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Middle East experts were as surprised as everyone else by the Arab revolts. Focused on explaining the stability of local autocracies in recent decades, they underestimated the hidden forces driving change. As they wipe the egg off their faces, they need to reconsider long-held assumptions about the Arab world.

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Why have the upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya followed such different paths? Because of the countries' vastly different cultures and histories, writes the president of the American University in Cairo. Washington must come to grips with these variations if it hopes to shape the outcomes constructively. This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.

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American CH-46 Sea Knight Utility Helicopter

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American M108 105-mm Self-Propelled Howitzer

American M107 175-mm Self-Propelled Gun

Although last winter's peaceful popular uprisings damaged the jihadist brand, they also gave terrorist groups greater operational freedom. To prevent those groups from seizing the opportunities now open to them, Washington should keep the pressure on al Qaeda and work closely with any newly installed regimes.This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.

The recent turmoil in the Middle East may lead to the Arab world's first sustained experiment in Islamist government. But the West need not fear. For all their anti-American rhetoric, today's mainstream Islamist groups tend to be pragmatic—and ready to compromise if necessary on ideology and foreign policy.

Not since the Suez crisis and the Nasser-fueled uprisings of the 1950s has the Middle East seen so much unrest. Understanding those earlier events can help the United States navigate the crisis today -- for just like Nasser, Iran and Syria will try to manipulate various local grievances into a unified anti-Western campaign.This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.

Revolutions rarely succeed, writes one of the world's leading experts on the subject—except for revolutions against corrupt and personalist "sultanistic" regimes. This helps explain why Tunisia's Ben Ali and Egypt's Mubarak fell—and also why some other governments in the region will prove more resilient.