Diplomacy & Crisis News

Jean-Christophe NOTIN, Les guerriers de l’ombre. Taillandier, Paris, 2017
A la suite d’un documentaire réalisé sur Canal Plus par le même auteur, connu pour ses ouvrages sur les opérations militaires françaises (Afghanistan, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali…), ce travail dresse un portrait de treize agents de la DGSE, qui acceptent (anonymement, et avec toutes les précautions d’usage, cela va sans dire), de parler. Ils ont accompli des missions difficiles, dans la clandestinité. De quoi parlent-ils au juste, sans pouvoir se livrer totalement, sans trahir de secrets ? De leur recrutement, du métier, qui n’est pas ce qu’on en dit, de ses joies comme de ses difficultés, de la solidarité comme de la solitude, de l’aventure comme de la bureaucratie, des succès et des échecs, des déceptions (au sens français du terme…) et des bonnes surprises. De l’Afghanistan, aussi, qui sert de fil rouge à leur discours (et ils ne sont pas tous d’accord).
Après un certain nombre d’ouvrages de fiction (citons plutôt DOA et son Pukhtu Primo que la série SAS, qui ne semble pas dans le cœur des interviewés, en dépit de son succès de gare et de l’estime de nombreux décideurs…), après la série Le bureau des légendes, après la création de l’Académie du Renseignement qui avait pris l’initiative courageuse de plusieurs colloques ouverts (notamment sur le renseignement dans la Première Guerre mondiale), ce travail confirme le regain d’intérêt du grand public pour le renseignement en France, sans doute en partie, hélas, du fait des attentats récents. Il vise sans doute, lui aussi, à encourager des vocations, en démystifiant ou en répondant par avance à un certain nombre de questions.
L’exercice est utile, et participe de ce que le monde académique qualifierait, avec sa pompe, d’approche sociologique qualitative sur la base d’entretiens semi-directifs. L’échantillon en est forcément réduit ici, ce qui n’amoindrit pas le tour de force, de faire parler ceux dont le métier est de se faire passer pour un(e) autre. Et d’insister sur le caractère irremplaçable de l’humain, tant l’électro-magnétique demeure contournable. Leur témoignage est rare et précieux. naturellement, il ne règle pas tous les maux que l’on connaît en France : des études universitaires de renseignement (ou intelligence studies) à développer en dépit de quelques auteurs très productifs, sérieux et talentueux (Forcade, Laurent…) ; surtout, des moyens financiers limités pour le renseignement (les salaires suivent-ils les défis géopolitiques ?..) en dépit d’un réel savoir-faire, internationalement reconnu ; comme partout ailleurs, des améliorations organisationnelles à imaginer, etc. Il n’en demeure pas moins que le livre mérite d’être lu, et confirme la contribution régulière de Jean-Christophe Notin aux questions de défense.

Natalia Veselnitskaya (Facebook via Talking Points Memo/Kurir)

President Donald Trump’s Russia problems have multiplied with recent reports that his son, Donald Trump Jr., met with a Kremlin-linked Russian lawyer during the 2016 presidential campaign after he was promised damaging information on Hillary Clinton and told that this information was “part of a Russian government effort” to help his father in winning the presidency. These revelations are the clearest indication yet of possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian efforts to interfere in the election.

The meeting took place at Trump Tower in New York on June 9, 2016. Initial reports were that the meeting included Trump Jr., the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, and the Russian lawyer, Natalia (or Natalya) Veselnitskaya (Наталия [or Наталья] Весельницкая). It was later learned that the meeting also included Russian American lobbyist Rinat Akhmetshin (Ринат Ахметшин), thought to be a former Soviet intelligence agent; Russian American translator Anatoli Samochornov (Анатолий Самочернов), who has previously worked with Veselnitskaya; and Irakly “Ike” Kaveladze (Ираклий Кавеладзе), a U.S. citizen born in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.

The meeting was arranged by publicist Rob Goldstone at the request of his client, Azerbaijani-Russian pop star and businessman Emin Agalarov (Эмин Агаларов). Trump Sr. previously met Emin and his father Aras Agalarov (Араз Агаларов) at the 2013 Miss USA pageant in Las Vegas and Miss Universe pageant in Moscow, both owned by Trump, and in which Goldstone was also involved. A Russian blogger posted numerous photos of Trump, Goldstone, and the Agalarovs meeting in Las Vegas. Goldstone is also thought to have been present at the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower.

Emin Agalarov, Donald Trump, and Aras Agalarov (Life.ru)

Rob Goldstone with Emin Agalarov and Donald Trump (Facebook via The Stern Facts)

Aras and Emin Agalarov are respectively the president and first vice-president of Crocus Group (Крокус Групп), a real estate and property development company based in Moscow. Irakli Kaveladze is identified as a vice-president of “Crocus International” (Крокус Интернэшнл) residing in the United States, and was a subject in a 2000 U.S. government investigation into Russian money laundering in the United States.

Sometimes called the “Trump of Russia” and frequently described as a “Russian oligarch,” Aras Agalarov is one of the wealthiest men in Russia and a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In 2013 he was awarded the prestigious Order of Honor of the Russian Federation by Putin himself. Agalarov also owns a mansion in Alpine, New Jersey currently valued at just under $7 million, which he recently put up for sale.

Vladimir Putin and Aras Agalarov (Minval.az)

A former prosecutor, Veselnitskaya is currently listed as the “general director” or “managing partner” of a law firm in the Moscow suburbs called Kamerton Consulting (Камертон Консалтин), founded in 2003 by Veselnitskaya and her husband (or ex-husband) Alexander Mitusov (Александр Митусов). A former Moscow Region deputy chief prosecutor and deputy minister of transport, Mitusov is now vice-president of corporate and legal affairs for SG-Trans (СГ-транс), a leading provider of transportation services for petroleum and gas products throughout Russia and the former republics of the Soviet Union.

Veselnitskaya’s business in the United States stems from her attorney-client relationship with Russian businessman Denis Katsyv (Денис Кацыв) and his father Petr (or Pyotr) Katsyv (Петр Кацыв), who as Moscow Region minister of transport was the direct superior of Veselnitskaya’s husband Alexander Mitusov. In 2013, Denis Katsyv and his company, Cyprus-based Prevezon Holdings Ltd., were accused of money laundering in the United States in connection with the U.S. Magnitsky Act, enacted in 2012 to counter Russian corruption and human rights abuse. A case was filed against Prevezon in September 2013 by then-U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara for the Southern District of New York.

On behalf of Katsyv and the Russian government, Veselnitskya has been a leading figure in Russian lobbying efforts against the Magnitsky Act. “She was probably the most aggressive person I’ve ever encountered in all my conflicts with Russians,” says Veselnitskaya’s legal opponent Bill Browder, a former investor in Russia and a major proponent of the Magnitsky Act, “She is vindictive and ruthless and unrelenting.”

Veselnitskaya is also a close associate of Yury Chayka (or Yuri Chaika; Юрий Чайка), the Putin-appointed Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation (roughly equivalent to the U.S. Attorney General), noted with Veselnitskaya in Russian media for his opposition to the Magnitsky Act. Chayka seems to play a far more political and ideological role in Russia than his title would suggest. In addition to opposing the Magnitsky Act, he accused the pro-democracy opposition group Open Russia (Открытая Россия) of being a front organization for the U.S. State Department. Veselnitskaya confirmed to The Wall Street Journal that she has been in regular contact with Chayka on matters related to the Magnitsky Act.

Vladimir Putin and Yury Chayka (Current Time)

A 2015 documentary in Russian and English by the Anti-Corruption Foundation (Фонд борьбы с коррупцией) details corruption and abuse of power by Chayka, his family, and their associates throughout the Russian prosecutorate, including ties to Russian organized crime. Following release of the documentary, Aras Agalarov publicly defended Chayka in an op-ed to the Russian newspaper Kommersant. Russian opposition leader and founder of the Anti-Corruption Foundation Alexei Navalny (Алексей Навальный) criticized Agalarov’s defense of Chayka, noting Agalarov’s own corrupt practices and ties to the Putin regime. Veselnitskaya is also connected to Agalarov through her Moscow Region legal practice.

Rob Goldstone’s emails to Donald Trump Jr. initiating the meeting with Veselnitskaya named the “Crown prosecutor of Russia” as the source of the damaging information on Hillary Clinton that the Trump campaign would receive through Veselnitskaya. Since there is no such title as “Crown prosecutor” in Russia, it is believed that Goldstone was referring to Prosecutor General Yury Chayka. Chayka’s office has denied any involvement in the meeting.

Veselnitskaya and Denis Katsyv are also linked to Russian American lobbyist Rinat Akhmetshin and translator Anatoli Samochornov through their collaboration in lobbying against the Magnitsky Act with a group called the “Human Rights Accountability Global Initiative Foundation” (HRAGIF). Akhmetshin has been called a Russian “gun for hire” in Washington’s lobbying world, and HRAGIF has been the subject of complaints for likely violations of the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) over its unregistered work on behalf of Russian interests.

Casting further suspicion on the Trump administration for its Russian ties is the dismissal in May of the federal money-laundering case against Denis Katsyv and Prevezon Holdings, represented by Veselnitskaya. As noted, the case was formerly handled by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, who was fired by Trump in March. In May his Trump-appointed successor abruptly settled the $230 million case with Prevezon for only $5.9 million and no admission of guilt just two days before the case was scheduled to go to trial. On July 12 following reports on Trump Jr.’s meeting with Veselnitskaya, Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions to “demand answers” on the settlement.

Veselnitskaya denies any connections with the Russian government, and told NBC News that she neither had nor offered damaging information on Clinton to Donald Trump Jr. or others associated with the Trump campaign. Rather, she said, it was Trump Jr. and associates who solicited information from her. She added that she knows Emin Agalarov took part in arranging the meeting, but denied ever meeting him in person. For its part, the Kremlin claimed to have “no information” on Veselnitskaya nor knowledge of who she is.

The Agalarovs have also denied any involvement in Russian efforts to influence the U.S. election. The Agalarovs’ U.S. attorney, Scott Balber, told CNN that Veselnitskaya previously worked for the Agalarovs in her capacity as a Moscow-area real estate lawyer. Balber’s previous clients include Donald Trump and Russian uranium company Tenex in a 2015 case involving violation of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Rob Goldstone has also hired a lawyer, Bob Gage, “to handle Russia-related inquiries.” Donald Trump Jr.’s lawyer, Alan Futerfas, is being paid from Trump Sr.’s campaign fund.

The post Connecting the Dots Between Trump and Russian Lawyer Veselnitskaya appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n°2/2017). Laurence Nardon, responsable du programme Amérique du Nord à l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Walter A. McDougall, The Tragedy of U.S. Foreign Policy: How America’s Civil Religion Betrayed the National Interest (Yale University Press, 2016, 424 pages).

Professeur d’histoire et de relations internationales à l’université de Pennsylvanie, Walter McDougall a reçu le prix Pulitzer en 1986 pour son « histoire-politique » de la conquête spatiale. Il propose ici une relecture de la politique étrangère américaine sous l’angle de ce qu’il nomme la « religion civile américaine » (RCA). Le concept de religion civile, venu de Rousseau, a été appliqué aux États-Unis par Robert Bell, dans un article de la revue Daedalus en 1967.

Walter McDougall reprend les éléments religieux mis en avant par tous les dirigeants américains depuis George Washington, pour voir comment ces fondements protestants ont influencé la diplomatie du pays. Il distingue plusieurs périodes auxquelles, pour renforcer son propos, il attribue des noms issus de la théologie chrétienne (l’église « civile » est successivement expectante, militante, agoniste et triomphante).

Avec Washington et ses successeurs immédiats tel John Quincy Adams, la religion civile américaine est « classique » : la naissance des États-Unis correspond à un projet divin. Responsables du succès de ce plan, les dirigeants américains doivent ­rester prudents en matière de politique étrangère, comme le recommandent le discours d’adieu de Washington (1796), puis la doctrine Monroe (1823). Cette attitude se prolonge au lendemain de la guerre de Sécession. L’expansion vers l’Ouest est alors un autre ­facteur d’isolationnisme, constitutif d’une RCA « néo-classique ». L’auteur s’oppose ici à Robert Kagan, qui avait tenté de démontrer l’implication ­internationale des jeunes États-Unis dans son ouvrage Dangerous Nation de 2006.

La RCA « progressiste » apparaît dans les années 1890. Les ­progressistes pensent désormais que les États-Unis ont un devoir moral et religieux d’exporter la démocratie américaine. Ils sont soutenus par les intérêts économiques, qui souhaitent protéger les exportations par une marine forte et des bases militaires à l’étranger. Le ­déclencheur, sous McKinley, est l’insurrection cubaine contre l’Espagne. Le pic en est la participation des États-Unis à la Première Guerre mondiale sous Wilson. Ce dernier ne parvient pas à faire voter le Sénat en faveur de la Société des Nations, ce qui inaugure une période de repli à partir des années 1920 et jusqu’en 1947 (Walter McDougall considère en effet que la participation des États-Unis à la Seconde Guerre mondiale s’est faite à contrecœur).

La guerre froide et la lutte contre le communisme athée voient l’apogée de la mission religieuse des États-Unis dans le monde, avec les présidents Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy et Johnson. Seul Nixon, aidé de son conseiller réaliste Kissinger, tente de limiter les engagements extérieurs du pays. Il sera d’ailleurs évacué par les élites à la faveur du scandale du Watergate. Reagan est le plus grand président de cette période de RCA « néo-progressiste ». Avec la chute de l’Union soviétique, on peut croire que la religion civile américaine va désormais s’exporter dans le monde entier. Le 11 Septembre sonne le glas de cette espérance.

Comme on le devine au titre de l’ouvrage, McDougall est très critique de l’interventionnisme ­américain de l’après-guerre. Vétéran de la guerre du Vietnam, il adopte des positions plus réalistes. Son ouvrage, qui paraît alors que les États-Unis viennent d’élire un président partisan d’un repli nationaliste, prend le contre-pied d’analyses plus positives de l’exceptionnalisme américain, comme l’ouvrage de Walter R. Mead, Special Providence, paru en 2002.

Laurence Nardon

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United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today expressed concern about the situation in the Old City of Jerusalem, which has been the scene of escalating violence in recent days.

Wrapping up a four-day mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the United Nations humanitarian chief today urged the world &#8220not to forget the DRC,&#8221 and called for scaled-up relief funding to help millions of people suffering from violence, diseases, and malnutrition.

Yemen is facing the world&#39s largest cholera outbreak, the United Nations health agency today warned, with 5,000 Yemenis falling sick every day &#8211 the majority of them children and the elderly.

The United Nations migration agency today said that perhaps 80 per cent of Nigerian migrant women and girls arriving on Europe&#39s shores in Italy could potentially be sex trafficking victims, spotlighting the horrific levels of abuse and violence migrants face along their arduous journeys for a better future.

A new pilot project in Pakistan to register undocumented Afghan refugees &#8211 who up to now have been without identity papers and living in fear of being arrested or deported &#8211 would allow up to one million people to have legal status, the United Nations refugee said.

To meet the challenges of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), India should prioritize women&#39s empowerment and education, the United Nation&#39s development chief in the country said.

The United Nations health agency has warned that the spread of an HIV strain resistant to some of the most widely used medicines could undermine global progress in treating and preventing HIV infection if early and effective action is not taken.

Three displaced families have been killed when their makeshift shelter was hit in an airstrike in Yemen&#39s Taiz governorate earlier this week, the United Nations human rights wing said.

Déjà condamné, le 23 avril 2013, par la 17e chambre correctionnelle de Paris, pour « complicité de diffamation publique » après s'en être pris au Monde diplomatique, Bernard-Henri Lévy récidive. Il vient ainsi de consacrer la totalité de sa chronique hebdomadaire du Point (20 juillet 2017) à un texte (...) - La valise diplomatique

What Will The Department of State Become?

The State Department issued the report on an internal “listening survey” on July 5. The report is not public, but reports indicate that its first recommendation is to define a mission for the Department of State. It also addresses a host of other concerns, and current and past State personnel complain that the Department is being gutted, among other things. But the Department has had no continuity in its mission since the Cold War. In and of itself, the “Listening Report’s” first recommendation addresses the key question of U.S. diplomacy and foreign relations.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, tight cohesion around Containment gave way to issue-by-issue policy-making. Without that doctrine, FSOs became subject to office-chiefs’ parochial priorities, and their stances would inevitably contradict each others’ — and their previous work as they moved from post to post. Today not even the anti-terrorism mission gives clear guidance.

There are two special challenges to setting a State mission. First, today any person in the world might be the next hacker, dictator, suicide bomber – inventor or artist. Second, the definition of diplomacy, the Department’s expected expertise, analogous to Defense’s in the use of arms, is itself indistinct. State needs a clear function, in which it can even reach individuals, through today’s chaotic world.

A U.S. foreign policy mission will only endure if it rests on a nuanced knowledge of the tenets, nuances, and implications (including philosophical, political, and strategic) of our Declaration of Independence. This specialized knowledge should lie at the heart of a common professional identity, personally held by each U.S. diplomat. It could be imparted by a single institutional move — to shape new formative training for diplomats.

The Declaration is the base on which diplomacy works for Americans. Training must also provide a common grounding in world affairs disciplines, including military, economic, historical, and cultural, plus exposure to a broad range of American realities. But it now must impart fluency in our founding tenets as the bedrock capacity.

An analysis of the diplomats’ function, extracted from Jeremy Black’s History of Diplomacy, shows diplomats’ performance hinging on an understanding of their leader. To represent their nation, report on trends in their host country, and as needed negotiate or facilitate, they needed to know the person (for most of history, be it monarch or dictator) who embodied the nation. U.S. diplomats need to know 300 million people, all with unalienable rights.

America’s fundamental common feature is our explicit, deliberate founding on principle, which binds us regardless of complexity and disruption. The principle — of unalienable rights and government dedicated to secure them — is abstract and dualistic, so understanding requires reflection as well as recitation. But that passage is the focal point: it forms our founding civic creed. The Constitution, the Federalist Papers, and the Bill of Rights follow it, and refer to its terms. Our history can be seen as revolving around it. It created America’s nationality and defines the basis of our national interest.

Our diplomats must project the narrative of America’s founding creed, to governments and individuals, in all channels of discourse and in our policy formulation. Much as a major league pitcher can snap off a curveball or slider as needed, diplomats will need a mental “muscle memory,” to discuss, in direct response on any given case, how our principles apply, why they are valid, or how they benefit humanity. Diplomats who have internalized our narrative as professional reflex can voice and shape policy in its spirit, to set others’ perceptions by our lights.

Infusing this expertise in diplomats’ formative training will push it down to the lowest levels. The junior officer will have the same compass as an ambassador, so even improvised responses to unexpected issues will naturally fit our grand interest. Each diplomat will likewise share an innate sense of the essentials for reporting to Washington. In inter-agency processes, State representatives will be equipped to voice and apply America’s fundamental values for any policy decision.

Steeping our diplomats in our founding creed, and simultaneously imparting topical skills, will marry policy knowledge with America’s nature in a professional cadre. Such operational norms could give Americans comfort that our foreign policy reflects our nature. All Americans, whether they study the creed or not, share its values, so a mission based on it will respect any electoral mandate. State will take on an air of “America’s Desk,” our experts in the national interest.

Such a conception of U.S. diplomacy, carried by the diplomats themselves, would give clear orientation for policy and institutional arrangements.

U.S. foreign policy faces a new era that calls for new policies and practices. George Kennan, facing his own foreboding new era, made an observation I still find relevant: To survive, he said, the United States “need only measure up to its own best traditions.” Today, a new State embodying our founding tenets will ensure our best future.

The post The Department of State’s Listening Survey Calls For A Mission appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Amid the worst drought in nearly two decades in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the United Nations agricultural agency is calling for emergency food assistance, as well as irrigation and farming equipment, to help farmers get through the lean season.

The scales have tipped for the first time in the fight against AIDS as more than half of all people living with the HIV virus now have access to treatment, while AIDS-related deaths have nearly halved since 2005, according to a new United Nations report.

Expressing deep concern over a surge in tensions and violence around the holy esplanade of Jerusalem&#39s Old City, the United Nations envoy on Middle East peace today called for de-escalation of the situation.

Highlighting challenges facing South Sudan, a senior United Nations official today underlined that overcoming obstacles borne of a volatile combination of insecurity and political uncertainty is critical for the war-torn country to be put on the track to peace and stability.

As part of his 47th birthday celebrations, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Goodwill Ambassador and the actor playing the role of Jaime Lannister in the HBO series Game of Thrones, is calling on his friends, family and fans to help him raise funds to support UN climate action programmes.

Urgent action is needed now towards the meaningful participation of women in peace processes, as well ensuring their voices are heard in all aspects of society, the United Nations deputy chief told reporters in Abuja today as part of a first-ever UN-African Union trip focused on women, peace and security.

(Own report) - The compensation claims brought by descendants of victims of German colonial crimes in the former German South West Africa are threatened to fail, because the authorities in Berlin are obstructing the transfer of court documents. With their class action suit filed in a New York court, representatives of the Ovaherero and Nama peoples in today's Namibia are trying to win compensation for the crimes German colonialists perpetrated against their ancestors - particularly the crime of genocide. The Senator of Justice for the regional government of Berlin, Dirk Behrendt (Green Party), is refusing to transfer court documents his office has received from New York to the German foreign ministry - alleging that the lawsuit is inadmissible. This attempt to obstruct the lawsuit is only the latest in a series with which Berlin for decades has been attempting to silence descendants of the victims of German colonial and war crimes. Germany's main argument that, because Germany enjoys "state immunity" it cannot be sued by private individuals, has recently begun to unravel.