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My colleagues at CNA’s Russian Studies Program — Michael Kofman, Anya Fink and Jeff Edmonds — have written two excellent reports on Russian deterrence and escalation management. I contributed a bit to the research. The summary and links to the reports below is taken from Michael Kofman’s description of the research on his blog:

CNA’s Russia Studies Program recently produced two reports that discuss in depth the main concepts comprising Russia’s strategy for escalation management or intrawar deterrence, their origins in military thought, and the current state of concept development. The first is titled Evolution of Key Concepts, covering essential deterrence concepts, current stratagems for escalation management, the role of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons, types of damage, views on targeting, etc. The second key debates and the players within Russian military thought provides an intellectual road map to the conversation among Russian military analysts, strategists, and the players involved. To better socialize the findings from these research products I’ve decided to post their respective abstracts here, though I suggest those interested download the reports from the CNA Research site.

The first report on evolution of key concepts assesses the evolution in Russian military strategy on the question of escalation management, or intra-war deterrence, across the conflict spectrum from peacetime to nuclear war. Russia’s overarching approach to deterrence, called “strategic deterrence,” represents a holistic concept for shaping adversary decision making by integrating military and non-military measures. Key concepts in Russian military thinking on deterrence include deterrence by fear inducement, deterrence through the limited use of military force, and deterrence by defense. These approaches integrate a mix of strategic nonnuclear and nuclear capabilities, depending on the context and conflict scope. In a conflict, Russian escalation management concepts can be roughly divided into periods of demonstration, adequate damage infliction, and retaliation. Russian strategic culture emphasizes cost imposition over denial for deterrence purposes, believing in forms of calibrated damage as a vehicle by which to manage escalation. This so-called deterrent damage is meant to be dosed, applied in an iterative manner, with associated targeting and damage levels. Despite acquiring nonnuclear means of deterrence, Russia continues to rely on nuclear weapons to deter and prosecute regional and large-scale conflicts, seeing these as complementary means within a comprehensive strategic deterrence system. The paper summarizes debates across authoritative Russian military-analytical literature beginning in 1991 and incorporates translated graphics and tables. The concluding section discusses implications for US and allied forces.

The second report on key debates and players offers an overview of the main debates in Russian military thought on deterrence and escalation management in the post-Cold War period, based on authoritative publications. It explores discussions by Russian military analysts and strategists on “regional nuclear deterrence,” namely the structure of a two-level deterrence system (regional and global); debates on “nonnuclear deterrence” and the role of strategic conventional weapons in escalation management; as well as writings on the evolution of damage concepts toward ones that reflect damage that is tailored to the adversary. Russian military thinking on damage informs the broader discourse on ways and means to shift an opponent’s calculus in an escalating conflict. The report concludes with summaries of recent articles that reflect ongoing discourse on the evolution of Russia’s strategic deterrence system and key trends in Russian military thought on escalation management.

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On 20 April, the Committee onf Foreign Affairs in association with the sub-committees on human rights (DROI) and security and defence (SEDE) will discuss with the Vice-President of the European Commission/ High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for foreign affairs and geopolitical situation.

The discussion will follow the Joint Communication on the Global EU response to COVID-19 focusing on the EU role in combating the coronavirus crises on the international scene. It will address the measures and actions taken by the EU and its Member States in third countries, and particularly the countries in the EU's immediate neighbourhood. The discussion will also focus on the EU Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy 2020- 2024 due to be adopted by the Foreign Affairs Council.
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Source : © European Union, 2020 - EP

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EDA has launched a first call for papers from defence industry, academia and research institutes on the topic of Integration of military air capabilities in a changing context of the civil aviation sector in the framework of EDA’s upcoming Single European Sky Workshops.

The purpose of the workshop is to provide industry with a deeper insight into the Strategic Context Case (SCC) 10 (Integration of military air capabilities in a changing aviation sector) and develop a common understanding by gathering industry proposals on new R&D and validation activities needed within the Single European Sky (SES) domain.

This call for papers is part of a broader approach to SCC 10, and aims to initiate and consolidate cooperative projects in the following domains:

• Military access to airspace, in particular in a Single European Sky context. The aim is to improve, for existing and future manned and unmanned air capabilities, the ability to train and conduct security and defence missions particularly in peacetime, but also in crisis and conflict.
• Protect the confidentiality of mission critical information and ensure a resilient and robust data sharing network in the changing context of the civil aviation sector.
• Coordination with civilian aviation authorities and structures, infrastructures and procedures while maintaining military-to-military interoperability to enable the effective contribution to operations in multinational coalitions.
• The adaptation of Military AIR/SPACE C2 capability and Communication Navigation Surveillance (CNS) capability to the changing context of the civil aviation sector including the deployment of ATM technologies and the development of the U-Space concept.

The responses to this call for papers will drive the ideation of potential project proposals during the second formal workshop which will take place at EDA on 2 December 2020*.

How to submit 

• Download the call for papers
• Download the questionnaire
• Send your completed files to ise@eda.europa.eu
• Deadline for submissions is 16 October 2020.

Submissions are sought from a wide range of industries involved in ATM (Air Traffic Management)/SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research). Though responses to all questions in this call for papers are encouraged, submitters may develop answers to specific questions in greater detail based on their area of expertise.

Submissions will be judged on their innovativeness and relevance as well as ability to stimulate discussion on future ATM/SES in a military context. Participation in this call for papers is open to companies of any size as well as academic, research institutes and associations or groupings of industrial suppliers.

*The workshop will be subject to any recommendations put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Please check the EDA website for any updates.

The European Defence Agency's Steering Board has approved the launch of a specific EDA ad hoc project which will contribute to  the implementation of a Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) project aimed at developing a Deployable Modular Underwater Intervention Capability Package (DIVEPACK). Bulgaria, which leads a group of three PESCO participating countries involved in DIVEPACK (together with France and Greece), had formally requested the Agency’s support for moving this ambitious project forward.   The DIVEPACK project, part of the second batch of PESCO projects approved in November 2018, aims at developing an interoperable specialised modular asset called “DIVEPACK Unit”. The Unit will provide a comprehensive capability package (both as materiel and expertise) enabling a tailored response to the full spectrum of defensive (non-Special Operations Forces, SOF) underwater divers’ interventions, in expeditionary setting, both at sea and in inland bodies of water, in support of EU missions. It will focus on human centric integration of a wide range of diving and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles materiel, operated by qualified personnel, in a comprehensive capability package.   The capability will be based on an open plug-and-play architecture which will facilitate the versatility of response in the framework of EU CSDP operations and will provide a quick reaction capability, applicable to a broad range of underwater scenarios, both at sea and in inland bodies of water, except for special forces missions.  

 

Launch support  

EDA’s specific Category B project will serve as a preparation phase for the DIVEPACK PESCO project and deal with harmonisation of requirements, in particular the development and endorsement of the Common Staff Targets (CST), Common Staff Requirements (CSR), the Business Case (BC) and other relevant documents necessary to allow for a smooth acquisition phase afterwards. EDA will thus act as a facilitator and manager of the launch phase of the project.  

EDA’s Acting Chief Executive Olli Ruutu said: “EDA is delighted to take this ambitious and innovative PESCO project forward and to support its Member States. As the European hub for collaborative capability development, the Agency has the required expertise to help Member States in the implementation of their PESCO projects. The development of underwater control capabilities which contribute to resilience at sea and are based on new technologies such as unmanned systems, is one of the European Capability Development Priorities agreed in 2018. The DIVEPACK project will contribute to this priority”.  

Bulgaria's Deputy Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov said: “The DIVEPACK is the first joint project in the PESCO context coordinated by Bulgaria, which makes us proud and also ambitious. Its core purpose is to build up a range of specific defence capabilities, which will be fully aligned with the European Capability Development Priorities. The DIVEPACK units will be capable of executing versatility of underwater missions and tasks as part of EU CSDP and NATO operations. The first phase of DIVEPACK will be implemented within EDA’s  framework as a Cat B project and we believe that the Agency’s competences and experience in facilitating collaborative defence initiatives will provide indispensable support for the successful completion of the project. In pursuing coherence on EU level, we intend to submit a part of the DIVEPACK activities for funding under the Commission’s European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP).”

 

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Following calls for proposals launched by the European Defence Agency (EDA) in 2019, seven new defence research projects have been selected for funding under the Preparatory Action on Defence Research (PADR) for a total of more than €19 million.  

The seven selected projects focus on technologies with a high disruptive potential in the defence sector such as artificial intelligence and quantum technologies, as well as critical defence technologies for electronic warfare and interoperability standards for military unmanned systems.

The consortia that submitted the selected proposals consist of 65 leading-edge European system integrators, original equipment manufacturers, high-tech MidCap and SMEs and research institutes located in 15 EU Member States. EDA will now start Grant Agreement preparations with the consortia of the top-ranking proposals. The Grant Agreements are foreseen to be signed in the second half of 2020.

Background  

PADR implementation is run by the European Defence Agency following the mandate of a Delegation Agreement between the European Commission and EDA signed on 31st May 2017. By this agreement the Commission entrusts EDA with the management and implementation of the research projects to be launched within the PADR. The first PADR calls for proposals were launched in 2017 for 25 M€, followed by calls in 2018 for 40 M€ and subsequently in 2019.

The Preparatory Action on Defence Research is a concrete step aimed at assessing and demonstrating the added value of EU supported defence research and technology (R&T). The relevant results are expected to further deepen European defence cooperation, addressing capability shortfalls, and to strengthen European defence stakeholders.

More information

• Factsheet on selected projects
• EDA Webpage on PADR
• European Commission | Press Release: European Defence Fund: EU funds new joint research and industrial projects 

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The European Defence Agency today issued a call for applications from parties interested in participating in the 2020 edition of the ‘EDA Defence Innovation Prize’ contest rewarding companies and research entities who come up with innovative and ground-breaking technologies, products, processes or services applicable in the defence domain.

This year’s contest will reward innovative defence-related ideas addressing the area of innovative solutions/technologies for the countering of swarms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), specifically on the protection of static and dynamic land facilities and platforms.

Applicants are expected to propose ideas which, if implemented between now and 2030, would contribute to enhance Member States’ defence capabilities specifically related to:

• the detection and identification of swarms of small drones (many units acting in a coordinated manner); 
• mitigation measures incorporating the capability to intercept, disable and neutralise hostile vehicles;
• and the minimising of collateral damage.

The winning idea/concept will be worth 30,000€.
 

Reaching out to non-traditional defence innovators 

The contest is not only open to dedicated and specialised defence companies but to ALL types of industries and research institutions in Europe. The objective is to reach out to the widest possible spectrum of innovative developers and producers - especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) - as well as research organisations and universities which are usually not (or not directly) involved in traditional defence R&D activities. Applications from dual-use and civil/commercial innovators and researchers are even particularly encouraged.

The deadline for submissions is 4 September 2020 (5pm Brussels time).

The rules of the contest and the criteria for participation are available here. Information on how to apply can also be found in the contest documentation under the link above.

The prize winners will be notified not later than October 2020. The Defence Innovation Prize award ceremony is scheduled to take place at the EDA Annual Conference 2020, early December, in Brussels.
 

Background

EDA organises its Defence Innovation Prize since 2018. The previous editions rewarded the most innovative ideas or applications related to: - the integration of multi-robot swarming concepts in support of future defence capabilities in the area of Guidance, Navigation and Control (first part of 2018 call); - autonomous detection, identification and monitoring/sampling/analysis through sensor and platform networking in the area of CBRN protection technologies and techniques (second part of 2018 call); - the use of Artificial Intelligence in defence (2019).
 

More information

• Call for applications
• EDA Defence Innovation Prize webpage

 

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