The world faces a stark and urgent choice between democracy and the lure of populist demagogues, xenophobia and division, Barack Obama told the United Nations General Assembly last month.
The American President is right. The world is divided. Times are rough for liberal democracies and for liberal democrats. Everywhere you look, tough-talking guys and girls are in the ascendant.
Once, the threat came from nasty authoritarian regimes in far-off lands. But those challenging liberal democracy today are no longer “out there”. They are entrenched deep inside “mature” Western democracies.
The Republican candidate in the United States presidential election, Donald Trump, is upending all norms of liberal political discourse. His Democratic opponent for the White House, Hillary Clinton, may have got a boost following last week’s television debate, but with two unpredictable TV debates and five volatile weeks ahead, Trump could soon be taking his explosive brand of xenophobia and isolationism into the Oval Office.
“Many young people seem to think it would be nice to have a “strong chief” or a “big man” with a simple message and easy solutions”
Here in Europe, Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, leads his Visegrád bloc allies in proclaiming a belief in “illiberal democracy”. While many in the West may see the results of Sunday’s referendum on EU refugee quotas as a defeat for Orbán, the “strongman” himself has shrugged off the embarrassing outcome and vowed to insert the result into Hungary’s constitution.
Western Europe isn’t doing at all well either. The result of the Brexit referendum showed the power of a simple and powerful (but misleading) slogan. With elections coming up in many European countries next year, populists like France’s Marine Le Pen, Dutchman Geert Wilders and Germany’s AFD leader Frauke Petry are snapping at the heels of the political establishment.
Their xenophobic, anti-Muslim and anti-Europe message strikes a chord with angry men and women who feel uncertain and uneasy in the face of change. Le Pen is expected to do exceptionally well next year, and the AFD has already made massive gains in recent regional elections in Germany.
Unsurprisingly, liberal democrats are feeling depressed. At a recent symposium in the European Parliament to mark the “International Day of Democracy”, the mood was sober, self-critical and reflective. Gone were the self-congratulatory speeches and back-slapping that would have marked such occasions in the past.
There was consensus that almost three decades after Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the “End of History” and the victory of Western liberal democracy as the best form of government, liberal democracy, human rights and democratic values are increasingly being questioned and challenged.
In the West, surveys show a fall in the level of support for democracy among young people. Many seem to think it would be nice to have a “strong chief” or a “big man” with a simple message and easy solutions.
There is agreement that a toxic mix of slowing economies, austerity, inequality and unemployment is making people ever more suspicious of politicians. There is a widening gap between the political classes and the electorate. And as political parties lose credibility and relevance, populists step into their space to start spinning their tales of woe and hate.
Let’s worry – but not despair.
First, those who believe in liberal democracy need to be as stubborn as Angela Merkel and as persistent as Hillary Clinton. They must stand up and be counted and fight for what they believe in.
“The EU has to get serious about tackling the danger posed by Orbán and his band”
They must understand, connect and engage with those who disagree with them – but they also be proud of their message. Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has shown that there is nothing wrong with being open and tolerant or spreading “soft” messages of peace, love and human rights.
Buying into the populists’ poisonous rhetoric – as many mainstream politicians, such as French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy, are doing across Europe – just amplifies their power, voice and attraction.
There is also a message in this for the European Union. The EU has to get serious about tackling the danger posed by Orbán and his band. It’s important not only for the state of democracy in Europe, but also for the EU’s standing in the world.
The EU can hardly criticise and sanction foreign autocrats if it remains unwilling or unable to take any real action against those posing a danger to democracy in Europe itself.
Finally, democracy is not for the faint-hearted. It does not stop unscrupulous politicians, liars and fear-mongers from winning elections. A government of the people, by the people, for the people requires strong democratic institutions, checks and balances, and the rule of law.
But above all, it needs politicians whose belief in liberal democracy is backed up with commitment, courage and conviction.
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Two weeks ago in New York, I underlined to leaders in the United Nations that today's conference is a unique opportunity for the rest of the world to show that it cares about supporting a stable Afghanistan. This is why I am very glad to welcome 75 countries and 25 international organisations here this morning. And I especially want to greet President Ghani, Chief Executive Abdullah and all the representatives of the Afghan government who join us as co-hosts.
In today's world, responsible nations face many serious challenges at the same time. Despite this, the interest and level of engagement in Afghanistan show that the international community's commitment remains strong, even after 15 years.
As of 2017, the EU and its Member States will be the largest donor of development assistance to Afghanistan. We will be supporting international efforts and local capacity building with around 1.3 billion euros this year, and will maintain this effort until 2020. More than 4,100 EU nationals are assisting local security forces, primarily through the NATO-led Operation Resolute Support, but also through the EU's police training mission in Kabul.
These contributions reflect a strategy for a self-reliant Afghanistan, built on security, democracy, economic development and the rule of law.
In many ways the strategy is succeeding, thanks to the joint efforts of the Afghan authorities and international partners. To give a few examples. In 2001, only one million children were in school and almost all of those were boys. Today, more than 9 million children, nearly 40 per cent of them girls, are enrolled. During the same period, access to primary healthcare has increased from 9% of the population to more than 57%. And reform actions have been overall encouraging, especially in the area of public finance management, and in other sectors including justice, anti-corruption and human rights. More must now be done to make these things a reality in everyday life in Afghanistan.
All of us need to be very pragmatic over the coming months. Without our vigilance and support, Afghanistan could easily slide backward. Violent extremism, narcotics and political factionalism remain ever-present enemies of the country's future. Too many Afghans live below the poverty line. Too many see no future for themselves in Afghanistan. This is why we will focus today on a new Afghan National Peace and Development Framework, solid indicators to measure progress over the next two years, and new national priority programmes. At the same time, we must not ignore the issue of security. It remains the most important component for ensuring the success of all initiatives.
To the countries from the region gathered here today, we want to underline that Afghanistan will overcome the vicious cycle of fragility, poverty and violent extremism only with the help and co-operation of its neighbours. Financial support is very welcome but far more important is to support the efforts of those pushing for peace. An end to the climate of conflict will bring benefits to every single country in the region, also economically. Therefore I appeal to every country to act responsibly in the interests of a stable Afghanistan.
Europe wants to see the Afghan reform process accelerate and become more robust, for the good of the people of Afghanistan. Political stability, peace and security are essential for economic development to take hold. Then, security and prosperity begin to re-inforce each other in a virtuous cycle. We have experienced this in Europe in our postwar history. To get to that situation in Afghanistan, we need a viable peace process, reform of the judiciary and - in time - proper parliamentary elections. We need stronger state institutions. That is why the European Union and Afghanistan have signed a State Building contract worth 200 million euros to support stability and good governance in the country.
No global challenge is more divisive or emotionally loaded than the issue of migration, whether we are speaking of refugee protection, internally displaced persons or irregular economic migrants. EU countries are doing the most to support humanitarian relief efforts for internally displaced persons; the most to help host communities support refugees in the region; and are leading the West in the care of asylum seekers. We do not expect praise for this. But we do expect sending countries to take back irregular economic migrants, in line with international standards and obligations. That is why I want to thank the Afghan government for its courage in agreeing a way forward to manage migration fairly in co-operation with the European Union. We will support this agreement with money and job-creation programmes to reintegrate returning migrants to the benefit of their local communities.
The people of Afghanistan are at a crossroads. The Afghan government and international community are holding the signpost. One road leads back to violence, endemic poverty and regional instability. The other leads to self-sufficiency, prosperity and a new generation of healthy, educated Afghan girls and boys. The Afghan people have suffered enough; they deserve peace, security and the freedom to plan a common future in their own country.
Unlike some, I do not believe that the Afghans are doomed to repeat a troubled history over and over. As the great poet Rumi - who the Afghans call Jalāl ad-Dīn Balkhī - once said: "Yesterday is gone and its tale told. Today new seeds are growing.”
I wish everyone a good conference and that we will plant many new seeds for Afghanistan. Thank you.