Diplomacy & Crisis News

Discussions surrounding the entrance into a Third World War by some media commentaries take the position that wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East will lead to an inevitable conflict between China and Taiwan without many other options to quell the oncoming conflict. While the War in Ukraine was entering a period of set defensive positions and trench warfare, September of 2023 actually saw an upcoming peace treaty forming in the Middle East between two of its major powers, China attempting to play the role as peace broker between conflicting parties, and India making roads into regions beyond its own to balance the power dynamic abroad. Conflict is never inevitable, but contributing to self inflicted wounds will always have a negative impact on one’s own society.

Russia has been able to renew production in one of its main factories that produce the T-72B3M tank and the newer and more modern T-90 and T-90M tanks due to increased revenues gained during the war. While Russia has been taking old stocks of T-62s and T-55s and putting them into active combat, the revenue it has gained from oil sales since heavy sanctions were placed on them since the start of the war in 2022 has not hurt Russia’s economy as intended. Some analysts claim that while Russian oil exports were cut to some degree to the rest of Europe, a main source of oil from Azerbaijan to Europe could include a good percentage of Russian energy exports. It is claimed that Russia has been able to still sell its energy exports to Europe through third countries, who purchases the oil from Russia and sells it into Europe via their established links. If generally known by NATO and its allies, funds going through a third party to Russia is clearly and knowingly evading sanctions and fuelling not only European energy grids, but Russian tank factories extending the war. Increased military spending to Ukraine thus becomes less effective when funds are also leaking into Russia to support their war economy as well. Quelling further conflict is an economic issue as much as it depends on victories on the battlefield. NATO must secure their energy needs from their allies to end the war. Funding conflict by any means only leads to more conflict.

The result of the oil dependency on Azerbaijan has lead to conflict on the borders of Europe and Russia, where a historic act of Ethnic Cleansing has taken place as a result of the situation discussed above. In September of 2023, the region of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh was taken over by Azeri forces completely, and much of the ancient Armenian population of the region was actively and passively removed from the ethnic enclave they have resided in for thousands of years. Russian treaties establishing peacekeepers in the region was not activated in 2023 due to Russian attention in Ukraine, as well as what some suggest the oil arrangement mentioned above between Russia and Azerbaijan. American efforts to negotiate between the two sides gave few results, while US NATO ally Turkey, enabled much of the military achievements by Azerbaijan over Armenian militia in Artsakh. As recent as September 2023, a major human rights tragedy has taken place, with little to no mention of it in Western media, even though it was against Western strategic interests and values.

The links between Russia, Iran and China are often geographical, and like minded peoples in the region should be welcomed without reservations to bolster a peaceful alliance of nations. The historic neutral position India has taken had always enabled it to be a broker between NATO and the Soviet Union in the past, and had lead to some interesting agreements. An example of this is the Indian military, that uses French aircraft and British equipment while producing under contract Ex-Soviet and Russian weapons for their domestic military. Much of the export focus and infrastructure agreements between Russia and Iran focuses on a path to get Russian export to India, one of Russia’s largest markets. While the West should allow India to take any measures it deems necessary to secure their national interests, it should also stand with India against threats it sees in its own region from fundamentalism and pressure from China. India is set to become one of the most powerful nations in the world, and is the key to many peace agreements by working to end conflicts to its own benefit. India has even sold MLRS systems Armenia, seeing that distant nation as one that should be supported, even when Russia and the United States had let their community suffer another bout of atrocities. Any NATO or Western ally that intends to sour relations with India or enable further conflict will only enable future wars. India and its values are similar to those in the West, and support for those values are what ends future conflicts.

Western countries must be clear and concise in applying their laws equally, and should have zero tolerance for activities in their nations that produce conflict locally and in other parts of the world. This also means that actions in Western countries should have legal and political consequences if they contribute to conflict, terror and atrocities themselves. Funding for groups and the enablement of systemic corruption to foreign nations via systemic loopholes is one of the key sources of financing for many of the security issues we see today. This applies abroad, as well as internally. Allowing illegal funds to flow through a stable community will subject many legal transactions to sanctions due to their links to crimes against humanity abroad. A purchase of a car or even a home can produce a massive loss of assets if it discovered that the asset is linked to nefarious organisations, and a Western or any Government should be liable if it allows extreme elements to benefit or manipulate their economic systems to the detriment of their own populations. Allies must be allies in every sense of the word, or be ejected from NATO and other organisations for negligence and corruption. As we see post Sept 2023, a false ally leads to some of the worst consequences known to humanity.

The Sinjar Mountain range was the site of a massacre of the small Yazidi community in 2014.

The values that created the concept of Proportionality are as essential to a democratic system as the core tenets of Human Rights and all core Constitutional foundations. Arbitrary justice towards innocent people are as damaging as the disproportionate application of laws and state actions towards anyone accused of an act against the state. This basic standard has to be applied even in cases when an illegal act occurred, is unproven, or simply fictional. Ignoring or removing Proportionality from society does not only unravel justice, but is inherently Anti-Renaissance and has no final resolution that would be recognisable in a modern society.

The normalisation of brutal actions against some of the oldest cultures to still exist on Earth came after 2013 when the world was forced to acknowledge the human rights atrocities taking place in the Sinjar Mountains against a small, ancient community known as the Yazidis. Like many of the oldest communities to still exist in that region, that era saw the introduction of atrocities reflective of the most darkest of ages, with actions being taken against defenseless civilians not seen since the Second World War.

Despite that era demonstrating the capacity of brutality against innocents, there was little discussion of atrocities taking place against the Yazidis after the initial condemnation. While conflict was still taking place and shifts in territory and power were constant, the initial response from Western media turned to silence on the issue. Despite many being taken into slavery, tortured and executed for simply being born of their ancient culture, an unacceptable silence was coordinated that avoided and ignored their plight. The commission of acts of crime against humanity done to Yazidi women and youth, along with such crimes against other ethnic minorities inside Iraq and the surrounding region, was not unique to being subject to silence. Since then, silence has come in the same manner to other human rights atrocities and in many cases were made to become an appalling standard for acceptance. What such responses have done was to normalise a mark on humanity where our descendants will look back at our time in history with shame.

The silence and normalisation of the actions taken against the Yazidi and other victims of brutality did not end with a silence of words, but continued with silencing justice as well. While some Yazidi women were able to escape and survive their atrocity, there were  documented cases in a Western countries where the Yazidi refugee/survivor ran into their torturer in the same country and city they sought protection in. In one notable case, when the refugee sought help and protection after being threatened yet again, she was told to be silent about it and ignore her most basic rights to justice and security. The same government who pushed her silence then used such silence to create more danger to her and others afterward, eventually celebrating their historic loss of Proportionality in an epic display of both ignorance and viciousness in their democracy. This normalisation started a trend that has now become something most would see as unrecognisable to their community just a few very short years ago.

The normalisation of this unravelling of Proportionality through silence, harassment, and open contempt for others has no end game that would build anything apart from a disproportionate set of laws that only offer justice to a few generational elites and those who would commit to power through coercion. The reality is that such actions have that as their core purpose. That purpose has no future for any of us in any form.

The fall of the Soviet Union lead to severe economic and security challenges for Russia and its former Soviet States. The recent fall of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan and evacuation of the historical Armenians in the region was a direct result of Russia no longer challenging for the safety of their religious allies. Russia always took to protecting their Armenian allies, who were under the protection of Russia for generations, and maintained a status quo in the region since 1991. This failure to shield them from religious and ethnic conflict near Russia’s borders in 2023 may be a policy that those living in Russia would have a difficult time supporting.

While the lines in Ukraine seems to have solidified for the time being, the end result of the depletion of Russian forces and influence in regions that once bordered the Soviet Union is significant. Russia suffered greatly from extremist elements of their own after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the two wars in Chechnya causing great harm and political chaos for Russians in the not too distant past. The Beslan School Massacre and terror attack in the Moscow Theater Siege were some of the most horrific acts of violence against Russian citizens since the Second World War. Much of the issues on Russia’s southern border regions was the motivation for sending in Russian Armed Forces in a multi year operation against ISIS in Syria, ending in a change in operational culture and ethics by Russian soldiers themselves being witness to the brutality of that war. This exposure to excessive violence may have resulted in a mindset that ended with atrocities being committed under the Russian flag in Ukraine.

Recent events in the Middle East will play greatly into the view Russians will have of their own Government in the near future. While Russia produced some of the most advanced technologies and weapons in human history, the purchase of low technology drones from Iran to be used as terror weapons in Ukraine is a strategy that would not be recognizable by their grandparents who liberated many Concentration Camps and won what they call in Russian, The Great Patriotic War. Much of the public support Russia receives for its military in Ukraine comes from the past honours it achieved against liberating Eastern Europe from the Nazis. This historical tradition is one of the main narratives Russia uses as a motivation for the war in Ukraine. Tying themselves to allies that would cause chaos in their southern regions and that have a major role in the current death and kidnapping of Russian nationals is not what past generations would have accepted as a norm for Russia.

While Russia had assumed an assertive, but privately neutral position with all the major powers in the Middle East, it is difficult to see why they would decide to link themselves to narratives that have caused chaos in the past within their own borders and lead to the death of Russians themselves. Russia is still a significant player in their own region and those adjacent, and any actions that pull them towards civilian deaths caused by interests far from their own is something most Russians will remember for generations. These crucial policy decisions can unravel stability very quickly, usually not to the benefit of innocent people. Such events are not unknown to those who grew up in Russia or the former Soviet Union, and can easily become today’s reality.

Undoubtedly, Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was a miscalculation. Nevertheless, many international observers were shocked when Russian tanks started to roll across the border despite mounting evidence that Putin would go through with it. Ostracizing his country from the Western liberal economies was incomprehensible to most. At the same time, it is all too easy to denounce his exploits as the work of a revisionist madman. Yes, Ukraine was once a part of the Soviet Union, and Putin certainly disdains NATO expansion, but there is an ideology underlying his seemingly erratic behavior. This year, the Russian Federation officially adopted Eurasianism as its foreign policy concept. A peculiar fusion of Russian imperialism and socialism, this socio-political dogma looks set to guide Russia’s role in the world for the remainder of Putin’s tenure. But what exactly is Eurasianism, and what geographical region even constitutes Eurasia?

In 1881, poet Fyodor Dostoevsky remarked of the Russians, “In Europe we were Tatars, whereas in Asia we, too, are Europeans.” After a series of political setbacks in Europe during the late 19th century, the Russian elite started to embrace the geographical and cultural isolation that the Western powers long looked down upon. Turning inwards and to the East for inspiration, many concluded that Russia is neither European nor Asiatic but rather a unique conglomeration of the two. This shift in mentality marked a departure from the Westernization process initiated by Peter the Great and laid the foundation of Eurasianism.

In its earliest form, the ideology emerged as an alternative to Bolshevism, developed in exile by White Russian émigrés who fled the 1917 October Revolution. However, the philosophy gained little traction, and it was not until the fall of the Soviet Union that it resurfaced. That collapse, which Putin called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” left an ideological void in Russia for the first time in its history. “Each stage had its own ideology,” said the recently reelected President Boris Yeltsin in 1996, but now, he continued, “We have none.” Unquestionably, this period of political disorientation played a pivotal role in Putin’s psychological development, who remained determined to restore meaning to the Russian government and the place it once held in the world.

The 2023 foreign policy concept designates Russia as a “Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power.” In the Kremlin’s eyes, Eurasia includes, at a minimum, all the former territories of the Soviet Union. By virtue of geography and historical destiny, Russia sees itself as the region’s predominant power, asserting its rightful sphere of influence. Moreover, the concept characterizes Russia as a “country-civilization” with unique values, morals, and historical mission. Consequently, the country cannot be evaluated or understood through the Western lens of liberal democracy. According to the document, this mission is to maintain the global balance of power and foster a multipolar international system. In practice, this aspiration reflects the long-held Eurasianist goal of positioning Russia as an alternative center of power, distinct from the West and Asia. Reminiscent of the USSR’s lost international prominence, Putin envisions his country as the future military-political nucleus of the non-Western world. As expected, this vision and so-called historical mission are inseparable from his desire to erode America’s global influence.

Thus, it probably comes with little surprise that today’s Eurasianists are vehemently anti-Western, particularly against the U.S. and its associated values. America is portrayed as the archetypal nemesis, imposing its democratic norms and way of life on the world. In contrast, Eurasianists are fiercely traditional and religious, at least in principle, maintaining a quasi-spiritual outlook. They perceive a West suffering from intellectual and societal decay, forsaking its Christian values. Following decades of suppression under the Soviets, the Russian Orthodox Church has regained its influential role in society and consistently supported Putin’s imperialist inclinations. Like the Moscow Patriarchate, autocratic traditions run deep in Russian history, with Putin the latest in a long line of absolutists. Eurasianists contend that democracy is dangerous, individualistic, hedonistic, and antithetical to the country’s political foundations.

In retrospect, Putin’s speech at the 2007 Munich Security Conference made it perfectly clear that his patience with the West and its rules-based order was starting to run thin. Unfortunately, European and American leaders dismissed it as a one-off tirade, believing the Russian threat died with the Soviet Union never to rise again. Nearly 17 years later, U.S.-Russian relations are as strained as they were at any point during the Cold War.

While a complete rapprochement between Moscow and the West appears exceptionally elusive, Eurasianism offers a glimpse of how future Russian foreign policy might unfold. To be sure, Putin remains a pragmatic opportunist subservient to no ideology. However, given the rupture between his country and the West, Eurasianism provides a rationale for his diplomatic reorientation to Southeast Asia. This shift is already evident, with China and India purchasing oil at discount rates while supplying goods targeted by Western sanctions to Russia. In the first seven months of 2023, Beijing’s total trade with Moscow increased 36% from a year before. Beyond expanding economic ties, Putin’s activities abroad signal a clear intent to challenge the existing order, supposedly in an attempt to fulfill its historic mission as the facilitator of global multipolarity. Whether it is pushing for the rapid expansion of BRICS or courting dictators in the Middle East, the essence of this guiding doctrine appears centered on diminishing American influence at every available opportunity. Serving as the bridge between Asia and Europe, the successful realization of Eurasianist thought in Russia hinges on its dominance of the near abroad, a harsh lesson that the Ukrainian people are tragically experiencing. The prospects of Putin restoring Russia’s place in the world are doubtful, but one thing is certain: his Eurasianist principles ensure that his country will not go down without a fight.

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