European Union

AMENDMENTS 1 - 303 - Draft motion for a resolution 2015 Report on Turkey
Committee on Foreign Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

AMENDMENTS 304 - 545 - Draft motion for a resolution 2015 Report on Turkey
Committee on Foreign Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

DRAFT REPORT on The EU relations with Tunisia in the current regional context
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Fabio Massimo Castaldo

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

AMENDMENTS 1 - 120 - Draft report (PE575.014v01-00)
Committee on Foreign Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

 

Irish election results show that austerity measures, even when resulting in economic recovery, will be punished by electorates.

The results are in. In the first general election since 2011, the previous coalition government of Fine Gael (centre-right) and Labour, has been rejected by the Irish people. This time around Fine Gael and Labour, despite an uptake in the economy, suffered unprecedented losses, and the main opposition parties Fianna Fáil (centre-right) and Sinn Fein (left) both gained a number of extra seats, as well as an increased number of disparate independent candidates. Without a doubt, on a national level this election has been seen as a huge blow to Fine Gael and a direct consequence of the unpopular austerity measures imposed on the Irish people.

Thus, since last Friday, two things have been undeniably changed: firstly, the Irish political landscape and secondly, claims that austerity measures, even when they bring economic stability, can be popular amongst an electorate. While at the EU level, Ireland may be seen as the star pupil amongst the P.I.G.S., closer to home, voters either aren’t feeling the recovery or are embittered with how the austerity measures were imposed. Indeed, at the EU level, the result represents the recurring theme, witnessed recently in Portugal and Spain, of centre-right austerity imposing government’s being rejected in recent general elections.

Ireland: the star pupil?

Among the P.I.G.S. (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, the EU members that received rescue packages from the EU following the economic downturn in 2008) Ireland has been touted as the poster child for recovery; the country that has bounced back from the depths of economic crisis unlike any of the others. Accepted by the then Fianna Fail government, and implemented by Fine Gael and Labour when they were elected in 2011, the package was seen as necessary in order to protect against a destroyed real estate sector, unprecedented levels of unemployment, increased taxes, excessive household debt and mass emigration of the country’s youth. The Irish people, fresh out of a period of economic prosperity referred to as the “Celtic Tiger” years, were hit hard.

Of course, there was push back. The rescue package offered by the EU and the IMF was deemed excessively harsh by a huge proportion of the Irish people. The last number of years has seen numerous anti-austerity protests and the founding of the new Anti-austerity Alliance party. Political anoraks all over the country and across Europe are saying that the election results indicate that the Irish people are saying “no thanks” to the austerity imposed over the last five years. Admittedly, the minority coalition partner for the previous government, the Labour party, was decimated over the weekend. But so have all minor coalition parties in the last few elections. Although this weekend’s election results replanted Fine Gael with the highest number of candidates elected, overall the huge drop in support for the party shows that the people of Ireland seem to have had little faith in Fine Gael’s campaign slogan to – “keep the recovery going”. Arguably Ireland’s great comeback: it is returning as the star pupil of an EU-led economic recovery, when failing miserably at the bottom of the class just a few years ago.  Yet the reality is that although the statistics show a successful economic recovery, unlike anything seen among its fellow P.I.G.S., the political class have massively underestimated the lasting psychological damage that the bailout had on the Irish psyche. In the minds of many of the Irish people, the bailout has not been a success.

Ireland: the class swot?

Ireland may have been absent from school the day political idealism was taught. As a nation, Ireland has not produced the same polarised anti-austerity movements to the extent that have emerged in its fellow hard-hit countries. Ireland has had no equivalent of the Syriza party, no Jeremy Corbyn and no Front Nationale emerging strongly following severe austerity. Irish politics have never experienced such polarised political views. This is evidenced perfectly by the fact that the parties in power have see-sawed back and forth since the founding of the state, from the centre-right Fine Gael (the nearest equivalent being the UK conservative party) and the centre-right Fianna Fáil (the nearest equivalent also being the UK conservative party). Why is this? Why has Ireland experienced similar tough measures imposed on its people, and yet never experienced the same level of public outrage and pushback? Is it perhaps not that Ireland is the success story of EU austerity measures, but rather, that our nation’s cultural inclination is too reluctant to rock the boat and to disagree with teacher?

What does this election mean for the EU?

The general elections taking place in this island nation affect neither legislative processes in Brussels, nor broader issues such as the upcoming Brexit referendum to any large extent. Although a member of the EU since the 1970’s and a strong supporter of the European Project, Ireland is far from the position of countries such as France, Germany or the UK. Despite debates over the stability of this newly elected government (and whether or not we will be rewriting this post in a few months’ time…) this election does indicate that a precedent has been set in terms of how we measure the success of EU bailout packages. It’s now clear that austerity, even when it successfully regenerates an economy, is political suicide on a national level.

True, the European Union can now use Ireland as a successful example: an EU member state, once in dire economic straits, has accepted the government that imposed austerity and has emerged with good results with the help of an EU bailout package. Pigs can fly, it seems. Yet, it would be foolish for the EU to ignore what has just happened in Ireland: the price of instability and the bailout has been paid by national politicians, not by Brussels. EU imposed recovery has not been successful, but the EU as an entity does not have to answer for the strict measures it helped to impose. The EU would do well to heed this warning.

Yasmin Hamed and Cillian O’Donoghue

The European Parliament Ambassador Schools programme aims to raise awareness amongst young people in secondary education of the impact of the European Union in their daily lives. It offers an engaging and interactive format, training material for various levels, and is free of charge. On 15 January, secondary school teachers from all over Ireland came to the Parliament’s Information office in Dublin for the first ever Ambassador School Workshop.

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

AMENDMENTS 233 - 392 - Draft report on the EU in a changing global environment - a more connected, contested and complex world
Committee on Foreign Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

AMENDMENTS 1 - 232 - Draft report on the EU in a changing global environment - a more connected, contested and complex world
Committee on Foreign Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

The ‘Brexit’ debate has taken off in the UK in the ten days since David Cameron got his new deal at February’s European Council summit, with daily media coverage and social media from both sides swinging into gear. How the debate, and the polls, will evolve over the coming four months is unclear but so far various paradoxes are emerging.

1. Mainly an intra-government debate
To all appearances, media coverage to date suggests that the Brexit debate is essentially only a debate between two different camps in the Conservative government: a debate between mild eurosceptics in the British cabinet, including the Prime Minister, against a half dozen strong eurosceptics also in the cabinet.

The arguments between these two camps have already covered: conflicting views over the economic costs and benefits of EU membership, the legally-binding nature of Cameron’s EU renegotiation, how long it would take to establish a new UK-EU relationship after Brexit, whether there could be a second referendum, and an on-going row over whether Brexit-supporting ministers can see government papers pertaining to the referendum. Other debates are rumbling on about how long Cameron will stay as Tory leader, even in the event of a vote to stay in the EU.

The fact that this is a debate concerning the whole of the UK – all political parties and the UK public – is not one that is obvious from media coverage so far. Somewhat bizarrely, Cameron is also reported to be asking big business and big banks to hold back from expressing their support too strongly.

2. Labour voters are vital but Corbyn is absent
While Tory voters are, according to polls, broadly split on staying in or leaving the EU, Labour voters are more strongly in favour at a level of around 60%, as are the much smaller number of Liberal-Democrat supporters. Keeping Labour voters’ support and getting them to turn out on the day (so far polls suggest ‘leave’ voters are more likely to turn out) is crucial for the ‘remain’ side to prevail on 23rd June.

Yet Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has been more notable by his absence from the debate so far than for any strongly argued speeches in favour of the EU. When Corbyn does comment, it seems so far to be more to criticise Cameron than to make strong pro-EU statements.

Labour has launched its own pro-EU campaign led by former cabinet minister Alan Johnson, but he has so far had rather little presence in the media. While Labour grassroots supporters are already campaigning, whether Corbyn will start to make a strong case for Europe – having long been seen as more eurosceptic than supportive – is an open question. Cameron, meanwhile, is reportedly wondering how and whether to make a pitch to Labour supporters on the EU.

3. Only the Scottish leader is making a genuinely European argument
Ironically, in Corbyn’s absence, the only really visible opposition leader making the pro-EU argument for the UK is the pro-independence Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

In a wide-ranging speech on 29th February, Sturgeon showed that she is a genuine European, concerned about the big challenges facing the EU, from the failed and failing austerity policies of the eurozone to the lack of solidarity, compassion and strategic leadership over the refugee crisis. Sturgeon’s speech combined a constructive critique of the current EU crisis with a set of social, economic and political reasons for staying in the EU.

It was the sort of speech that Cameron will not give, determined as he is to focus on the ‘special treatment’ he got for the UK, and on the economic case for remaining in. It was also the sort of speech Corbyn should give but seems unwilling and unable to.

4. The ‘Out’ side have momentum but are split
The opinion polls range from significant leads for the ‘remain’ camp – especially in phone rather than internet polls – to many suggesting the two sides are very close; the most recent poll of polls from NatCen puts it at 51% for remaining in, 49% for Brexit.

The ‘out’ side, as has been widely acknowledged, tend to have more passion and emotion. Yet for now, the ‘leave’ side remains split into two main camps: ‘Leave.EU’ supported by UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and ‘Vote Leave’, supported by UKIP’s only MP, Douglas Carswell, and also by Boris Johnson amongst other Tories.

Whether these two sides will resolve their split, and which will be recognised by the Electoral Commission as the lead campaign is unclear. The split will undermine coherence in ‘leave’ arguments and campaigning, though how much this will impact on the polls is unclear.

5. The Referendum won’t resolve Tory splits over the EU
It is widely acknowledged that David Cameron called the referendum in an attempt to handle the continuing split in the Tory party over Europe. Yet the referendum, whatever the outcome, looks like doing no such thing.

A vote to leave would probably be quite close and, in the face of ‘remain’ votes in Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Wales, would unleash a political and constitutional crisis across the UK. Whether the Tory party would split at this point is an open question. A vote to ‘remain’, unless it is of the order of 60%:40%, is unlikely to resolve Tory divisions on the matter and will leave an embittered party and a split cabinet.

6. Only the SNP are visibly contingency-planning for Brexit, yet ‘indyref2’ is not guaranteed
With a Brexit vote a possibility, contingency planning – both for the immediate days after such a vote and for the months ahead – would seem vital. Yet any such planning is clearly being kept closely under wraps for now, and civil servants appear to have been told not to do any such planning.

Nicola Sturgeon has said a ‘leave’ vote would make a second independence referendum, ‘indyref2’, almost a certainty, and it is clear the SNP are doing some behind-closed-doors strategising. Yet whether the SNP moves rapidly to a second referendum in such circumstances will depend on how much the polls shift towards support for independence, and on the evolution of the resulting political crisis in the UK after a Brexit vote.

For now, what Cameron or Corbyn would do in the face of a Brexit vote is quite unknown. Cameron would surely have to resign, opening the question both of who would be the new Tory leader, and what sort of future relations with the EU the Tories would argue for. Corbyn – and Labour – will also need to have a political position on what comes next, including on Scottish independence, yet if such planning is under way inside Labour, it is well hidden.

An evolving debate
The UK referendum debate has several months to go. If the paradoxes outlined here remain, it will be a debate where pro-EU political, rather than economic, arguments get little attention, and it will be a debate dominated by a split governing party with Labour struggling to be heard. Even a split ‘leave’ side can only benefit from most of these paradoxes.

IMAGE CREDIT: CC / FLICKR – Number 10

 

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EU Finance Ministers of the eurozone meet in Brussels on 11 February 2016 to exchange views on the ongoing implementation of Greece's economic adjustment programme, focusing on the reforms required for the successful completion of the first review. The Cyprus programme, due to expire on 31 March, and the discussion on the transparency of Eurogroup meetings are also on the agenda.

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EU Ministers of Employment, Social Affairs, Consumer Protection, Health and Equal Opportunities (EPSCO) meet on 7 March 2016 in Brussels to hold a policy debate on the 2016 European Semester on the basis of an employment committee contribution on labour market segmentation and contractual arrangements. The Council is also discussing the expected new skills agenda.

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After months of wrangling it is hoped that the summit between the EU member states and Turkey on Monday will provide a joint response to the refugee problem. EU Council President Donald Tusk has visited several Balkan states and Turkey for exploratory talks ahead of the meeting. But at this stage no one is expecting a breakthrough at the summit.

EU Council President Donald Tusk has warned "illegal economic migrants" against coming to Europe. He said that the Schengen rules would enter into force again and refugees would be stopped at the EU's external borders. Is this appeal a good move?