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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Conflict in Abyei Could Reignite South Sudan’s Civil War

Foreign Policy - Wed, 06/06/2018 - 12:54
If the U.N. withdraws peacekeepers from a long-contested oil-rich enclave, it's likely to spark further fighting in an already unstable region.

Reclaiming Global Leadership

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 06/06/2018 - 06:00
Although American leaders should always put American interests first, that does not mean that we have to build walls, close off markets, or isolate the United States by acting in ways that alienate our allies.

North Korea's Illegal Weapons Trade

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 06/06/2018 - 06:00
For decades, North Korea has proliferated weapons, including conventional arms, ballistic missiles, and chemical agents, to states such as Iran and Syria.

Is Guatemala’s Fight Against Corruption Under Threat?

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 06/06/2018 - 06:00
The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala faces baseless claims of Russian collusion, threatening the progress Gutemala has made in its war on corruption.

Why Spain’s Top Populist Is a Centrist

Foreign Policy - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 23:44
Albert Rivera is tearing down his country’s establishment from the middle. Just don't call him Spain's Emmanuel Macron.

It’s Time for a Coup in Venezuela

Foreign Policy - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 23:22
Only nationalists in the military can restore a legitimate constitutional democracy.

Macron Has Changed France’s Political DNA

Foreign Policy - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 23:06
One year after his election, it's clear Emmanuel Macron isn't just a president — he's a liberal man of providence.

L'arbitraire au quotidien

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 19:11
La loi américaine garantit le droit de grève. Mais, de fait, la faculté d'organiser des syndicats et de négocier des conventions collectives est déniée à un nombre considérable de salariés, dans le secteur public comme dans le privé. Telle est la conclusion essentielle du dernier rapport annuel sur les (...) / , , - 1999/11

Les Guignols ou la comédie des princes

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 17:10
En France, la pesante connivence qui soude certains journalistes aux hommes politiques les plus respectueux de l'ordre établi a été longtemps dissimulée par une véritable loi du silence. Mais, depuis trois ans, une émission de télévision presque quotidienne fait de l'étalage de cette complicité la (...) / , , , - 1995/08

Le grand bazar aux canons dans le tiers-monde

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 15:08
Malgré ses professions de foi sur l'austérité et la rigueur, « le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) s'est montré réticent à demander la diminution des dépenses militaires, même quand il recommandait des coupes claires dans les dépenses gouvernementales. Le secteur militaire était tenu à l'écart des (...) / , , - 1988/03

Bangladeshi Professor: “There will be no Hindus in Bangladesh within 3 decades”

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 05/06/2018 - 15:00

According to research conducted by Professor Abdul Barakat of Dhaka University, who recently published a book titled “The Political Economy of Reforming Agriculture: Land Water Bodies in Bangladesh,” there will be no Hindus left within Bangladesh within 30 years. He told the Dhaka Tribune: “The rate of the exodus over the past 49 years points to that direction.” From 1964 to 2013, around 11.3 million Hindus were compelled to flee Bangladesh due to religious persecution.

Before the Liberation War, the daily rate of migration was 705 while it was 512 during 1971-1981 and 438 during 1981-1991, the report noted. However, it added that the number increased to 767 persons each day during 1991-2001 while around 774 persons left the country during 2001-2012.

Barakat’s study found that most of the Hindus fled Bangladesh during the Pakistani occupation of the country. According to Shipan Kumer Basu, the President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, “Pakistan’s feudal and military rulers were born anti Bengali language and anti-Bengali. In any way, if the vast majority of Hindus are displaced, it would be easy to rule by dividing the non-communal Bengali nation. From this point of view, the Pakistani military issued the Enemy Property Act in 1965, using the Pakistan-India war as an excuse.”

“Following that, 2.6 million acres of the original ownership of the Hindu community has been occupied or evicted,” Basu added. “Of the 2.6 million acres, about 82 percent is agricultural land, 29 percent is homestead, 4 percent is gardens, 3 percent are waterfalls, 1 percent are ponds and 19 percent of other lands were occupied. Abul Barakat mentioned in his study that the financial loss of the land and water and transferable assets under the Arms Vested Property Act amounted to Tk 650 million.”

Even though Barakat’s study found that most of the Hindus fled Bangladesh during the Pakistani occupation of the country, Dhaka University Professor Ajoy Roy told the Dhaka Tribune that due to the Vested Property Act, which led to the present government taking over the Hindu properties that the Pakistani regime seized as enemy property, 60% of the Hindus were left landless and this is one of the reasons that prompted their mass migration from the country.

Basu noted that aside from the Vested Property Law, there are also cases of Hindus falling victim to false accusations by the legal authorities in Bangladesh so that the authorities can seize their land with greater ease: “Due to a land dispute, Hindu senior lawyer Samar Chowdhury was falsely accused of crimes. The police attempted to portray him as a drug and arms dealer but in reality, he was framed. We demand that the authorities will release him as soon as possible without any conditions. Otherwise, ordinary people will lose their trust in you.”

Bangladeshi writer Sushanto Das Gupta added that under the Awami League government, the very lives of Hindus are also threatened as there are numerous cases of Hindus getting murdered, raped and physically assaulted: “Youth League President Ataur Rahman Selim threatened to murder a number of Hindu families in Habiganj’s Sunaru village. The only purpose is to grab our land without us being in the area. He is threatening us in so many ways, so that we will leave the area and go to India. If we do not leave this country, we will be forced to become Muslim. If we do not comply, then we will be burned in the fire.” According to Basu, this horrible reality is the fate of many Hindus such as a poor egg trader from the village of Dahor Chaluduri, who was critically injured after being attacked with a number of sharp objects merely so that his land could be seized.

The post Bangladeshi Professor: “There will be no Hindus in Bangladesh within 3 decades” appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Don’t Close the Door on Chinese Scientists Like Me

Foreign Policy - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 21:26
New visa limitations for Chinese students only aid Beijing’s technocratic ambitions.

Trump Taps Bannon Ally for Top Broadcasting Job

Foreign Policy - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 20:59
Some in Washington worry he will turn the agency into a mouthpiece for Trump, but others say the threat is overblown.

Qatar Won the Saudi Blockade

Foreign Policy - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 20:48
A Saudi-led coalition wanted to permanently ostracize its rival. One year later, Qatar has more influence in the West than ever.

C.E.C.A. : vente du charbon de la Ruhr, coordination des politiques énergétiques des Six

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 18:57
Le mois de mars a été relativement chargé pour la C.E.C.A., bien qu'aucune décision spectaculaire n'y ait été prise. Mais les activités de commissions ou de groupes techniques ont été suffisamment soutenues pour que sur plusieurs problèmes importants on voie enfin poindre une solution. Avant d'aborder (...) / - 1960/04

U.S. Lawmakers Target Chinese Interference in New Bill

Foreign Policy - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 18:13
Bipartisan legislation would require an unclassified report on Chinese political influence operations in the United States.

The Tempestuousness of U.S. Foreign Policy Blows in a New Order

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 15:06

Illustration by Tim O’Brien for TIME

The U.S.’ current tempestuous, or stormy, reversals of several recent agreements bode quite ill for its role as the major stakeholder in the current international system. While an argument can be made that these moves are part of a high-risk, possible high-return negotiating strategy, it’s still an unproven strategy at best, with China as the primary opponent in many of the scenarios.

Storm

Recently, the U.S. has indicated a possible willingness to reschedule its historic summit meeting with the DPRK, originally slated for June 12th in Singapore, after abruptly cancelling it. Actions by both sides have been blamed for the cancellation, ranging from the DPRK’s “unfriendly” tone towards senior U.S. officials, to alleged Chinese influence on the DPRK’s negotiating posture, to the continued U.S.-ROK military exercises (Max Thunder), to the conflation (deliberate or otherwise) of the 2003 and 2011 “Libya models” and their applicability to the current DPRK situation.

With some haling the DPRK’s apparent willingness to still meet with the U.S. at a later date as a victory, it’s a Pyrrhic victory at best, at least in the short-term. This is because the U.S. cancellation of the summit plays into two narratives, one bad and the other much worse. The first situates the DPRK summit cancellation within the context of the U.S.’s previous withdrawals from agreements addressing longer-term issues, such as trade (TPP) and the environment (The Paris Agreement). The second places it in the arc of security issues which could have been addressed in the short-term, but for U.S. capriciousness and schizophrenia. The U.S. violation of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is the prime example in this line of argument.

Hot Air

The U.S.-DPRK summit had (has?) the potential to lead to a possible renewed Six-Party Talks format, which would address underlying Chinese security interests as well, as the Korean Peninsula is but one of several theaters of increasing great power competition between the U.S. and China currently. Related to this is the U.S. “disinvitation” to China to participate in the biennial RIMPAC exercises, after the original invitation was issued. While Chinese militarization of South China Sea islands was cited, the fact remains that more, not less mil-mil cooperation between the U.S. and China is sorely needed.

The U.S. is in a new (really old) game with China as its revisionist behavior has been cited in the U.S.’ latest National Security Strategy. As a consequence, the U.S. is a lot less hesitant to conflate trade issues with security ones as well. After tariffs, countertariffs, and various other trade actions were announced between the U.S. and China earlier in the year, seeming progress in trade relations was made recently, with ZTE being an example. However, inexplicably, the U.S. earlier this very week announced a list of Chinese items totalling $50 billion in U.S. imports to be subjected to 25% tariffs, with the list to be finalized by June 15th.

As has been noted elsewhere, U.S.-China trade is the primary ballast keeping U.S.-China security competition from truly spiralling out of control. Lastly, this apparent loss of face suffered by the ROK and China in negotiating with the U.S. to solve the DPRK and U.S.-China trade dispute issues, respectively, is not something that’s going to go unnoticed by the global community at large.

Blowback

U.S. recalcitrance on trade issues was, in part, a factor in the recent summit meeting between China, Japan, and the ROK to resolve outstanding trade and economic issues. U.S. tariffs, threatened against its own allies (Japan and ROK), whom it’s looking toward to help contain an adversary (China) through its Indo-Pacific Strategy, whom, in turn, it’s ostensibly looking toward to help it contain yet another adversary (DPRK) is a strategy quite worthy of the most scathing, unrelenting derision. This doesn’t even factor in initial U.S. efforts to also recruit Russia (yet another sanctionee) to help with the DPRK, as well as recent U.S. tarifffs against the EU, Canada, and Mexico.

U.S. frenetic uncertainty is going to have further consequences in the long-term as it finds itself shut out of various diplomatic venues convened to address yet more pressing security issues. Partners and allies aren’t going to fall on their swords and subordinate their own respective national interests to U.S. “resolve” forever.

Whether it’s the Astana talks regarding the Syrian peace process, or the Minsk Protocols (I and II) set to resolve the Ukraine Crisis, U.S. participation is going to have to rise above arming this faction or another, brush off some suits, and get back in the diplomacy game, double-quick. Although it’s not currently sexy, after the Iraq War, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Ukraine Crisis is actually the third and final straw which broke the unipolar camel’s back. If the U.S. is going to consistently explain any kind of strategy at all at fora like this week’s IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, also in Singapore, it’s going to have to let the stormy winds die down for a bit.

The post The Tempestuousness of U.S. Foreign Policy Blows in a New Order appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Security Brief: North Korea Summit Back On; End of the Korean War?

Foreign Policy - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 14:57
American and North Korean diplomats scramble to make arrangements for June 12 summit.

J-2 : numéro d’été 2018 de Politique étrangère

Politique étrangère (IFRI) - Mon, 04/06/2018 - 10:38

Le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018) sort mercredi !

Au programme, un dossier sur la cybersécurité, un contrechamps sur l’Inde, et de nombreux articles d’actualité : l’UE et la lutte contre le terrorisme, les nouvelles options nucléaires des États-Unis, l’énergie comme nouvel enjeu stratégique chinois, la piraterie dans le golfe de Guinée… Découvrez le teaser de notre prochain numéro !

 

 

Un accord international n'est pas pour demain

Le Monde Diplomatique - Sun, 03/06/2018 - 18:48
Les métaux gris ne cessent de causer des soucis aux producteurs. Leur marché n'est pas équilibré, la production dépasse périodiquement la consommation, ce qui provoque des fluctuations de prix. Des prises de contact intergouvernementales se sont succédé depuis quelque temps : une conférence a été (...) / , , - 1960/04

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