Talking about climate change should be made a priority. Around the world, there are public outcries about a scarcity of water, which is a basic subsistence that no one should be deprived from. Temperatures across the globe are rising, the number of available farmlands is shrinking, and in California there is a relentless draught. The western side of the country is feeling the effects of climate change full-on, leading many to debate if we are taking water for granted out here.
In this area, specifically, another drought a few years back melted the snowpack in upper Colorado, which resulted in shrinking the levels of water available regionally. The reservoir witnessed a grand scale of loss of water, and sadly the situation has never been any better. Across the border, Mexico is revolutionizing its approach to climate change: clean electricity, grid modernization, a greater promotion of more fuel efficient automobile fleets, weather forecasting and early alert systems, are all on their new agenda.
This new commitment aims to reduce the country’s gas emissions, black carbon pollutants by 2030. Mexico as a country is not responsible for plenty of gas emissions but nonetheless its drive towards combating it, was a positive and welcoming move about helping Earth’s atmosphere. These proposals were launched in co-operation with the United States, which brings me back to the climate change agenda here.
President Obama’s latest plan reveals that there is an ambition to cut 26-28percent of harmful gas emissions by 2025. This is a good slow step to recovery for the atmosphere, because although the percentages aren’t huge, they are still significant and a definite improvement. United States is presently leading the way for battling climate change. There is more wind power, solar power, a greater energy efficiency, clean energy, but there are still many areas that need to be worked upon, such as limiting the amount of harmful gas emissions powerplants should be permitted to carry on with.
Back home, there is a greater degree of transparency than can be found amongst all of the hopefuls in America: the EU and China have both committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions on the chart, but any higher involvement will mean that the United Kingdom, for one, will be left with nothing to contribute here, as a great use of carbon offsets begin to take precedence across its borders. The Labour Party, right before going to elections, clearly highlighted tackling climate change as a priority, quite unlike the remaining parties – they seem to find the concept of tackling climate change obtrusive. Plenty of new generation capacities are being built in the United Kingdom for the future, and Labour has pointed out that it stands on the side of renewable energies and clean coal.
The decarbonisation of the power sector is one key policy point that should be addressed, and the discussion here should be about the long-term cost involved: do we employ low carbon-deployment soon enough at the expense of a hike in energy bills? Providing a cleaner infrastructure should be more affordable than it is at the present. Energy bills for consumers can be brought down by employing energy efficiency practices at home. This would also help reduce fuel poverty, the need to pay for replacement infrastructure, alongside reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and effectively tackling climate change, much better.
The post Climate Change: Low-Cost Battles appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
In a surprise to nearly everyone, the Conservatives have won the UK’s 2015 General Election with a (small) overall majority. Following his audience with the Queen after the election, David Cameron reiterated his commitment to holding an in/out referendum on Britain’s EU membership. It seems therefore that we can now expect several years of negotiation, campaigning and debate on the UK’s future in the European Union.
Renegotiation
Central to the Prime Minister’s pledge is the promised renegotiation of Britain’s terms of membership in the Union. He has stated previously that he wants to be able to recommend a vote to stay in the EU. However, to date we’ve had only hints of what the government hopes to achieve from a renegotiation.
Opting the UK out of the aim of ‘ever closer union’ and increasing the length of transitional controls for new Member States (such as temporarily limiting free movement with those states) have come up as possible demands. We’ll need the details of what the Prime Minister aims to accomplish from these negotiations in order to judge whether they are a success. The absence of clarity of course brings with it greater room for manoeuvre should talks with EU partners prove more difficult than hoped.
Referendum
The proposed timeline is as yet unclear, but negotiations would have to start soon. It is now mid-2015 and the Prime Minister has pledged that the referendum will take place by the end of 2017, leaving at most a year and a half to successfully complete a renegotiation and hold a campaign and vote. David Cameron might also hold the referendum early to capitalise on his electoral success and to head off any demands from within his party, further limiting the window to negotiate with other Member States and the EU institutions.
The specific details of the referendum will also have to be decided. An EU referendum bill will need to go through Parliament and, while the PM has a thin majority in the Commons, he has no majority in the Lords, potentially making agreement on the bill more difficult. Parliamentary process aside, this EU plebiscite will be only the third nationwide referendum to take place in the UK (the others being the EC membership referendum in 1975 and the Alternative Vote referendum in 2011).
The Scotland independence referendum can undoubtedly provide insights into the mechanics of holding such a vote. However, in some key respects, an EU referendum will be completely different. In the Scotland debate, many organisations and individuals remained neutral on the vote – this would not be the case here. The vast majority of the political establishment, the business community and civil society is very likely to come out strongly in support of continued EU membership. In this sense, the official landscape will be very lopsided. At the same time, UK public opinion on the EU is mixed, but it’s also consistently higher under the hypothetical that the government is successful in its renegotiation (a seemingly rare moment of trust in political leaders).
If Britain votes to leave
Should the UK electorate choose to leave the EU, a process of negotiation will have to begin with the EU institutions on behalf of the remaining Member States to agree Britain’s future relationship with the rest of the EU. The EU treaties (Article 50 TEU) now set out a procedure for a Member State to withdraw from the Union, giving some clarity in this respect. Negotiations can last up to two years and must be approved by a qualified majority of EU members and by the European Parliament. Unless talks are extended, after time elapses the UK would leave automatically, even if no deal is reached.
A plethora of matters would have to be discussed, including the UK’s future participation in the single market, which of course incorporates the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. In the current political context, free movement of persons would likely be a particularly challenging issue, affecting the rights both of EU citizens in the UK and of UK citizens in the EU. Britain’s role in every other EU programme, such as Erasmus, would all need to be agreed.
Such negotiations would be time-consuming, difficult and costly and require a great deal of expertise. Interestingly, the UK is scheduled to hold the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU during the second half of 2017. Britain may find itself at the same time chairing part of an organisation it is debating or has decided to leave.
In these circumstances, the question arises of whether a second referendum would be held to approve the UK’s new relationship with the EU. Alternatively, a vote might be held in Parliament to endorse the negotiated terms for the UK’s EU exit and whatever relationship might replace it. A second referendum would provide an opportunity for the electorate to confirm their support for the proposed alternative to membership.
If Britain votes to stay
If UK voters decide to stay in the EU, Britain’s membership would apparently continue much as before. Any provisions secured as part of the renegotiation would presumably take effect, giving Britain additional opt-outs or other special arrangements or indeed changing how the EU itself works.
A renegotiation could range from modest to radical, depending on the appetite of the rest of the EU to compromise. If the result falls short of dramatic change, it is unlikely to be from a lack of desire on the part of the UK government. It would be extremely ambitious to expect full treaty change under the above timescale. A more likely scenario is an agreement on principles and a commitment to include them in future treaty reform where necessary (some points might be achievable within the current treaties).
Britain is not unused to confrontation on Europe. Nevertheless, this chapter in its relationship with the EU could prove particularly high stakes. Possible outcomes include a more sustainable EU membership, a more distanced relationship with the EU or a situation not dissimilar to the status quo. The EU referendum result could have constitutional implications as well, at a time when the UK’s constitutional future is the subject of ongoing debate.
The shape of Britain’s future relationship with the EU will have a profound impact on its economy and its place in the world. The consequences of this debate will be numerous, and many will only become apparent over time.
Please read the comments policy before commenting.
Shortened link: britainseurope.uk/20150512
How to cite this article:
Salamone, A (2015) ‘Britain’s EU membership: The debate and the referendum, Britain’s Europe (Ideas on Europe), 12 May 2015, britainseurope.uk/20150512
The post Britain’s EU membership: The debate and the referendum appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
Since Ryan Heath‘s been kind enough to mention all the work I do on this site on Brexit, it seems like a good opportunity to mention a new project I’ve been working on.
‘A Diet of Brussels‘ is a podcast about the referendum here in the UK on EU membership. In it, I want to try and explore the issues, to help inform debate and produce a more considered outcome. It’s not aimed at being ‘yes’ or ‘no’ but rather that raising the level of knowledge about the process and the key issues.
Each podcast is 5 minutes – for everyone’s sanity – and if you have a question to be addressed, then you can just send in a request and I’ll try my best.
I’ll happily admit my technical abilities might not yet be up to much, but it’ll improve over time, plus you all get to enjoy Berlaymonster’s excellent logo at regular opportunities.
So have a listen in: any feedback most welcome.
The post A Diet of Brussels appeared first on Ideas on Europe.