Foreign Policy Blogs

Last August, North Korea launched what is believed to be a Hwasong-12 military grade ballistic missile towards Japan. This aggressive act towards the US ally is thought to be the latest move in the tit for tat between North Korea and the United States. There is the belief that North Korea is close to being able to place nuclear weapons on its ballistic missile systems, and has already demonstrated that it is capable of reaching targets well beyond its own borders.

Questions come with how the region wishes to progress in the future. In addition, the strategy to achieve this progression and the often unmentioned innocents living in North Korea that are subject to the fate given to them by the response of the two biggest egos in the metaphorical room.

Since the end of the Korean War in the 1950s there has been a cease-fire, but no actual peace agreement was achieved for the last few generations. This allowed North Korea and its ruling family to live and thrive by means of appeasement diplomacy. North Korea’s neighbours had to either walk softly around a large military force run by one individual, or have passively supported the regime so that it would not have to deal with the consequences of millions of North Koreans suddenly ending up with no control or leadership.

Ignoring a problem did not reduce its risk, and while North Korea was being appeased diplomatically, it slowly created its own nuclear weapons program, including semi-sophisticated missile systems to protect its ruling elite.

The risks posed by North Korea is reaching a critical stage where any leverage by the US or its allies have been spent without much definitive progress over the years trying to reduce a weapons program that will now certainly come into existence.

It is not expected that the US or its allies will want to greatly change the status quo, and there is next to no mention of the rights of those living in North Korea as regime change is mostly off the table. In this scenario, neighbours can only hope that North Korea decides they are content keeping the region hostage without a nuclear or conventional weapons strike, and hope that order does not beget chaos within North Korea with a nuclear weapons program ready to launch.

A stronger position would be to take the time to develop a truly effective Anti-Ballistic Missile system, similar to one that forms a defensive ring around Moscow, and hope that shooting down threats diffuses the calls for escalating a situation into a larger conflict. ABM diplomacy would allow US allies to regain a bit of their leverage, but still would maintain a horrific scenario where a nuclear armed and capable North Korea could set off a conflict at the whims of their leader, at the time and place of his choosing.

The end result of years of passive diplomacy over North Korea’s future nuclear threats is coming to a climax, and there are fewer and less viable options as North Korean technology approaches the reality of their spoken threats. With more small nations choosing ballistic missile diplomacy as a means to an end, the ABM diplomacy route may be the best/worst option in maintaining a status quo in diplomacy that has led to the current crisis, and will likely lead to many others.

The post The Need for Anti-Ballistic Missile Diplomacy appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Some ethnic organizations in multicultural Western societies frequently neglect to perform their bridging role between old comers and new comers. These organizations’ missions are often abused to shine the private glory of old comer board members’ social prestige, misrepresenting the political interests of new comer immigrants.

The ramming of identity-politics-based extremism disparately sprouting around the globe has reawakened the totalitarian madness of unrefined mass politics under which religiously or racially shared violent norms dangerously surface into repulsive ‘praxis’. The imminent threats of such hyper-rationalized political action lie in the fact that it could now potentially jeopardize the socially embedded concept of ‘pluralistic equality’ being an essential premise for securing the ‘level playing field’.

In many multicultural Western societies, the evaporation of pluralistic equality might not only imply the breakdown of democratic solidarity but also play an overture for the collapse of the Republican notion of the public sphere where privileged yet responsible civism is supposed to guard the constitution values through inter subjective reasoning.

Why is the order of ‘worldliness’ (borrowing Hannah Arendt’s term) falling? Why do citizens of secular republics distrust the freedom-unleashing works of glorious ‘craftsmen’ and rather violently claim for the quasi-totalitarian group values of a single religion or race instead of those of their cosmopolitan public sphere? In the meantime, why have glorious craftsmen failed to stop the rise of extremism?

Both White supremacists and Islamic extremists have in common that they renounce the crafted secular glories of the public sphere and ignore the social constructive nature of the public sphere. Especially, they reject critical race theories’ assumptions under the intersectionality theory that citizens have multiple social identities that are not mutually exclusive.

What has caused the extremist groups to turn skeptical towards such theoretical assumptions?

One does not dare question the contributions that Hannah Arendt’s political theories and interdisciplinary critical race theory have made to the progress of humanity since the end of the world wars but one must cautiously point out that the theories have some limits in redressing the reality of the 21st century multicultural public sphere.

First, they undermine the motivating role of secular self-realization and self-discipline that guide individuals, especially the masses, towards righteous praxis. Arendt, for example, depreciates the value of French bonheur in her book, The Human Condition, because she considers it a “modern enchantment with ‘small things’” that is “an extraordinary and infectious charm that a whole people may adopt as their way of life, without for that reason changing its essentially private character.” In other words, she sees French bonheur as a mass hyponastic propaganda disseminated by a private organization that dissipates citizens’ political willingness to perform praxis in the public sphere.

Yet, in 21st century reality, it is the unnatural rhythmic coolness of gangster hip-hop and the (George) Bataillean way of squandering social excess that have overwhelmingly brainwashed our young generations’ way of life, not the ‘small things’ emphasis of French bonheur. Such excessively liberally expressed ‘crafts’ are often too existentialist in that they are vaingloriously stimulating, anesthetizing our young generations’ sensitivity in finding intrinsically self-realizing or self-disciplining meanings out of the crafts. One does not mean to say that these crafts have no socially contributing values but the fabricated heroism (cultural elitism) within the crafts entices young generations to falsely interpret the intended ‘unnatural rhythms’ and instead to ironically naturalize the rhythms limitedly for their own existentialist purposes. In so doing, young generations lose their passion to remold the rhythms into a unique one and also to present the remolded rhythm representing their true individuality to the public.

Considering these dysfunctions, today’s ‘craftsmen’ should urgently innovate alternative ways of accommodating secular self-realization and self-discipline other than the above types of ‘crafts’.

The development of happiness, or subjective well-being, studies could shed some light on this future challenge when it is truly understood as a praxis-arousing craft that pro-activates individuals’ community-consciousness as well as self-consciousness.

Second, the theories pay little attention to intra-ethnic power relations in Western multicultural societies. For example, the scholarly frame of critical race theory is mostly in the mainstream institutions vs minority individual context that limits the scope of research into studying how institutionalized racism oppresses minority individuals. Such an approach rarely recognizes the fact that the rise of multicultural elites and the upper middle class in Western societies since the 1980s has deepened intra-ethnic inequality especially between old comer and new comer immigrants. Indeed, the inequality is increasingly observable as a significant portion of minority citizens in multicultural Western societies have cast their votes to extreme rightist candidates in the past few years.

The problem of intra-ethnic asymmetry of information between old comer and new comer immigrants is as important to note as that within mainstream society. The less the degree of the asymmetry of information between old comer and new comer immigrants, the higher the likelihood that new comer immigrants integrate into American society. And the higher the likelihood of such integration, the less the likelihood that conflicts between working class citizens and new comer immigrants arise.

Similar to the way civic organizations as social capitals can ameliorate the problem within mainstream society, ethnic civic organizations as intermediating agencies (e.g. Korean American Associations) can narrow down the aforementioned inequality gap. Unfortunately, in reality, many such organizations neglect to perform their bridging role between old comers and new comers. These organizations’ missions are often abused to shine the private glory of old comer board members’ social prestige, misrepresenting the political interests of new comer immigrants.

Nevertheless, many social clubs and trade associations of successful second-generation or old comer professionals barely pay attention to this kind of intra-ethnic affairs or to the welfare of new comer immigrants unless doing so embellishes their American ivory tower.

Often, it seems like the priorities of the organizations, supposedly the public goods of an ethnic group, are to advertise good pictures that they have taken with vote-seeking local politicians so that they can garner the public image of seating on the top of the intra-ethnic hierarchy. All these dysfunctional intra-ethnic power relations especially within ethnic groups with soaring numbers of immigrants since the 1980s make intra-ethnic institutions in multicultural Western societies nothing more than the reincarnation of the clientelist  political machines of the late 19th century America.

Social costs associated with the asymmetry of information between self-conceited old comer and misinformed new comer immigrants must be reduced. Western governments should therefore find ways to systematically evaluate how ethnic civic organizations substantially play their bridging role between old comer and new comer immigrants.

The post Is Extremism the Sole Reason for the Collapsing Order of ‘Worldliness’? appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Summing up the general state of awareness in the world that we are living in, an overwhelming majority of the world seems to be either unaware of or unconcerned about the potentially catastrophic confrontation building up in the last two months in the Himalayas between India and China, the world’s two largest countries, which also happen to be the world’s second and the fourth largest economies, and, most worryingly, two nuclear armed nations that have the world’s most well-oiled defense apparatus.

The standoff, which is threatening to spiral out of control from the Chinese side, started when the one-party led Communist nation’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) started constructing a motorable road from Dokola in the Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp at Zompelri on June 16, 2017.

Bhutan, which believes the area is its territory, swiftly reacted, and in a press release issued on June 29, 2017, stated clearly that “the construction of the road inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of its agreements with China“.

The Bhutanese foreign ministry further said:

” Boundary talks are ongoing between Bhutan and China and we have written agreements of 1988 and 1998 stating that the two sides agree to maintain peace and tranquillity in their border areas pending a final settlement on the boundary question, and to maintain status quo on the boundary as before March 1959. The agreements also state that the two sides will refrain from taking unilateral action, or use of force, to change the status quo of the boundary. Bhutan hopes that the status quo in the Doklam area will be maintained as before 16 June 2017.”

At the core of the dispute is the question of where the final tri-boundary point — the point at which India, China, and Bhutan meet — lies.

China argues that the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction is at Mount Gipmochi (Gyemo Chen), much south of Batang la, the place that India and Bhutan consider as the tri-junction.  China claims 89 sq km in Doklam (along Gamochen at the border, to the river divide at Batangla and Sinchela, and down to the Amo Chhu River) as its own.

But it is one of only four areas – as per Bhutan – over which China and Bhutan, who do not have diplomatic relations, have a dispute and have had 24 rounds of talks. China, however, claims much more than that and considers a total of seven areas as disputed areas.

China, it may be noted, has territorial disputes with virtually every neighbour of its. And if its conduct in the South China Sea and with Japan over Senkaku Islands is any indication, China does not really believe in giving in to other nation’s claims.

Therefore, much before the official press release by Bhutan, and just two days after the construction work by China began, on June 18, 2017, India sent around 270 troops, with weapons and two bulldozers and stopped the Chinese troops from constructing the road.

In a 15-page document released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the same day, Beijing said that “over 270 Indian soldiers, carrying weapons and driving two bulldozers advanced more than 100 meters into the Chinese territory to obstruct the road building of the Chinese side, causing tension in the area.”

It further accused India of raising the number of Indian soldiers to 400.

India’s ministry of defence, however, brushed aside the Chinese accusation of escalation and said that India has been maintaining 350-400 troops at Doklam ever since the stand-off began.

The Indian action is in accordance with the India-Bhutan Treaty of Friendship of 1949, which advocated India’s guiding role in Bhutan’s diplomatic and defense affairs.  Though the 1949 treaty was superseded by a new friendship treaty of 2007 that replaced the provision that made it mandatory for Bhutan to take India’s guidance on foreign policy.

The 2007 treaty provided broader sovereign rights to Bhutan by, for instance, not making it mandatory for Bhutan to take India’s permission in matters such as arms imports. But it did not alter much the inherent attached interests of the two nations.

Article 2 of the 2007 India-Bhutan Treaty says:

In keeping with the abiding ties of close friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and India, the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.

While sovereignty is the principal concern for Bhutan, the dispute for India beyond just the size of the territory in Doklam.

Picture Courtesy: Indian Defence Review

India is alarmed that if the Chinese do complete the motorable road in the Doklam area, it will give China an imposing access to India’s strategically vulnerable ‘chicken’s neck’ in the Siliguri Corridor, a 20km wide corridor that links India’s seven northeastern states to its mainland.

It may further be noted that Bhutan’s own administrative apparatus can get severely compromised if the Chinese inhabit Doklam as Bhutan’s communications network as it is connected through Siliguri in India.

At the moment, it is a stalemate. India is refusing to pull back its troops from the area that it says belongs to Bhutan. And China is threatening a bigger war every new day.

UPDATE:

As on August 28, 2017, India and China reached a consensus on disengagement of border personnel at the #Doklam faceoff site. A release by India’s ministry of external affairs said:

In recent weeks, India and China have maintained diplomatic communication in respect of the incident at Doklam. During these communications, we were able to express our views and convey our concerns and interests.

On this basis, expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is on-going.

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The post Doklam: China’s War Drums and the India-Bhutan Treaty appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

If tolerance and acceptance are not part of the educational system of Iraq, what kind of future does that country have?

While ISIS has been uprooted from most of Iraq, years of bitter struggles and wars have deprived an entire generation in Iraq. According to the Iraqi Institution for Development, in ISIS controlled areas, subjects such as history, geography, literature, art and music were removed from the curricula. They were replaced by Islamic law, physical fitness and jihad education. Military training, religious extremism and recruitment to the terror group was a major component of the ISIS educational system.

For example, a book used for 6-year-old children was titled “The Islamic State is Remaining and Expanding.” The illustrations in this book show children using weapons and wearing ISIS attire. An ISIS math textbook asked children the number of explosives needed to kill a Shia Muslim or an unbeliever in a suicide bombing. Furthermore, the plus sign was eliminated for ISIS claims that it references the Christian cross. ISIS deprived students of basic components to deal with the modern world.

As a result of this curriculum, many Iraqi parents opted not to send their children to school. Also the children who attended ISIS schools are lagging behind in their education and are traumatized from the entire experience of having their childhood robbed from them. There are horror stories of ISIS taking school children to watch executioners crucify and behead people. Aid workers stress that these children have nightmares to date from this experience. As a result, Iraqi children who have been liberated from the yoke of ISIS are several years behind in their studies.

However, there is a huge question mark whether the Shia Popular Mobilization Units that have contributed to liberating Iraqis from ISIS will be much better. Iranian political theorist Reza Parchizadeh noted that Nouri Al-Maliki is close to the Iranian regime: “He incites hatred against Sunnis, Jews and Westerners and has influence on the educational system. It is natural that he should try to advertise the ideological Shiite values that are close to Tehran.”

A report in Al-Monitor also stressed how the Shia Popular Mobilization Units have already made inroads on Iraqi university campuses, where it is feared by some that they could seek to export the Iranian educational model to Iraq. One example of this was provided by Iranian dissident Mohsen Behzad Karimi, who stated that the Shia-led government is indoctrinating students to support martyrdom.

Iraq expert Gilgamesh Nabeel is more concerned about the plight of minorities under the Iraqi Government’s Educational system: “There is a concentration on Shiite Islamic figures. Minorities are marginalized in Iraq’s curriculum. This left students with total ignorance of their fellow citizens.

There is nothing on the Kurds in Iraq’s Central Government curricula. There is no single trace for the history of Christianity in Iraq. Nothing can be read on Yazidis and Mandeans. There is a concentration on the Islamic era in a way marginalizing even the ancient history of Mesopotamia to just a few chapters in the first intermediate grade. Besides, the Islamic look on non-Muslims might create a gap between Muslims and non-Muslims.”

In contrast, areas under the Kurdistan Regional Government teach children to be tolerant and to respect human rights as well as minority communities. As Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani proclaimed, “The KRG has been continually working, so that the education sector will have a modern and sophisticated system that is aligned with contemporary international standards, principles and values.” Kurdistan’s Minister of Education Pshtiwan Sadiq added: “Children in the Kurdistan Region are all taught in their mother tongue, depending on their heritage and location, which is a rare phenomenon.” Every year in the Kurdish educational system, they print materials in Armenian, Arabic, Turkamani, Kurdish and also for the Yezidis.

In addition, the KRG coordinated with the Education Ministry in order to avoid extremists having influence in the educational sector. 18 Islamic extremist books are banned in Kurdistan and some versions of the Koran that teach extremism were replaced with peaceful versions of the Quran in the Kurdish school system.

Even though the Kurdistan region has less money to invest in education than the Iraqi Central Government does due to the economic crisis, thanks to the KRG’s efforts, the illiteracy rate in Iraqi Kurdistan has shrunk between the years 2004 to 2017, down from 34 percent to 15 percent. At the same time, the number of students have risen from 534,962 students to a staggering 1,738,521 students. The number of teachers rose from 21, 389 to 136,302. And, the number of schools also increased from 1,320 to 6,789 schools. There are also 278 international schools are in Kurdistan. However, generally, the education sector is something public. It is totally free. To the contrary, ISIS charged students a fortune just to go to elementary school.

According to a UNICEF study, while the Iraqi government has more money to invest in education, the Kurdish educational system is better developed. This is largely due to the efforts of Kurdish Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani, who considers having a top quality education to be his main priority for a healthy education system means a developed society and community. In other words, as the educational system has worsened in Iraq in recent years due to the rise of Islamic extremism, the educational system in Iraqi Kurdistan has vastly improved since the Kurds gained autonomy. In addition, Kurdistan’s Prime Minister has financed giving a rehabilitation education to ISIS children in prison, where they will be able to catch up on their educational gap in special schools.

Having said that, we should remember that education reflects the values of a society. Therefore, looking at the messages conveyed by the educational system teaches us a lot about the beliefs which characterize a society. If tolerance and acceptance are not part of the educational system of Iraq, what kind of future does that country have?

The post Iraq’s Lost Generation: Indoctrinated to Hate appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The medium-term outlook in Spain is under pressure from three issues. Its politicians will have to act judiciously to avoid a constitutional crisis. 

Spain’s minority PP (Partido Popular) government has stuttered since October 2016. Despite the country’s relatively buoyant economic performance this year, the government is under continued pressure from three sides: Catalan separatism, corruption allegations and the durability of its economic recovery. Significant movement in one of these areas could change the country’s political calculus, and the wider region.

Mariano Rajoy’s conservative PP administration has been in power since 2011, and has been one of Europe’s foremost adherents of austerity. After years of painful cuts, however, Spain’s economy has registered 14 consecutive quarters of growth. This year it has exceeded expectations, had its IMF forecast upgraded, and is now the Eurozone’s fastest growing economy. If this trend continues time would appear to be on Rajoy’s side, if real incomes continue to rise ahead of the next election, nominally due in 2020.

What tempers this optimism is the unemployment rate. Although the figure (currently 17.2%) has dropped from an eye-watering 26.3% in 2013, including a steep fall this year, the figure is still unsustainable. There is also a suspicion that the recent improvement is due to temporary – not full-time – jobs, encouraged by the PP’s labour market reforms. The Spanish economy will need many more quarters of growth to bring this figure down, even into single digits. Meanwhile, pressure from Eurozone officials in Brussels is further limiting Spain’s fiscal room for manoeuvre. After receiving a reprieve from a financial penalty last year, the government will have to – and most likely achieve – a budget deficit under 3.1% of GDP in 2017.

Rajoy’s government probably wishes it could focus all its energies on the economy. Other crises, however, present mortal threats to its survival. Corruption scandals have plagued the PP for years. Rajoy became the first serving Spanish Prime Minister to testify in court on 26 July. He denied any knowledge of corruption in the PP. Nevertheless, as leader since 2004 and government minister 1996-2003 he is precariously close to the scandal, which is alleged to date back two decades. Former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas is the most high profile political casualty so far. The charges include bribes, influence peddling and secret slush funds. Rajoy gave evidence in the so-called ‘Gürtel case’, which is linked to the Bárcenas affair. The PP minority government rely on support from Ciudadanos (Citizens), a new party founded in opposition to corruption and growing Catalan separatism. It is not inconceivable that the scandal could fell the government.

Source: Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom

The final – and potentially most serious – component of this trio of risks is an independence referendum in Catalonia. The Catalan regional parliament, led by Carles Puigdemont, of the pro-independence Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT), has called a referendum on 1 October this year. The central government in Madrid has so far refused to recognise the legitimacy of any plebiscite, stating that it would contravene the 1978 constitution. Both sides seem set on a collision course, driven by brinkmanship. Despite the chaos caused by the Brexit referendum last year, the probability that Madrid would not recognise the result, and that even if independence was declared a fledgling Catalan state would be blocked from joining the EU, opinion polls are currently very close.

Catalonia exceeds the rest of Spain’s economic performance by every measure: higher growth, lower unemployment, higher GDP per capita. Catalan nationalists have eyed an almost perfect opponent in the PP government. Posters have started to appear around Barcelona making the link between a no vote in October and the Franco dictatorship. The current situation in Catalonia is the very essence of political risk. However Madrid choses to approach the referendum, a ‘Yes’ vote – even without recognition – would cause the dominos to fall in a most unpredictable manner.

Spain has registered steady economic growth since the depths of the financial and Eurozone crises. The country has implemented a number of reforms, demonstrating a flexibility less obvious in its other neighbours in South Europe. Nevertheless, Madrid will have to weather a number of other storms if this outward stability is to be maintained.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by Robert Ledger.

The post Three Problems Facing Spain’s Government Today appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Two memories come to mind when thinking about political divisions between neighbors and relatives and the violence that permeates when both sides accept totalitarian ideas as their norm. The death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a man I was fortunate enough to hear speak in a small meeting, and a separate friend of mine from that same country that lamented factions in that society that sough political legitimacy through continued and unabated violence.

More than twelve years after the assassination of Hariri, Lebanon remains at the brink of another decade of sectarian violence while reasonable agents in Lebanese society beg all sides to remember the last few decades of violence and how it destroyed the country many times over.

Ideology in America today does not have decades of recent sectarian conflict to draw on for modern lessons, and may not be affected even if it did have those recent experiences. Ideology and intentional violence for the sake of violence often lives on the fringes, but ends with a meeting of minds or compromise in the middle. Fascism in all its forms ends with those who actually intend to build society and not continuously burn it to the ground.

The vast majority of us in the middle of the political divide are much like Ralph Fiennes’ characters in the movie Sunshine, where he plays generations from the same family with most of them succumbing to being executed or imprisoned without rights by those on the far right and then far left, just because he lived where he lived and via accusations against the political leanings of generations of his family. Fiennes shows that no matter what you do, think or say, fascists from both sides will label you and seek to dispose of you just because you exist in their world.

Societies that pull themselves to the extremes often have to ignore large swaths of reality to make the mental leap to self-abuse. The operation of actual slavery and organized death by way of rape and torture against many minorities in Iraq and Syria in an actual concentration camp style genocide is almost wholly ignored by international media. Actions done by actual Nazis are being repeated in our generation, and there is next to no response by the “Great Powers” of the world.

In addition, even victims of the genocide are blocked and almost wholly ignored by the international community as they beg to be claimed under otherwise generous refugee programs that by process ignore them as well. The cause of this came from sectarian factions in Iraq and Syria gaining a foothold into the mainstream. The lack of understanding of these issues comes with the almost complete absence of moderate voices from Iraq, and a strong and organized push to never find those voices in western media. An entire university education could be based on listening to those few people who lament violence in their countries, and the world would be better off with a real education that does not promote and legitimize political violence by any faction.

The post The Balkanization of American Society appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The lack of democracy and minority rights in Bangladesh hinder prosperity and stability within the country.

According to former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “If a country does not recognize minority rights, you will not have the kind of prosperity and stability that is possible.” The present reality in Bangladesh highlights that Clinton is correct about this. Former US Ambassador Samantha Power has argued that there is a connection between the economic situation being bad and the horrendous plight of minorities but Bangladesh shows that even if the economic situation is improving, without democracy and minority rights, the plight of the citizens living in that country will continue to be horrendous.

No one disputes that the economic situation has improved recently in Bangladesh with the World Bank calling the Bangladeshi economy stable and claiming that its growth continues to reduce poverty. In fact, some even argue that the plight of the poor in Bangladesh is said to be better than it is in India right now. However, the lack of minority rights and democracy within the country as highlighted by the sham 2014 election results, which illustrates that the country is far less stable and prosperous than it could be given this recent economic growth.

The root of Bangladesh’s ills rests with the lack of democracy. As the East Asia Forum observed in 2014, “The incumbent prime minister has always lost — until now. But now Bangladesh is entering a new phase. In a farce of an election on 5 January, Sheikh Hasina won a second consecutive term as prime minister. She laid the ground for this victory in 2011, by junking a provision added to the constitution in 1996 which had called for neutral, ‘caretaker’ governments to oversee elections. So Zia’s BNP, sitting in opposition, boycotted the poll. For the 20 million-odd voters who showed up (out of 92 million eligible), the choice was even more limited than usual: the only candidates were either in the ruling party or beholden to it. In the majority of seats, no voting took place at all. There is a big difference between two lousy candidates and just one.”

“Nor was the boycott the only problem,” they added. “Before the polling, the government had put Zia under house arrest. Ershad, who leads the third largest party, was held at an army hospital. The next-biggest party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, had been banned from taking part on the ground that its overtly Islamic charter is in breach of Bangladesh’s secular constitution. On the world stage, Sheikh Hasina has joined a short list of leaders who have been elected technically but without an electoral mandate. Like the rest, she has silenced critics in the media, captured the courts and ensured that only her supporters are entitled to a fair hearing.” Shipan Kumer Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, stressed that Sheikh Hasina has destroyed Bangladeshi democracy: “153 MP’s was selected out of 300 MP’s and they were not elected. It was just a joke within the nation.”

Alongside the suppression of Bangladeshi democracy, Sheikh Hasina’s government has been persecuting Hindus and Christians within the country. According to Basu, “After being elected in 1996, Sheikh Hasina made clear her stance regarding the minority issue that she’ll also follow her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s ideology to wipe out the minorities from Bangladesh.” He claimed that the conspiracy to wipe out the minorities from Bangladesh was initiated by Sheikh Hasina’s father during the Liberation War in 1971: “He first started to grab the lands of the minorities. A major portion of the Ramna Kali Temple’s (Hindu Temple) property were declared as government property and renamed ‘Ramna park’. Minority people were threatened and unnecessarily prosecuted. Women and girls were targeted during Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s reign.”

Under Sheikh Hasina, he stressed that the Bangladeshi leader has initiated a policy to wipe out the country’s minorities within a decade or two: “Atrocities, terror, political suppression, rape, land grabbing and destroying places of worship belonging to the minorities is increasing day by day. The Awami League activists and the leaders are doing the evil deeds with the acknowledgement of Sheikh Hasina. It has become quite intolerable especially after the so-called election in 2014. The present government has become quite reckless. You’ll find both the local print and electronic media containing news of killings, rape, land grabbing, death threats, and abductions by the law enforcement agencies as well as judicial harassment, etc. There is no democratic atmosphere at all in our country now.”

There are countless examples of this within Bangladesh. One recent case is that of Haji Ishak Miyan, who was given land to be developed by 3 Christian women. Miyan decided to take the land without paying these women for developing it. To make matters worse, he has threatened to shoot the three Christian ladies like birds with the help of the local Awami League. According to Basu, the ladies have given him a legal notice but got no response and now, they have nowhere to turn to. Also recently, a 12-year-old minority girl was raped by Eliyas Mallik and most of the murderers of Bishwajit Das were either acquitted or received reduced sentences following appeals. Das was a 26-year-old tailor who was murdered by student activists of the Awami League merely for walking by an anti-government demonstration on his way to work.

However, Basu emphasized that the opposition is not much better than the Awami League. According to him, when they controlled Bangladesh, they took revenge on the minority communities for they generally supported the Awami League even though they got nothing in return for their support: “One of the widely discussed persecutions occurred in Bagerhat district (my home district). The local BNP leaders conducted land grabbing, fish project looting, killing missions, destroyed Hindu temples and the Hindu girls and women were raped, which was led by the local MP of BNP named Silver Salem and his younger brother Salam. Mr. Salam is now the District President of BNP. So, BNP can never be the safe shelter for the minorities of Bangladesh.”

Given this reality, one might ponder, what should the minorities of Bangladesh do? Basu argues that the Bangladeshi minorities have to explore fresh options: “They should realize that both the Awami League and BNP are the same for them. Fleeing to India to save themselves is not the solution. Do they have a better life in India? The answer is no.

People accept changes when they find better opportunities. But fleeing to India, leaving their beloved motherland, is not a solution at all. They have to live as refugees of India as long as they live. The minorities will have to fight back. We must live equally and practice our rights and religious freedoms simultaneously as the majority of the nation. The ideology of communal harmony should be strong where all should live together and practice their religions side by side. We want a political party that will protect us from this dreadful situation that we are living now. We will have to choose a party that supports our cause of living in peace and harmony in our own motherland. This is the only option left for the minorities of Bangladesh.”

The post The Persecution of Christians and Hindus in Bangladesh appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

China is plagued by a growing water security crisis and its current solutions are far from sufficient. The reverberations of this crisis have already had global implications, notably encouraging the Arab Spring. Further, as the crisis worsens, national, regional, and global political and economic instability will grow.

China has an age-old imbalance. Its agricultural core is in the North whilst its water resource is in the South. As of 2014, North China holds two thirds of Chinese agriculture but only one fifth of its water.  The rise of Mao in 1952 and an interventionist political ideology has cemented this chronic structural issue in the Chinese economy.

Contemporary developments are further pressuring China’s water economy as rapid economic growth has sucked-in water. Agriculture and industry account for 85% of water usage. China has 20% of the world’s population but only 7% of its freshwater resource and a rapidly growing middle class with water-demanding lifestyles; the average hamburger takes 2400 litres to produce. In 2014, eleven out of thirty-one Chinese provinces did not meet the World Bank’s water needs criteria of 1500m3 per person; in 2015 in Beijing for example, water provisions amounted to only 100m3.

China’s artificially low pricing of water has encouraged poor water management by creating a disjuncture between actual and market water prices, promoting highly inefficient use in industry and agriculture, and persistent pollution of scarce freshwater supplies. A 2009 World Bank report stated that China was using ten times more water per unit of production than the average industrialised country, and that pollution has made the water in 19% of main rivers and 35% of reservoirs useless for agriculture and industry.

Climate change exacerbates this situation. The melt-water from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau significantly feeds the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers; the Yangtze alone supports 584 million people and serves an economic zone that constitutes 42% of GDP. According to The State Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences in China, run off into the Yangtze decreased by 13.9% during the 1990s.

China’s principal solution has been to commission the very high profile South-North Water Diversion Project, inspired by Chairman Mao. In 1952, Mao stated, “[The country’s] South has lots of water, the North has less, if it were possible, it could borrow a little”.  The core of the project is a 1200 km canal stretching from the Yangtze to Beijing.  It is a political showcase that is temporarily averting crisis by addressing the symptoms rather than the cause, but at a cost of $62 billion, it is an expensive breather that will not resolve the problem.

By facilitating massive water transportation, China is reinforcing an artificial economy. It is encouraging water-intensive industry and agriculture, and promoting a downward spiral of strengthening an insatiable demand whilst failing to combat system inefficiencies.  Long term, this project, combined with state-induced low water prices, climate change, and population and economic growth, will perpetuate economic and water scarcity in Northern China.

China has made strides to find innovative solutions to its water issues. Since April 2015, it has experimented with pioneering urban designs to solve flooding and water shortages, launching a‘sponge city’ program in 16 cities and districts to retain rain water. The Water Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, announced in 2015, set targets to improve specific polluting industries and has had some success; 50,000 offending companies have shut down or halted operations.  Nonetheless, critics have questioned the effectiveness of enforcement. Ma Jun, Director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, said many factories did not comply and local governments carried out the easier aspects of the legislation rather than tackling larger, more complex problems.  However, these are small solutions to a very major problem.  Experts predict that, if China carries on with business as usual, water supply will outstrip demand by 2030.

Water security issues will have a severe impact on domestic economic stability in the long term. In China, 45% of GDP is in regions that have a similar water resource per capita as the Middle East. China’s electricity generation is reliant on water, as it is estimated that 45% of fresh-water reliant power generation facilities are in water-stressed provinces.  Further, many water-intensive industries, such as fibres and metals, generate 51% of their output in water scarce regions. China’s global competitiveness will likely be affected as industry, agriculture, and municipal use compete internally and with each other.  Businesses should contemplate a future of water price hikes, supply disruptions, pollution, and increased regulation, and seek the opportunities presented by innovative business solutions to solve Chinese water-security issues.

As throughout history, any water-induced economic instability will have significant political implications, nationally, regionally, and, given China’s significance, globally. This has already occurred. The 2011 winter-drought in China’s Eastern wheat-growing province forced China to purchase vast volumes of wheat on international markets. This caused a doubling of global wheat prices. Quickly, a hungry Middle East and North Africa were convulsing in the Arab Spring; in Tunisia, Yemen, and Jordan, protesters waved baguettes in protest, while in Egypt, people were crying out for “bread, freedom, and social justice” (it rhymes in Arabic).

As China moves rapidly away from staple food self-sufficiency, the globalisation of China’s water-security crisis is a serious issue. Such a danger has not gone unnoticed; a report by the USA’s National Intelligence Council registered Chinese water and food shortages, predicted to occur by 2030, as a threat. The implications for the global economy if China’s economy stutters, given it is predicted to account for 17.2% of it by 2025, are self-evident.

As politicians, leaders, investors, and businesses, but ultimately as people, China will wrestle with this challenge, but the world must also take heed of China’s water-security.  The dry throat of the Chinese dragon may induce more than just a sneeze.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by Ben Abbs.

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Trump once labelled NAFTA, “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere”. This month, he unveiled the NAFTA negotiating agenda, providing a template for trade negotiations yet to occur with other countries – such as China, Germany, and Japan. With an emphasis on tackling tax systems and removing barriers to the US agriculture and manufacturing industries, Asian negotiators will be watching closely.

As the United States Customs and Border Protection prepares to begin construction on the first segment of President Trump’s infamous border wall with Mexico, his administration is anticipating raising trade barriers with their beleaguered southern neighbor.

Trump’s blunt mercantilism, however, risks pushing both Mexico and Canada into China’s open arms. Both countries have already expressed interest in signing a deal with China, and China has reciprocated. With North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations set to begin in August, they have the potential to tilt the global trade balance even further away from Trump.

Given that Trump has defined his mantle, in terms of reducing deficits with a number of major trade partners, including China, Japan, and the EU, the negotiations provide a crucial glimpse into US trade policy moving forward. The US currently runs trade deficits with nine of its 10 top trading partners; last year, it ran a trade deficit of USD 728 billion, ranging from USD 347 billion with China and USD 146 billion with the EU, to USD 63 billion with Mexico.

According to Trump, the deficits are undoubtedly tied to exploitative trading partners, a misplaced trust on the part of an open US economy, and widespread currency manipulation. Earlier this month, the Trump administration released its broad goals for a new and improved NAFTA, demanding increased exports of its dairy products, wine and grains; opened trade in telecommunications and online purchases; an entirely new dispute settlement mechanism; greater access for US banks abroad; and new guidelines for currency manipulation.

There is much riding on an equitable outcome from the negotiations: over 80 percent of Mexico’s trade is with the US, for Canada the figure is closer to 70 percent. There can be no doubt that Canadian and Mexican negotiations face a long, drawn-out battle ahead.

What Trump may have failed to take into account, however, is China’s rising attractiveness as a global consumer and trading partner. As one of the world’s largest oil importers, China is is keen to start talks with Canada over a free trade deal. At the same time, Canada is reaching out to Asian economies in an effort to reduce its trade dependence on the US, as Trump’s unpredictable brand of protectionism keeps economists and corporations guessing.

During a recent visit to Beijing, Canadian Governor General vowed to boost bilateral cooperation between the two countries; and the Ontario Premier has already scheduled her third trade mission to China for November this year. Last month, the two countries signed a bilateral security agreement regarding intellectual property, trade secrets and other confidential commercial information, an agreement may indicate a greater commercial alignment to come.

Mexico has been more explicit about its options regarding the NAFTA negotiations, pointing to an upcoming visit by Mexican officials to China as a sign that the dance card of Latin America’s second largest economy is far from waning. China’s ambassador to Mexico has also hinted at the possibility of a future free-trade agreement with Mexico, citing “no difficulty” from China’s side in broadening ties between the two countries.

Though a trade deal between the two countries would result in lower tariffs, which is a tough sell for Mexican manufacturing jobs, uncertainty over US-Mexico relations would mean that Mexico is accelerating trade talks with other partners, and China might just want a piece of the action.

As the Trump administration goes after China’s trade practices, they risk alienation, as world leaders appear determined to forge ahead with global trade liberalization. The potential impact on major US industries, and the corresponding opportunities for Chinese trade negotiators, is incalculable.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by Joanna Eva.

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Since the 1990s, numerous Islamist groups have emerged in Algeria, but over the years their allegiances and identities have shifted according to geopolitical trends. The Islamic State is the latest group to gain a presence in the country, but it has faced a pushback as the Algerian authorities are no strangers to counterterrorism.

On June 1st, south of the capital Algiers, gunmen attacked a gendarmerie wounding four policemen. It was reported that the attack was orchestrated by individuals acting on behalf of the Islamic State. It was just the latest in a string of incidents which have occurred in Algeria this year. Other high profile attacks claimed by the group include a thwarted suicide attack by two men in the city of Constantine in April, and two months before this a jihadist tried to enter a police station in the centre of the city. On this occasion, a police man on duty succeeded to disarm the bomber’s suicide device by firing on it and the perpetrator was shot.

According to a 2015 report by the US Department of State, some of the most active Islamist groups operating within Algeria include: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM); the Mali-based organisation Movement for United and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO); al-Murabitoun, which was responsible for the 2013 attack on the In Amenas gas facility in southern Algeria and Jund al-Khilafa (Soldiers of the Caliphate), which has declared its allegiance ISIS. However, it is estimated that there are many small groups scattered across Algeria´s southern and eastern borders, which each to varying degrees have declared their loyalty to ISIS.

In light of the Islamic State defeats in Iraq and Syria, many foreign fighters are seeking to return home. Unlike in Tunisia or Morocco, where hundreds of young men have been drawn to the fighting, Algerians have proven less susceptible. In fact less than 200 are said to have travelled to the region to fight under Islamic State´s banner. In Algeria, those who have chosen to align themselves with ISIS have often spent years in the field fighting. The group’s operations faced a setback last year after 332 people were arrested across the country for belonging to recruitment and support networks. Nevertheless dampening the desire for young Algerian men to take up radical causes can be difficult given the high rate of unemployment and social inequity that has beset the country for decades. One commentator has noted that Algeria’s only hope going forward is that there is a surge in the price of oil. Currently, the government is required to pay $30 billion USD in subsidies which cover everything from food to education.

However many contend that what is helping to undermine the threat of the Islamic State is that many Algerians carry the memory of the brutal civil war of the 1990s in which an estimated 200,000 people died. The might of the security force also plays a significant role, as the Algerian military consists of over half a million active service members and a national police force of 210,000. They have learnt to cope with the ‘residual’ terrorism that has continued despite efforts in the early 2000s to grant amnesty to Islamist fighters. The country´s Ministry of National Defense denies publicity to militants by purposely refusing to list group affiliations in communiques regarding arms seizures or anti-terror operations. More broadly, the Algerian government is working to support young Algerians by providing tuition, job placements and paid internships, which is part of a deradicalization program.

While the government continues to address the threat internally, the challenge for the Algerian security forces is controlling the country’s porous 4000 mile border and the mountainous terrain in the north east, which has proven ideal since the early 1990s for Islamist guerrillas. To counter this, Algeria actively participates in the US-backed Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), which aims to strengthen counterterrorism capabilities among states in the Maghreb and the Pan Sahel region. While such programs are certainly designed to assess the changing nature of the threat across North Africa, for the government of Algeria, what remains certain for the foreseeable future is whether Algerian mujahideen choose to fight under the banner of the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda, the tactics and strategies they adopt remain the same.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by Emily Boulter.

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Reporters Without Borders (RSF) released its annual 2017 World Press Freedom Index which revealed Taiwan as the top place among other Asian countries and ranks no. 45 in the world (nations in black are the least free). (RSF)

In the quest for geopolitical influence, soft power can often augment a nation’s traditional hard power resource of a strong military. The concept of soft power, often associated with Harvard professor Joseph Nye, has been defined as “a persuasive approach to international relations, typically involving the use of economic or cultural influence.” Nations have long used economic incentives or foreign aid to win friends internationally, and the widespread popularity of a nation’s culture, such as Hollywood movies and South Korean pop culture, can also contribute to positive images of a country.

While nations may seek positive images in the quest for soft power, oftentimes the opposite occurs, and nations lose soft power. Two recent examples include the U.S., where the new president has yet to gain the confidence of the majority of the public. According to a new Pew Research Center survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22% have confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs, and favorable views of the U.S. have fallen from 64% to 49%. Inside the U.S., 53% of voters disapprove of the job President Trump’s doing, according to a new Fox News Poll. 

Over in China, President Xi Jinping’s numbers are not much better, with a 28% of those world citizens polled believing Xi would do the right thing regarding world affairs. The reasons behind this low polling are varied, but are arguably influenced by the detention of human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, who called for political reforms and died on July 13 in custody.

 One nation which recently gained some soft power, whose status remains a bone of contention among Washington and Beijing, is Taiwan. The decision by Reporters Without Borders (Reporters Sans Frontières) to open its first Asian regional headquarters in Taipei, is a stark departure from original plans to locate in Hong Kong. In explaining its decision, RSF (an advocate for press freedom) cited concerns over increasing media control in Hong Kong and potential infiltration by spies from mainland China.

According to RSF’s global rankings last year, Taiwan has now become the freest country on the Asian continent. At a news conference in Taipei last month, announcing the official launch of RSF, its secretary-general Christophe Deloire said “Taiwan is pure evidence that democracy and press freedom are possible in Chinese culture, and that is really one of the strongest arguments against claims by Beijing authorities their system is really adapted to Chinese culture.”

Soft power gains, such as the location of RSF to Taipei, can in part offset other losses (the recent loss of diplomatic recognition of Taiwan by countries like Panama), are often cost-effective compared to risky foreign investment, and should continue to be pursued as an effective tool in augmenting hard power.

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(Photo Credit: KRG)

On this day, the international community marks the Yezidi genocide. On August 3, 2014, 40,000 Yezidis got stranded on Mount Sinjar. Since that date, horrific stories of sexual slavery, massacres and torture have emerged from the women who managed to escape from ISIS’ grip. On the first day of the genocide, 1,293 people were killed. From the first day of the genocide till the 15th of August, 2014, 6,470 people were kidnapped.

According to Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who delivered a speech on the Yezidi Genocide Memorial Day, the Kidnapping Affairs Office (which is part of the Kurdistan’s Prime Minister’s Office) has managed to rescue 3,092 out of this number with 1,102 of them being women, 335 of them being men and 840 being girls under 18. Kharai Barzani, who represents the Yezidis in the Religious Affairs Ministry and supervises the Kidnappings Office, stressed that 1,600 Yezidi children were trained by ISIS in two ways. They received either ISIS Islamic instruction or military training. Nechirvan Barzani has succeeded to rescue some of them but others are still in ISIS captivity.

Kharai Barzani added that the Yezidi officials asked everyone to help them with the rescue efforts. Nechirvan Barzani opened up a case and that case became an office. Some Yezidis work there to rescue their kidnapped brethren: “We called everyone to help with the rescue efforts but no one came in the international community except Nechirvan Barzani, who has financed the rescue of Yezidis.” On the anniversary of the Yezidi Genocide, Barzani met with 30 girls in Duhok who were rescued by him in order to hear their stories and to ask about their needs.

Kharai Barzani blames the international community for not helping the Yezidis enough: “What happened to the Yezidis is genocide by all definitions. The international community did not do anything to rescue them. Even when Nechirvan Barzani rescues people, the international community does not come to help them. Sinjar is in our zone till now. The Shia militias are also there. Turkey also bombarded the place for the PKK is there. We call on the international community to help.”

However, the lack of response from the international community is not the only issue facing the Yezidis in their struggle to have their genocide recognized. Hussin Hassam is the Yezidi representative for the High Governmental Commission on the Yezidi Genocide that was established by Nechirvan Barzani: “Our commission visited the ICC and a lot of other international organizations to push the international community to recognize as genocide the crimes committed against the Yezidis. Unfortunately, we have been facing a lot of issues for the government in Baghdad is not cooperating with KRG in seeking global international justice for Iraq is not willing to bring groups to The Hague. We need to make a declaration to get the ICC to start a criminal case for these cases and that is why the Prime Minister has decided to do everything possible for the establishment of a special international court like in Rwanda.”

Because not all of the areas where ISIS committed crimes are under the KRG control presently and because the government in Baghdad is not cooperating, the KRG presently is forced to only begin a case regarding what happened in the southern side of the Sinjar Mountains: “This case is still open. We are trying to do our best to get a judicial ruling. We have gotten a lot of recognition of it as a genocide but so far, it was political for it was done by governments and international organizations. However, the KRG wants a judicial case.”

“The KRG still feels the pain of what happened three years ago,” Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said. “The KRG will do its best to reduce the pain of what happened to our beloved Yezidis. The acts of ISIS went beyond all cruelty.” Nechirvan Barzani emphasized that it was the Iraqi army that failed the Yezidis and other peoples of Nineveh in 2014 by running away instead of fighting ISIS: “It is clear to all that fighting terrorism and protection in Nineveh was the responsibility of the Iraqi forces. They had advanced weapons and all they needed. But when five Iraqi army divisions took off their uniform and ran away, they left behind the best and most advanced weapons to ISIS which they used to attack the Nineveh plains and the beloved Shingal region in particular.” The Prime Minister said that the arms Peshmerga had in possession were no match for the advanced weaponry ISIS had just seized from the Iraqi army: “When ISIS came with those weapons, they were more advanced than our Peshmerga. And with the old weapons they had in their hands, there was no way the Peshmerga could defend Shingal.”

According to Mahma Khalil, the PKK is inhibiting the rebuilding of the Sinjar Region today, stressing that some people cannot go back to their lands due to the PKK creating issues for them. Khalil emphasized that some people are also afraid since the PKK kidnaps children and trains them to join their group. For this reason, between the Shia Militias and the PKK, the Yezidi people in Mount Sinjar are not able to rebuild their lives in their ancestral homeland.

The post Remembering the Yezidi genocide appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

On the road of corruption, there must often be a mechanism or legal shield in order to protect past crimes by individuals, parties or governments that have had their hands in the public purse for their personal gain or that of their party.

Silence may not protect high ranking politicians and corrupt community leaders from prosecution if public outrage and activist judicial authorities are able to break through the barrier of silence and power and find those who have committed crimes against the public interest. Brazil is an example where the powerful have been tied to corrupt practices, and while not a perfect and wholly agreed upon solution, moves towards de-legitimizing corruption in Brazil has begun.

Often the concentration of power to one individual or party comes with the presentation of actions that will improve the public good. Altering an election system to make individual votes more balanced is something that any citizen of any country would approve of, but when it installs one party and one President or Prime Minister indefinitely by legal means, it de-legitimizes the law and assures that a small cabal of powerful people has almost total control of the society with no effective means to remove them from power. In many cases, these actions come on the heels of issues linked to corruption or are formalized in a manner that protects powerful politicians from being subject to transparency.

Another abuse of power that often follows this normalization of corruption is that opposition to the government change in policy is labelled and ostracized so they lose legitimacy in their perspective, or in some cases are outright arrested for working against the state itself.

There are no true international mechanisms to assure that elections will not install corrupt governments when the national legal framework is changed to suit the powerful few over the public. An international standard of legal alterations that would avoid the absolute corruption of a legal and political system would be useful, but would require unified and legitimate political will.

Venezuela as a case in point has legalized a committee that will change their constitution to make it into one that permits a concentration of power into a one party state. Protests have been met with violence, and with the current government’s stockpile of advanced weapons over the last twelve years, there is a good chance that Venezuela will resemble the 2009 mass protests in Iran, with their own Neda and silence from the international community. In 2017, it seems as if international crimes and the natural response to promote justice are limited by illegitimate legal power in places like Venezuela, and silence from most international media while local media is threatened and imprisoned.

This combination guarantees that the worst elements of dictatorships almost always succeed in our current generation.

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North Korea has proven  its determination once again to fulfill its aspiration as a self-proclaimed Nuclear Power State with a new ballistic test on July 27th. These tests marked the 64th anniversary of the signing of the Korean armistice. According to the US Department of Defense, an intermediate-range missile Hwasong-14 traveled 620 miles from a Jagang base before landing into the Sea of Japan, within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

This test represents a new challenge to Washington, after Pyongyang conducted its first successful ICBM test last July 1st, which proved that the regime has now reached a new and dreadful stage in the acquisition of preemptive first strike capabilities. Despite the initial predictions, under Kim Jong-un’s leadership, the quest for nuclear weapons has achieved significant breakthroughs. The regime has reached an unprecedented level of sophistication in a number of vital areas, including the development of solid-duel rocket engines and the expansion of mobile launch capabilities.

While Pyongyang has made important progress in the acceleration of its intercontinental range ballistic missile program, North Korea’s regime pushes towards the acquisition of the miniaturization technology considered critical to arm a nuclear warhead. The nation could plausibly achieve this milestone in early 2018 as reported by an anonymous CNN source.

Many observers consider this new test additional evidence about Pyongyang’s determination to deliver a “stern warning to Washington in response to any attempt to alter the peninsula status quo”. North Korea’s warmongering to annihilate the U.S. could now be more than an empty threat since it appears that Pyongyang has acquired the capabilities to hit major cities beyond the West Coast. There is the possibility that the range of the North Korean missile could potentially reach New York City and Washington DC, fostering concerns over Pyongyang’s aggressive intentions.

In the aftermath of the recent missile test, two B-1B Bomber Jets have been deployed to the Korean peninsula, joining Japanese and South Korean fighter jets for training exercise purposes. The United States have also tested the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Alaska by launching a mock ballistic missile in the Pacific Ocean to prove their ability to repel any incoming threat, and to inspire its allies over Washington’s adamant commitment to contrast any further expansion of Pyongyang’s nuclear threat.

The U.S. Pacific Air Forces Commander, Gen. O’Shaughnessy has warned North Korea that the U.S. may “respond with rapid, lethal and overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing”, highlights that the defiant regime is getting close to Washington’s redline. Meanwhile, UN Ambassador Haley has stressed that the U.S. could pursue a different pact, including the deployment of “consistent military forces”, rather than relying on the UN Security Council to consider further actions. Washington has expressed its frustration several times for its inability to produce consistent results through conventional diplomatic tools to rein in Pyongyang, even acknowledging two decades of failed attempts to denuclearize North Korea.

Over the years, North Korea’s militaristic propaganda has several times made threats to Washington about serious military retaliations in response to any incoming threat to the survival of the Kim’s dynasty. Amid the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang has further stressed and justified its path toward the acquisition of nuclear capabilities as a tool to achieve the natural vocation of the DPRK as a nuclear power nation as enshrined in its Constitution. The ultimate strategy is to further consolidate its position and eventually force Washington to normalize relations.

During the Obama Administration, Pyongyang offered a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War in return for Washington’s commitment to renounce the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, a de facto recognition of Pyongyang’s nuclear power status. Such a proposal was promptly rejected by Washington, urging for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula as a prerequisite for restarting any new negotiation.

North Korea has become one of the most pressing priorities for the Trump Administration. Its resolution to tame the belligerent regime under the auspices of Beijing has so far produced little results. Trump’s Administration has also expressed its regrets for China’s limited efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear program, calling for a more radical engagement in restraining Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. Since the Trump Administration took office, regular promises to“take care” of the North Korea issue have characterized the very last days of the previous “strategic patience” strategy.

Trump Administration’s initial entente with China and its attempts to convince Beijing to fully recalibrate its North Korean policy have not produced the expected results, raising tensions culminated in the recent threats of waging a trade war against China. Despite this, Beijing has expressed its frustration for not being able to regain control of the former communist ally, the Chinese leadership remains committed to preventing the collapse of the North Korean regime and the marked geo-strategic alteration that could emerge from the ashes of the hermit kingdom under the auspices of Washington.

Due to the increasing level of North Korea’s nuclear assertiveness, the discussion over a military intervention in the Korean Peninsula has become a recurring topic. The consequence of a military action would certainly expose Washington and its close allies to major retaliation, not to mention the disruption of the fragile balance of the regional security architecture.

Kim Jong-un’s decision to pursue nuclear development along with economic expansion has characterized his personal agenda (byungjin policy) leaves no doubts that the international sanctions and diplomatic pressure from China would not alter the direction taken by the North Korean leadership. North Korean leadership considers itself constantly exposed to foreign attack or internal coup that could destitute Kim’s family sharing the fate of other authoritarian regimes such as Ghaddafi’s Libya in the wake of his decision to abandon the nuclear program in return of expected economic aids under  Washington’s pressure.

North Korea’s regime is now one of the most immediate threats to US national security and also an additional challenge for the Trump Administration, constantly engaged in redefining the contours of American strategic architecture in the Asia-Pacific region. Albeit, Washington remains adamant in instilling faith in its closer allies towards its strategic commitment in the region while confronting the growing threat represented by the North Korean regime, the risk of igniting a conflict in the region, whose catastrophic effects could far outweigh the removal of Kim’s dynastic rule, must be avoided.

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Chariman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff/Flickr

As President of France, Emmanuel Macron has revived the “Grande Nation” more quickly than even he could have imagined: France was recently declared the world’s top soft power for 2017, outranking both the US and the UK for the first time.

After Donald Trump’s recent visit to join Macron for the French National Day celebrations in Paris, the ranking is not too surprising. Less than two months after the handshake heard ‘round the world, Macron’s flattering reception of his American counterpart was apparently enough to paper over the rift the French president himself opened in previous meetings. Having asserted his independence for the sake of his domestic audience, Macron treated Trump (who is easily impressed by displays of military power) to the annual parade on the Champs-Élysées and dinner atop the Eiffel Tower.

Macron has a reputation for deft political maneuvering, and inviting Trump to Paris was the latest example. During the visit, Trump not only retracted his earlier Paris-bashing but even suggested that “something could happen” on the Paris climate agreement. What is that something? For now, only Trump knows. More important is the fact Macron has turned Paris into Washington’s primary European point of contact… all while re-elevating the role of France in global affairs.

Macron’s nascent relationship with Trump, however, comes at the expense of other traditional American partners in Europe and most especially the UK. The success of Macron’s overtures has surely come as a slap in the face to Theresa May. After all, the British prime minister has invested considerable time and political capital on forging a relationship since well before Macron even became president.

Those efforts started well before Trump’s inauguration, when May responded to Trump’s victory with unequivocal congratulations to the President-elect. Just days after he took office, May became the first world leader to visit President Trump at the White House in Washington. May has repeatedly hitched her wagon to Trump’s by insisting that the US & UK can “lead, together, again.”

As of now, she has very little to show for it. Because the prospect of his coming to London has been met with hostility from the British public, Trump has written off any state visit to the UK until next year at the earliest. Trump upped the ante after leaving Paris by reportedly refusing to come until Theresa May can assure him a similarly warm welcome in the UK.

That Trump can so easily shift his affinities between Britain and France, at the very moment contentious negotiations over the Brexit he supported get underway, is a jarring reminder to Downing Street that Trump is both fickle and unreliable in his priorities. Trump’s constantly changing views on a UK-US trade deal, a cornerstone of the British government’s post-Brexit planning, should be most worrying.

In April, Trump’s commerce secretary indicated a trade deal with the UK was a low priority for the administration and argued that a deal with the EU was more important. This month, Trump himself reversed course and opined that a trade deal with the UK would be completed “very, very quickly”. On Tuesday, he promised that the US-UK special relationship would be “even better” – in between tweets attacking his own Attorney General and joking that his young son would soon be testifying in the Russia investigations.

And yet, despite her American counterpart’s constant unpredictability, May keeps putting high hopes in Trump and puts her own credibility on the line to defend his erratic behavior. Embroiled in the intricacies of Brexit, there is a real danger of Theresa May getting herself “stuck in the pending tray.” With Trump distracted by his troubles at home, she would be better off not counting on a UK-US FTA any time soon. Her best move (at least as far as life after Brexit is concerned) would be to focus on the UK’s alternative options.

It’s fortunate that she has several to choose from. Following extensive visits by UK government officials to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), GCC states and major British trade partners like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reacted positively to the idea of forming free trade agreements with the UK. Both countries are looking for investments to realize deep economic restructuring, and annual exports from Britain to the GCC already total about £30 billion.

As the largest member of the bloc, Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of British attention to the region. The Saudis welcomed Theresa May to Riyadh in April to talk trade and the upcoming IPO of Saudi Aramco (in London, if May has her way). London recently published new rules to facilitate the listing of foreign state-owned firms at the London Stock Exchange as part of its bid for Aramco’s public offering. Both May and Cabinet officials like Liam Fox have endorsed Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic program, of which the Aramco IPO is a significant component.

Besides the Gulf states, former British colonies like Australia and India have also been much more consistent in quickly reaching agreements once the UK is outside the European Union. Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull used a joint press conference with May two weeks ago to tell reporters he is ready to sign a free trade agreement with London “as quickly as the UK is able to move” after Brexit. India has hinted that an ongoing visa issue for qualified workers needs to be resolved for negotiations to take off in earnest, but Narendra Modi is still a much more straightforward interlocutor than Donald Trump.

As Brexit negotiations get dicey, Theresa May and her government will need to be able to point to tangible steps forward. The current political climate in the US is hardly amenable to “quickly” coming to terms on a US-UK FTA – at least for now. May needs to focus on serious partners from other parts of the globe, at least until the instability in Washington comes to an end.

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ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin, 2011 (RBC)

As CNN reports, U.S. “companies from the oil, energy, banking, aerospace, auto and heavy manufacturing industries” have been lobbying against the new Russia sanctions legislation currently making its way through Congress, arguing that it could harm their business interests. Since the Trump administration’s efforts at weakening the bill appear to have failed, Russia is now pinning its hopes on opposition from U.S. corporations and from the European Union to avoid tightened U.S. sanctions.

In addition to new sanctions aimed at punishing Russia for its interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, human rights violations, and aggression toward Russia’s neighbors, the bill limits the president’s ability to ease sanctions without congressional approval. This sets up a tough choice for Trump: Sign the bill and accept limitations on his authority to control U.S. policy regarding Russia, or veto it and risk accusations that he is doing the Kremlin’s bidding. The “Trump-proof” sanctions bill has strong bipartisan support in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and a Trump veto would further risk a humiliating override vote in Congress.

Russia views the bill “extremely negatively,” and Russian media have been quick to grasp at U.S. corporate opposition to tightened sanctions. For international audiences, corporate opposition to the bill has been reported in English at Pravda, Sputnik, and RT, emphasizing its potential harm to U.S. and international business interests. As these reports note, U.S. corporations opposing or seeking changes in the bill include ExxonMobil, General Electric, Boeing, Ford, Dow Chemical, Citigroup, Visa, and MasterCard.

ExxonMobil, incidentally, was recently fined $2 million by the U.S. Treasury Department for violating sanctions on Russia while current U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was the company’s CEO. While at ExxonMobil Tillerson met with Russian President Vladimir Putin numerous times following their first meeting in 1999, and condemned U.S. sanctions on Russia following Russia’s attack on Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014. Tillerson’s former role at ExxonMobil and his relationship with Russia have raised conflict of interest concerns regarding his current role as Secretary of State. Tillerson has been vocal in his criticism of the current sanctions bill.

Reports in English from Russian media also note European Union concerns and warnings that “unintended consequences” may result from “unilateral tightening of Russia sanctions.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel is quoted calling the sanctions “a peculiar move” by the United States. Concerned particularly that tightened sanctions on Russia might impact Europe’s energy sector, the EU has indeed expressed alarm at the bill, urging the United States to coordinate sanctions with its European partners. EU opposition to tightened U.S. sanctions on Russia comes despite evident Russian interference in European as well as U.S. elections.

U.S. corporate opposition to tightened sanctions on Russia has also been widely reported in Russian-language media for domestic audiences. American industrialists are “tired of the persecution of Russia,” says Pravda TV, “and demand that their own business interests be protected.” Pravda TV also notes EU corporate opposition to tightened U.S. sanctions on Russia: “The presence of these restrictions for most business people on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean is a major headache. Business seeks to resolve this issue and return to traditional business relations.”

Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election and suspicions regarding possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign have put considerable pressure on Congress and the White House to take strong measures against Russia. Both in Russia and in American and European corporate circles, however, the hope seems to be that multinational business interests will prevail over the interests of American democracy and national security.

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Dilma Rousseff was impeached last year as the elected President of Brazil. The divide between her supporters and her opponents led to some of the largest political demonstrations in the country’s history. Michel Temer, who replaced President Rousseff, was suspected of being complicit in corrupt practices as well, and has recently been investigated and charged but still holds his position as President. Former popular President Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva who was set to run again for Rousseff’s PT party was convicted recently under a corruption probe, and sentenced to ten years in prison.

Actions against corrupt practices coming out of the Petrobras scandal have placed many of Brazil’s political class under legal review. The judicial activists who had the courage and ability to go after corruption in the country have exposed the structural and institutional infestation of corruption in Brazil. While Brazil is not unique in being mired in corruption, the actions by some in its judiciary and government came from the anger of the people and the desire to end waste that had consistently burdened the citizens of Brazil.

The character of corruption is that once it takes hold, it is almost impossible to get rid of in any meaningful way. Because deep corruption is often embedded in the top tier of an organization, the practices to get ahead and be successful permeates the entire administrative structure from the top down. This makes it impossible to grow as an honest agent in that structure without acquiescing in some way to the new infected culture. Working against those practices often means coming from the outside and pairing with internal agents.

Such individuals often assume a great risk to their career in exposing the problems within their organization, and in most cases those whistle-blowers lose in the greater scheme of repairing or replacing corrupt agents in those organizations. Embedded corruption, often one that came with the creation of an agency is even more of a challenge, as the institutions and structures within are formed around a tradition of corrupt practices. When analyzing the challenge the judicial activists in Brazil had to confront in institutions that were built on generations of corrupt practices, it was shown that issues were present in most established control structures with many politicians and business leaders from many political parties in Brazil being found linked in their investigations.

Brazilians in many ways had no choice but to demand accountability, and it was evident that most of their political leaders were not in the moral position to pursue change. Fighting against corrupt practices was the only way to turn power and just policies back towards helping the average person in Brazil. Voting for political parties that have been tarnished by corrupt practices is the worst approach as it institutionalizes and legitimizes their illegal activity.

With no political betters, the courage and strength of Brazil’s judicial inquirers were placed in the position to investigate and apply legal solutions when most Brazilians likely assumed this possibility did not exist. Beyond abrupt revolutionary movements, removing corrupt practices is almost impossible. Even some of the least corrupt societies have trouble challenging institutionalized corrupt practices.

Brazil may just be fortunate to have a few who are able to change their country by reducing corruption via a positive and legitimate judicial approach, perhaps for the first time in their history.

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Indonesian navy crew (right) check one of seven fishing boats destroyed in Batam, Kepulauan Riau province on February 22, 2016 (AFP Photo/Sei Ratifa)

With its announcement at a United Nations conference last month, Indonesia became the first nation to commit to publish the exact location and activity of its commercial fishing fleet.  The decision was announced at a U.N. conference on the ocean, and calls for Indonesia to publish Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data on the mapping platform of Global Fishing Watch,  an independent 501c3 organization founded and supported by Oceana, SkyTruth, and Google.

Solely a tool of transparency, Global Fishing Watch allows citizens, journalists, researchers, commercial interests and governments to track some 60,000 fishing vessels in near real time, using satellite systems and publicly broadcast Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals from ships at sea.   AIS signals cover the majority of all industrial-sized commercial fishing vessels (those exceeding a capacity of 100 Gross Tons which average around 24 meters).  Smaller vessels are not required to carry AIS, though can be tracked using government-owned VMS data.

Indonesia’s announcement follows concerns over increased illegal fishing activity in the South China Sea, and several incidents of ramming between fishing vessels and coast guard vessels of various nations.  Indonesia, the second largest producer of wild-caught seafood in the world, will add some 5,000 vessels to the database of Global Fishing Watch.

Since Beijing claims some 90% of the South China Sea, many Chinese fishing boats operate in the exclusive economic zones of other countries with the support of Beijing.  Chinese officials often argue its fishing fleets are operating in “traditional Chinese fishing grounds,” a position which was recently refuted by an international court in The Hague under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) signed by China.

This position often draws the ire of countries such as Indonesia, which has been particularly tough on illegal fishing, following the appointment of Susi Pudjiastuti as Minister of Fisheries and Marine Affairs.  Susi has drawn widespread support from Indonesians for her crackdowns on illegal fishing, after years of the government downplaying incidents (especially  in 2010 and 2013) over concerns Beijing could cut investment in Indonesia.  

The decision by Indonesian authorities to support better fishing transparency may help prevent confusion over incidents such as last year’s ramming of an Indonesian Ministry of Fishery and Marine Affairs patrol ship by a Chinese coast guard vessel in March 2016.  According to media reports, a 300-ton Chinese fishing vessel had been illegally fishing about 4 kilometres off Indonesia’s Natuna island chain.  The Indonesian patrol ship confronted the Chinese fishing vessel, detained its crew, and proceeded to tow it to Indonesian shores.  Before they reached shore, a Chinese coast guard vessel came to the rescue, ramming the Chinese fishing boat, and eventually prying it free, boarding it, and sailing it away.  The Chinese Foreign Ministry argued the incident occurred within “traditional Chinese fishing grounds” and the Chinese coast guard ship assisted the seized Chinese fishing boat without entering Indonesian territorial waters.

Beijing is not expected to publish the location and activity of its commercial fishing fleet anytime soon, but other nations’ efforts toward greater transparency of their own fleets may help protect their fishermen when operating in their exclusive economic zones.  Indonesia’s intention to map its own fleet is an effort toward much-needed transparency, and by working with an independent organization, Jakarta could effectively set the standard in the South China Sea and shame any further efforts by Beijing to claim “traditional fishing grounds”.

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Photo Credit: Hindu Struggle Committee

In an exclusive interview, Shipan Kumer Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, described the ascent of ISIS in Bangladesh and how it poses a threat to the Hindu community.

Shipan Kumer Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, stated in an exclusive interview that ISIS is on the ascent in Bangladesh and he blames the Bangladeshi government for this reality: “Many of the people who have gone to fight the Coalition Forces have returned. How many of them have been arrested by Sheikh Hasina’s government? Only a handful. These people are nurtured, protected and backed by Sheikh Hasina. They are used to spread terror and fear among the minorities.”

According to Basu, Sheikh Majubur Rehman, the father of Sheikh Hasina, always despised the minorities and Sheikh Hasina has vowed to follow in her father’s footsteps when she came into power: “So, her policy is to make Bangladesh free of the minorities. She has used ISIS in a very veiled and clandestine way. Although the US has time and again pointed out ISIS’s presence in Bangladesh, the government denies it. Within a few days of the denial, a police constable was murdered and ISIS claimed responsibility on their website. Another incident was of a person spreading leaflets of ISIS propaganda in the Bangladeshi capital city of Dhaka. Many ISIS members are from reputable families in the party leadership so there is no suspicion against them.”

Basu related that the attack upon a Dhaka café in July 2016, which left 28 people dead after hostages were held for 12 hours, permitted the truth to come out into the open. During that attack, local Islamists were the culprits: “How many has the government arrested or put behind bars? How many training camps are in Sheikh Hasina’s own Gopalguni district, where Hindus are now in a state of horror? I want to call upon the international community to prepare a report on the plight of Hindus in her district. The state has become a killing field for the minorities. With the government supporting terrorists and jihadists, Muslim fanatics have risen their ugly faces.”

“ISIS has forced Hindus to flee from their ancestral homeland,” he stressed. “There is massive land grabbing, torture, rape, murder, the destruction of Hindu temples and gods, the threatening of Hindu priests and even the killing of Hindu priests. It is all the handiwork of ISIS jihadists. Forced conversion is another ploy to diminish the minorities. Forcefully, they have converted many Hindu women and girls.”

Basu emphasized that the modus operandi of ISIS in Bangladesh has changed: “They have now merged with local operatives because ISIS was declared an international terror organization. So, all of their activities are covert. They camouflage themselves with the ruling parties rank and file and Islamic extremist groups. Due to this, they have kept up their dreadful activities at ease. Even if an arrest is made, it is classified as a local minor incident and small charges are made against the terrorist. No stringent anti-terror law is applied. Dr. Abul Barakat, a Dhaka University Professor, said that if the cleansing of minorities continue in the present way, there will be no more Hindu minorities left in Bangladesh in 30 years.”

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U.S. President Donald Trump meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in (left) at the White House in Washington, DC on June 29. (Yonhap)

U.S. President, Donald Trump and South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, wearing similar-tone-bearing blue ties reaffirmed their ‘ironclad’ commitments to the U.S.–ROK ‘blood alliance’. During a joint press conference, held in the White House Rose Garden on June 30, the leaders affirmed their bond regarding a unified assertion against North Korea’s existential treats. They agreed on the fact that North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear weapons development has reached a tipping point, where ‘maximum pressure’ needs to replace ‘strategic patience’ in a bid to curb North Korea’s evolving errant behavior.

Nonetheless, the two leaders showed a hint of flexibility regarding the extent of strategic choices under consideration, by underlining that their utmost priority is to keep the Korean peninsula peaceful. In this sense, the White House respected Moon’s pursuance of a ‘two-track’ strategy, by acknowledging the importance of initiating a dialogue with North Korea ‘under the right circumstances’. Although the nature of such circumstances remains open to subjective interpretation, the U.S.–ROK alliance has adamantly emphasized that the measures of UN sanctions should be heightened, unless North Korea fulfills its basic obligations to denuclearize itself as a responsible member of international society. In the meantime, the alliance has occasionally softened its tone by making it clear that it does not seek regime change or regime collapse in North Korea. The summit, held for the first time following Moon’s  restoration of presidential powers in South Korea, shared the common goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula in a peaceful manner, and re-appreciating South Korea’s leadership role in moving the process toward peaceful unification of the Korean peninsula.

President Moon Jae-in lays a wreath at the memorial to the Battle of Chosin Reservoir at the National Museum of the Marine Corps, in Virginia, June 28. (Blue House photo pool)

Moon began his four-day trip to the White House by attending the dedication ceremony for the Chosin Few Battle Monument on June 28. Surprisingly, Moon’s own parents were among the refugees saved by U.S. Marines from Chinese attack during the Battle of Chosin Reservoir. At the dedication ceremony, Moon sincerely demonstrated his gratitude in his speech toward the U.S. veterans gathered at the event. He confessed his personal indebtedness to them as follows: “If it hadn’t been for those who fought in the Battle of Chosin Reservoir, if the operation to evacuate the port of Hungnam hadn’t been successful, my life would probably have never begun, and I would not be here today”. He also added how the veterans’ sacrifices had not been forgotten by the nation, either: “The Republic of Korea remembers your and your parents’ sacrifice and dedication. Its memory of gratitude and respect will continue forever”.

Such efforts on Moon’s part to revalorize the U.S.–ROK blood alliance were revealed as even more resolute in his trade gift. Leading South Korean conglomerates that accompanied Moon as part of his business delegation announced constructive job-creating investment plans on American soil. Samsung Electronics will invest $1.8 billion in home appliances and semiconductor plant facilities in South Carolina and Texas. Likewise, LG Electronics will spend $550 million on washing machine plants in Tennessee and New Jersey. SK Group and GS Group will begin importing American shale-gas in a few years, while Hanjin Group will purchase 50 additional planes from Boeing over the next seven years. These investments plans were, however, unfortunately not enough to appease Trump’s appetite for the ‘America First’ doctrine. Trump addressed the trade imbalance issue between the two countries in his statement, prognosticating renegotiation of the U.S.–Korea Free Trade Agreement, or KORUS FTA.

In the greater scheme, however, this trade imbalance is not a major point for the U.S–ROK alliance. There are still many issues that the two countries need to seek agreement on, based on close mutual trust. In this regard, the summit successfully regularized a 2 + 2 ministerial meeting, as well as a high level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group under the common purpose of strengthening extended deterrence against the Kim Jung-un’s threats.

Bad Omen for the Future of Two-Track Policy?

The U.S.­–ROK summit approved Moon’s two-track policy, offering the Kim Jung-un an opportunity to exit from its current escalation phase. However, Kim Jung-un dynasty refused to do so, at least initially, speaking instead of its intention to directly play the game with U.S . On the eve of Independence Day, the Kim dynasty tested Hwaseong 14 ICBM, the country’s leader calling the event a “package of gifts” for Americans. The Kim dynasty’s such test since the Moon administration took power overshadowed Moon’s July 6 ‘Berlin Declaration’, which was intended to solemnly manifest the revival of the Kim Dae-jung administration’s inter-Korean rapprochement approach.

In a coordinated response, the U.S., South Korea and Japan swiftly released a joint statement in the middle of the annual G-20 meeting hosted by Germany, calling again for newer and tougher UN sanctions against Kim Jung-un’s provocation, as well as China’s greater role in restraining Kim Jung-un. U.S. ambassador to the UN, Nikki Hailey, at a UN Security Council meeting called Kim’s unexpected gift “a clear and sharp military escalation” and further stated that “we will work with China…but we will not repeat the inadequate approaches [of] the past”. South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister, Kang Kyung Hwa, seemed to concur with these remarks when she told the National Assembly on July 9 that she is in the process of discussing secondary boycotts with the U.S.

As Kim Jung-un’s provocations evolve into a new phase, some analysts suggest that a nuclear freeze in exchange for the suspension of annual U.S.­–ROK military exercises is the only viable solution to the problem. Nevertheless, latest developments testify that the time is not yet right. Perhaps Kim Jung-un’s greed to maximize his negotiation leverage has grown too immense for the carrot-oriented Moon-shine policy  to properly work.

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