ELIAMEP

President of ELIAMEP, Professor Loukas Tsoukalis wrote an article in Kathimerini discussing the result of the Greek election. This article was published on 21 September 2015 and is available here.

Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos analysed on Bloomberg how Greece deals with the refugee crisis. The article, which was published on 18 September  2015, is available here.

Alan Kurdi had been about the same age as my youngest son, Nicholas. In theory, both children were born entitled to the same basic rights to life, protection, food, shelter, education and play. But we as the international community tragically failed Aylan. Even more importantly, there are still millions of other children and adults in similar danger. By early September, the UN announced that 7 million people had so far been displaced in Syria from a pre-war population of 22 million, with over 4 million seeking safety outside Syria. Of those, 2.1 million Syrians were registered by the UNHCR in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, and 1.9 million were registered in Turkey.

Europe is trying to deal with the problem almost exclusively through the management of the migration/refugee flows, and has been engaged in a very complicated – and often unpleasant – discussion on burden sharing, asylum procedures, border protection, humanitarian assistance, the prosecution of traffickers and so on. All of this is extremely important and absolutely necessary, but we appear to be limiting ourselves to treating the symptoms and not the root causes of the problem. This current European approach can only work if the numbers of people crossing into the EU is brought to a much lower level. Otherwise, the hospitality of even the most tolerant European societies will very soon be tested.

Furthermore, the Schengen Agreement – one of Europe’s most tangible and widely recognisable achievements – is now faced with considerable, even existential, challenges. The limited enthusiasm of most EU member states, with the notable exceptions of Germany and Sweden, in making any meaningful commitment to a burden sharing agreement promoted by the European Commission is seriously testing the concept of a border-free Europe, the limits of European solidarity and the idea of common European policies. The additional concern about radicalised Islamists entering Europe disguised as refugees complicates the situation further at a time of rising xenophobia and islamophobia in some EU countries.

It is becoming urgent that in addition to migration management, the international community, especially the EU, focus its efforts on ending the Syrian conflict as soon as possible. This will only be possible if Russia and Iran support an international initiative. There are, of course, several important obstacles: relations between the West and Russia remain deeply confrontational as a result of the Ukraine crisis; despite the agreement between the P5+1 and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme, there is still a considerable lack of trust between the two sides; Europe and the US are extremely reluctant to put “boots on the ground” in Syria; other important regional players, including Turkey whose top priority is managing the Kurdish issue, have diverging agendas; ISIS is far from defeated despite military operations against it; the Syrian opposition remains highly fragmented, complicating efforts for a transitional government; and last but not least, the – certainly not unjustified – demonising of the Assad regime raises an important question about the ethics of any possible cooperation with such a regime.

The immediate priority should be the cessation of hostilities through the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force, the creation of a provisional government of national unity and beginning the process of reconstruction and reconciliation. To achieve this, a unanimous decision by the UN Security Council is required. This would need the immediate resumption of the Geneva-II negotiating process with the participation of all involved parties including, of course, Russia and Iran. Instead of Geneva, the conference could this time take place on the Greek island of Mytilini, so that world leaders could witness first-hand the results of their continuing inaction.

The aim would be the establishment of a large and heavily-equipped peacekeeping force as soon as possible, with the substantial or symbolic participation of military forces from all the P5 plus Germany. The military participation of key neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Jordan (perhaps under the aegis of the Arab League) and Turkey would be vital to alleviating any impression that a solution has been imposed by extra-regional powers. The UN forces’ mandate and rules of engagement should explicitly authorise it to use lethal force at will against enemy combatants – namely ISIS – in order to achieve its objectives within the shortest possible time.

“The additional concern about radicalised Islamists entering Europe disguised as refugees complicates the situation further at a time of rising xenophobia and islamophobia in some EU countries”

The creation and deployment of this UN force should be linked to the new provisional government, composed of the more moderate elements of the Assad regime and the opposition. Assad should be allowed to leave the country and take sanctuary in any country willing to make such an offer. The need to stop the fighting, eradicate ISIS and stabilise the country, thus saving countless human lives but also preventing the destabilisation of neighbouring countries and the whole region, should take priority over the trial of Assad and senior members of his regime for the crimes against their own people. Such a provisional government would stay in power for a minimum of two years, under the supervision of the P5 – with some role for the Arab League. If necessary, the period could be extended until such time as the conditions allow for safe elections. The extremely difficult and complex reconstruction and reconciliation process should be generously financed by the international community, ideally including Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries as well as Europe and the US. Financial assistance should also be given immediately to the neighbouring countries hosting large numbers of displaced Syrians, especially Lebanon, Jordan and also Turkey.

Because the US continues to see Asia as their main foreign policy priority, it should be up to Europe, which is being primarily affected by both the refugee crisis but also by the general instability in the eastern Mediterranean and the continuing confrontation with Russia over Ukraine, to lead the necessary diplomatic initiative that would prepare the ground for an agreement over Syria.

There are two options for reaching an understanding with Russia. First, a grand bargain; and second, seeking a success story based on common interests (or common threats). In the latter case, Syria fits perfectly, as the spread of Islamic extremism is a domestic concern for Russia. However aggressive and unconstructive Russia’s policy in Ukraine has been over the past two years, we should not lose sight of the big picture and the extremely high stakes in the case of Syria. There are no guarantees, of course, that Russia will respond to such an opening by Europe, but President Vladimir Putin has proved to be occasionally pragmatic in his cost/benefit analysis.

It is important to keep in mind that the additional arrivals to Europe, in comparison to last year’s numbers, have so far “only” been 230,000 people, and that has already been enough to almost overwhelm even the most developed European country, Germany. There are still several hundred-thousand more Syrian refugees – in addition to people from other conflict-ridden regions – waiting to come to Europe. In addition to practical short-term problems, the long-term consequences for social cohesion in several European countries may be difficult to imagine if the current refugee inflow continues unhindered.

This article was published in Europe’s World

Professor Anna Triandafyllidou wrote an article on European Politics and Policy  blog of LSE on ‘EU migration talks: What EU governments can do to help solve the crisis’. The article is available here.

The new book Cultural Governance and the European Union: Protecting and Promoting Cultural Diversity in Europe, edited by ELIAMEP Research Fellow and Marie Curie Fellow at Maastricht University Dr Evangelia Psychogiopoulou is now available by Palgrave Macmillan. The book examines the role of culture in the European Union’s (EU’s) law and policies and the ways in which cultural issues have been framed at the level of the EU. The analysis explores key features of the EU’s cultural action and policies, probing their strengths and weaknesses at a time of unprecedented challenges – the recent economic crisis, globalisation and digitalisation, changes in cultural production, distribution and consumption. This timely edited collection seeks to provide readers with a better understanding of the EU’s contribution to cultural governance. More information about the book can be found here.

Giving an interview on Bloomberg on 10 September 2015, Research Fellow of ELIAMEP Dr Angeliki Dimitriadi discussed the refugee crisis. You can read the article here.

The ongoing refugee  crisis in the Mediterranean has created fears  among policy-makers  and  security  practitioners  alike  that  the  Islamic  State  (ISIS)  will  use  and ‘exploit the refugee crisis to infiltrate the West’. This Briefing Note written by Dr Dimitris  Skleparis, presents a brief history of international terrorism in Greece; assesses current international terrorist activity in the country and the Greek authorities’ response to it; and proposes first-line and pre-emptive counter-radicalisation measures that would not undermine a humanitarian response to the refugee crisis.

Briefing Note 37/2015: The Islamist Threat amidst the Refugee Crisis: Background and Policy Proposals

Author: Dr Dimitris Skleparis

The present paper written by Dr Angeliki Dimitriadi, discusses the current refugee crisis from its outbreak to its evolution, attempts to set current EU responses in a contextual setting, from the early response to the Lampedusa tragedy of 2013 with Task Force Mediterranean to today’s proposal for the redistribution of 160,000 refugees, critically discusses European Member States’ responses and the resurface of ‘Fortress Europe’ and proposes priorities and measures, stressing the need for a global response to the current refugee crisis.

«ELIAMEP Thesis»: Europe’s dubious response to the refugee crisis

Author: Dr Angeliki Dimitriadi

The loss of over a thousand human lives in an effort to cross the Mediterranean has once again drawn media and political attention to the challenges that the EU is facing in governing irregular migration and asylum in the region. However, what seems to be still missing is our (experts’ and policy makers’) understanding of what drives people to put their lives at risk in search of a better future.The policy paper offers recommendations to the Greek government, policy makers and practitioners based on the results of the IRMA project.

You can download the policy paper here.

You can read here the article on the refugee crisis, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published in the Greek daily Kathimerini on 9 September  2015.

The new issue of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies is now available online. The issue is a special compilation of original research related to the Ukraine Crisis and its global and regional repercussions. The inspiration for the issue was a conference organised by ELIAMEP in January, entitled ’Back to the Cold War or forward to a stable relationship?’ and supported by NATO Public Diplomacy Division and the Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Due to the high quality of the work presented at the conference, ELIAMEP Research Fellow Panagiota Manoli prepared this special issue with contributions from the conference speakers.

In this issue, regional experts provide analysis of the role of Russia in Ukraine, governance in the Black Sea region, NATO-Russia security challenges, Russia’s relationship with the West, and the energy dimension of the Russia-EU-Ukraine relationship. A number of the articles are currently free to access for a limited time.

You can find here more information.

Associate Professor  at the University of Athens and  Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos wrote an article on Greek politics and opinion poll surveys in the Sunday edition of To Vima newspaper. The article was published on 6 September 2015 and is available here.

You can read here the article on the day  to come after the Greek election written by Professor Emeritus and Member of the Board of Trustees of ELIAMEP Theodore Couloumbis. This commentary was published on 6 September 2015 in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini. The content is available in Greek.

You can read here the article analysing the policy of Alexis Tsipras, which was written by Professor George Pagoulatos. The commentary was published on 6 September 2015 in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini and is available in Greek.

ELIAMEP Briefing Note 36/2015 explores whether Somalia could be stabilised in the future. It is written by Research Associate of Middle Eastern Research Programme  of ELIAMEP Mr Eleftherios Mastrotheodoros.

The euro and the Schengen zone have been two of the EU’s most tangible and widely recognizable achievements. Now, both are faced with considerable, even existential, challenges. The concept of a border-free Europe is being tested by the evolving migration and refugee crisis, with an extremely high number of people from Syria and other conflict regions trying to cross into European countries (mainly Greece and Italy) in an attempt to seek asylum in their final destination country in Northern Europe. The limited enthusiasm of most EU states—with the notable exceptions of Germany and Sweden—to undertake any commitments in the context of a burden-sharing agreement promoted by the European Commission is once more testing the limits of European solidarity and the idea of common European policies.

An additional concern about radical individuals entering Europe disguised as refugees complicates the situation even further at a time of increasing radicalization of societies in some EU countries and rising xenophobia or Islamophobia in others. Schengen, and the whole European experiment, will soon be dead unless Europeans act on the basis of the assumption that “we must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.” In the meantime, the fighting in Syria should stop. Talk to the Iranians and the Russians ASAP.

Dr Thanos Dokos

This article was published on Carnegie Europe website.

Research Fellow of  ELIAMEP Dr Filippa Chatzistavrou analyses the new political landscape in Greece in L’Express. You can read the article here.

Greek political instability has reached alarming levels, with the emergence of a new left-wing party in parliament defying Syriza.A new coalition government of national unity was needed, in order to start implementing the promised bailout reforms.But the call for snap elections by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, and then the launch of Popular Unity – a breakaway anti-austerity party led by former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis – have fuelled disunity.All reforms will be put on hold for about six weeks. Greece faces a key sequence of events during that time.

First, in line with the constitution, the main opposition parties will get a chance to form a new coalition government. The second-strongest party – centre-right New Democracy – is expected to fail. Then Popular Unity, launched on Friday and already the third-strongest party, will get its chance next week. Popular Unity will fail too, but Mr Lafazanis could wish for no better way to promote his party on the political scene.

Second, fresh elections will be held next month in a heated atmosphere. There is the now familiar division between supporters and opponents of the bailout. But on top of that, a new division will grow between Syriza voters still loyal to Mr Tsipras and Syriza voters who will shift their allegiance to Popular Unity.

Popular Unity will be entitled to ample space in the Greek media, during the election campaign, to argue that it, not Syriza, is the true anti-austerity party. It will pose as flag-bearer of the anti-austerity movement that swept Syriza to power after mass protests in 2010-2014. So Popular Unity will try to draw on the pool of disaffected Syriza voters and other Eurosceptic voters on the left. They oppose the additional public sector cuts, sweeping privatisation and restructuring of pensions, required under the bailout.

Most likely, the new party will get considerable support from the many voters – 62% of the total – who said “No” to the third bailout, in the 5 July referendum. Soon after that “No” vote Mr Tsipras performed a u-turn, accepting the austerity demands of Greece’s creditors as the price for keeping Greece in the euro. So now Greece is committed to the €86bn ($95bn; £61bn) bailout from its eurozone partners – the country’s third in five years. If the elections have no clear winner and Mr Tsipras – until recently leading in opinion polls – cannot form a clear majority government, complicated negotiations will follow.

It could be a protracted period, during which potential coalition allies of Syriza jockey for position. So Mr Tsipras’s resignation – in order to call snap elections – has triggered a process of disintegration in Syriza. He may have saved Syriza from a damaging internecine fight between supporters and opponents of the new bailout. But he has also diminished the chances for a quick economic recovery. Economic instability has been compounded by political instability.

Source: BBC website 

Research Fellow of  ELIAMEP Dr Filippa Chatzistavrou discussed  political developments in Greece on TV5. The interview is available here.

The 15th issue of the Middle East Mediterranean focuses on Greek entrepreneurship in the Middle East. It mainly deals with four sectors of economy : basic chemicals and raw chemical material, pharmaceutical companies, fish-farming and frozen fish, agro-technical products. The Middle East Mediterranean Report is available here.