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As a middle power, with a range of assets and resources, Australia is not powerless in the face of change.

Amid democratic backsliding, Generation Z (GenZ1) protests have emerged as major regime challengers. Yet, social movements do not mobilize in isolation. They draw from and collaborate with a larger ecosystem of civil society organizations (CSOs). This policy brief looks at the cases of Kenya and Madagascar, where GenZ movements and CSOs initially played complementary roles. Yet, in Madagascar, the movement parted ways with CSOs quickly after the protests ended. In Kenya, collaboration prevailed, even though frictions appeared in GenZ groups. The brief concludes that social movements draw their legitimacy from acting autonomously from CSOs, the state and donors. Donor support should focus on pro-democratic CSOs who work complementarily and can translate demands into concrete reform proposals.

Amid democratic backsliding, Generation Z (GenZ1) protests have emerged as major regime challengers. Yet, social movements do not mobilize in isolation. They draw from and collaborate with a larger ecosystem of civil society organizations (CSOs). This policy brief looks at the cases of Kenya and Madagascar, where GenZ movements and CSOs initially played complementary roles. Yet, in Madagascar, the movement parted ways with CSOs quickly after the protests ended. In Kenya, collaboration prevailed, even though frictions appeared in GenZ groups. The brief concludes that social movements draw their legitimacy from acting autonomously from CSOs, the state and donors. Donor support should focus on pro-democratic CSOs who work complementarily and can translate demands into concrete reform proposals.

Amid democratic backsliding, Generation Z (GenZ1) protests have emerged as major regime challengers. Yet, social movements do not mobilize in isolation. They draw from and collaborate with a larger ecosystem of civil society organizations (CSOs). This policy brief looks at the cases of Kenya and Madagascar, where GenZ movements and CSOs initially played complementary roles. Yet, in Madagascar, the movement parted ways with CSOs quickly after the protests ended. In Kenya, collaboration prevailed, even though frictions appeared in GenZ groups. The brief concludes that social movements draw their legitimacy from acting autonomously from CSOs, the state and donors. Donor support should focus on pro-democratic CSOs who work complementarily and can translate demands into concrete reform proposals.

The push to emphasize Taiwanese identity is at odds with the government’s attempt to center the Republic of China in World War II history.

India is in a unique position as a founding member and one of its biggest borrowers.

Nurunnahar, 45, is always afraid of the tide. Early warning of the tide helps her prepare. Photographed at Jhapali village in Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) of Satkhira district, Bangladesh. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

By Rafiqul Islam Montu
SHYAMNAGAR (Satkhira), Bangladesh, Oct 1 2026 (IPS)

Villagers rush to the vulnerable spot of the embankment—early warning of the rising tide has alerted them. Together, they save the village from tidal flooding by repairing the vulnerable embankment, which is at risk from the impact of low pressure in July this year. The message is clear: early warnings of the rising tide save lives and property.

This wasn’t always the case. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 and Cyclone Yaas in 2021 destroyed the embankment in question, which is located in Datinakhali village, Burigoalini Union, Shyamnagar sub-district, Satkhira district, southwestern Bangladesh. But there was no early warning of the rising tide at that time, and the cyclone caused extensive damage.

Every year during the monsoon, the pressure of tidal water in various parts of the Bangladeshi coast breaks or overflows the embankment. This causes extensive damage to homes, resources, and crops. Many displaced families have been forced to move elsewhere after facing severe losses.

“Real-time area-based tidal surge warnings are helping us in disaster preparedness, saving resources and lives. We can take necessary measures to protect ourselves before the tidal surge. But we have faced losses again and again because we did not have this opportunity before,” explained Meherun Nesa, 45, a resident of Kalbari village in the Shyamnagar sub-district of Satkhira district. Rokeya Begum, 40, Sakina Begum, 39, and many others shared the same opinion.

The United Nations has set the goal of Early Warning for All by 2027 to save people from disasters. On the other hand, a new UN report published on August 31, 2026, says that more than 14 million people in the South Asian delta region are at risk of losing their shelter due to rising sea levels.

Their homes will be permanently submerged. Bangladesh is one of the countries at risk. It is crucial that updated disaster warnings reach people like Meherun Nesha, who live in disaster-prone areas of the country.

This house in Anuliya village in Asashuni upazila (sub-district) of the Satkhira district, Bangladesh, was swept away by tidal water pressure in April 2025, before there was a cyclone warning system. Credit: Rafiqul Islam Montu/IPS

Early Warnings Protect Against Tides

Early warnings were given in 25 places during low sea levels in July, August, and September this year about the risk of breaking embankments or overflowing embankments. After receiving the warnings, villagers repaired the embankments in the two most vulnerable places.

In other places, villagers have also carried out additional preparatory work. Now, people living on the coast can know in advance whether the tide will rise or whether the embankments will collapse under the pressure of the tide. By getting warnings, they are able to prepare themselves and save resources.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based scientific early warnings are also protecting the coastal people of Bangladesh from major disasters like tidal waves and embankment collapses. This technology is capable of providing accurate forecasts three days in advance of the cyclone.

The technology provides advance information about the location of potential tidal waves, water height, flooded areas, and vulnerable embankments. Through these capabilities, meteorologists and disaster management professionals can make quick decisions. Disaster management professionals hope that the technology will further enhance Bangladesh’s capacity to deal with disasters and will play an effective role in reducing losses.

The country currently provides cyclone forecasts, but being port-based or large area-based, these forecasts do not cover specific areas. These forecasts can’t accurately identify the specific location of tidal waves, potential water height, or flooded areas. To overcome this limitation, a scientific model has been developed with international cooperation, which is known as ‘Surf IT.’

The international organization Action Against Hunger and North South University are working jointly under the leadership of Bangladeshi non-governmental organization Uttaran to combat the disaster. Technical assistance is provided by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Water Development Board (BWDB), and Department of Disaster Management (DDM). The International Development Research Center (IDRC) provides financial support for the project.

How Does ‘Surf IT’ Work?

The model works by combining tides, temperature, and wind speed. It is combined with local knowledge. It involves marginalized communities in the project area. The model has been developed following the experience of weather forecasting systems in the European Union and the United States.

It not only measures the height of the tidal wave but also analyzes the condition of coastal embankments, their load-bearing capacity, and where the embankments are at risk of failure, and creates a map of flooded areas. Water sensors are constantly monitoring the river system and quickly detect any changes in water levels. Dams have been mapped to identify vulnerable areas and potential breach sites.

A digital dashboard has been created to convert complex data into simple and effective warnings. These help in providing forecasts. The information is sent to marginalized communities in local languages. It is sometimes sent via voice calls and sometimes via text messages. It is sent in such a simple language that anybody can access the message from any mobile phone.

According to the researchers, the latest test has shown that the model’s predictions are about 98 percent accurate. Work is underway to make it 100 percent accurate. Therefore, the model was tested at the field level in June, July, August, and September this year.

The project plans to transfer the technology to the government for use in the national disaster forecasting system. Currently, the project covers about 500,000 people in 20 unions across 3 sub-districts in 2 districts in southwest Bangladesh. The sub-districts are Shyamnagar, Asashuni in Satkhira district, and Koyra in Khulna district.

Will Reduce Loss and Damage

Md Jakariya, head of the ‘Surf IT’ technical team and professor in the Department of Environmental Science & Management at North South University, said, “One of the goals of the project is to reduce damage not only from major cyclones but also from regular very high tides and small tidal waves. Usually, even in the absence of major government assistance, people in coastal villages suffer a lot. The project has been initiated to reduce that damage.”

Discussions with the government are ongoing.

“This modern model is now final. Regular policy-making meetings are being held with high-level government officials to increase its effectiveness. The model is capable of predicting disasters three days in advance,” Zahid Amin Shaswat, Head of Program at the NGO Uttaran, which implements ‘Surf IT,’ said.

The advantage of this technology is that it goes beyond forecasting.

“Cyclone forecasting alone is not enough in coastal risk management; accurate information about the location, height, and potential flood areas is the most important thing in protecting human lives and property. Therefore, if such a technology based on scientific information can be effectively implemented, early evacuation of people to safe places, dam protection, and decision-making by local administration will be more realistic,” Environmentalist Sharif Jamil said.

Bangladesh in the Face of Disasters

Disasters like cyclones, floods, and heat waves are increasing in Bangladesh. Recently, coastal marginalized communities are facing loss and damage due to the impact of high tides.

In the latest long-term Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) published by Germanwatch, Bangladesh ranks 13th among the most vulnerable countries in the world. The World Bank has expressed concern that 216 million people will be internally displaced in six regions of the world by 2050 if necessary measures are not taken to prevent climate change. Of these, 40 million people will be displaced in South Asia. In South Asia alone, 19.9 million people are expected to be displaced in Bangladesh.

A recent joint study by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU) says that more than 21 million people were displaced due to cyclones, floods, and tidal waves in Bangladesh between 2008 and 2025.

Meanwhile, in July this year, Disaster Management and Relief Minister Asadul Habib Dulu informed the National Parliament that floods and cyclones have caused Tk 41,200 crore (about US$ 3.3 million) in damage in the country over the five years from 2021 to 2025.

“In addition to major disasters, disasters like sudden high tides cause extensive damage to rural villages. Here, technology is being combined with the long-standing experience and folk knowledge of local people. Through this approach, it is possible to predict more accurately which dams are weak, where the risk of collapse is high, and where water can overflow,” added Md Jakariya.

Experts involved in the project hope that accurate early warning will ensure the safety of coastal people and reduce the risk of cyclones and tidal waves due to climate change. At the same time, the project will further strengthen Bangladesh’s capacity in disaster management.

On the ground people from marginalized communities, like Meherun Nesa, find hope in this message from experts.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

 

 

 

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Alle registrierten Datennutzer*innen können die neueste Datenedition v42 (DOI: 10.5684/soep.core.v42eu) ab sofort über unser Online-Bestellformular bestellen.   Auf Deutsch: http://www.diw.de/SOEPbestellungAuf Englisch: http://www.diw.de/SOEPorder Die wichtigsten Neuigkeiten für die v42: ...

Alle registrierten Datennutzer*innen können die neueste Datenedition v42 (DOI: 10.5684/soep.core.v42eu) ab sofort über unser Online-Bestellformular bestellen.   Auf Deutsch: http://www.diw.de/SOEPbestellungAuf Englisch: http://www.diw.de/SOEPorder Die wichtigsten Neuigkeiten für die v42: ...

Spokespersons for Parliament and for the political groups will hold a briefing on the 5 – 8 October plenary session, on Friday at 11.00 in Parliament’s Anna Politkovskaya press room.

Source : © European Union, 2026 - EP

Spokespersons for Parliament and for the political groups will hold a briefing on the 5 – 8 October plenary session, on Friday at 11.00 in Parliament’s Anna Politkovskaya press room.

Source : © European Union, 2026 - EP

Spokespersons for Parliament and for the political groups will hold a briefing on the 5 – 8 October plenary session, on Friday at 11.00 in Parliament’s Anna Politkovskaya press room.

Source : © European Union, 2026 - EP

Spokespersons for Parliament and for the political groups will hold a briefing on the 5 – 8 October plenary session, on Friday at 11.00 in Parliament’s Anna Politkovskaya press room.

Source : © European Union, 2026 - EP

Spokespersons for Parliament and for the political groups will hold a briefing on the 5 – 8 October plenary session, on Friday at 11.00 in Parliament’s Anna Politkovskaya press room.

Source : © European Union, 2026 - EP

Japan can use the Iran war to reexamine its security framework, with particular attention to preparations for a contingency involving Taiwan.

Central Asia aligns rhetorically with Beijing and Moscow in regional group settings, materially with Washington in bilateral deals, and with no one in particular at the United Nations.

Five military officials were arrested in connection to the deaths of 14 servicemen lost at sea during a combat exercise in southwestern Kazakhstan, as a day of national mourning is observed.

Sommaire

Numéro spécial : Les cinq verrous de la mer Rouge
- L’Erythrée
- Djibouti : le siècle français
- Afar et Issa : l’impossible démocratie ethnique
- Djibouti, un Etat-Port
- La question somalienne
- Somalie : la crise de l‘année 2026 
- La Somalie : un protectorat turc ?
- Le Puntland n’est pas une fiction
Livres
Relire Henry de Monfreid pour comprendre les constantes de la géopolitique de la Mer Rouge et du détroit de Bab el Mandeb


Editorial de Bernard Lugan
Intervenant après  la quasi fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz, la prise de contrôle de la rive arabe du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb par les Houtis alliés de l’Iran bouleverse la géopolitique des flux maritimes. Par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb  transitent en effet  10 à 15 % du commerce mondial et près de 30 % du trafic conteneurisé. Toute perturbation dans ce détroit affecte donc immédiatement les chaînes logistiques entre l’Asie, le Golfe, l’Europe et le reste du monde. 
La mer Rouge et le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb n’ont  pas attendu la guerre  américano-iranienne pour être au cœur de la géopolitique  mondiale. Depuis le XVIe siècle, cette artère économique majeure est en effet au centre des convoitises des  grandes et des moyennes puissances. Longtemps cul-de-sac, la mer Rouge est devenue un des axes maritimes mondiaux les plus fréquentés après 1869, date de l’inauguration du Canal de Suez. Cependant, aujourd’hui encore, ses rivages inhospitaliers sont longés par des boutres mouillant au débouché de ces routes caravanières si bien décrites par Henry de Monfreid, et dont les constantes ethno-tribales s’inscrivent en arrière-plan des conflits actuels.
Aujourd’hui, le contrôle de ses ports clés, Djibouti, Berbera, Assab, et plus au nord ceux du Soudan, explique la présence militaire régionale des États-Unis, de la Chine, de la France, de la Grande-Bretagne, des EAU et de la Turquie. Djibouti, « hub » militaire et logistique de la mer Rouge, accueille ainsi une base américaine, une base chinoise, une base française et des navires japonais et italiens  y sont régulièrement présents. Sans perdre de vue que la Turquie qui a fait de la Somalie un quasi protectorat a opéré un retour spectaculaire dans ce qui fut son ancienne zone d’influence dont elle avait été chassée durant le premier mondial.
L’émiettement entre trois Etats, Erythrée, Djibouti et Somalie, plus deux Etats auto-proclamés, le Somaliland et le Puntland disputés entre les puissances régionales et extra régionales, ajoute à la complexité de la situation actuelle. Le but de ce numéro spécial est d’en expliquer les constantes.
D'autant plus que depuis la fin du mois de septembre, la guerre a repris en Éthiopie, une guerre sur trois fronts (Tigré, Afar et Amhara). Avec à la base, une fois encore, des questions ethno-territoriales qui menacent de faire éclater la mosaïque ethnique d’un pays enclavé depuis l’indépendance de l’Erythrée. Or, si ce conflit devenait une nouvelle guerre de tous contre tous, ce serait alors toute la région de la Corne qui pourrait s'embraser. L'Afrique Réelle du mois de novembre 2026 consacrera un important dossier à ce nouveau conflit  et à ses conséquences.

Les commissions de l’environnement et de la santé publique souhaitent que le prochain outil européen de prévention et de réaction fasse plus pour anticiper les crises et soutenir la reprise.
Commission de l'environnement, de la santé publique et de la sécurité alimentaire
Commission de la santé publique

Source : © Union européenne, 2026 - PE

Well, it feels like I picked a good time to start trying to blog more.

Andy Burnham’s speech to the Labour party conference has fired the gun on something that felt pretty unlikely just a few weeks ago: a debate about the UK’s relationship with the EU.

Given that one month ago I myself was arguing that silence reflected a likely low profile for EU affairs for Burnham, I am forced to reconsider my position, which I happily do, even if I’m not yet fully sold on how far this new process will go.

Burnham’s speech highlighted the degree to which we shouldn’t oversell the move right now. The section on the EU was pretty short and vague in its intent, coming after a much more impassioned and developed exploration of social care; even electoral reform got more of a commitment than Europe.

But Burnham did move the dial in saying that Brexit had done “more harm than good”. With that came the implication that red lines might have to change or go, something confirmed by subsequent remarks that leave all options on the table.

As someone who’s spent years saying we need to have a public debate about what the UK’s relationship with the EU should be, including the costs and benefits of different options, it’s very odd to hear an actual Prime Minister say just that, and I guess I should feel more positive than I do.

Part of my hesitancy is that there’s a big gap between saying you want a debate to see if you can find a consensus picture and actually doing that. As we know, there has been a lot of talking about what individuals would like to see happen (as last week) which largely involves ignoring inconveniences like other people having ideas (and votes) too. Like the EU itself.

On this, Burnham has not said much, although there appears to be some recognition that there’s no point in coming up with a plan that won’t fly in Brussels or national capitals.

Moreover, there is also a tendency in British discussions to date to treat ‘Europe’ as a separate box from the rest of politics. If we might learn one thing from Brexit, then it is that involvement in the system of European integration comes with extensive and deep entanglements across the full range of economic and political life, in ways that aren’t immediately apparent. To flip that on its head, any discussion of European policy will also have to consider government policy in general, since the former can only be sustainable if it is married to the latter and the conceptualisation of the UK’s development.

Here, Burnham has been less explicit and given the relative disconnect of social care or electoral reform from the EU’s remit we might wonder if there becomes a splitting off of European work to allow the other items to press on.

And finally, despite everything we’ve experienced in the past decade, we risk forgetting that most people don’t have strongly held views on European integration or British policy. Preferences are relatively shallow and liable to shift, depending on what information you give people, a point highlighted by some polling over the summer by Britain Elects. More pertinently, the ability of campaigners to reframe options in active political debates was well demonstrated by the Leave campaign in 2016, building on long experience in articulating eurosceptic arguments; something largely absent in Remain.

This is perhaps where Burnham has been least adventurous. He seems to know his own mind on much of his politics and has previously expressed a desire for much closer EU relations, but here seems determined at this stage not to prejudge a debate where a consensus view might not quite match his.

Fair enough, but in the prospective of having to defend going across red lines, up to and including rejoining, there needs to be much more development of the rhetorical lines and arguments that will convey the logic and imperative of that change.

Go back to the conference speech and the section on the EU, which I include here:

“Later this year, there will be a UK-EU summit where one of the issues on the agenda will be how we best work together on immigration.

And beyond that we will work to secure gains for our industries most harmed by Brexit.

Conference, these are important concrete steps.

But they are not enough.

I say this to you and the country.

We will not give Britain the clear path we need into the rest of the century until we decide on a long-term relationship with what is still our largest market.

I cannot say to you truthfully that where we are is good enough.

Brexit has done more harm than good.

We need to restore a higher level of growth and prosperity for Britain.

So, I will take the opportunity around the summit to lay out to you, to lay out to the country, what I believe the different options are for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners.

And there are different options.

And I will see if we can find consensus around one which will give us clarity about our position, and the future of the continent we live in.”

So is this just about ‘growth and prosperity’ and ‘markets’, or does ‘the future of the continent’ cover something more? Burnham will recall that owning the rational argument in 2016 didn’t cut it against the emotional lines that Leave advanced, but we wait to see if he has his own take to bring to the matter.

So we wait for some more flesh on the bones of this moment. Potentially, it opens up a path to major movement in British policy, even if that seems likely to be limited to manifesto commitments in the general election to break current red lines. Certainly, the initial response has been at the better end of expectations, with generally positive reactions in Labour and more muted lines from Reform and the Conservatives (partly reflecting their focus on the pension triple lock, where they think there’s more traction).

The possible unblocking of the reset negotiations to allow for a late November summit is an important contextual development here, since it is a marker of how serious Burnham is about moving forward. The uncertainty here is that university fees seems to be parked in the youth mobility deal, something that had been a big EU ask: if it has been disconnected, then that suggests the EU is also up for moving things promptly and amicably. If that turns out not to be the case, then we are back to underlining the centrality of EU preferences in all this.

In the meantime, it might be helpful to start laying the groundwork for what’s coming. The following graphics offer a summary of possible models and some key points to keep in mind as the debate starts. As ever, my interest in how we might move towards a grounded and resilient relationship that works for most people means that I’ve got to step up on providing useful and impartial support, so if you have any questions or queries then do just ask.

 

 

PDF: https://bit.ly/UshGraphic150

 

PDF: https://bit.ly/UshGraphic149

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