Diplomacy & Crisis News

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister went up to the highest peak on Mount Hermon on December 17. This area of the mountain overlooks Lebanon, southern Syria, and Israel. It is just over 2,800 meters high. The peak of the mountain used to be occupied by a Syrian army post, which looked down over Israeli posts several miles away. It’s an important strategic site, and Israel knows this. For this reason, the Israel Defense Forces sent forces up to the peak as the Syrian regime evaporated on December 8. Laid out below them in Syria is a country at a crossroads. What comes next will profoundly affect the region, U.S. policy, Israel, and many other countries.

The fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime was a symbolic moment. Syria was once one of Israel’s most fearsome foes. Under Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, the Syrian army was well-equipped with modern Soviet-supplied tanks and warplanes. It attacked Israel in 1973, crossing part of the Golan Heights that can be seen from Mount Hermon. It almost succeeded in handing Israel a major setback. Forty years later, in 2013, Assad found his regime besieged by rebels. However, he survived and was able to return to control part of Syria with the aid of Russia and Iran. It didn’t end up as planned, though. He was pushed out of power in a blitzkrieg-like offensive by a Syrian opposition group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on December 8.

I was in the Golan Heights that day, looking into Syria from the Israeli side of the line. There is a lot at stake in the country today. Syria is at a crossroads, and so is the region. The lesson of the Syrian Civil War is that what happens in Syria does not only matter to Syria or just its neighbors. For instance, the civil war helped provide fuel for ISIS and its invasion of Iraq in June 2014. That led to the genocide of Yazidis in Iraq in August 2014 and the United States and allied intervention against ISIS. Eventually, the anti-ISIS coalition grew to over seventy countries. To defeat ISIS, the United States helped the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq. In Syria, the United States partnered with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group in eastern Syria that is primarily rooted in the Kurdish region of Syria.

Today, the Kurdish minority in Syria faces new threats from Turkey, whose proxies have attacked their cities in the north. This is an odd situation because the SDF is partnered with the United States, and Turkey is a NATO ally. One would think that the United States could patch things up and forge a deal between the SDF and Turkey. However, Ankara is resolute to use the Syrian proxies it has recruited, called the Syrian National Army, to fight the SDF. Ankara claims the SDF is linked to the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it views as terrorists.

This situation presents a dilemma in Syria policy for the United States and Turkey. The U.S. role in eastern Syria was highly successful. With only a handful of troops, ISIS was largely defeated by 2019. However, this military success never translated into political engagement with the SDF and Syria. This is because U.S. diplomats generally viewed the partnership with the SDF as temporary, tactical, and transactional. They did not see a way forward for this group in terms of playing a role in the future government of Syria. That has meant a missed opportunity to leverage the U.S. role.

This doesn’t mean things cannot be salvaged. In southern Syria, the United States has a garrison at Al-Tanf. This is a base seemingly in the middle of nowhere, located in Syria near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. The United States helped train a Syrian rebel group for more than half a decade. The group, now called the Syrian Free Army (not to be confused with the Free Syrian Army), helped topple Assad by marching toward Palmyra on December 7. It’s possible that this group might help provide security in parts of the Syrian desert between Homs, Damascus, and Albukamal on the Iraqi border. However, the new Syrian government of Ahmed Sharaa, whose HTS group is a U.S.-designated terrorist group, has demanded that armed groups in Syria disband and form a new army.

Where does all this leave us? The United States has a key role in eastern Syria, but it is at risk if Turkey chooses to invade and fight the SDF. There are thousands of ISIS detainees being held in eastern Syria. Any fighting in the east could jeopardize the anti-ISIS mission. ISIS still has many cells in the Syrian desert and has by no means disappeared.

Then there is southern Syria. The U.S.-backed group in Tanf is an important and possible avenue to discuss security arrangements with the new rulers in Damascus. Moreover, the Israelis, who now have an outpost on the Hermon peak, have advanced some forces into a buffer zone next to the Golan Heights into villages that the Syrian regime once controlled.

On December 11, the head of U.S. Central Command, General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, arrived in Israel. His visit reaffirmed close relations between Central Command and the Israel Defense Forces. Israel became part of the Central Command area of operations at the end of the first Trump administration, a significant move that came about in the wake of the Abraham Accords and Israel’s closer ties with some Arab nations. What that means is that the U.S. command that plays a key role in places like Iraq and Syria now consults closely with Israel.

For its part, Israel used the days after Assad’s fall to carry out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against former Syrian military assets, such as warplanes and munitions depots. This eviscerated many potential threats. It is a lesson learned from the fall of the Gadafi regime. If a regime with a lot of guns and tanks falls, those weapons will end up flooding the region and destabilizing countries. With the Middle East already suffering a year of war in Gaza and Lebanon, and with Iranian-backed groups destabilizing Yemen and Iraq, it’s good Assad’s old military assets have been vaporized. The big question is if the new Syrian government can bring some stability to Syria.

This is now the crossroads. Can Damascus sort things out in eastern Syria, and can Washington make sure it doesn’t miss an opportunity to leverage a decade of work in Syria with the SDF and other groups? Other countries are making the pilgrimage to Damascus to meet the new rulers. Turkey, Qatar, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and the EU seem ready to work with the new regime. The United States should be ready to utilize its partners in Syria and work with its friends in the region to make the most of this new reality. 

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Image: Mohammad Bash / Shutterstock.com. 

Les livres de Mariana Enríquez paraissent en France dans le désordre. Ses premières nouvelles publiées en 2009 en espagnol viennent d'être traduites alors que deux de ses œuvres nettement plus récentes l'avaient déjà été. Cela ne serait pas pour déplaire à cette auteure argentine qui aime dilater le temps (...) / Littérature, Argentine - 2023/05

Jusqu'alors totalement inconnu des têtes pensantes de la diplomatie, le concept d'Indo-Pacifique a fait une entrée en fanfare dans le monde des relations internationales au milieu des années 2000. Il outille désormais toutes les chancelleries. Certaines sont alignées sur la doctrine des États-Unis ; (...) / Chine, Pacifique, Asie, France, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Stratégie, Géopolitique - 2023/05

U.S.-Chinese tensions may rise, but Washington’s isolationism will help Beijing.

A secure peace will depend on economic revitalization.

Team Trump is scrambling to control the fallout from Elon Musk almost singlehandedly terminating a stopgap spending bill that would have ensured the federal government is funded through March 14. The problem is twofold. One is that the government may soon shutter, leaving House Speaker Mike Johnson with essentially no exit from the debacle. The other is that Musk is starting to eclipse President-elect Donald Trump.

Instead of Trump heading into his second term as Mr. Big, it increasingly looks like Musk is calling the shots. “This bill should not pass,” Musk declared. It didn’t. The result is political mayhem. Sen. Rand Paul is suggesting that Musk should replace Johnson as House speaker. So is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Writing in Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall observed, “Musk is erratic, volatile, impulsive, mercurial. He introduces a huge source of unpredictability and chaos into the presidency that for once Trump doesn’t control. See it clearly: Musk did this. Trump thrives on chaos, but his chaos. Not someone else’s chaos.”

Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has essentially been AWOL over the past several weeks. It appears that Musk has cemented the bromance between himself and Trump. He’s everywhere. He goes to the Notre Dame with Trump. He goes to the Army-Navy game with Trump. He goes to dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. The only question is where he does not go.

Now Trump is moving to quash the notion that he’s in some kind of co-presidency with Musk, a notion that Gerald Ford once proposed to Ronald Reagan in 1980, who promptly rejected the notion. Instead, the Trump campaign released a statement to Business Insider claiming that Trump remains in command: “As soon as President Trump released his official stance on the CR, Republicans on Capitol Hill echoed his point of view,” Leavitt told it. “President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. Full stop.”

However, the more the Trump campaign feels compelled to deny the claim, the more plausible it will become. For their part, Democrats are playing up the idea that Musk is the true president-elect. Rep. Rosa DeLauro issued a fact sheet showing what Elon’s move to kill disaster supplemental aid will cost each state. Others are referring to “President-elect Musk.” “He’s president and Trump is now vice president,” stated Rep. Jim McGovern.

Musk himself says that he is simply an upstanding patriot who seeks to bring important matters to the incoming administration’s attention.

For Trump, who has vowed to upend the federal government, torpedoing the bill offered an opportunity to flex his political muscles even before he officially becomes president. President Joe Biden is nowhere in sight. Trump dominates.

But in dominating the debate, he risks taking responsibility for a government shutdown, one largely engineered by his buddy Musk. At some point, there may be a collision between Trump and Musk. After all, if the shutdown isn’t resolved by January 6, Congress won’t be able to certify his election as president.

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.

Image: Hadrian / Shutterstock.com

There is a short window for President Trump and Congress to reassert U.S. competitiveness on artificial intelligence (AI) and undercut China’s strategy before it cements its economic and geopolitical influence for a generation to come. Beijing and Washington are already in an AI race with the highest stakes for our economic and national security. Thankfully, innovation is in America’s strong suit. Open-source AI is how the United States can compete with China in both cost and capability. President Trump and his national security team, led by Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), can embrace the competitive advantages of open innovation so that America will unquestionably win the AI contest with Beijing.

China is on pace to spend more than $1.4 trillion by 2030 in its strategy to become the world leader in AI and other emergent technologies. Additionally, it is releasing AI models that are already competitive with the best American models. In November, the Chinese company Alibaba released its latest AI model, “Qwen,” which beat the best U.S. models in several performance benchmarks. According to CNBC, Alibaba’s models have been downloaded 40 million times since their initial release last year. 

Open sourcing is an explicit part of China’s Global AI Governance Initiative. If China is allowed to set global AI standards, the CCP’s long history of censorship will be exported around the world. In one concerning example, Chinese generative AI chatbots censor topics by refusing to respond to questions about Tiananmen Square or falsely claiming that Taiwan is part of China.

Recent administrations have tried and failed to keep advanced chips needed to develop powerful AI out of the hands of Chinese companies. Still, a committed adversary like China will always seek advantage where possible. Chinese companies have reportedly used U.S. cloud providers to get around bans on accessing chips and are hiring AI teams in the United States, in part to access these chips within our borders and evade controls.

There are four core elements to a successful open-source AI strategy that President Trump and Congress can implement.

First, the Trump administration should encourage federal agencies and the public sector to adopt freely available open-source models in their AI tools and products, or at least not prefer proprietary or closed models over open-source ones.

Second, America must be prepared to push back on other countries that are seeking to punish American innovation through restrictions that would target U.S. models while protecting their domestic ones.

Third, Congress must step up by pre-empting any state laws with federal policies or legislation so that the United States doesn’t end up with a patchwork of incompatible state laws that limit American innovation. This would stop future harmful, anti-innovation bills, like California’s SB1047, which was fortunately vetoed this Fall before it could be enacted.

Fourth and finally, leaders in Washington should avoid placing export controls on generative AI, which would prevent U.S. companies from releasing open-source models.

U.S. restrictions on open-source models will only disadvantage the United States and its allies while doing nothing to slow China’s momentum. Access to the latest AI developments and models is critical for our national security. The U.S. military and Intelligence Community are already using U.S. open-source AI to gain tactical and strategic decision advantages. Large language models can identify patterns within source intelligence reporting, accelerate the speed and accuracy of battlefield decisions, and expose terrorist financing or identify cyber vulnerabilities before attacks happen. Slowing down our advances in this technology is not an option.

Instead, the United States should focus on holding off China’s AI advancements by restricting its access to the chips and computing power needed to train AI models. An AI researcher noted that China’s latest models show that it has the raw data and talent to train large models, but it will need more specialized technology and chips to solidify its lead at the top.

To win the tech race, America must lead in both open and closed-source AI models. Each approach has its unique advantages, but to beat China, we need to foster both. Some argue that closed models are more secure, but that’s not the case. Every year, China steals more than $500 billion in trade and tech secrets from the United States, and well-resourced states like China can easily gain access to closed-source models. 

“Closed” doesn’t mean secure, and proprietary AI models could easily end up in Chinese hands through IP theft, insider attacks, or other means. Open-source AI has several benefits for the United States and our allies because it makes us more competitive in the global economy through open-source models, making AI technology more accessible—especially for smaller developers and researchers who are challenging the status quo.

Open source also fosters economic growth because it drives competition, spurs homegrown innovation, and increases consumer choice. Open source can also make products safer because more eyes can mean fewer faults: a wide community is providing ongoing feedback and scrutiny, which isn’t possible when a company makes their AI proprietary through selling access.

As history has demonstrated, open-source technology typically becomes the global standard over the closed alternative. AI will be no different. The AI standard that emerges will become embedded in the financial, e-commerce, infrastructure, manufacturing, and communications systems of the future. The domains and industries AI affects are too consequential for the United States to ever fall behind an adversary, including China. The incoming Trump administration is positioned to ensure the United States leads on this front for decades to come.

Alexander B. Gray served as deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff of the White House National Security Council (2019-21) and special assistant to the president for the defense industrial base (2017-18).

Image: Billion Photos / Shutterstock.com. 

Over the last 20 years, America has failed in both war and peace. The world is on fire and is waiting for President Donald Trump to fulfill his promise to bring about a ceasefire in the war and, ultimately, broker a peace agreement. The war in Ukraine presents itself as both a challenge to Trump and, for the first time since the end of the Korean War, an opportunity for America to win the war by winning the peace.

To envision a successful future, we must look to learn from the past. The reconstruction of Japan after World War II, the reconstruction of South Korea after the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, and the reconstruction of Germany provide lessons and perspectives to draw upon. All three nations experienced economic and security renewals, which not only had national benefits but also enhanced the United States in terms of both economics and security.

This same opportunity exists today for the people of Ukraine and for the United States. The coming Ukraine economic miracle and recovery will reshape the Eurasian continent. Ukraine will become a lighthouse for innovation, resilience, and future-oriented development. Nothing brings two nations together more than strong commercial ties. Economic entanglement between the United States and Ukraine will bring prosperity to both.

Critical mineral security and development will be a cornerstone of this success. Fast-tracking the extraction and processing of Ukraine’s vast mineral resources is key. Securing the multi-trillion dollars of critical minerals in Ukraine is a vital national interest of the United States.

Civil nuclear power will provide stable, clean energy for the reindustrialization of Ukraine. Robust capacity is needed to drive the coming economic renaissance. Energy security is foundational to sovereignty and success.

Likewise, land restoration is essential. Unexploded ordnance and other ground contamination must be mitigated. Ukraine has always been the breadbasket of the world. Along with Europe, much of the African continent relies on Ukraine’s agricultural resilience and success. Clean-up will put people to work quickly and kick-start agricultural development.

Redesigning the defense industrial base with an eye to implementing new battlefield technologies and proven legacy systems is crucial to Ukraine’s security. A holistic integration of command, control, communications, computer systems, manufacturing, and innovation will create a “live” and responsive system to face all adversaries and new technologies.

World-class data systems will be needed to shoulder the incoming needs. This includes robust fiber rings, server capacity, and AI infrastructure. This should be built at overcapacity and leverage new technologies to provide all stakeholders with scalable information systems.

There is an incredible opportunity for the United States and Ukraine to develop, test, and deploy revolutionary AI infrastructure. Small modular reactors, providing nuclear-powered data centers, offer a new physics-based approach versus legacy server design. That, combined with the aforementioned data network capacity, will yield game-changing results.

A Silicon Valley-type citadel of innovation will be another key driver. This means harnessing the deep intellectual capacity of the Ukrainian people as world leaders in technological innovation.

Restructuring government for economic success, security success, and a secure and resilient democracy will be key to achieving all of these long-term goals.

Lastly, the story of Ukraine must be told, including why Ukraine matters and why a strong partnership with the United States matters. The values of the Ukrainian people mirror our own, and their resilience can provide hope and vision, not just for their people but for our nation as well.

David Ayer is a writer, director, and producer whose films include Fury, End of Watch, and Beekeeper. A former Navy Submariner, David has an abiding interest in global messaging and fresh ways to tell stories.

RDML (Ret.) Michael Hewitt, U.S. Navy, is co-founder and CEO of IP3 Corporation and CEO of Allied Nuclear Partners. IP3 creates thriving, peaceful environments in critical world markets through the development of sustainable energy and security infrastructure via public/private initiatives and industry-led partnerships.

Image: Seneline / Shutterstock.com

Trump, tariffs, and the coming transformation of global commerce.

La nouvelle présidente du Mexique ne doit pas seulement son élection à la popularité historique de son prédécesseur. Son succès se comprend aussi par le long travail de proximité réalisé par la gauche à Mexico auprès, ou au sein, des associations revendicatives. / Mexique, Élections - (...) / Mexique, Élections - 2024/12

Le 1er octobre 2024, M. Andrés Manuel López Obrador a quitté le pouvoir. L'initiateur de la « quatrième transformation » est devenu l'une des figures les plus populaires de l'histoire de son pays. Certaines de ses politiques ont toutefois déçu, et font partie de l'héritage transmis à la nouvelle (...) / Mexique, Élections, Politique, Personnalités - 2024/12

M. Donald Trump ne revient pas à la Maison Blanche tel un homme seul débarquant sur la scène politique sans trop savoir où il va. Huit ans après sa première victoire, sa base électorale est plus large, sa majorité parlementaire plus assurée. Et il s'est entouré d'une équipe de fidèles qui ne chercheront (...) / États-Unis, Élections, Personnalités, Politique - 2024/12

Ne rien méconnaître de la réalité sociale que décrit un film implique-t-il qu'il faille s'en détourner ? Sauf à ignorer le rôle politique de la mise en chair du savoir, non. Comme le suggère le visionnage de « L'Histoire de Souleymane ». - (...) - 2024/12

Se lever, avaler un café, s'engouffrer dans une voiture, un métro ou un train. Embaucher, faire sa journée, rentrer, recommencer… Pourquoi ? Pour qui ? Et si le désarroi que suscite le travail traduisait en réalité un espoir ? Celui d'une activité humaine émancipatrice. / Travail, Santé - (...) / Travail, Santé - 2024/12

En être privé, une malédiction ; en avoir, trop souvent un supplice quand le travail donne le sentiment de se noyer dans un océan de tâches abrutissantes, surnuméraires, pénibles, dépourvues de sens. Depuis les années 1980, les gouvernants français contribuent à faire du salariat une expérience de (...) / Inégalités, Travail, Protection sociale, Politique, Entreprise - 2024/12

Le 20 novembre, la recrudescence des violences perpétrées par les gangs et les forces de l'ordre contraint Médecins sans frontières (MSF) à suspendre ses activités dans la zone métropolitaine de Port-au-Prince. À peine arrivée en Haïti, la Mission multinationale d'appui à la sécurité, pilotée par le (...) / Haïti, Kenya, Conflit - 2024/12

Longtemps marginal dans l'Hexagone, l'évangélisme y est aujourd'hui bien plus présent. Nourri par plusieurs influences, notamment celle des missionnaires anglo-saxons mais aussi celle de fidèles originaires d'Afrique subsaharienne, ce courant du protestantisme se structure peu à peu. Plusieurs de (...) / Religion - 2024/12

Russian ICBM and IRBM Missile Systems

The War in Ukraine has done more to deplete Cold War military stockpiles than any other event during and since the Cold War, including weather and rust. The dwindling numbers of tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces litter the woods and fields of Ukraine, being disabled and destroyed by new simple drones and old artillery shells. If the war will not end by negotiation and diplomacy, it will likely be mired in more bloodshed from using ally equipment and a small number of newly made modern equipment, still costing many more lives than either side is willing to admit. With conventional land forces and sea forces reaching their limits, air forces being deterred by modern air defense systems, and missile systems being altered for purposes they are not designed for, the remaining strength of Russian forces are still preserved in their long range tactical missile forces.

A recent strike by an unconfirmed ballistic missile system by Russian forces in Ukraine appeared to use a type of SS-27 or SS-29 ICBM in the strike. While it was not a nuclear armed version of those types of missiles, it performed as a Multiple Launch Warhead missile, or MIRV, hitting the target with multiple warheads from one missile system. While it appears to be a smaller RS-26 Rubezh type Regional ranged missile version, or IRBM, it was likely one based on the SS-27 MIRV type. This non-nuclear version was altered to send a message to Ukraine’s allies without escalating tensions past a point of no return by using nuclear warheads in the field.

The rationale Russia used in deploying the SS-27 type missile was a response to ever increasing allowances by Ukraine’s allies in using longer range artillery against targets in Russia. Russian air defenses do not seem capable of stopping many of these munitions, and Russia has suffered internal losses due to these systems. Russia’s intact long range ballistic missile forces have rarely been used in a war, and is a fully equipped nuclear deterrent maintained over generations. With few options available with conventional arms, and a message of strength wanted to be demonstrated by Russia, the mystery ballistic missile has been re-introduced onto the battlefield. While inventory and a show of strength enabled the use of the SS-27 variant, diplomacy is likely still the best option by both sides over the future use of any ballistic IRBM systems.

New conflicts in the Middle East might bring another situation where these regional missiles may be used by Russia. With Russia’s most important ally in the Middle East being on their last legs recently, Russia may decide to use whatever systems they have left in helping maintain their ally’s regime. In the most recent scenario, the opposing forces do not have any modern systems to respond to Russia, and it is likely the case that adversaries in the Middle East may ignore the use of such weapons in certain circumstance as long as it is not nuclear armed, and does not create a big disadvantage to the US or their allies in the region. Diplomacy may make for strange bedfellows, and could alter the power dynamic in the region in ways previously unheard of due to the recent crisis. Diplomacy in one area may also provide the opportunity to end the conflict in Ukraine, and refocus on common threats to both the East and West. Only time will tell, but these days things seem to always escalate quickly and unpredictably.

La France vient d'admettre sa responsabilité dans l'assassinat, en mars 1957, du chef indépendantiste Larbi Ben M'hidi lors de la bataille d'Alger. Si cette reconnaissance lève le voile sur certains non-dits de la guerre d'Algérie, il reste aussi à explorer d'autres épisodes, dont celui du conflit (...) / France, Algérie, Guerre d'Algérie 1954-1962 - 2024/12

La France est le deuxième pays européen enregistrant le plus grand nombre d'accidents du travail mortels. De tels chiffres ne sont peut-être pas sans rapport avec la mansuétude qui caractérise le système judiciaire dès lors que des patrons sont assis sur le banc des accusés. / France, Travail - (...) / France, Travail - 2024/12