Foreign Policy Blogs

New United States Ambassador to Vietnam Daniel Kritenbrink arriving at Noi Bai International Airport in Ha Noi on November 4, 2017. Photo: Tuoi Tre Here in Da Nang, economic leaders from around the Asia-Pacific region are gathering for this week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ summit hosted by the Vietnamese.  Established in 1989, APEC is a regional economic forum comprising 21 member states, including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam.

 

Just ahead of the summit, Daniel Kritenbrink, a Nebraska native, was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on October 26 as the next U.S. ambassador to Vietnam.  Kritenbrink arrived in Hanoi on Saturday and will present a credential letter to Vietnamese State President Tran Dai Quang on Monday morning.  His first mission is to accompany U.S. President Donald Trump during his trip to the APEC summit.

Kritenbrink, 50, has been a State Department Foreign Service Officer since 1994, recently serving as Senior Director for Asian Affairs under former President Barack Obama’s National Security Council.  Prior to that assignment, he was Deputy Chief of Mission in Beijing, and also served at the U.S. embassies in Japan and Kuwait.  Kritenbrink studied political science at the University of Nebraska at Kearney and received a master’s degree from the University of Virginia.  Kritenbrink replaces outgoing U.S. Ambassador Ted Osius, who under Obama was responsible for warmer relations with the Vietnamese and participated in the lifting of a lethal weapons arms embargo by the U.S.

While it is still early days for foreign policy under the new U.S. administration, recent testimony of Kritenbrink at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearings on September 27 may provide some hints of future U.S. foreign policy in Vietnam, which appears to be similar to that of the previous administration:

“Our goal remains to advance American interests across the board and support the development of a strong, prosperous, and independent Vietnam that contributes to international security, engages in mutually beneficial trade, and respects human rights and the rule of law.”

Regional security

At his testimony, Kritenbrink first pledge was to “strengthen Vietnam’s maritime security capabilities” in the disputed South China Sea, calling the region “vital to our respective security and commercial interests as Asia-Pacific nations.”  To this end, he also encouraged Vietnam to continue its active role within ASEAN.

Trade and investment

Despite the U.S. pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, Kritenbrink stressed the importance of trade and investment with Vietnam, noting Vietnam was America’s fastest growing export market.  He called for Vietnam to improve labor and environmental standards, transparency for state-owned enterprises, and intellectual property protection, leaving the door open for negotiation on a new U.S. bilateral trade agreement with Vietnam.  

Human rights

While regional security and trade and investment may be higher priorities, Kritenbrink did not shy away from listing human rights as “a top priority for the United States.”  While noting “some progress” on human rights and religious freedom, Kritenbrink called the trend over the past 18 months of increased arrests, convictions, and harsh sentences of activists as “deeply troubling” and called further progress on human rights critical for Vietnam to reach its fullest potential.

People-to-people ties

The new ambassador also noted that Vietnam is in the top six source countries for foreign students studying in the U.S. and Vietnamese students contributed some $700 million to the U.S. economy in 2015.  He also highlighted the new Peace Corps program and Fulbright University Vietnam (FUV) – to which the outgoing U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, Ted Osius, was recently appointed as vice president.

Humanitarian and war legacy issues

Lastly, Kritenbrink called for the full accounting of U.S. military personnel missing in action from the Vietnam War “our solemn obligation”, while noting the U.S. has contributed $103 million to deal with unexploded ordnance and $115 million toward the remediation of dioxin contamination in Da Nang.

While Kritenbrink may have had limited exposure to Vietnam as a diplomat (three official trips and the overseeing of the negotiation of two bilateral Joint Statements with Vietnam in 2015 and 2016), his time as deputy chief of mission in China will bring much-needed perspective to his new role in Vietnam.

As Kritenbrink duly noted in his testimony, young Vietnamese hold overwhelmingly positive views of the United States, and with a booming economy (growing between 6-7 percent), Vietnam and the U.S. could become strong partners in the region.  Of course, many Vietnamese will be closely watching the speech (and any tweets) from U.S. President Donald Trump on his vision for a “free and open Indo-Pacific region” during his visit this week to Da Nang.  His comments could signal further interest in Vietnam and the region’s affairs –  something some foreign policy analysts (and Vietnamese) fear is dwindling over U.S. domestic challenges and growing Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.  

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Picture of suicide bomber Ayat Al Akhras in front of UNRWA school (Photo Credit: Kay Wilson)

A new comprehensive study by the Center for Near East Policy Research & the Israel Resource News Agency, commissioned by the Simon Wiesenthal Center, highlights new Palestinian Authority school books used in UNRWA schools, which shows unprecedented incitement to terror. How should the 68 UNRWA donors react?‘

Most recently, the Center for Near East Policy Research and the Israel Resource News Agency published a comprehensive study, commissioned by the Simon Wiesenthal Center, which underwrote some of the costs associated with the study. The study provides numerous examples of how new Palestinian Authority textbooks that are used in UNRWA schools incite terrorism against Jews and the State of Israel. What differentiates this study from all previous studies of PA school textbooks since the PA began introducing their own schoolbooks in 2000 is that this was the first time that all PA school books were examined.

This study argues that despite statements made to the contrary by the US State Department, incitement to terrorism remains a pivotal part of the Palestinian school curriculum. For example, Arabic Language, Grade 5, Part 1 (2017) p. 14 and Social Studies, Grade 9, Part 1 (2017) p. 74 describe Palestinian female terrorist Dalal Mughrabi, who murdered 38 Israeli civilians in the Coastal Road Massacre, as a “martyr of Islamic and Arab history” who “commanded the Fidai ‘Deir Yassin’ operation on the Palestinian coast in 1978 in which over thirty soldiers were killed.”

A terror attack targeting the Jewish community of Psagot is described by Arabic Language, Grade 9, Part 1 (2017) p. 61 as a “barbecue party [haflat shiwa’] there with Molotov cocktails on one of the buses of the Psagot colony [musta’marah – Jewish settlement].” Arabic Language, Grade 7, Part 1 (2017) p. 66 describes the State of Israel as the “devils aides.” And Our Beautiful Language, Grade 3, Part 2 (2016) p. 64 includes the following poem: “And I shall remove the usurper [ghaseb – code name for Israel] from my country and shall exterminate [ubid] the foreigners’ scattered remnants [fulul al-ghuraba’]. O land of Al-Aqsa [Mosque] and the sacred place [haram], O cradle of pride and nobility. Patience, patience, for victory is ours!”

Throughout the 2016-2017 textbooks, the name Israel was replaced by the phrase the “Zionist occupation” and the Arab-Israeli conflict was referred to as “the Zionist-Arab conflict.” The maps in the Palestinian textbooks don’t show Israel on the map. Even major Israeli cities like Tel Aviv do not appear on the maps in the Palestinian textbooks for they were built by Jews. However, there are calls for the descendants of the Palestinian refugees to return to their former homes via armed struggle. As Our Beautiful Language, Grade 5, Part 1 (2015) p. 50 declares, “We are returning/ Returning to the homes, to the valleys, to the mountains/ Under the flag of glory, Jihad and struggle/ With blood, sacrifice, fraternity and loyalty/ We are returning.” Even the math textbooks included questions that prompts students to support the “Palestinian shahids.” The question remains whether funding to UNRWA should be made conditional upon reforms in the UNRWA educational system?

Chris Gunness, spokesman for UNRWA, issued a statement that UNRWA is mandated to teach the national curriculum of the host country’s government, which in this case refers to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza and asserted: “We have reviewed them rigorously in line with our curriculum framework, which aims to ensure that our curriculum is in line with UN values. In the small number of instances where issues of concern were found, we have created enriched complementary materials for use in our classrooms and we will be rolling out training on this to our teachers in the coming months. UNRWA’s condemnation of all forms of racism is a matter of public record.”

A spokesman for the Swiss Embassy concurred: “UNRWA’s condemnation of all forms of racism and its efforts to prevent them are well documented. As evidenced by Switzerland’s regular dialogue with UNRWA, the Agency investigates founded issues with due diligence. In this regard, UNWA has one of the strictest control mechanisms in the UN system. Switzerland has no evidence of institutionalized hate speech or institutionalized anti-Semitism on the part of UNRWA.”

Dr. Arnon Groiss, the study’s author, disagreed, stressing that documentation provided by the Center for Near East Policy Research shows how some UNRWA staff members have openly supported terrorism against Israel as well as anti-Semitic hate speech online and some UNRWA teachers have even moonlighted as terrorists. For example, UNRWA’s workers union posted a poster featuring the map of “Palestine” (Israel is wiped off the map) accompanied with the following caption: “Oh UNRWA, we have a cause and our fight, jihad, resistance and struggle against those who usurped our land do not need neutrality.” The UNRWA’s workers union has been controlled by Hamas for many years. Some former UNRWA employees, such as Suheil Al-Hindi, were actively part of Hamas while working for UNRWA for years. It took a very long time for UNRWA to get rid of Hindi.

Om Alaa, who identifies herself as an UNRWA teacher on her Facebook profile, published on social media a picture of Adolf Hitler and his “top” ten quotes. Eman Shammala, who identifies herself as an UNRWA teacher on her Facebook profile, published a photo on Facebook of a keffiyeh-clad Palestinian playing a knife like a violin, using a Palestinian “key of return” as a bow. At the Al Fakhoura Middle School (UNRWA), the Islamic Bloc organized an event honoring 13 years since the martyrdom of senior level Hamas terrorist Sheikh Yassin. A sign featuring Sheikh Yassin and the Hamas flag waved outside of the school.

There are many more examples that highlight how UNRWA has been exploited by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah terrorists. However, there are still those in the international community who refuse to call a space what it is. Therefore, Sander Gerber, a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, added: “The PA indoctrination of its population is well known but its pervasiveness and impact hasn’t been fully appreciated. The Center for Near East Policy Research study identifies UNRWA education as one epicenter for this institutionalized hatred, which blocks any hope for peace.”

Rabbi Elie Abadie of the Sephardic Academy in New York emphasized: “I think the US and also the UN need to review that entire budget to UNRWA and to make it conditional on them maintaining their neutrality, removing any inciteful material and removing any employee that is connected to terror organizations. Many of the UNRWA employees are sympathizers of terror organizations. Some of those schools are used to store weapons, keytoushas and rockets. That entire charter of UNRWA has to be checked and revised. I think it should have been done long ago.”

Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely concurred: “A fundamental examination and serious revision of UNRWA is required. It is crucial that the UNRWA curriculum be revised to educate for peace instead of continuing to incite a new generation towards hate and violence. We need to see a reform in UNRWA. There needs to be increased supervision and accountability of relief funds to ensure they are going to help needy people and not to support terror and the destruction of Israel.”

MK Dr. Anat Berko added: “The issue of UNRWA should be investigated. It definitely should not stay as it is today. Yes to humanitarian aid. No to ‘refugee forever’.”

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado) took it a step further: “All funding for UNRWA should be cut until reform conditions are met. Textbooks that delegitimize Israel, denigrate the Jewish people, promote the “right of return” through violent struggle, and glorify martyrdom must be banned.”

According to Former Israeli Consul General to Miami, Former Israeli Consul General to Chicago and Former Deputy Mayor of Netanya Dr. Yitzchak Ben Gad, “I think UNRWA is a source of trouble. Its mandate was to help the Palestinians to stand on their own two feet and to be a constructive element in Palestinian society and to support themselves and their families. Instead, they are doing the opposite. They teach children to hate Jews and Israelis. They even quote the Quran that says that the most terrible enemy of the Muslims is the Jews. Enough is enough. Time for a change.”

Prominent Middle East expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar stressed: “UNRWA lost its raison d’etre years ago and all of the other issues are secondary.”

Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, declared: “Since the 1990s, the ADL has been a strong voice calling for peace education for all. We have long expressed outrage that textbooks in the Palestinian Authority have not prepared these students for peace, and instead have instilled deep hostility towards Israel and Jews and support for terrorism and armed conflict. Over the years, much attention has been paid to this issue, and the Palestinian Authority, UNWRA and others have pledged to remove anti-Semitism, the celebration of terrorism and incitement from these educational materials. To a degree, they have done so. We are therefore alarmed that new textbooks for Palestinian students appear to still venerate terrorists and promote martyrdom and do little to promote the idea of Israel as a reality and a partner for peace.”

Rabbi Donniel Hartman, head of the Shalom Hartman Institute, believes that assuming this study is accurate, there are deeper issues that the international community must grapple with: “In contemporary moral discourse, the powerless are always moral. The powerless aren’t challenged for their moral failures. Power equals immoral, colonialism, etc. We allow the powerless to maintain mediocre moral standards as if we are somehow being considerate when we are condemning their society to the mediocre. You are not doing the powerless any favor by providing excuses. Moral expectations are healthy for everyone. When you don’t treat someone as an adult, it is paternalist. It is not just UNRWA. It is a universal discourse.”

“In the Jewish tradition, we are taught we have sinned,” Hartman added. “You don’t pound someone else and say you are wrong. When you don’t do that, there is no societal improvement. Every society has to ask themselves what they have done wrong, not what someone else did as an excuse for my wrongdoings. Too often they excuse moral mediocrity. They don’t challenge those categorized as history’s victims. Today, you win when you are considered the victim. The issue is how we live together, not counting the chips of victimhood. Under the assumption that the textbooks are morally flawed, anybody who pushes for more improvement is helping. Whether the best way is sanctions or not is a separate issue. The Palestinians have to be held responsible for what they teach their children and until they do, any aspirations for peace and a better Middle East won’t come to fruition.”

The question remains, who is correct? All of the documentation provided by the Center for Near East Policy Research and the Israel Resource News Agency demonstrates that the claims made by the Swiss Embassy and UNRWA that incitement is not a major issue in UNRWA schools is not accurate.

It is clear to any objective observer that incitement remains a major problem in the UNRWA school system despite the introduction of new textbooks in the Palestinian Authority. How idealistically should the international community respond to this? Disbanding UNRWA is not an option as it can only be disbanded by the UN General Assembly.

Therefore, the only possible way to bring about change in UNRWA education is for donor states in the West to use their financial influence to insist that UNRWA’s curriculum rigorously excludes the promotion of hate and violence and whose materials reflect the reality of a neighboring Jewish state. In addition, the new UN Secretary General and all nations committed to peace in the Middle East must demand that UNRWA ends all incitement in their schools. Furthermore, all staff members—especially teachers—who are members of terror organizations and/or make a statement in support of terrorism and/or demonstrate hate speech should be fired.

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I’ve missed you even if you did not know that you missed me.

From 2007 to 2014 I was at various times the: Blogger/Senior Blogger/Senior Editor for African Affairs here at FPA.

Well, I’m back! I’ll mostly be focusing on South Africa, because politics and society in South Africa in the next few months will have a vitally important influence on the continent. But my coverage, in keeping with my own work — both journalustic and scholarly — will be broad. I will write about politics, yes, but also sport and culture, history and ephemera. And I will also continue to look beyond South Africa’s borders to events and questions arising in other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.

I am thrilled to be back. Thanks for reading!

The post The Prodigal Son Returns appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

This post is written by W.A. Schmidt, an op-ed contributor.

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When it comes to the Trump presidency, sympathetic observers outside the United States are preoccupied with the same question that the majority of their American counterparts must be pondering: How much longer will this president inflict damage upon his country, its political culture, its international relations and its global reputation without paying more of a penalty than a mere shrug among most of his supporters?

For the sake of illustrating the extent of incredulity among foreigners, let us imagine for a moment the shock and dismay that would emerge if the leaders of some of America’s closest allies were to have uttered what has flowed so carelessly out of Trump’s mouth.

What if the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, had mocked a reporter for his disability, demonstrated her complete ignorance of the country’s nuclear deterrent during a debate, braggingly disclosed an intelligence source to Russia, praised President Putin for expelling British diplomats and suggested that the U.S. president appoint a far-right bigot as American ambassador to the UK?

What if Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, had bragged about his sexual prowess, about grabbing women with impunity and about his voters’ forgiveness even if he shot someone in the middle of Paris, had encouraged police brutality against arrested suspects, become obsessed with and incessantly lied about the crowd size at his inauguration and claimed he received praise in meetings that never occurred?

What if Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany had incited violence against protesters at her rallies, attacked mainstream media as “fake news,” called journalists “sick people,” retweeted pictures of physical violence against a major news network and encouraged Russia to hack and leak the e-mails of her political opponent?

What if the Prime Minister of Italy, Paolo Gentiloni, were openly stoking and abetting racism, had called illegal immigrants “rapists,” compared them to “vomit,” refused to distance himself unequivocally from the violence perpetrated by domestic neo-Nazis, called some participants in their rallies “very fine people“ and waxed aesthetic about fascist statues?

And what if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had called Canada’s election system “rigged” when he was not sure he would win, falsely accused his predecessor of wiretapping him, questioned the legitimacy of members of the judiciary as “so-called judges,” called for the prosecution of his political opponent after the election, engaged in pitiless personal vendettas via Twitter and repeatedly expressed his infatuation with human-rights abusing authoritarian rulers?

These examples are but a fraction of the unrelenting dose of equally un-presidential missives and falsehoods that continue to stream forth from President Trump.

In more decent times – i.e. before Trump’s dreadful feat of coarsening public life by mainstreaming vulgarity and normalizing mendacity – voters would have recoiled. They would have treated such utterances as either the work of a humor-challenged satirist or the product of a fake news outlet. Alternatively, they would have considered the source incompetent, immoral or out of touch with reality and certainly unfit for public office. And yet, this man was elected and has remained, so far, in power.

Meanwhile, we must rely on the efficacy of the countervailing powers to contain the damage. Thankfully, some of the checks and balances within government have been triggered. Resistance in society-at-large is strong and mounting. His record low approval ratings are a further sign that common sense is still alive and that the majority of Americans is not being fooled.

Hope rests also in the fact that, so far, none of the policies he intends to pursue command majority support at home. Interestingly, some of his highest domestic disapproval ratings relate precisely to those issues that are of greatest concern abroad, namely foreign policy and the environment.

Trump claimed speaking not just for America but for the West at large when he read out the disingenuous prose of his scripted remarks in Warsaw, Poland: “I declare today for the world to hear that the West will never, ever be broken. Our values will prevail.” This begs the question: What in his unscripted and hence unfiltered outbursts could possibly be representative of the values of the West?

In any case, his actions speak louder than the fake solemnity of his teleprompter speeches. Nowhere is this more apparent than in his willful destruction of American diplomacy. If Trump took the defense of the West and the United States seriously he would strengthen not eviscerate the Department of State. Nor would he mistreat friends and allies while expressing his admiration for the methods of authoritarian strongmen.

Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly was yet another missed opportunity to demonstrate statesmanship. For the most part, it was jarringly incoherent and parochial. Its many retrograde aspects pleased the adversarial powers he spared most. They see in him a fellow traveler, if not an ally, in their quest to undermine the fundamental values that undergird the United Nations, particularly in the field of human rights and international humanitarian law.

Since the UN’s founding, each consecutive U.S. administrations has endorsed the universality of these values and at times promoted and protected them – until now when even the pretense is gone. His tirade left America’s closest friends understandably aghast. Many of them rebuked him diplomatically in the speeches that followed. Some, like Sweden’s foreign minister, expressed their disagreement with more frankness.

Trump’s supporters would be well-advised to go beyond the soundbites of his speech and its fawning coverage by the news sources they typically consume. Instead they ought to read it in its entirety and then compare it with a speech that would have made Americans proud had it been given by their own president. It was Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, who took on the task of filling the void left by a politically and morally abdicating America. His engaging and inspiring address at the UN aimed at mobilizing humankind’s best intentions and abilities to cope with the world’s problems.

In contrast, Trump’s inclination lies in appealing to people’s lowest instincts and in debasing, not upholding, civilized norms and values. He is neither suited for nor interested in leading by example. As a result, the U.S. has morphed into an outlier among the community of democracies in both style and substance. This voluntary retreat from global leadership is a godsend to America’s enemies and to autocrats the world over. It should make every patriotic American shudder.

It is not surprising that when a prominent BBC journalist returned to the U.S. after spending a few weeks in Europe this past summer, she felt that she had returned to a country “diminished and dismissed.” Her impression was that in Europe “general publics increasingly see the US as a non-entity. It’s not even seen as a joke, people are saddened by America’s diminished global status.”

This becomes painfully obvious in personal exchanges with citizens from other democratic countries. Condemnation of Trump the person and most of his policies is near universal across the political spectrum, except for the extreme right. Case in point was Trump’s complete isolation due to his decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement. His ignorance of the world inures him from grasping the damage he causes to the standing of his own country, let alone the health of the planet. His pointless posturing may well feed his ego, special interests and the most ill-informed members of his base. Yet for those who care about the U.S., it was just another sad instance of America’s unprecedented alienation from the rest of the world.

Americans better engage in some somber soul-searching as to why such a great nation took such a potentially fateful turn. This task applies predominantly to those Trump voters who do not generally share his or his far-right supporters’ extremist views. They would be well-advised to heed the warnings by fellow Republicans such as former President George W. Bush, former presidential candiates McCain and Romney as well as Senators Corker, Flake and Sasse. How much longer can sensible supporters possibly remain complacent or complicit?

As for the self-proclaimed “super-patriots” among his base, when will they realize that their unconditional support will discourage him from changing course; that giving him a free pass will only deepen domestic and international divisions; that it will wreck America’s image further; and that this may ultimately put the nation at risk – whether from outside or even from within?

And, on a more personal level: that maintaining their allegiance to such a toxic leader in spite of the harm he causes speaks volumes about their gullibility? Or worse, that it exposes the shallowness of their professed “love of country”?

—

W.A. Schmidt is an international affairs consultant and a member of the board of the Foreign Policy Association. He is an op-ed contributor, and his views do not necessarily reflect the views of the Foreign Policy Association or of the Foreign Policy blogs network.

 

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Current negotiations between Canada, Mexico and the United States to revise and modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have been characterized by notable disagreements and heavy demands across parties, as well as threats from US President Donald Trump to exit the current agreement altogether. However, the energy sector – and North American energy independence specifically – is a potential area of cooperation that might save NAFTA in the long-term.

The original 1993 agreement excluded rules and regulations for the energy sector largely because Mexico still had a nationalized energy industry. However, current President Enrique Peña Nieto enacted sweeping reforms in 2014 that opened up the industry to private and foreign investment. The renegotiation of NAFTA therefore presents an opportune time to harmonize the three countries’ large and diversified energy industries. Theoretically, this would create an entire region of energy independence and affordable and reliable access to fuel.

Cross-border energy commerce already strong

Canada, Mexico and the United States possess more than enough natural energy reserves to achieve full energy independence if a free trade agreement induces affordable prices and accessibility. The US Energy Information Administration projected in its 2017 Annual Energy Outlook that the three NAFTA countries’ combined production of petroleum and other liquid fuel sources is on track to very soon surpass consumption. The US also now ranks as the world’s largest joint producer of oil and natural gas.

The North American energy industry also already boasts a significant level of trade in oil and refined products, gas, and electricity, even without a specific provision in NAFTA. According to the US Department of Energy, as of 2012-2013, the United States had $140 billion and $65 billion in trade of energy products with Canada and Mexico, respectively. Canada is the United States’ largest source of trade in energy products, and Mexico already purchases around 60-65 percent of US gasoline and natural gas exports. The approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline earlier this year, while highly controversial from an environmental standpoint, now enables 108,000 barrels daily of refined petroleum to flow from the US to Mexico. The US already manages 17 pipelines that carry over four billion cubic feet of natural gas a day to Mexico. These statistics indicate a fast-growing market for US energy products.

Furthermore, while NAFTA energy integration would be dominated by fossil fuels in the near future, North America’s diverse range of climates and topography make the region poised to become a major player in cleaner, renewable energies, particularly solar, wind and ethanol. Mexico has grown significantly under NAFTA to become a competitive, middle income country. This growth has translated into a rapid increase in demand for electricity; Forbes estimates that, in the next 25 years, Mexico’s power use will double.

Approximately two-thirds of Mexico’s energy growth will come from natural gas, but the remainder is expected to come from renewables. Accordingly, Mexico has rapidly expanded its capacity for wind energy, with a 400% increase expected from 2014 to 2018 and the US has witnessed a similar level of growth in wind energy capacity. This has already created major demand for turbine equipment from US companies such asGeneral Electric, with considerable space for additional growth.

Political commitment to North American energy independence

Encouragingly, all three NAFTA leaders have signaled that they view North American energy independence as a major priority, demonstrating a potential major area of consensus in the midst of otherwise tense negotiations. In 2016, Presidents Obama, Peña Nieto and Trudeau stated a joint goal to make renewable energies constitute 50 percentof North America’s electricity by 2025, up from 37 percent in 2015. This goal may be deprioritized under Donald Trump, but his administration is most certainly focused on energy independence in general. In a June speech at the US Department of Energy, Trump announced his desire for “US energy dominance.” Moreover, the US Trade Representative’s NAFTA renegotiation objectives, released July 17, emphasized support for North American energy independence, indicating buy in from the US in this arena.

Leading industry associations in all three countries have echoed these goals. Earlier this year, the American Petroleum Institute, Asociación Méxicana de Empresas de Hidrocarburos and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers issued a joint proposal urging reforms that liberalize trade of energy goods and integration of North American energy supply chains. These commitments provide an opportunity to integrate a new export sector into NAFTA that could help eliminate the United States’ trade deficit with Mexico, a particular point of contention regularly raised by Trump. They also provide an opening to create a holistic set of common cross-border standards around energy production and usage for both traditional and renewable fuel sources.

Political risks to energy sector integration

The biggest political risk to achieving these energy integration goals will be Mexico’s leading candidate for the presidency in 2018, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), a leftist populist whose platform has been elevated, largely in response to harsh rhetoric from Donald Trump towards Mexico. AMLO has threatened to reverse the 2014 reformsthat opened up Mexico’s energy sector to more private investment.

Second, the investor-state dispute settlement mechanism (ISDS) will be critical to keeping the three countries’ energy policies and regulations in harmony, but the Trump administration has proposed scrapping this vehicle from NAFTA. For example, each country currently provides different levels of subsidies and standards for what exactly qualifies as renewable energy. These disparities could theoretically lead to conflicts between foreign companies and the state with regard to tax breaks and fair competition. Consequently, the ISDS provides a critical independent judicial body and risk management mechanism to protect their international investments.

Energy sector integration across North America is a lofty goal to achieve, especially amongst three heads of state with vastly different political philosophies and political headwinds in 2018, indicating potential for further polarization. However, current trends in cross-border commerce and domestic economic objectives make NAFTA renegotiations an appropriate forum to address the issue.

 

This article first ran on Global Risk Insights, and was written by Samuel Schofield. 

The post How the drive for North American energy independence could save NAFTA appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

One of the most iconic tools for bringing down the Soviet Union was the distribution of information from the West and the promotion of an anti-Soviet narrative that was forbidden behind the Iron Curtain. In societies where the control of information was a necessity to controlling the narrative and beliefs of a society, challenging the ruling elite and the Politburo created a distrust of the Soviet leadership and promoted dissident movements inside the Soviet Union. This tactic was so effective because information and the freedom to challenge the government were limited to those at the upper echelons of the Communist Party. In a one party state, opposition in any form and the treatment of different opinions as dissidence makes any challenger a soon to be martyr. In societies where a small group of people seeking justice and revolution are scripted into the national character, challenging the powerful control of elites dominating a corrupt system is something most citizens are receptive to in their daily lives. For this reason the organisation Radio Free Europe was created, broadcasting behind the Iron Curtain to promote Western ideas or freedom of speech and democracy inside of Eastern Europe at the time.

In all societies there is a natural inclination to have justice prevail so citizens with little power do not have to live under the repression of powerful elites and work fruitlessly for the sole needs of a few corrupt individuals. In most societies where the free press is protected, there is the ability to challenge whatever narrative and information is distributed publicly. The damage to a Communist society does not have the same weight as there is no coercion following the distribution of ideas in free societies. Blocking or repealing thoughts and ideas should not become acceptable because no thoughts or ideas can exist in such societies without the ability of being challenged in some fashion. Coercion to block freedom of speech is often illegal in those legal systems, and that is how modern democracies should function. When someone in a free society with complete freedom of speech is touched by a real event that is reported in a manner that people close to an incident know not to be true, it is not the same as listening to a challenged report behind the Iron Curtain. Focusing on their opinion and attempting to sully, damage or threaten an individual for voicing whatever opinion they hold is and should be considered a gross violation of their rights in free societies. This is the case because if an idea is dangerous and is not creating a direct physical threat, it means it is breaking the control of someone or a group of people, and that power structure likely should not exist in the first place to take justice away from people in a society who dare to voice their opinion. Even if information contains bias, the ability to challenge it should be paramount as blocking it creates the impression that there is a lack of justice in the process of banning that form of speech.

Many will then ask, how do you know if a news source is reliable? In reality you do not know how reliable a source may be as there is no oracle that can be relied upon to disseminate such information to an extremely reliable degree. It is best to measure the source of the information and whether or not their information is distributed to benefit those that run that organisation. Bias in reporting will exist, but if that bias is to help a cause the reader sees as just, it can be seen as reliable as much as it is agreed upon by various groups and interests. Another good measure is to be extremely skeptical of any source that focuses or divisive policies or targeting thoughts, ideas or individuals without contributing new information to a narrative. News that acts as an attack advert against other news agencies, groups or individuals mirrors Soviet era overreactions in the pre-Glasnost era. Any negative media against open ideas that go beyond debating the ideas and moves into attacking a person or their character is likely a disservice to an open society. These tools are usually used by political elites to win elections, and would be best described as propaganda as opposed to a story published by a journalist who works in a professional manner.

Journalism and its role in society is paramount. It is so crucial that stories are not banned, but challenged, as the truth often comes with justice. While laws are changed or lawyered into different meanings, justice and equity tend to be at the core of values in a free society no matter how much suppression is applied against free thinkers. Justice is so powerful that even a lack of truth did not save the Soviet Union from the effects of Radio Free Europe and other measures to remove that elite structure from existence. Half-truths and coercion against free speech almost always make for martyrs in societies, and when ideas are suppressed the natural imbalance and lack of justice becomes intolerable to individuals, and they react, they always react.

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As sectors of the domestic and world economy become more dependent on the internet and the cloud, their vulnerability to new forms of attack and disruption increases. Cybersecurity is not just a national defense issue, but must also become a cost of doing business.

It is clear that the shipping industry is susceptible to cyber-attacks. These attacks can be as harmful as the damage caused by storms. In many ways, they might be more harmful, because they can come out of nowhere.

Maersk and NotPetya

In June 2017, Maersk was subject to a cyber-attack centered in Ukraine. The malware, called NotPetya, is a variation on the ransomware called Petya, but NotPetya does not appear to be supported by a desire to get rich, just a willingness to cause mayhem.

Unlike Petya, which did act as ransomware, NotPetya scrambles the target computer’s file system — everything is lost. No possibility of paying in Bitcoin exists.

The NotPetya attack knocked out Maersk’s network for several days, and Maersk expects the total loss from the attack to be in the neighborhood of $200-$300 million. While operations resumed quickly, the attack led to the complete shutdown of Maersk’s operations worldwide.

Vulnerabilities

The industry relies on computers to function, and GPS equipment is connected to worldwide networks. Engines are run using computers.

The number of vulnerability points, both on-shore, and at-sea, is large and growing. If the construction of self-driving ships becomes a widespread reality, more vulnerabilities will appear.

Email systems are vulnerable to hacking. Cyberkeel, for example, discovered hacking activity in a shipping firm’s systems. A virus planted in the system monitored emails originating in or destined for the finance department. The virus changed the text of the message to change the bank account number to that of the hackers.

It cost the company several million dollars before they noticed.

Cyberkeel was founded three years ago and established to provide cyber security. One of their programs was to provide penetration testing of shipping firms’ systems. At first, they met with little success, because firms were complacent with their systems. Perhaps the greatest vulnerability is complacency.

Many shipping systems are not encrypted. The lack of encryption makes the shipping line and its vessels vulnerable to cyber attacks. Regardless of encryption, many ships’ crews are not trained in cyber security. One survey indicated that in 2015, 43% of crew members were aware of their company’s cyber security policies, while only 12% had received training.

Piracy

One shipping firm was hacked by pirates — sophisticated pirates.

Instead of seizing a vessel and holding the crew hostage pending ransom payment, these pirates gained access to sensitive information regarding ships, cargos, containers and contents. They boarded the vessel, opened the specific containers containing the valuables and left with the loot.

Unlike what happens in many hijackings, the pirates released the crew and never asked for a ransom.

The company eventually became suspicious, determined the pirates had hacked the computerized manifest, and they took steps to prevent further unauthorized access.

Propellers and Charts

Another vulnerability is in the systems which control a ship’s operation. One container ship in an Asian port was shut down when a switchboard which managed the power supply to the propeller, and other mechanical components were shut down by ransomware.

Electronic Chart Displays are rarely protected by anti-virus software. Charts are, of course, crucial to navigation, especially in restricted and coastal waters. The chart display of one tanker in Asia was infected by crew carelessness.

A crew member brought a USB flash drive on board to print paperwork. The flash drive was infected with the malware, which only activated when another crew member tried to update the charts before departure, also using USB. The problem was detected while still in port, and it was fixed. Had the problem occurred at sea, however, the situation could have become dangerous.

Taking Control

Independent cyber security firms and analysts are confident that hackers could cause catastrophic results. It is possible to take control of the systems from afar and cause a collision. They have performed tests on the systems and succeeded in penetrating them.

An attack could also change the coordinates displayed by GPS, although in coastal waters the crew would likely spot the difference and adjust for it. But at least one ship’s open satellite system had the username “admin”, which needed to use the password “1234” to access the system, which means that someone at the shipping company was careless.

It is likely hackers did not cause the recent collisions between USS Fitzgerald and John S. McCain and merchant vessels. The U.S. Navy aggressively encrypts its systems, which should deter hackers from invading their confidential information. Current indications are that crew and command errors led to the collisions. There’s no indication the merchant vessels were hacked, either, but both collisions are under investigation.

South Korea reported that 280 vessels had to return to port in April 2016 due to problems with their navigation and other systems. South Korea believes North Korea was responsible for these hacks.

In addition, jamming devices fitted to lighthouses have been tested and can affect GPS receivers up to 16 nautical miles. Some GPS devices died, while others provided false information. Jamming devices on ships can cause even more chaos.

Solutions

The industry has begun to recognize the risks it faces. Awareness that a problem exists is always the first step toward solving the problem.

Shipping lines — and the industry as a whole — should follow a set of guidelines for cyber security, and those guidelines should be strong and effective.

You must train your crews and alter their behavior. Make crews aware of the cyber risks and what they can and can’t do with the computer systems on board. While printed copies of bills of lading and other information remains important, ensuring computers and printers can’t be compromised by an infected flash drive should be a top priority.

The industry also needs to create standards to allow insurance companies to cover damage from cyber-attacks. You must identify the risk so insurance underwriters can evaluate what you identify.

Cyber security is as necessary as physical security. Companies expend significant resources ensuring their buildings remain safe. Companies should realize their electronic systems are just as vulnerable to attack, and extend the same level of resources ensuring the safety of their ships and crews — and business.

—

Cory Levins serves as the Director of Business Development for Air Sea Containers.  Cory oversees the development and implementation of ASC’s internal and external marketing program, driving revenue and profits from the Miami FL headquarters.

 

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A passerby helps an old man hit by a car, in Beijing September 9, 2014 (Photo/IC)

Joseph Nye of Harvard University first coined the term “soft power” in his 1990 book, Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power.  He explored further the notion of soft power in his 2004 book, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, arguing: “A country may obtain the outcomes it wants in world politics because other countries – admiring its values, emulating its example, aspiring to its level of prosperity and openness – want to follow it. In this sense, it is also important to set the agenda and attract others in world politics, and not only to force them to change by threatening military force or economic sanctions.  This soft power – getting others to want the outcomes that you want – co-opts people rather than coerces them.”

China rightly deserves any soft power emanating from its ability to pull millions out of poverty, and the example Beijing is setting in renewable energy and electric cars is laudable.  But there is still work to be done – one such area is the scarcity of good Samaritan behavior.

Good Samaritans, those who help people on the spur of the moment, are unfortunately a rare species in China.   The name comes from the parable of the Good Samaritan, as told by Jesus in the Bible of a traveler who is stripped of clothing, beaten, and left half dead alongside the road. A priest and then a Levite both pass and avoid the man, until a Samaritan stops to help.  Some European countries, such as France and Germany, have Good Samaritan laws which impose a duty on citizens to intervene with assistance for those in need.   

Yet in China there is little trust between strangers, with many citizens justly fearing being blackmailed by fraudsters, or sued in court for aggravating the injuries of victims.  Most Chinese are familiar with at least one legal case where those who tried to help were successfully sued by the victim for either causing injury or creating the incident.  In 2006, a Nanjing man was ordered to pay 40 percent of an elderly woman’s medical bill after she broke her leg – on the presumption he must have been guilty to have helped her.  Another man committed suicide after being found guilty of knocking down a senior citizen in south China’s Guangdong Province in 2014.  During my six years in Shanghai, I was often advised by Chinese friends to not interfere in “local matters” and once saw a man jump into the side of a car, an act I was told was an oft-employed effort to collect compensation from the driver, usually decided on the spot after any vehicle accident.

I left China in 2012 for a number of reasons, but my decision was sealed after watching a surveillance video on YouTube showing a two-year-old girl named Yueyue being consecutively run over by a van and a light-duty truck in Foshan a year earlier.  Some 18 passersby were taped walking past the girl without offering help.  The girl died later after days of medical treatment.  The driver later told the China Daily “If she is dead, I may pay only about 20,000 yuan ($3,180).  But if she is injured, it may cost me hundreds of thousands of yuan.”  In April 2017, a woman crossing the street in Henan province was hit by a taxi which didn’t stop and was run over again by a SUV, while pedestrians witnessing the incident kept walking.  

So it comes with some relief the recent announcement of China’s Good Samaritan law, which went into effect on October 1, China’s National Day, which provides protection to those who voluntarily offer emergency assistance to victims who are, or who they believe to be, injured, ill, in danger, or otherwise incapacitated, ensuring that they will not be held civilly liable in the event that they harm the person they are trying to save, according to China’s official Xinhua news agency.

While it is true that rescuers could cause more damage to those already injured, just walking by without doing anything was never the proper response.  There are usually enough witnesses around at anytime in China who could vouch for the innocence of those accused good Samaritans.  And professional rescue should be just a phone call away.  Here in Ho Chi Minh City, strangers will not hesitate to stop and rush to help those involved in the frequent accidents – which kill one person every hour in Vietnam.  With the new Good Samaritan law taking effect in China, we can hope the same attitude eventually prevails in China, and China can gain some soft power by leading from example.   

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In an exclusive interview, Shipan Kumar Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, emphasized that Sheikh Hasina’s government is rushing to help Rohingya Muslims but is systematically discriminating against Hindus, Buddhists and Christians in her country including the Rohingya Hindus who came to her country seeking shelter from ethnic cleansing.

In an exclusive interview, Shipan Kumar Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, stressed that Sheikh Hasina’s government is rushing to help the Rohingya Muslims who have come to her country even when it contradicts Bangladesh’s national security but is harming the Hindu minority within her own country: “The Sheikh Hasina government and her party leaders have shown so much kindness to them that they have even forgotten about their own security. There are reports that Rohingya fringe groups have started to loot and steal in the areas where they are given shelter.”

“The security of Bangladesh is at stake,” Basu proclaimed. “Yet, Sheikh Hasina does not care about that for she wants to show the international community that she is a great humanitarian. But on the contrary, the Hindu, Buddhist and Christian minorities within her country are being tortured every day. Millions of minorities have been forced to leave Bangladesh. Their exodus was prompted by her government’s policies. The Awami League has never supported the minorities within Bangladesh.”

According to Basu, the Sheikh Hasina government has always instigated violence against the Christian, Hindu and Buddhist minorities within Bangladesh: “They then pass the buck onto their adversaries like the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. In order to look clean themselves, they have thrown many leaders from political parties that they oppose in jail on false charges. When addressing Bangladeshi minority leaders and the international community, they evade responsibility, blaming their adversaries instead.”

“They do this even as hundreds of homes were burnt, women were raped, minority lands were grabbed, Hindu idols and temples were desecrated, and minorities were suppressed and mistreated within Bangladesh,” he noted. “The minorities are suffocating in Bangladesh under the Sheikh Hasina leadership and yet they have the guts to pretend to be innocent while pointing the accusatory finger at their political opponents.”

“Sheikh Hasina’s agenda have been exposed numerous times by her adversaries,” Basu added. “However, in order to stay in power as long as she can, she suppresses the opposition and the minorities while showing the world that she is being open-minded and has a big heart to help the Rohingya Muslims. She has given refuge to millions of Rohingya Muslims while discriminating against the Hindu Rohingya as her party followers and leaders systematically suppress the rights of the minorities within Bangladesh.”

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As the Iraqi Army, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Shia militias attack Iraqi Kurdistan, Israeli MK Akram Hasson and Israeli diplomat Mendi Safadi reiterate Israel’s support for an independent Kurdistan.

After the Iraqi Army, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Shia militias launched multiple offenses in Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Khurmatu, Prde and other areas over the last week, many Kurdish civilians have been forced to flee their homes due to the indiscriminate violence, torture, gang raping, looting, and the burning of civilian homes and properties. So far, 168,372 civilians have been displaced. In the wake of such wanton violence targeting the Kurdish community, Israeli MK Akram Hasson proclaimed the State of Israel’s support for the Kurdish people at this critical juncture.

“Israel displayed a clear position for the right of the Kurdish people to an independent state within the historic borders of Kurdistan,” he declared. “We stand as one front against the Iranian threat, which declares its desire to eradicate Kurdistan and Israel. We won’t permit them to arm themselves against our allies. We stand with them against every threat and we recruit the support of the free world to prevent the fall of their dream by leading terrorists in Iran.”

At a historic meeting between Israeli MK Akram Hasson, Kurdistan’s President Masoud Barzani, Mr. Dilshad Berzani and Mendi Safadi, the head of the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy and Public Relations, Mr. Dilshad Barzani warned that if the Kurdish wall against Iran will fall, Shia terrorism will achieve its goal and he called for American support in stopping the recruitment of Iran in spreading Shia terror, which works for the eradication of the Kurdish dream and the Kurdish people in the region. Mendi Safadi added: “This is a historic meeting where I stressed cooperation for achieving an independent Kurdistan. We are working via joint efforts to establish an international lobby to support the Kurdish peoples’ struggle.”

Mendi Safadi also attended a demonstration in front of the Iranian Embassy in Berlin, where thousands of Kurds protested the Iranian attacks and Iran’s open war alongside that of the Iraqi Shia militias against the Kurdish people. Safadi stated in his speech that the Israeli people support their right to an independent state, emphasizing that both the Jewish and Kurdish people have a historic right to their homelands.

He noted that while the Arabs are fighting to erase this historic right, the Israeli people still want them to have a country. Safadi hopes that the Kurdish and Israeli flag will be flown over the skies of an independent Kurdistan for Israel’s government welcomes them and supports their just demand for independence.

As Israeli scholar Dr. Mordechai Kedar proclaimed, “Every group has the right to have its own state, its own homeland, its’ own government and to control itself. It is time for all the nations occupied, coerced and persecuted by other religions and nations to be liberated. If they want independence, let them have it in order to make sure they stay alive and prosperous. Why should they be forced to live under the yoke of another culture especially when the other culture is vicious and cruel?”

Meanwhile, within the Islamic Republic of Iran, already many Iranian Kurds are inspired by Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence Referendum despite the brutal onslaught the Iraqi Kurds have faced from the Iraqi Army, Iran and the Shia militias for voicing their opinions democratically. According to Iranian Kurdish dissident Kajal Mohammadi, “The people of Iranian Kurdistan stand in solidarity with the struggle of greater Kurdistan. The language of violence and threats no longer scares them.” Noting that Iranian Kurds have demonstrated in solidarity with Iraqi Kurdistan and the violent Iranian response to these protests, she emphasized: “No occupying force can break this bond of solidarity and support for one another. The people of Kurdistan are fed up with the Iranian regime. Their threats of bloodshed and their continued militarization no longer work.”

Iranian Kurdish rebel Mohammed Alizadeh stressed that he believes Iran reacted in the way that they did to the Iraqi Kurdish Referendum and the celebrations by the Iranian Kurds of this referendum for they are afraid of its implications: “The first step was taken to reach the goal of having a Kurdish nation. The enemies of the Kurdish nation are so afraid of this. Iran sent in a large military force to prevent the freedom celebrations of the Kurdish nation but the people of Kurdistan are brave enough to resist Iran.”

However, as Kurds across the world are increasingly standing in solidarity with Iraqi Kurdistan and waving Israeli flags alongside Kurdish flags at political demonstrations, there is also a lot of criticism of how America has responded to the recent violence implemented by Iran and its allies against Iraqi Kurds. As Kurdish leader Arif Bawecani declared, “From 2014 to 2017, many of you prized the Kurds for fighting for the whole world in the war against ISIS and terrorism but today you are sending Iran and Iraq against the Kurds. What kind of friendship do you have for the Kurds? Where is your conscious?”

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The Kyrgyz presidential elections are a positive sign for democracy in the Central Asian region. However, a recent quarrel between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan tarnishes the picture and threatens regional integration efforts. President-elect Zheenbekov is confronted with crucial decisions concerning the formation of a government.

The presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan held on 15 October were remarkable in many respects. In a region that is first and foremost associated with autocrats only to be toppled by revolution or natural demise, Kyrgyzstan made history this year by holding Central Asia’s first ever competitive election. Surrounded by Kazakhstan where Nursultan Nazarbayev has been reigning since 1990, Tajikistan with its lifetime “Leader of the Nation” Emomali Rahmon in power for a quarter century, and Uzbekistan, where Shavkat Mirziyoyev was elected with 89% after Islam Karimov’s decades long leadership came to an end, Kyrgyzstan witnesses the region’s first peaceful transfer of power from one elected president to another.

The outcome was no less astonishing than lead-up to the election, as Sooronbay Zheenbekov, incumbent president Almazbek Atambayev’s personal pick, unexpectedly gathered 54% of the vote; avoiding a runoff with businessman Omurbek Babanov in a second round.

Although widely perceived as free – mainly due to a modern voting system based on bio-metric registration – OSCE addressed the burdensome nomination process for candidates and reported minor violations such as vote-buying on election day.

Owing to the competitiveness of the vote, the election campaigns between the two major opponents Zheenbekov and Babanov were characterized by the dissemination of compromising material and the massive abuse of administrative resources. For instance, after a rally in the southern city of Osh on 28 September during which he addressed the Uzbek minority, Babanov was accused of inciting ethnic hatred, a sensitive issue after the2010 riots which resulted in hundreds of casualties.

Having commenced his business career in Kazakhstan, once holding a Kazakh passport, Babanov was an easy target when it came to questioning loyalty to the Kyrgyz state, especially after reports of his clandestine meeting with Kazakh and Russian oligarchs on the banks of lake Issyk-Kul in early September were leaked into the public.

However, what might have struck Babanov with the strongest blow was Nazarbayev’sinvite to Astana on 20 September, after which incumbent president Atambayev deplored the alleged Kazakh meddling into Kyrgyz internal affairs; pointing to the Kazakh government’s corruption.

Kazakh-Kyrgyz quarrels: potential threat for regional integration?

What might have been intended as a pre-election gambit to discredit Babanov has developed into a fully-fledged international dispute between two member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). After Atambayev’s remarks, Kazakhstan on 10 October reintroduced border controls and customs checks to Kyrgyzstan and partially suspended the import of dairy products, which has led to massive congestion and economic damage to Kyrgyz companies. As Kyrgyzstan reciprocated, Southern Kazakh and Northern Kyrgyz regions experienced shortcomings in a myriad of sectors. Labour migrants’ free movement on both sides of the border is restricted. Kyrgyzstan has alerted the WTO Dispute Settlement Body to Kazakhstan’s commitment violations.

After Kazakhstan’s threats to re-impose sanitary and phytosanitary controls as well as checks of Kyrgyz national residence permits, Atambayev questioned his country’s membership in the EEU Customs Union and reminded his partners that “we have other neighbours as well”. To lend weight to Atambayev’s words, the Kyrgyz government officially renounced a USD 100 million technical aid package from Kazakhstan – granted on a Supreme Council Meeting of the EEU in December 2016 –  to assist the Kyrgyz process to harmonize itself with the Custom Union’s standards after Kyrgyzstan had refused to sign the new EEU Customs Code Treaty.

Kazakhstan, being less dependent on Kyrgyzstan economically than vice versa, has nearly unlimited escalation range to put pressure on its southern neighbour. However, Bishkek announced that it could consider tapping the Kirov water reservoir located in northern Kyrgyzstan, which would deprive bordering Kazakh regions of their water supply.

One of the most remittance dependent countries in the world (30% of the GDP in 2016, estimated at 37.1% for 2017), Kyrgyzstan relies heavily on its EEU membership. However, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, whose nationals also predominantly work in former Soviet neighbour countries, have shown the ability to manage fairly well in this respect outside the EEU.

Although the probability of Kyrgyzstan leaving the EEU can be assessed at a minimum, the current spat has revealed latent resentments between the member states and does not bode well for the organisation, and may daunt potential candidate states, such as Tajikistan.

Regional dynamics

Kazakhstan’s harsh reaction to Atambayev’s diatribe might be induced by the recent rapprochement between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which experienced a certain thaw under President Mirziyoyev. Kazakhstan, largest by territory and economy among the five post-Soviet Central Asian republics, sees its dominant regional role challenged by an increasingly engaged Uzbekistan. Bishkek could further reinforce its relations to Tashkent in order to lower its dependence on Kazakhstan. Russia would be well-advised to mediate in the regional developments in order not to see its economic (EEU) and security (CSTO) integration efforts jeopardised.

Domestic challenges

A Kremlin press release suggests that the election outcome suits Russia. Zheenbekov appears to be a convenient president in Moscow’s view. During his campaign, he asserted that he would continue Atambayev’s policies, although it is hard to determine what has constituted the latter’s tenure apart from delivering stability to Kyrgyzstan after the 2010 revolution.

Zheenbekov will struggle to find broad support among the population after a divisive election campaign and a comparably thin mandate having received the smallest vote for an elected president in the country’s history (at a turnout of 56%, only about three in ten Kyrgyz effectively voted for him). With his major opponent Babanov being backed by a third of the electorate, Zheenbekov is walking a tightrope.

Atambayev’s conspicuous bias has fuelled rumours he might want to stay in the government – potentially as new prime minister or faction leader of his social-democratic part – as the competencies of prime minister and parliament had been widened after a constitutional referendum last December. Other potential candidates for the post of prime minister are incumbent Sapar Isakov or Omurbek Babanov, who served in the same role in 2012. On the one hand, this latter scenario would accommodate a large part of the electorate. On the other, Babanov, whom Zheenbekov blustered to imprison after the election owing to his alleged corrupt business activities, might instead want to prepare for the next elections on the opposition bench.

Zheenbekov, who is widely perceived as Atambayev’s puppet has to form a government by 1 December,  and does not enjoy his entire party’s trust. By barring party leader Atambayev from pivotal executive positions, he would, on the one hand, refute critics who doubt his autonomy, but on the other would possibly lose even more support from the social democrats. If Atambayev strives for further curtailing of the president’s constitutional authority, Zheenbekov might see himself confronted with the decision to give in or risk the disintegration of the ruling party. This could play into the opposition’s hands for the next elections.

 

This article was originally published on Global Risk Insights, and was written by Tobias Vollmer. 

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Spain is on the verge of imposing direct rule over Catalonia, with potentially explosive consequences. GRI’s Marc Hernando Santacana asks: How did we get here?

The dramatic developments since the independence referendum may feel sudden, but nationalism in the Catalan region of Spain is nothing new. There was the Modernist political movement of the early 20th century – and the 1976 demonstrations demanding political amnesty, greater freedoms, and a new Statute of Autonomy.  In more recent years, a clear sequence of events has resulted in an ever-greater part of the population embracing the idea that Catalonia might be better off on its own.

The 11 September movement

In 2010, based on an appeal by the conservative Partido Popular, Spain’s Constitutional Court cut back a significant proportion of a revised Statute of Autonomy for Catalonia that had already been approved by referendum, and that then-President Rodríguez Zapatero had promised he would support. The Catalan responded with a one million-strong demonstration that cut across the political spectrum. Then the Catalan started to make demands for a more favourable taxation system, arguing that Catalonia was losing economic potential under the existing arrangements. The simmering discontent culminated on Catalonia’s National Day, 11 September, when 1.5 million people took the streets. They were asking for the “right to choose”: a referendum that would gauge public opinion on independence. This demonstration even saw the participation of Spanish national parties such as the Socialist Party, since it was not officially a pro-independence rally.

Every 11 September since then has seen civil society groups organize public demonstrations that shifted towards expressing outright demands for independence. In 2014, a first attempt to hold a referendum took place. The Constitutional Court ruled the referendum illegal even before it took place, but the result – 80% in favour of independence – nonetheless had a political impact.

Soon afterwards, regional elections were held and the parties supporting independence gained a majority of seats in the Catalan Parliament.

The new cabinet took further steps towards a hypothetical independence process that was supposed to last two to three years. Meanwhile, tensions hardened between separatists and unionists. And there were other driving forces at play as well. These included “the economic crisis, the loss of legitimacy of Spanish political institutions and elites, the attractions of identity politics, and comparative grievances”, as LSE Spanish Studies Professor Sebastian Balfour told GRI at the time.

The perception grew that Madrid did not have Catalonia’s best interests at heart. Earlier this year, a plot under the name of “Operation Catalonia” was uncovered, causing widespread indignation in the region. According to judicial records, Spain’s former Minister of the Interior Jorge Fernández Díaz had conspired with high ranking police officials to delegitimize some Catalan political figures and, consequently, the process of independence.

In June 2017, the date of the current referendum was set for October. Spanish authorities indicated they were prepared use any means necessary in order to prevent it from happening. On 1 October, this was taken a step further when Guardia Civil troops actually used forced to stop people from voting.

Two political camps

Two distinct political groupings have formed over the years in relation to the independence issue. There is the nationalist movement, backed by political parties such as Junts pel Sí and the Candidatura d’Unió Popular and civil society organizations such as the National Assembly of Catalonia and Òmnium Cultural. This is opposed by the unionist movement, which includes the Partido Popular and Ciudadanos; the sole civic group supporting it is called Catalan Civil Society. In terms of the population, the demographics joining both causes are fairly homogeneous in terms of geographical origin and social status.

The two largest outliers within the Catalan borders are Podemos and the Socialist Party of Catalonia. They have been quoted both in favor and against the separatist movement. The real wildcard, however, might be the European Union. As a supranational organization, it might have the most leverage in terms of an agreement being reached, but thus far has largely stayed out of the fray.

Little prospect for compromise

In the initial aftermath of the referendum, there was some expectation in Catalonia that President Charles Puigdemont would unilaterally declare independence within the week. Instead, he equivocated: seeming to make the declaration, then suspending it and calling for talks with Spain. However, the Spanish side refuses to negotiate unless the referendum result is annulled. This has led to a new escalation, where Spain intends to invoke Article 155 of the Constitution, imposing direct rule on Catalonia – unless the region agrees to hold snap elections.

This way out has also been rejected by Puigdemont, who instead has gone out to join mass demonstrations, calling Madrid’s threats of direct rule “an attack” and an attempt to destroy democracy. He has nonetheless reiterated that his offers of dialogue are “genuine”.

Neither party seems willing to make compromises. Under these conditions, more forceful actions by Madrid are likely, which will further alienate the Catalan population, making a compromise even more difficult. An intervention by a greater authority – the EU – seems increasingly necessary.

 

This article was originally published on Global Risk Insights, and was written by Marc Hernando Santacana. 

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The latest terrorist attack in Mogadishu has brought the threat of Al-Shabaab to the forefront of world news and signalled the weakness of the Somali American-backed government.

More than 300 people died on 14 October in Mogadishu after two bomb trucks exploded in the crowded district of Hodan. While no group officially claimed the attack, experts agree that it was almost certainly directed by Al-Qaeda affiliated militant group Al-Shabaab. The deadliest terror attack in Somalia since 2007 highlights the persistent threat of Islamist militant groups and their ability to carry out sophisticated assaults on soft targets. The threat of Al-Shabaab has increased in southern and central Somalia as well as outside the country’s borders. In 2016, Al-Shabaab became the deadliest terror group on the African continent, followed by Boko Haram. While Al-Shabaab has suffered setbacks in recent years, the latest attack in Mogadishu shows that the organisation is resurgent and has the capabilities to carry out acute attacks. The incident also undermines the credibility of Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo)’s government, less than a year after his election.

Al-Shabaab’s enduring presence in Somalia and beyond

Al-Shabaab continues to wage a violent insurgency against the government and US-backed forces in Somalia. Since 2010, the group has suffered territorial losses at the hands of the US coalition and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) but its ability to carry out deadly attacks has not diminished. In September the group attacked a military base outside the capital, killing eight soldiers. The choice of targets (busy public areas, security forces) reflects Al-Shabaab’s attempts to destabilise the government and inflict maximum damage to shock public opinion. While small-scale targeted attacks by Al-Shabaab are common in Somalia, the scale of 14 October bombings is unprecedented. It signals the growing sophistication of Al-Shabaab’s tactics and the failure of the Somali government to address the threat. Al-Shabaab still controls many parts of southern and central Somalia as well as several strategic supply routes.

Al-Shabaab has also extended its influence outside the country and poses a transnational threat in East Africa. The group launched several attacks outside Somalia’s border, notably in Kenya, where it has assaulted security forces and beheaded civilians. Al-Shabaab militants are believed to be present in several other countries in the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. The organisation regularly targets AMISON troops, recently killing 24 soldiers in an ambush attack. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab has limited the expansion of Islamic State and imposed itself as the primary security threat for the population.

Flaws in Somalia’s security strategy

The Somali president has vowed to respond to the threat of Al-Shabaab following the recent attacks. His election in February raised hopes for the security of the country and the stability of the region. The reshuffle of security services and the nomination of new heads of police, military and intelligence signaled the government’s ambition to tackle terrorism. Extra resources were invested in securing Mogadishu. Between February and September, the number of attacks in Somalia decreased.

The latest attack has nonetheless dealt a blow to Farmaajo’s record. Since February, the new government has faced several controversies. The extradition of a commander of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (a separatist group fighting advocating self-determination for Somalis living in Ethiopia) to Ethiopian authorities has sparked accusations of breaches of national and international law and has weakened the president’s ambitions to unify the country. Divisions within Farmaajo’s government over security have also come to light. Two days before the 14 October attack, the Defence Minister and the chief of the armed forces resigned over disagreements on how to combat Al-Shabaab. In late August, the death of 10 civilians in a joint US-Somali security raid against the terror group brought to light the weaknesses of the government’s tactics. Factional violence, as evidenced by recent clashes between rival governmental units, represents an additional challenge for security forces.

The impact of the attack on the Somali government

While the attack could unite Somalis behind President Farmaajo in a show of solidarity, it is also likely to raise further questions about the government’s counterterrorism strategy and embolden the president’s opponents. Divisions between federal states and central government could deepen and Farmaajo’s political opponents could exploit the situation to hold a no-confidence vote.

The government will also face the task of maintaining its international allies’ support. In a statement released after the attack, the US State Department reaffirmed its commitment ‘to stand with the Somali government’. The US administration’s ambivalent stance towards Somalia nonetheless casts doubt over the US’ intentions to increase its support. AMISOM has vowed to assist Somalia after the attacks but continued support will depend on the Somali government’s ability to project credibility and convince its allies that it can address the threat of Al-Shabaab effectively.

This article was originally published on Global Risk Insights, and was written by Cecile Guerin.

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As part of the 69th anniversary of the Armed Forces Day in South Korea, special army soldiers staged a skills demonstration performance at the 2nd Fleet Parade Ground in Pyeongtaek.  (The National/UAE)

On October 1, China kicked off its celebration of the 68th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic with a giant basket of flowers in Tiananmen Square.  A few days earlier in South Korea, military officials displayed their latest weaponry to commemorate the 69th anniversary of the country’s Armed Forces Day, which normally falls on October 1.  Next door in North Korea, things were quiet, despite predictions by some analysts that Pyongyang would specifically choose to spoil their neighbors’ celebrations with another nuclear test.

North Korea’s latest nuclear test, its sixth, took place on September 3 and was widely considered to be its most powerful yet – around 16 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.  The test quickly caught the attention not only of South Korea and China, but of the U.N. Security Council, which unanimously passed a U.S.-drafted resolution on September 11 to impose new sanctions on North Korea.  

China, a U.N. Security Council member, immediately ordered North Korean companies and Chinese joint ventures with North Korean companies operating in its territory to close down by early January.  China also cut oil exports to North Korea, banned textile trade, and closed some bank accounts in China held by North Koreans, froze others, and banned the opening of new accounts.

Yet despite the ostensibly strong actions taken by Beijing, their national day passed peacefully.  Perhaps Beijing’s large shipment of corn (up 4,586 percent in August from a year earlier) and wheat (up 5,405 percent from a year earlier) to North Korea in August helped saved the day.  For Seoul, their approval of $8 million in aid for North Korean infants and pregnant women (just days after the vote on sanctions) may have also saved their Armed Forces Day from provocation.

The recent humanitarian aid granted by Beijing and Seoul may have saved the October 1 celebrations, but the latest round of economic sanctions is intended to be enforced and squeeze Pyongyang into submission.  Unfortunately, this late in the game, Pyongyang is unwilling to give up or bargain away its security blanket of nuclear capability.  Having ruled out both the capitulation of Pyongyang over its nuclear toys and the likelihood of preemptive strikes and the destruction this could entail, some analysts are predicting the regime will collapse under its own weight.  But what are the chances of collapse and how would it occur?  

The prospects for North Korea’s collapse have been mooted before, including an 11-day simulation conducted this same time last year by Wikistrat, a geopolitical crowdsourced consultancy.  By crowdsourcing information from more than 70 of its analysts, Wikistrat simulated various collapse scenarios and mapped out the expected response of major state actors in the region.

The simulation revealed a majority (65%) of Wikistrat analysts predicted the collapse of North Korea would occur within five to ten years.  The top three causes put forth were: 1) Retaliatory Foreign Military Intervention; 2) Kim Dies of Poor Health; and 3) Internal Coup.  While the death of Kim Jong-un ranked high among the causes of North Korea’s fall, most analysts (85%) expected Kim to preside over the country at the time of collapse.

Following a collapse, Wikistrat analysts predicted Moscow may have the most to gain from North Korea’s collapse, with Japan, a U.S. treaty ally, looking to the U.S. for direction.  They also predicted any Chinese action could be preempted by South Korean forces moving rapidly to exert influence, although such unilateral action would be tremendously destabilizing.  As to the securing of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the analysts believe these were best left in the hands of Beijing – provided efforts were done either in cooperation with the U.S. or carried out in such a way that Washington, Tokyo and Seoul were convinced the threat had been eliminated.  Indeed, most Wikistrat analysts argued the U.S. would have little incentive to contest Chinese primacy over most aspects of a North Korean collapse.

But collapse is not a foregone conclusion – the Wikistrat simulation noted Beijing’s strong desire to keep the Korean peninsula divided, maintain stability in North Korea (to prevent the U.S. or South Korea from intervening), and ensure the North Korean regime remains more or less under Chinese tutelage.

Recent humanitarian aid from Seoul and Beijing appear to confirm their preference for the status quo over preemptive actions, and may ward off any further launches during Xi Jinping’s 19th Party Congress starting on October 18.  Yet as North Korea’s leverage grows with each advance of its nuclear program, and if economic sanctions are enforced and enlarged, the ability of Seoul and Beijing to maintain stability on the peninsula will weaken.  Further gaming out of specific outcomes should be undertaken urgently by all concerned powers to consider the worst possible scenarios, and prepare their respective citizens should the inflammatory rhetoric between Washington, Beijing and Pyongyang continue and lead to military action.

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Shipan Kumer Basu with Israeli diplomat Mendi Safadi

In recent times, the Bangladeshi Hindu community has been persecuted immensely by the Awami League government. Due to this horrendous oppression experienced by the Bangladeshi Hindu community, Shipan Kumar Basu, the head of the Hindu Struggle Committee, seeks to topple the Awami League government and has asked for Israeli assistance in doing this: “We will establish diplomatic relations with Israel if they will help us topple the Bangladeshi government. Israel will then be able to establish business ties with Bangladesh. Israel has nothing to lose and on the other hand, there will be another friend.”

Basu claims that there is grounds to overthrow the Awami League government since the removal of the Hindu Chief Justice was unconstitutional, a move that is presently being challenged in court: “Recently, the Hindu community has faced many atrocities committed by the ruling party and their personnel. A young Hindu college boy was kidnapped and his body was found in the main office of the ruling party. A Hindu teacher was raped in front of her husband at work. Her husband, who came to see her at the school, was severely beaten up and locked in a different room. There have been numerous incidents like this in our country after the constitutional amendment crisis.”

The constitutional amendment crisis began when the ruling party in Bangladesh sought to impose the 16th amendment, which the Bangladeshi Chief Justice considered unconstitutional. The 16th amendment empowers the parliament to remove Supreme Court justices if allegations of incapability and misconduct are proven to be true. The Bangladeshi Chief justice believed that an independent judicial body and not the parliament should determine whether allegations of incapability and misconduct are proven to be true since the sham elections of 2014 illustrated that the parliament was not an impartial democratic body.

The ruling Awami League Party was furious with the Chief Justice for this ruling. Since they appointed him, they expected him to be on their side rather than to be an impartial judge. Since then Bangladeshi Chief Justice Surendra Kumer Sinha was Hindu, the entire Hindu community within Bangladesh has been targeted. According to Basu, “The hatred within the Awami League Party against Hindus has risen to new dimensions. As long as the Hindus followed the Awami League like slaves, they were given the status of being second class citizens within the country. Now, when the Hindus have risen up and spoken against the Awami league Party, they have become wild and ferocious against the Hindus and have started to crush them with their feet.”

“An Awami League leader recently threatened in a public rally that if the Hindus don’t vote for him, he will kill all of the Hindus,” Basu related. “Silence is not a solution for this situation. The Hindus are in real trouble in Bangladesh and if drastic action is not taken immediately, all of the Hindus will be compelled to flee to India. The State of Israel has stood up for the minorities of the world that are in distress. In our hour of need, I invite the State of Israel to solemnly stand by the neglected and tortured Hindus of Bangladesh, so they can be relieved of the suppression, torture and crisis they endure in their own country.”

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A Kurdish flag burned in Kirkouk on October 16 2017 – STRINGER/REUTERS

The Economist published a piece this week on the actions by Iraqi forces against Kurdish interests in the Kurdish region of Iraq after a referendum for independence from Iraq took place recently. With dwindling ISIS control of territory in Iraq and Syria, the interests of those who have allied themselves with Iran, Saudi interests and US interests have already begun the rush to secure territory for a future Cold War. While combat between the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces was limited in the recent move by Iraq’s government to secure economic and strategic interests in the Kurdish region, actions by the pro-Iranian government in Baghdad seems to be working in conjunction with Iraq’s neighbours to isolate and nullify Kurdish forces and interests in the Kurdish part of Iraq.

Kurdish forces and its people have been the tip of the spear in many ways against ISIS and extremism in the region, despite getting little physical help early on and limited help in combatting extremism. The question of Kurdish independence has always existed, but with independent Kurdish forces taking on the role the Iraqi Army fled from a few years ago in their region, the Kurds are in the strongest position they have had in a long time to defend independence if they wished to enforce their claim. Intellectuals like Bernard-Henri Levy wish for the world to focus on those that have helped the world, and their role in this conflict has set them apart distinctively in human history. With Kurdish Peshmerga fighting massive odds against ISIS forces and being the government that took steps to protect minority communities from genocide, it seems as if fairness for Kurds were to take place, their destiny should be theirs to determine as their safety has been theirs to secure since 2014.

The Economist author points out that the attack on the Kurds may have to do with their faith being different than that of Iran and their allies in Baghdad’s government. While that is the case to some degree, the actions taken against them in the last few years were done by those of a different culture as opposed to a different perspective on faith. The view that the Kurdish part of Iraq is more liberally focused and their protection of different faiths and minority cultures also need to be considered in assessing the reasons why Kurds seem to be the target of everyone in the region in the future post-ISIS era. A miscalculation of divisions in the region goes further in error, as if the Sunni-Shi’a divide is going to be the next major catalyst in endless wars in the region, the Sunni Arabs will be put into a position of having to constantly defend themselves being in a weaker position in their native communities. An expansion of conflict seems to signal that the end of one war is the beginning to the next major war. With a lack of understanding of the region, it seems as if the Kurdish Peshmerga will have to also continually defend their communities in the future as well.

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   Japan Coast Guard security team members display tracking and capture drills in October 2016  (Kazuhiro Nogi/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The sovereignty of the South China Sea has been hotly debated in recent years among China and the littoral nations (especially the Philippines and Vietnam).  Beijing lays claim to some 90 percent of the South China Sea under its infamous “nine-dash line” which was first published as an eleven-dash line by Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist government of the Republic of China (ROC/Taiwan) in 1947.

Other littoral states lay claim to waters within their exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends no more than 200 nautical miles from their shores, as prescribed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.  In July 2016, an arbitral tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled China’s claim under the nine-dash line had no legal basis.  Beijing refused to accept the ruling, and maintains their claim not only over the waters of the South China Sea, but the considerable oil and gas and mineral resources that lie below, estimated at some 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas rated as proved or probable reserves by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  While much of the attention focuses on oil and gas drilling rights, another resource is often overlooked, that of fish.

Late last month, two Vietnamese fishermen were killed after a Philippine coast guard vessel opened fire on their boat.  The boat was carrying crew members hailing from the south-central Vietnamese province of Phu Yen.  According to a Filipino regional military spokesman, six Vietnamese fishing boats were fishing illegally some 30 nautical miles off the northern coastal town of Bolinao in the Philippines on September 22.  After the Philippine coast guard initiated pursuit, one of the Vietnamese ships turned to ram the front of the coast guard boat, at which point the Philippine coast guard opened fire.  Five Vietnamese fishermen were subsequently arrested.

The latest incident is not the first – in recent years fishing boats have witnessed increasing aggression over contested fishing rights.  In 2013, a Taiwanese fisherman was killed by a Filipino coast guard crew after allegedly sailing into Philippine waters.  And in March 2016, a Chinese coast guard vessel came to the rescue of a Chinese fishing boat caught fishing some 4 kilometres off Indonesia’s Natuna island chain.  As the Chinese fishing boat was being towed away by the Indonesian vessel, a Chinese coast guard vessel came to the rescue and rammed the Chinese fishing boat, eventually prying it free.  Such incidents as the above are becoming more common, as Chinese President Xi Jinping asserts China’s claims over “traditional fishing grounds” as part of his Great Rejuvenation project, and fishermen from many countries venture farther away from their shores to chase a dwindling catch.

Indeed, some scholars question when the disputes will end.  Johan Bergenas argues in his recent article The Next Resource War May Be Over Illegal Fishing. Is the U.S. Ready? that “major powers are ignoring the international laws and norms that guide the harvesting of fish. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, every fifth fish is caught illegally. As a result, countries have begun using military force to protect what they believe to be critical national assets. This is a recipe for disaster, with the potential to give rise to another entry on the long list of wars fought over natural resources.”

Both Vietnam and the Philippines are conducting investigations into the death of the two Vietnamese fishermen and hope to announce the results shortly.  The 2013 killing of the Taiwanese fisherman resulted in Taipei recalling its envoy to Manila and suspending any hiring of Filipino workers, yet the incident was confined to diplomatic and commercial interests – no military action was taken.

Indeed, it is difficult to imagine nations going to war over their fishermen, especially those who are fishing in waters not their own.  Hopefully, other nations will join Jakarta’s lead in tracking their own fishing boats.  But with fishermen (some armed) sailing farther and farther away (some with government subsidies) from their own shores, and increased militarization of the Paracel and Spratly island chains by Beijing, Hanoi and Manila, a single shot could spark a fishing war.

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After Kurdistan held a referendum for independence, the US administration has come out against it, stressing that they support a “united, democratic and prosperous Iraq.” The problem with this position is that the present Iraq is anything but united, democratic and prosperous. To the contrary, it is an undemocratic failed state on the verge of collapsing that is increasingly divided along sectarian lines and commits massive human rights abuses on a daily basis. Since the Kurds are opposed to this and sought to separate from Iraq as a result, the central government in Baghdad is presently uniting together with Iran and Turkey against Kurdistan’s citizens. They recently held a joint military exercise along Kurdistan’s border together with Iran and Turkey.

It is critical to note that the present Iraqi government is nothing more than a proxy regime for Iran, and Iran is threatening the Kurds on a daily basis. Iran is opposed to Kurdistan’s independence for it is a direct threat to the Shia Crescent and Iran’s colonial ambitions in the Middle East region. With Iraqi oil, Iran is number one in oil. Without Iraqi oil, OPEC ranks Iran as number 3. This means that if they control Iraq, they will have one third of the world’s energy resources in their hands.

Syrian Kurdish dissident Sherkoh Abbas illustrated that Iranian influence in Iraq creates a number of problems for Western countries: “They can increase the price of oil and harm the European and American economies especially in times of need. Also when economies are trying to get out of recession, they can put them back in recession. It is a threat to the international community. They can promote Iranian terrorism around the world. They can intimidate countries that make deals with them. They can black-mail and throw their weight around.” Abbas warned that if Iran also gets access to the Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq, the situation can potentially return to what it was in the 1970’s, with people waiting miles in line to get gas due to Iranian threats.

The only way to prevent this threat from coming into fruition is to support an independent Kurdistan. The Kurds will have an open oil policy and won’t use their resources to threaten other countries. Under the KRG leadership, the Kurds have nationalized their oil, have instituted a free market economy and have managed to sell it to Turkey. Kurdistan is now the second biggest market for Turkish investment and many Turkish companies are based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani has also used the oil to build relationships with other countries as well. The Kurds have utilized this resource in order to build the fundamentals of a state. They have not used their resources to threaten others. Due to the clean oil the Kurds provide, many major oil companies prefer to do business in Kurdistan rather than to work in other areas of Iraq. If the Kurds are granted independence, the threats posed by Iran gaining access to much oil can be significantly reduced.

Nevertheless, despite this reality, the US has remained silent in the face of Iranian threats against Kurdistan in addition to opposing Kurdistan’s referendum. For the first time, democratic countries and non-democratic countries are uniting against Kurdistan’s democratic right, which is the referendum. The US has not done anything to help the people who fight ISIS alone. Right now, only the oil and business trade protects them. If the US continues to keep silent, then Iran will win the game. As a result, the Kurds are angry with American policy makers for they seek American protection. An anonymous Kurdish source stressed: “The US has not done anything for us. Russia is better than the US for they changed their policy towards Kurdistan. They respect the decision of the Kurdish people and they asked Turkey not to put sanctions on us. They support an oil pipeline from Kurdistan to Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea. If Turkey decides to block the pipeline, then Russia is working to help us use Syria. If the US does not change policy, the Kurds will become pro-Russia. The US will lose if this happens. Right now, it is not in our interest for we want the US to help us and not Russia.” However, if the Kurds are pushed into a corner, they may have to move away from America.

As Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani proclaimed, “Once again, we reiterate our willingness to engage in serious dialogue and we are against resorting to violence in order to address disagreements. All standing issues should be dealt with through negotiations and peaceful means. Our calls for dialogue and negotiations must not be answered with threats, amassing forces and preparations for war.”

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It is easy to brush off North Korea’s behavior as irrational, but the fact that the Kim regime consolidated and has maintained power since 1948 says otherwise. If North Korea was truly an irrational actor, it would not have been able to survive this long. And to have maintained a three generation dictatorship while being viewed very poorly by the majority of the international community is impressive to say the least. The Kim family, specifically Kim Il-sung, has always acted in a way to best meet their grand strategic goals. The two most important being the consolidation of national power in the Kim family and the international recognition of North Korea. In order to meet those goals they had to prevent any internal or external challenge to their leadership.

To face the internal threat, Kim Il-sung created the modern cult of personality and their militaristic culture. North Korea is thought of as an atheist state that does not tolerate religion, but this is not the case. They want the people to worship the Kim family and nothing else. Those who do not give the Kim family the proper respect can expect to receive punishment and will have a poor quality of life, even by North Korean standards. This worshipping of the dear leader allows the Kims to stop any internal challenge to their dictatorship. Their subjects consist of those who are either brainwashed hardliners in favor of the regime or those who pretend to be out of fear. Any potential insurgency or foreign powers attempting to foment resistance is stopped because no citizen would dare challenge the government. We can further see this strategy of consolidating power in Kim Jong-Il’s “military first” policy. According to CNN in 2015 North Korea had 1.1 million active soldiers and an additional 7.7 million in reserves. This could be seen as an act of deterrence. Creating such a militaristic society ensures that anyone who challenges the regime will suffer high costs.

The second part of their grand strategy is the international community’s recognition of their regime. I think it would be hard to argue that they have not achieved this goal. Kim Jong-un’s current regime is probably more repressive of its people and more internationally isolated than Saddam’s Iraq. They even have the weapons the U.S. wrongly accused Iraq of having in 2003. However, the U.S. refrains from intervening in North Korea even though our military is far superior. The obvious reason to this is China and the Soviet Union. The support of these two powers throughout the years has allowed North Korea to survive this long. However, the relationship between these countries has not been all sunshine and butterflies. North Korea knows that it can’t rely on China to protect them forever, which is why their nuclear program is so important to them. They continually engage in acts of violence and make threats so that they are not forgotten and are always taken seriously (at least as a threat).

North Korea is a belligerent nation doing everything in its power to ensure the continuation of the regime. Their economy is in shambles, they suffer from famine, and there are no signs they are undertaking measures to put their country on a productive path. To do so would run counter to everything they want to achieve. All their citizens are theirs to torment if it means the Kim family remains in power. I have heard some argue that the economic sanctions placed on North Korea do nothing but hurt the people and serve as propaganda tools for the Kims. I would take the realist approach and say that there is no way to help the North Korean people without causing suffering on a much larger scale. So I would argue for continued sanctions and more economic isolation of North Korea. At the same time I would encourage constant dialogue with them. Always letting them know that positive engagement with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan means sanction relief, while continued hostile acts leads to tougher sanctions and further detriment to their nation. Maintaining this balance and given time, I believe the Kim family will have no choice but to look for a way to make economic reforms without losing power. This could lead to a lessening of hostilities, but unfortunately I can’t see any future where the Kim’s aren’t in power that didn’t come at a very high cost.

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This fall, two of the EU’s biggest neighbors decided to celebrate the new school year with a slew of retrograde education policies. Ukraine sparked off a minor diplomatic crisis on Europe’s eastern frontier after Kiev unveiled politically charged plans to prevent minority-language students from learning in their native tongues. Earlier, Turkey drew strong international condemnation by imposing restrictions on school curricula and by requiring students in the ever-growing pool of religious academies to learn about the concept of jihad. Making matters worse, a lack of funding and a stilted bureaucracy have bogged down the very body supposed to oversee cross-border educational issues, UNESCO. With populism on the rise from West to East and with nations like the US more politically polarized than ever, these developments are a tocsin.

Both Ukraine and Turkey seem to have missed the memo that education is meant to bridge divides, not deepen them. Their new laws threaten to create splits not only among local communities, but also in nations beyond these countries’ borders. In Ukraine’s case, the government’s plans to forbid some 400,000 students who are currently receiving their entire schooling in a minority language – mainly Russian – has provoked severe criticism not only from Moscow, as expected, but also from Hungary, Romania, and other countries whose nationals would be affected by the law. The government has called it a necessary law to ensure that all students develop a working knowledge of the country’s majority language.

Critics have called Kiev’s move a divisive provocation at a time when the government should be promoting bilingualism – and focusing on deeper educational reforms. The most furious response to the legislation came from Budapest, where Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed Kiev had “stabbed Hungary in the back” and threatened that the government would bar Ukraine’s efforts to further integrate with the EU. Additionally, in an awkward turn of events for Brussels, the incident has firmly placed the Visegrad Group, along with Romania, Greece, and Moldova, on the same side as Russia in this dispute – a first.

The politicization of education is arguably far worse in Turkey. Since last year’s failed coup, the public school system has emerged as a key battlefield in the government’s attempt to squash dissent. This September, students went back to school with a contentious new curriculum that expunged the theory of evolution and introduced the concept of jihad. Critics called the new law a blow to secular education at a time when attendance at imam hitap schools, used to train Muslim preachers, has soared from 60,000 in 2002 to more than 1.1 million today.

To be fair, during its first 10 years in power, the ruling AK party oversaw impressive improvements in the national education system. Now, however, progress has started to backtrack, with Turkey scoring second to last among all member states in the OECD’s latest Program for International Student Assessment (PISA). Parents cite issues of inept teachers, overcrowded classrooms, and inadequate language courses. The fact that more than 30,000 teachers have been fired for allegedly holding dissident sentiments hasn’t helped. The government’s latest set of legislation has now only further divided the nation between religious and secular factions – and isolated the entire country.

Meanwhile, although most European countries continue to score highly on core educational competencies, the state of public education – and growing national polarization – in the US reminds us that such a state of affairs is by no means a given. The American public school system already delivers abysmal results for students who live in the poorest districts. The Trump administration seems bent on dismantling Obama’s education legacy, with Betesy DeVos handing favors to for-profit universities and removing protections for transgender students rather than focusing on more meaningful reforms.

With even the US educational system threatened by regressive political agendas, the role of UNESCO in promoting learning is more important than ever. However, for the past eight years, the outgoing director general, Irina Bokova, has presided over an organization crippled by lack of funds, an ossified administration, and vehement disputes among its member states. UNESCO tumbled into its “worst ever financial situation” in 2011, when the US pulled finding – which had made up 22% of the agency’s budget – over the body’s decision to grant membership to Palestine. Seven years later, UNESCO still lacks a predictable budget and continues to be involved in the political turbulence of the Middle East and other hotspots.

At the very least, one of the contenders to take over the helm at UNESCO, former French Minister of Culture Audrey Azoulay, has put education at the center of her platform, emphasizing that learning is foremost a tool to break down silos and expand people’s minds – not to politicize and divide. Acknowledging the difficulties of steering UNESCO at a time of disinterest from the US, she has highlighted that it is in the interest of Americans – and other nations – to promote education globally as the best way to counter radicalization.

As the agency’s motto states, the best way to prevent conflict is to construct the “defenses of peace in the hearts of men.” It will be for the future UNESCO director to remind Ukraine and Turkey of this motto – that schools are not meant to be an incubator for political division but a place for open engagement.

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