SWP

Russia apparently aims to be capable of attacking targets in the Baltic Sea region from Lake Ladoga, which is located north of Saint Petersburg and only 40 kilometres from the Finnish border. Since 2023, Russia has been evaluating the deployment of corvettes equipped with cruise missiles there. Such warships have already carried out strikes deep into Syria and Ukraine. Their recent deployments to Lake Ladoga could complicate the defence of NATO’s north-eastern allies. Simulated launches were reportedly conducted for the first time in autumn 2024. However, NATO still lacks information about Lake Ladoga. Developments there underscore the need for con­ventional long-range fire capabilities into Russia’s strategic depth to deter Moscow effectively.

Peter Lintl zu den Plänen des israelischen Sicherheitskabinetts, die Stadt Gaza zu besetzen

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe – one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put pressure on the European allies including Ukraine to assume greater responsibility for their security is a second criti­cal inflection point. In this rapidly evolving security landscape, Europe faces the dual challenge of ensuring the long-term security of Ukraine, the Baltic states and the Black Sea region and strengthening the European Union’s defence and military capa­bil­ities. Turkey has a strategically significant, albeit politically contentious role to play within both contexts. What kind of an alignment might there be between the EU and Turkey, given that Ankara is simultaneously a partner, competitor, rival and even threat to EU member states? For its part, the European Union should adopt a gradual, pragmatic and interest driven approach to Turkey’s integration into the changing European security architecture. It should aim to reinforce the role of Europe – in­clud­ing Turkey – as a strategic and capable security actor while making clear that enhanced defence cooperation with Ankara and Turkey’s stalled EU accession process are two separate issues.

Strengthening the Indo-German developmental agenda through AI

Ostentatious humiliation may bring Europe some breathing space in the short term. But that will be worthles unless we effectively and jointly reduce dependency on the US.

Der Nahost-Experte Peter Lintl fordert angesichts des von der Hamas veröffentlichen Videos einen Geisel-Deal. Europa müsse aber auch auf die israelische Regierung Druck ausüben. Lintl sieht ein Mosaik an Möglichkeiten.

Turkey’s geopolitically motivated industrial and supply chain policy implies close ties to Germany as well as a security and economic policy orientation towards the EU. Ankara wants to bring production and sales into line with EU standards and establish a green high-tech and services economy. However, its decarbonisation measures remain inadequate. Turkish stakeholders see disruptions to global supply chains as creating the opportunity to relocate European production chains to Turkey (nearshoring). The government, the private sector and business organisations are all working to expand sustainable energy supplies. Turkey’s authoritarian domestic policy – namely, the dismantling of democracy, repression and disregard for the rule of law – makes it extremely difficult to deepen bilateral cooperation. Despite close economic ties, there are normative differences between Germany and Turkey and a consistent strategy to overcome them is lacking. Rather, the Turkish government is focused on using industrial policy to compensate for shortcomings in the rule of law. Amid the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, Turkey is performing a delicate balancing act: it is maintaining its ties to the West while at the same time expanding its technology partnership with China and energy cooperation with Russia. German policy towards Turkey requires a strategic rethink. It should endeavour to promote economic stability, strengthen Turkey’s security policy integration into Europe and counteract Ankara’s strategic rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing. Going forward, cooperation should be made conditional on democracy, the rule of law and human rights.

Funktioniert Trumps Wirtschaftspolitik etwa? Kurz sah es so aus, als ob er ökonomische Regeln außer Kraft setzen könnte. Doch mittlerweile zeigen sich ernste Probleme.

US-Haltung zu Israel

Die Zahl indischer Migrant:innen in Deutschland ist in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen. Sie helfen hierzulande besonders den Fachkräftemangel in MINT-Berufen zu lindern. Indien ist das wichtigste Herkunftsland für Arbeits- und Bildungs­migration. Das Profil der Migrant:innen wandelt sich derzeit. Es kommen weniger Expert:innen mit der Blauen Karte EU, dem wichtigsten Aufenthaltstitel für hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte, und mehr Studierende, Auszubildende und beruflich qualifizierte Personen zur Jobsuche oder Anerkennung von Qualifikationen. Das 2022 zwischen Berlin und Neu-Delhi geschlossene Migrations- und Mobilitätspartnerschaftsabkommen (MMPA) ergänzt den deutschen Rechtsrahmen zur Fachkräftegewinnung nicht durch zusätzliche Zugangswege. Doch es verbessert die praktische Umsetzung selbstorganisierter Migration aus Indien, etwa durch beschleunigte Visaverfahren. Die Gemeinsame MMPA-Arbeitsgruppe bietet die Möglichkeit, im Dialog mit der indischen Regierung die Potentiale der zunehmenden Migration zu nutzen, aber auch die daraus erwachsenden Herausforde­rungen zu meistern, etwa die unzureichende Regulierung privater Vermittlungsagenturen. Das Beispiel Indien zeigt, dass Deutschland über seine Außenstrukturen noch viel stärker im Herkunftsland ansetzen muss, um – mit Hilfe der migrationsbezogenen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit – neue Konzepte zur fairen und erfolgreichen Fachkräftegewinnung für Deutschland zu erarbeiten. Die Migrationskooperation mit Indien ist ein verbindendes Element in den wichtiger werdenden deutsch-indischen Beziehungen. Themen bilateraler Kooperation wie Digitalisierung, künstliche Intelligenz und Klimaschutz sollten systematisch mit Wissensaustausch und der Mobilität von Fachkräften in der jeweiligen Branche verbunden werden.