Obwohl noch Krieg herrscht, sei es richtig, jetzt schon den Wiederaufbau der Ukraine zu planen, sagt der Politikwissenschaftler Jörn Grävingholt im Kontext der internationale Expertenkonferenz über den Wiederaufbau der Ukraine am 25.10.2022 in Berlin.
Wladimir Putin eskalierte im September 2022 den russischen Krieg gegen die Ukraine. Er kündigte eine Teilmobilisierung an und wiederholte seine Drohung mit dem Einsatz von Nuklearwaffen. Es war aber vor allem die proklamierte Annexion der ukrainischen Gebiete Luhansk, Donezk, Saporischschja und Cherson, mit der er einen Schlussstrich unter die Friedensbemühungen seit dem 24. Februar 2022 zog. Wolodymyr Selenskyj hatte Putin seit seiner Wahl 2019 und auch in den ersten Wochen nach dem erneuten russischen Überfall immer wieder zu einem Gipfeltreffen aufgefordert. Am 4. Oktober 2022 erteilte er in Reaktion auf die Schritte der russischen Seite direkten Gesprächen per Dekret eine Absage. Die ukrainisch-russischen Verhandlungen seit dem Beginn der russischen Aggression 2014 sowie seit dem 24. Februar 2022 zeigen, wie sehr diese vom Kriegsverlauf, aber auch vom politischen Kontext abhängen.
Among the many significant geopolitical consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been the reinvigoration of the Middle Corridor, both as a regional economic zone comprising Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey but also as an increasingly attractive alternative route between Europe and China. Russia’s war has disrupted overland connectivity via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, also known as Northern Corridor, which passes through – now heavily sanctioned – Russian and Belarusian territory. While the Middle Corridor will not be able to fully replace the Northern Corridor, regional integration along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is likely to increase its potential at the expense of Russia in the long-term. Ankara’s close cultural ties with the Central Asian republics combined with the latter’s willingness to diversify their foreign relations away from Moscow and Beijing provide Turkey with greater leverage in the region. The EU and Turkey share a common interest in enhancing Eurasian connectivity for several reasons: to promote peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, to enhance commercial access to Central Asia, to increase the resilience of European supply chains, and to diversify European energy supplies. Strengthening Eurasian connectivity would also work to balance Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in Central Asia.
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Five years after its inception, the Comprehensive Planning and Performance Assessment System (CPAS) has evolved from a pilot project into a system for bringing together planning and performance assessment in iterative cycles in all United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations. CPAS supports multiple Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+) priorities, including strategic and operational integration, and performance and accountability of peacekeepers. CPAS is also at the forefront of UN Peacekeeping’s embrace of technology and the integration of system-wide data for improved mandate delivery.
CPAS has emerged as one of the flagship vehicles through which the UN can better demonstrate the impact of its peacekeeping missions and improve their performance. The system allows missions to set out a framework that details how their operations influence stakeholders and processes in the country and helps missions assess, based on data, whether and how they make progress against mandated priorities. At present, peacekeeping operations have used CPAS to conduct thirty performance assessments since 2018, which have generated over 300 recommendations aimed at improving their operations and refining their planning.
In this context, IPI and the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the UN, in partnership with the UN Department of Peace Operations, cohosted a policy forum assessing the rollout, implementation, and impact to date of CPAS in UN peacekeeping on October 27th.
Panelists highlighted CPAS’s progress and challenges as a tool for mission-wide impact assessment, strategic planning, and integration. Daniel Forti, Research Fellow at IPI’s Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, described CPAS as an “ambitious, imperfect, and worthwhile experiment for UN peacekeeping.” Interventions also reflected on CPAS’s trajectory over the coming months and offer recommendations to sustain the system’s future, particularly in considering the current geopolitical context of UN peacekeeping.
The policy forum launched an IPI publication on UN peacekeeping and CPAS, written by Daniel Forti. This event and publication are part of IPI’s broader workstream on A4P+, funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands. DPO’s Division for Performance, Evaluation and Training also shared its own internal lessons-learned study on CPAS at the event.
Welcome and Opening Remarks:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Djeyhoun Ostowar, Deputy Head of Political Section, Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the UN
David Haeri, Director of the Division of Policy, Evaluation and Training, UN Department of Peace Operations
Speakers:
Daniel Forti, Research Fellow, Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Major General Patrick Gauchat, Head of Mission and Chief of Staff, UN Truce Supervision Organization (via VTC)
Souleymane Thioune, Chief of Staff, UN Multidimensional Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (via VTC)
Kym Taylor, Chief of the Evaluations Team, Division of Policy, Evaluation and Training, UN Department of Peace Operations
Closing Remarks:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute