Diplomacy & Crisis News

L'essor des monnaies numériques comme le bitcoin excite la convoitise de Wall Street. Pourtant, ces monnaies électroniques furent conçues pour court-circuiter les banques. En croisant les aspirations de ceux qui contestent le pouvoir de la finance, elles auraient pu donner une nouvelle jeunesse (...) / Banque, Capitalisme, Économie, Finance, Histoire, Idées, Internet, Monnaie, Mutation, Technologie, Crise financière - 2016/03

The Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq are linked by a thin and fragile thread, a two-lane highway that passes camps filled with refugees from the wars ravaging these lands. The road is bisected by the Tigris, the international frontier that separates not only Syria from Iraq but also Kurds from Kurds. This was the border that first took shape one hundred years ago this week with the Sykes-Picot agreement between Britain and France—the first of a series of negotiations aimed at dividing the former Ottoman territories of the Levant between the two European powers. And while ISIS has made its hostility to the Anglo-French map well known, it is arguably the Kurds who have been most affected by the modern state system that has emerged from it.

(Own report) - Despite its involvement in violent activities, Berlin is intensifying its cooperation with the Crimean Tartars' Mejlis. Just recently, Mejlis Chairman Refat Chubarov visited Germany's Ministry of Foreign Affairs for political consultations. The talks were obviously not hampered by the fact that last September, Chubarov had announced a blockade of Ukrainian trade with Crimea and that in October, he had explicitly praised the blockade's grave consequences on the Crimean population - the shortages and significant price increases for staple foods. The German foreign ministry does not feel compelled to distance itself from the Mejlis, even after their activists blew up electric pylons causing extensive interruptions in the electrical supply to Crimea. German ethnicist organizations had established good relations with Chubarov and his predecessor Mustafa Jemilev, already years ago, intensifying these since 2010 to fortify anti-Russian circles following Kiev's change of government. Even though quite controversial among the Crimean Tatars, this cooperation with the Mejlis milieu is closely coordinated with the USA, Turkey under Erdoğan and other NATO member countries. The concurrency of the cooperation with the Crimean Tatars and their occasional violent protests is reminiscent of developments in Ukraine in the spring of 2013.

(Flickr)

One might have expected British Prime Minister David Cameron, the host of last week’s anti-corruption summit in London, to have been a bit more cautious when speaking of the “fantastically corrupt” countries whose leaders were his guests. Cameron’s comments about Nigeria and Afghanistan were caught on tape as he described them—to the Queen, no less—as “possibly the two most corrupt countries in the world.”

Muhammadu Buhari, the Nigerian president, was shocked and embarrassed according to media and staff reports, but declined to ask for an apology, pointedly stressing that he would rather see recovered the many tangible assets hidden away by his countrymen in the UK.

For all the diplomatic drama—since, not to be outdone, Queen Elizabeth was caught on tape insulting the Chinese too—the anti-corruption summit moved forward with representatives of some 40 nations present and with Buhari delivering the keynote address. A final twist occurred when The Economist reported there had been speculation that Cameron’s indiscretion was actually intentional, designed to stir up additional media interest in the otherwise staid summit talks.

International cooperation in the fight against corruption

By most accounts, the summit was a good first step toward international cooperation on transparency and toward cobbling together a coordinated effort to target secretive tax havens and offshore financial arrangements tied to illegal activities. Of the 40 attending nations, ten are EU members.

These European participants are now looking to shut down the anonymous shell companies used for money laundering by developing registers of the true business owners involved. While Ireland will consider it, France, the U.K. and the Netherlands have pledged to make those registries public—albeit some of the U.K.’s overseas territories, like the British Virgin Islands, will not be forced to come clean.

Additionally, five EU nations pledged to increase transparency on corporate tax compliance, while the summit further addressed corruption in negotiating and awarding EU public contracts, protections for whistleblowers, and seizure penalties.

However, the fact that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry managed to shift attention away from America’s notoriously secretive states of Delaware, Nevada or South Dakota prompted many to argue that the West is more interested in pointing fingers at developing countries than addressing its own shortfalls. Looking ahead, participants agreed to hold a forum next year on asset recovery, one that will focus on assistance for challenged nations such as the “fantastically corrupt” Nigeria.

Nigeria and the culture of corruption

For his part, Buhari’s remarks referred to corruption as a “hydra-headed monster” that cannot be reined in without a coordinated effort. He detailed how four different Nigerian agencies are pursuing corruption investigations in a bid to respect his campaign promises from 2015. Buhari also addressed human rights issues in Nigeria’s fight against corruption, as well as the problem of oil theft, estimated at 150,000 barrels a day. The extent of Nigeria’s problem is reflected by data provided in the annual Transparency International index, which ranked the nation at 136 of the 168 countries evaluated.

Buhari, however, has so far failed to deliver on his lofty campaign promises to root out Nigeria’s endemic corruption. After a remarkably slow start to his term, which saw the country running without an appointed cabinet between May and November 2015, Buhari came under fire for using international aid money earmarked for cracking down on Boko Haram to fund a witch hunt against opposition politicians.

Indeed, according to reports, the nascent anti-corruption campaign has been targeting political enemies of the regime, raising fears that Buhari, a former military dictator in the 80s, is returning to his autocratic ways.

Beyond the shining example Buhari set for the wider region showing that democratic transitions can indeed be possible in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigerians are not faring any better.

The president who once claimed he could singlehandedly stabilize world oil prices is being sapped by a period of high inflation that has driven food prices higher, while the inefficient power grid and infrastructure are dragging down the embattled Nigerian economy. Improving just the grid would boost the country’s economy by a whopping 14%, but the process is stalled because of rent seeking and graft.

What’s most troubling though is the vicious circle of corruption in Nigerian society: the elites who avail themselves of the country’s assets cause the very suffering that they are then supposed to alleviate. The poverty rate among rural households has grown to some 80 % on the back of tumbling oil prices in an economy that has failed to properly diversify.

The ongoing conflicts with Boko Haram in the northeast—itself fueling, and fueled by, Nigeria’s corruption—and the unrest from Biafrans in the south contribute to the nation’s climate of instability.

Everything considered, Nigeria is one of the most revealing examples of the pitfalls of corruption, the way it warps and drags down the entire economic potential of a nation.

When coupled with incompetent leadership, the only hope for Nigerians would be for this year’s anti-corruption summit to yield practical results. A list of individuals hiding wealth in London’s ridiculously overpriced property market and laundering corruption proceeds through the U.K.’s overseas territories would be a good start, both for Nigeria and David Cameron.

The post Cameron’s Anti-Corruption Summit: A First Step in a Long Road appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

A member of the Iraqi security forces holds an Iraqi flag at a government complex in the city of Ramadi, December 28, 2015. (REUTERS/Stringer)

Written by Loïc Burton

On March 22, terror struck Brussels with a twin blast at Zaventem Airport and the Maelbeek metro station, claiming the lives of 32 people and injuring over 300. The attacks claimed by ISIS came only a few days after a suicide bombing killed five and injured 36 in Istanbul—the fourth suicide bombing in Turkey in 2016.

The latest bombings have reheated the debate within the EU about tighter border controls—possibly foreshadowing the eventual breakdown of the Schengen Agreement. In addition, the attacks have hardened Europe’s determination to combat terrorism at home, with increased monitoring of ISIS fighters returning from the Middle East and improved intelligence sharing between EU members, and abroad, whether through ramping up aircraft deployments in the coalition against the Islamic State or by supplying weapons to local actors.

Experts have argued that ISIS’s increased activity abroad is a sign of weakness rather than strength. As the so-called caliphate begins to crumble—ISIS is thought to have lost around 20% of its territory in Syria and over 40% in Iraq since its peak expansion in August 2014—the group is allocating efforts and resources toward large-scale terrorist attacks abroad in order to influence the strategic calculations of the coalition member countries at a reduced cost.

Since ISIS’s “winner’s message” of “remaining and expanding” sounds increasingly hollow, this tactical shift is one way to catch global headlines and retain its legitimacy and ability to recruit.

Although the increased operational tempo of terrorist attacks is the manifestation of the group’s faltering, the ISIS underlying ideology is not expected to wither away anytime soon. Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism finance analyst at the Treasury Department, argues that “defeating the formal military presence of a terrorist group will not significantly mitigate the threat of lone wolf or small independent cells that are based in the West.”

In its heartland, ISIS is definitely in retreat. According to Pentagon officials, U.S. airstrikes have killed over 25,000 Islamic State fighters and deprived the group of millions of dollars in revenue. Financially debilitated, it has halved salaries of its civil servants and is releasing hostages for sums as low as $500.

Indeed, ISIS has not scored a significant victory since taking Palmyra in May 2015. The ancient city was recaptured by the Syrian regime, supported by Russian airstrikes, on March 27, 2016, reducing ISIS’s ability to threaten Syria’s coastal regions.

In Iraq, after retaking Tikrit in March 2015 and Ramadi in December, the government in Baghdad declared on March 24 the beginning of operations to retake Mosul. The offensive to regain Iraq’s second largest city will not be easy.

After some initial success reclaiming nearby villages, progress in the military campaign was stalled. More sober prognostics have now replaced the once optimistic talks of pushing ISIS out of Mosul by the end of the year—military analysts estimate that there is little prospect of an assault on the city before 2017.

With about 10,000 fighters and almost two years to erect a multilayered defense, a force of at least 40,000 would be needed to overcome the group, according to estimates. Indeed, the current under-strength Iraqi division supported by U.S. military advisers looks woefully inadequate for the task.

Moreover, because of ethno-religious tensions, Kurdish Peshmerga seem uninterested in helping take a city that would never be part of an independent Kurdistan while Shi‘a-dominated militias—instrumental in retaking Tikrit—will probably be kept away for fears of sectarian reprisals following the conquest of the Sunni-majority city.

An important factor in the battle for Mosul is America’s involvement. The Pentagon wants to go beyond air strikes and the current deployment of military advisers and introduce additional special forces. However, this goes against Obama’s “no boots on the ground” pledge—although an increasingly tenuous promise, it rules out the deployment on the scale necessary to retake Mosul.

After attempting to train local forces—leading to the disastrous $500 million train-and-equip program for Syrian moderates that yielded little to no results—and bombing oil production facilities under Operation Tidal Wave II, the U.S. is now focusing on a leadership decapitation campaign, using special forces on the ground. In March, American forces killed Haji Iman, ISIS’s second-in-command, as well as Abu Omar al-Shishanim, the group’s “war minister.”

Secretary of Defense Ash Carter explained current U.S. strategy: “we are systematically eliminating ISIL’s cabinet,” in order to “hamper the ability for them to conduct operations inside and outside of Iraq and Syria.” Although the leadership is capable of regenerating itself and operating on the ground, taking out leaders reduces the group’s ability to conduct terrorist attacks abroad as they require a more sophisticated network and superior coordination.

Talks of a new training program—allegedly more narrowly focused—and Obama’s decision to add 250 military personnel to the 50 already on the ground in Syria are the latest development in the U.S. effort to capitalize on the momentum in  the campaign against the Islamic State. It remains to be seen whether or not these new policies achieve the desired outcome.

Recommended Readings

Max Fisher, “The Brussels attack is Europe’s new reality,” Vox (Mar. 22, 2016).

Eric Schmitt and Alissa J. Rubin “ISIS Spreading in Europe, U.S. Intelligence Chief Warns,”
The New York Times (Apr. 25, 2016).

“The last battle,” The Economist (Apr. 16, 2016).

The post The Rise of ISIS: Great Decisions Spring Updates appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

На днях стало известно, что Исламское государство (организация запрещена в РФ) казнило россиянку Эльвиру Караеву. Неподтвержденная информация о том, что ИГ осудило беременную Караеву за шпионаж в пользу России, появилась несколько месяцев назад, но, видимо, исполнение приговора было отложено до момента, пока она не родила ребенка. Женщине было 28 лет.

/ Panamá, Finance, Spéculation, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud / Panamá, Finance, Spéculation, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud

Cette recension est issue de Politique étrangère (1/2016). Jean-Loup Samaan propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de William McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse: the History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State (New York, St. Martin’s Press, 2015, 256 pages).

En l’espace de deux ans, l’État islamique (EI) a généré une abondante littérature. Cet ouvrage propose de mettre en lumière une dimension peu ou mal comprise de l’organisation : sa rhétorique apocalyptique. McCants prend soin de souligner la particularité tant idéologique qu’opératoire de l’EI : le groupe est en effet le premier acteur depuis la chute de l’Empire ottoman à prétendre au statut de califat.

Il en ressort plusieurs clés de compréhension de l’EI. Tout d’abord, si l’EI est bien un descendant d’Al-Qaïda en Irak, sa stratégie s’en est dès le début distanciée. Ainsi, rappelle l’auteur, Ben Laden et Zawahiri ne proclamèrent jamais un califat qui devait, à leurs yeux, n’advenir qu’une fois les musulmans rassemblés contre l’impérialisme occidental. De plus, les attaques visant directement des musulmans en Irak et Syrie étaient jugées contre-productives par les leaders d’Al-Qaïda. L’EI, pour sa part, n’hésite pas à conquérir ses territoires par une campagne de terreur, et non de séduction, des populations.

Cela nous conduit à un phénomène particulièrement intéressant vers 2013-2014. L’émergence de l’EI et son ralliement par de nombreux djihadistes d’Al-Qaïda ont été entourés de débats internes et de controverses relayés par les réseaux sociaux, comme jamais cela n’avait été le cas dans l’histoire du terrorisme islamiste. Alors qu’Al-Qaïda prenait soin de contrôler les dissensions internes, les allégeances à Daech et les critiques à l’égard des autres mouvements (Jabhat Al-Nusra notamment) furent largement diffusées et discutées sur la toile. Il s’agit là aussi d’une dimension fondamentale de l’EI : son attention méticuleuse apportée à la propagande de masse.

Pour autant, le succès médiatique de cette campagne de l’EI et le flux sans précédent de combattants à ses côtés ne peuvent se comprendre sans la rhétorique apocalyptique qui l’entoure. McCants détaille celle-ci, en montrant comme la proclamation du califat, les références à « Rome », ou encore la mention de la ville syrienne de « Dabiq », sont autant d’éléments s’appuyant sur une croyance en la fin des temps annoncée dans les textes sacrés. L’auteur souligne comment cette eschatologie de l’EI émerge à la suite des révolutions arabes, qui ont elles-mêmes engendré de nombreuses théories populaires sur la fin des temps.

Dans le même temps, McCants souligne bien aussi la lecture cursive des textes sacrés par les idéologues de l’EI. Les crimes infligés et leur mise en scène sont ainsi justifiés par des références contestables à des hadiths tandis que toute contradiction possible est écartée – notamment sur l’interdiction de fumer qui ne trouve tout simplement aucun fondement dans le corpus religieux. Parce que ce messianisme s’ancre dans une lecture biaisée de l’islam, le discours de l’EI attire des masses de jeunes enclins à se sacrifier pour des idées, ou autrement fascinés par la symbolique apocalyptique.

Au-delà, la grande question qui subsiste à la fin de l’ouvrage est celle de la rationalité de l’EI : comment concilier la foi en une fin des temps islamique et la rationalité que suppose l’exercice du pouvoir sur des territoires ? La question est un défi tant pour l’organisation elle-même – qui cherche à préserver ses conquêtes – que pour la France et ses alliés – qui cherchent à détruire le groupe.

Jean-Loup Samaan

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

Al entrar en la segunda década del siglo XXI, el Ártico emerge como una región de inmenso potencial, creciente compromiso por parte de los Estados costeros y mayor atención desde todas partes del globo, incluyendo desde China e India. Esta transformación ha sido impulsada por el cambio climático, con el deshielo como la evidencia más palmaria del calentamiento global. Las nuevas rutas de transporte se han abierto, conectando el Atlántico y el Pacífico y allanando el camino para la exploración de recursos, desde la pesca hasta los minerales. Mientras tanto, Rusia ha emergido como poder regional después de la tormenta política del período post-soviético. Esta combinación podría estimular tensiones, rivalidades e incluso conflictos. Pero no es inevitable.

В последние месяцы ИГИЛ (организация, запрещенная в РФ) теряет доходы, людей и территории, однако по-прежнему остается самой мощной террористической организацией на планете. По данным, которые приводит «Нью-Йорк таймс», доходы ИГ от нефти упали с 80 млн долларов в месяц в середине прошлого года до 56 млн долларов в марте 2016 года. Территория под его контролем сократилась на 22% по сравнению с серединой 2014 года, а население — с 9 до 6 миллионов. В 2016 году иракские правительственные войска при военной поддержке США освободили Эр-Рамади и сейчас нацелены отвоевать Мосул, а сирийские правительственные войска при поддержке России освободили Пальмиру. Еще ряд городов и населенных пунктов отбиты курдами и другими воюющими группировками. ИГИЛ потеснен, но войну не проиграл: продолжает удерживать стратегически важные для его существования города и сохраняет мощную армию иностранных боевиков, по оценкам экспертов, насчитывающую около 27 тысяч человек.

(Own report) - The Mejlis, a Crimean Tatar organization - banned in Russia but supported by Berlin - has announced its plans to open official representative offices in Brussels and Washington this autumn, emphasizing particularly the importance of a seat in Brussels. The Mejlis, presented in the West as the only legitimate representative body of the Crimean Tatars, is actually only representing the pro-western tendency among them, while another tendency, with pro-Russian leanings, has for years explicitly rejected its policy. This split among Crimean Tatars hails back to the final years of the Cold War, when the long-time western ally - and subsequently Mejlis Chairman - Mustafa Jemilev supported radical demands for autonomy, while pursuing a tough anti-Russian course. When, in the 1960s, Jemilev began his campaign for Crimean Tatar autonomy in the Soviet-Union, he was given western support aimed at weakening the Soviet adversary from within. At the same time, Crimean Tatars, exiled in the Federal Republic of Germany, were pursuing the same objective - "Russia's national decomposition" - as it was referred to at the time. A Crimean Tatar, who had served as a main liaison to the Nazis, subsequently continuing his collaborationist activities in the Federal Republic of Germany, assisted them and, began in the 1950s, to also work for CIA-financed organizations in Munich.

Seules instances où les juges ont une expérience de l'entreprise, les conseils de prud'hommes sont menacés. M. François Hollande veut désormais plafonner le montant des amendes pour les délits patronaux, réduire les recours, faire payer les plaignants et remplacer les juges par des magistrats (...) / Droit, État, Inégalités, Justice, Travail, Néolibéralisme, Société civile - 2016/03

Après n’avoir, pendant longtemps, proposé aucune solution de rechange à l’approche « gestionnaire » du conflit israélo-palestinien privilégiée par le premier ministre Benyamin Nétanyahou, la laissant apparaître comme la seule option possible, le Parti travailliste relance le débat au niveau national en présentant un plan de séparation.

Nigeria has scored important successes against Boko Haram. The military campaign that President Muhammadu Buhari launched after his election last year is stronger and better coordinated. The insurgency is now less of a military threat, after seven years of conflict that have killed tens of thousands of people, uprooted millions, damaged local economies and cross-border trade, and spread to the Lake Chad basin states of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. However, as regional states and their international partners gather in Abuja on Saturday to discuss their strategy, Boko Haram remains a major security challenge requiring a coordinated response.

(Own report) - One of Berlin's government advisors is calling for Russia's expulsion from the Council of Europe. The Russian government's actions against the Crimean Tatars and its banning their Mejlis - a political organization - along with other measures, make it "no longer possible to justify continuing Russian membership in the Council of Europe," according to a current position statement published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). This demand is made at a time when the Crimean Tatars have been drawn into the spotlight throughout Europe, by the openly politicized Eurovision Song Contest (ESC). Whereas public perception of Crimean Tatars has been predominated by their 1944 deportation, their collaboration with the Nazis, which had preceded their deportation, has been obscured. As historians have ascertained, in 1942, "every tenth Tatar on the Crimean Peninsula was in the military" - on the side of Nazi Germany. Crimean Tatars fought on the side of the German Wehrmacht against the Soviet Union, excelling in the notorious "efforts to crush the partisan movement" and turned their Jewish neighbors over to the Nazis' henchmen. Already in the 1920s, leading Tatar functionaries had complained of a "Jewification" of their communities, in their protests against Moscow's resettlement measures of Jewish families. Later, exiled Crimean Tatars volunteered their services for the West's cold war efforts to destabilize Moscow. The Mejlis, which today is quite controversial among the Crimean Tatars, stands in this tradition.

Défaite cinglante au Venezuela, virage à droite en Argentine, crise économique et politique au Brésil, manifestations de rue en Equateur : la gauche est à la peine en Amérique latine. Les manigances de Washington ne suffisent pas à expliquer un tel essoufflement. / Amérique latine, Argentine, Brésil, (...) / Amérique latine, Argentine, Brésil, Équateur, Venezuela, Élections, Mouvement de contestation, Mutation, Politique, Société civile - 2016/01

יהודים ומוסלמים מצביעים ברגליים: הכותל קדוש ליהודים, אל-אקצא למוסלמים. כל המעוניין לשמור על השקט במתחם המקודש יכול ללמוד לקח מפסח 2016: שיתוף פעולה ותיאום יהודי-מוסלמי, ובמקרה זה בין ישראל לבין ירדן, מועיל לרגיעה וליציבות לא פחות, ואולי יותר, משיטור תקיף

Pour faire passer la réforme du code du travail, le gouvernement et les médias jouent sur deux tableaux. D'une part, ils dénigrent systématiquement ceux qui s'y opposent. De l'autre, ils brossent un tableau enchanté des accords au cas par cas et du référendum dans l'entreprise. / France, Démocratie, (...) / France, Démocratie, Droit, Entreprise, Inégalités, Syndicalisme, Travail - 2016/04

Faut-il considérer les matériels et logiciels estampillés Google, Apple, Amazon… comme des armes ? Les géants américains de la « nouvelle économie » sont intimement liés au ministère de la défense. / États-Unis, Armée, Défense, Entreprise, État, Informatique, Sécurité, Internet, Multinationales, Mutation, (...) / États-Unis, Armée, Défense, Entreprise, État, Informatique, Sécurité, Internet, Multinationales, Mutation, Personnalités, Recherche, Services secrets, Technologies de l'information, Technologie, Infoguerre - 2016/04

Comment un promoteur immobilier new-yorkais marié à trois reprises peut-il être aussi populaire dans le sud des Etats-Unis, bastion de la droite religieuse ? Réponse en Alabama, avec des militants du Parti républicain qui s'affrontent autour de la candidature de M. Donald Trump. / États-Unis, (...) / États-Unis, Élections, Extrême droite, Finance, Immigrés, Inégalités, Libéralisme, Médias, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Religion, Corruption - 2016/04