic mission is to reunify the fractured Eurasian continent — which global powers have historically divided — and to restore peace as a central element in the global agenda. Unlike the failed pan-Arab unity project, which was founded on hostility toward Israel, the OTS is not built on conflict but on shared interests for regional stability and prosperity.

So what gives the OTS its strategic strength in this complex global moment? The answer lies in geography and logistics. The Turkic states control the only viable overland route for transporting goods between Europe and parts of Asia. They also serve as critical gateways for Europe to access essential natural resources — both those located within the Turkic states themselves and those that must pass through them en route to Europe. With the West refusing to collaborate with Iran and Russia, the OTS corridor — which stretches from China and Pakistan to the heart of Europe in Hungary — becomes essential.

A successful partnership between the OTS and European states could lead to uniquely accessible transport and communications corridors that connect Western Europe’s economic hubs with those in East Asia, while also linking them to the growing markets and production centers of Central and South Asia. In short, this is a win-win situation for everyone — except, of course, for Russia and Iran.

On May 21, Budapest — the capital of Hungary — hosted the latest OTS summit. Although Hungary is a European country, it holds observer status within the OTS and actively participates in its activities (it’s worth remembering that large parts of Hungary were once under Ottoman rule). There is, in fact, no significant geopolitical gap between Hungary and the Turkic states. As Europe has lost its traditional eastern routes through Russia and Iran and now faces instability along its southern borders — not to mention threats to the Suez Canal — it seems that the OTS corridor may be Europe’s only realistic path to the East. 

Without it, Europe risks becoming a marginal appendage to the United States — a country skilled at rhetoric but lacking meaningful initiatives. European states have begun adjusting their foreign policies accordingly, recognizing the OTS as a key player in the emerging Eurasian order. Even the European Union was forced to accept the observer status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the OTS — despite longstanding opposition from Greece.

The OTS also offers political backing to Hungary against pressure from liberal elites within the EU and presents an alternative to other “pseudo-liberal” projects.

At the conclusion of the summit, the OTS issued the “Budapest Declaration,” directed at global leaders and especially those in Europe. The declaration emphasized the OTS’s vital role in securing global peace, security, and sustainable development. It reaffirmed the Turkic states’ commitment to building a reliable transportation and communication corridor linking Europe to Asia, fostering a zone of peace and development along the way. The core message was a call to overcome international divisions and construct a peace-oriented region stretching from Europe to China. However, the declaration did not shy away from defense and security issues — for example, it referenced the expansion of cooperation in the defense industry.

The OTS draws upon Turkic legacies of the past, promotes inclusivity, and is rooted in shared histories across regions such as the South Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. The Budapest Declaration underscores the “Turkic World Vision,” which affirms the value of uniting Turkic nations not only through a shared past, but through a common vision for the present and future. The vision promotes cooperation based on a shared Turkic identity, history, culture, and traditions, explicitly rejecting racist ideologies and embracing multiculturalism. The definition of a “Turkic state” is broadly interpreted — as evidenced by Hungary’s observer status.

It appears that the Turkic era is making a powerful return, echoing the days when three great Turkic empires — the Ottoman, the Mamluk, and the Mongol — dominated the Middle East, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and Asia. History, it seems, is repeating itself.

 Among all the member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), one country stands out more than the rest—Azerbaijan. First and foremost, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan holds a crucial position in the emerging trade corridor the OTS is striving to establish. Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan controls a key transit route from Europe to several important regions in Asia, making its role irreplaceable. Without its cooperation, the entire trade initiative would likely collapse.

Secondly, over the past few years, Azerbaijan has gradually become one of the major transportation and logistics hubs in the wider Eurasian region. This status was acknowledged by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who publicly thanked Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for the logistical support Azerbaijan provided in boosting Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Third, Azerbaijan is the largest investor among all Turkic states, with its total investments in OTS countries exceeding 20 billion US dollars. This financial strength suggests that Azerbaijan may well be the most economically stable member of the organization—and potentially one of the most militarily capable as well.

Aside from Turkey, Azerbaijan is the only OTS member that has engaged in actual warfare in the past decade. Its conflict with Armenia led to increased military funding and the development of a highly trained army. In addition, Azerbaijan maintains exceptionally close ties with Turkey—often referred to as its “brother nation”—and with Kazakhstan, with whom it cooperates across a wide range of sectors. Taken together, these factors position Azerbaijan as arguably the strongest member of the OTS in terms of economy, security, and diplomacy. What is certain, however, is that it is one of the most dominant and influential players within the organization.

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